Presented by Jawoo Koo, IFPRI at the Africa RISING–CSISA Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Meeting, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-13 November 2013

1. CROP MODELING FRAMEWORK
FOR STRATEGIC DECISIONS
HarvestChoice Approach:
Grid-based SSA-wide Crop Modeling System
Jawoo Koo, IFPRI
Africa RISING–CSISA Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Meeting,
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-13 November 2013

2. Let’s talk…
1. Crop modeling approach in general
2. HarvestChoice approach
3. Limitations

3. *DSSAT Cropping System Model Ver. 4.0.2.000
May 21, 2009; 16:32:33
*RUN
1
: RAINFED LOW NITROGEN
*DSSAT Cropping System Model Ver. 4.0.2.000
May 21, 2009; 16:32:33
MODEL
: MZCER040 - MAIZE
EXPERIMENT
: UFGA8201 MZ NIT X IRR, GAINESVILLE 2N*3I
*RUN
1
: RAINFED LOW NITROGEN
TREATMENT *DSSAT Cropping LOW NITROGEN Ver. 4.0.2.000
1 10: RAINFED System Model
May 21, 2009; 16:32:33
MODEL
: MZCER040 - MAIZE
CROP
CULTIVAR : McCurdy 84aa
ECOTYPE :IB0002
9: MAIZE
EXPERIMENT
: UFGA8201 MZ NIT X IRR, GAINESVILLE 2N*3I
STARTING DATE 8: 1
*RUN
FEB 25 1982RAINFED LOW NITROGEN
:
TREATMENT 1
: RAINFED LOW NITROGEN
PLANTING DATE 7: FEB 26 1982MZCER040 - MAIZE 7.2
MODEL
:
PLANTS/m2 :
ROW SPACING : 61.cm
CROP
: MAIZE
CULTIVAR : McCurdy 84aa
ECOTYPE :IB0002
WEATHER
EXPERIMENT
: UFGA
1982UFGA8201 MZ NIT X IRR, GAINESVILLE 2N*3I
:
6
STARTING DATE : FEB 25 1982
SOIL
TREATMENT 1
:
TEXTURE :
Yield : IBMZ910014 RAINFED LOW NITROGEN - Millhopper Fine Sand
5
PLANTING DATE : FEB 26 1982
PLANTS/m2 : 7.2
ROW SPACING : 61.cm
(t/ha)
SOIL INITIAL C : DEPTH:180cmMAIZE H2O:160.9mm NO3:: McCurdy 84aa
CROP
: EXTR.
CULTIVAR
2.5kg/ha NH4: 12.9kg/ha :IB0002
ECOTYPE
WEATHER 4
: UFGA
1982
WATER BALANCE : IRRIGATE : FEB 25 1982
STARTING DATE ON REPORTED DATE(S)
SOIL
: IBMZ910014
TEXTURE :
- Millhopper Fine Sand
3
IRRIGATION PLANTING DATE : FEB 26 1982
:
13 mm IN
1 APPLICATIONS
PLANTS/m2 : 7.2
ROW SPACING : 61.cm
SOIL INITIAL C : DEPTH:180cm EXTR. H2O:160.9mm NO3: 2.5kg/ha NH4: 12.9kg/ha
NITROGEN BAL. 2: SOIL-N & : UFGA
WEATHER
N-UPTAKE 1982
SIMULATION; NO N-FIXATION
WATER BALANCE : IRRIGATE ON REPORTED DATE(S)
N-FERTILIZER
SOIL 1:
116 : IBMZ910014 3 APPLICATIONS
kg/ha IN
TEXTURE :
- Millhopper Fine Sand
IRRIGATION
:
13 mm IN
1 APPLICATIONS
RESIDUE/MANURE 0:INITIAL C :: DEPTH:180cm ;EXTR. H2O:160.9mm NO3: APPLICATIONS
SOIL INITIAL
1000 kg/ha
0 kg/ha IN
0 2.5kg/ha NH4: 12.9kg/ha
NITROGEN BAL. 0 : SOIL-N & N-UPTAKE SIMULATION; NO N-FIXATION
200
ENVIRONM. OPT. : BALANCE 500.00 100
WATER DAYL=
: IRRIGATE ON REPORTED DATE(S) 0.00 TMIN=
SRAD= 150 0.00 TMAX=
0.00
N-FERTILIZER
:
116 kg/ha IN
3 APPLICATIONS
IRRIGATION
RAIN=
: Fertilizer (kg[N]/ha)=mm IN
0.00 CO2
13 R330.00 1 APPLICATIONS WIND=
DEW =
0.00
0.00
RESIDUE/MANURE : INITIAL : 1000 kg/ha ;
0 kg/ha IN
0 APPLICATIONS
SIMULATION NITROGEN BAL. :Y SOIL-N & N-UPTAKE SIMULATION; :N N-FIXATION
OPT : WATER
: NITROGEN:Y N-FIX:N PHOSPH NO PESTS :N
ENVIRONM. OPT. : DAYL=
0.00 SRAD=
0.00 TMAX=
0.00 TMIN=
0.00
N-FERTILIZER :C ET 116 kg/ha IN
PHOTO
:
:R INFIL:S 3 APPLICATIONS
HYDROL :R SOM
:G
RAIN=
0.00 CO2 = R330.00 DEW =
0.00 WIND=
0.00
MANAGEMENT RESIDUE/MANURE : INITIAL : :R1000 kg/ha ;
OPT : PLANTING:R IRRIG
FERT :R RESIDUE:N kg/ha IN
0 HARVEST:M WTH:M
0 APPLICATIONS
SIMULATION OPT : WATER
:Y NITROGEN:Y N-FIX:N PHOSPH :N PESTS :N
*SUMMARY OF ENVIRONM. GENETIC DAYL= PARAMETERS
SOIL AND OPT. : INPUT
0.00 SRAD=
0.00 TMAX=
0.00 TMIN=
0.00
PHOTO
:C ET
:R INFIL:S HYDROL :R SOM
:G
RAIN=
0.00 CO2 = R330.00 DEW =
0.00 WIND=
0.00
MANAGEMENT OPT : PLANTING:R IRRIG
:R FERT :R RESIDUE:N HARVEST:M WTH:M
SOIL LOWER UPPER
SIMULATION SAT : WATER
OPT EXTR INIT:Y ROOT
NITROGEN:Y N-FIX:N PHOSPH :N PESTS :N
BULK
pH
NO3
NH4
ORG
*SUMMARY OF SOIL AND GENETIC INPUT PARAMETERS
DEPTH LIMIT LIMIT
SW
PHOTO SW:C DIST
SW
ET
DENS INFIL:S HYDROL :R SOM C :G
:R
cm
cm3/cm3
MANAGEMENT OPT : PLANTING:R IRRIG g/cm3 FERT :R ugN/g ugN/g HARVEST:M WTH:M
cm3/cm3
cm3/cm3
:R
RESIDUE:N
%
SOIL LOWER UPPER
SAT EXTR INIT
ROOT
BULK
pH
NO3
NH4
ORG
------------------------------------------------------------------------------*SUMMARY OF SOIL AND GENETIC INPUT PARAMETERS
DEPTH LIMIT LIMIT
SW
SW
SW
DIST
DENS
C
0- 5 0.026 0.096 0.230 0.070 0.086
1.00
1.30
7.00
0.10
0.50
2.00
cm
cm3/cm3
cm3/cm3
cm3/cm3
g/cm3
ugN/g ugN/g
%
5- 15 0.025 SOIL LOWER UPPER 0.086 EXTR INIT
0.086 0.230 0.061 SAT
1.00
1.30ROOT
7.00BULK
0.10 pH
0.50 NO3
1.00 NH4
ORG
------------------------------------------------------------------------------15- 30 0.025DEPTH LIMIT LIMIT 0.086
0.086 0.230 0.061
SW
SW
0.70 SW
1.40DIST
7.00DENS
0.10
0.50
1.00
C
0- 5 0.026 0.096 0.230 0.070 0.086
1.00
1.30
7.00
0.10
0.50
2.00
30- 45 0.025 cm
0.086cm3/cm3 0.061 0.086
0.230
cm3/cm3
0.30
cm3/cm3
1.40
7.00
g/cm3
0.10
0.50
ugN/g ugN/g
0.50
%
5- 15 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086
1.00
1.30
7.00
0.10
0.50
1.00
45- 60 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086
------------------------------------------------------------------------------0.30
1.40
7.00
0.10
0.50
0.50
15- 30 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086
0.70
1.40
7.00
0.10
0.50
1.00
60- 90 0.0280- 5 0.026 0.096 0.230 0.070 0.086
0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076
0.05
1.451.00
7.001.30
0.107.00
0.600.10
0.100.50
2.00
30- 45 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086
0.30
1.40
7.00
0.10
0.50
0.50
90-120 0.0285- 15 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086
0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076
0.03
1.451.00
7.001.30
0.107.00
0.500.10
0.100.50
1.00
45- 60 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086
0.30
1.40
7.00
0.10
0.50
0.50
120-150 0.029 0.1300.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086
15- 30 0.230 0.101 0.130
0.00
1.450.70
7.001.40
0.107.00
0.500.10
0.040.50
1.00
60- 90 0.028 0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076
0.05
1.45
7.00
0.10
0.60
0.10
150-180 0.070 0.2580.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086
30- 45 0.360 0.188 0.258
0.00
1.200.30
7.001.40
0.107.00
0.500.10
0.240.50
0.50
90-120 0.028 0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076
0.03
1.45
7.00
0.10
0.50
0.10
45- 60 0.025 0.086 0.230 0.061 0.086
0.30
1.40
7.00
0.10
0.50
0.50
120-150 0.029 0.130 0.230 0.101 0.130
0.00
1.45
7.00
0.10
0.50
0.04
TOT-180
6.2 22.20.028 0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076 kg/ha-->1.45 2.57.00
60- 90
45.3 16.1 21.4 <--cm
0.05
12.90.10
870800.60
0.10
150-180 0.070 0.258 0.360 0.188 0.258
0.00
1.20
7.00
0.10
0.50
0.24
SOIL ALBEDO 90-120 0.028 0.090 0.230 0.062 0.076
: 0.18
EVAPORATION LIMIT : 2.000.03
1.45
MIN. 7.00
FACTOR 0.10
: 1.000.50
0.10
RUNOFF CURVE # :60.00
120-150 0.029 0.130 0.230 RATE
DRAINAGE 0.101 0.130
: 0.650.00
1.45
FERT.7.00
FACTOR0.10
: 0.800.50
0.04
TOT-180
6.2 22.2 45.3 16.1 21.4 <--cm
- kg/ha-->
2.5
12.9 87080
150-180 0.070 0.258 0.360 0.188 0.258
0.00
1.20
7.00
0.10
0.50
0.24
SOIL ALBEDO
: 0.18
EVAPORATION LIMIT : 2.00
MIN. FACTOR : 1.00
MAIZE
CULTIVAR :IB0035-McCurdy 84aa
ECOTYPE :IB0002
RUNOFF CURVE # :60.00
DRAINAGE RATE
: 0.65
FERT. FACTOR : 0.80
P1
: 265.00 P2 6.2 :22.2 45.3 16.1 : 21.4 <--cm
TOT-180
0.3000 P5
920.00
- kg/ha-->
2.5
12.9 87080
G2
: 990.00ALBEDO
SOIL
G3
:: 0.18
8.500 PHINT : 39.000LIMIT : 2.00
EVAPORATION
MIN. FACTOR : 1.00
MAIZE
CULTIVAR :IB0035-McCurdy 84aa
ECOTYPE :IB0002
RUNOFF CURVE # :60.00
DRAINAGE RATE
: 0.65
FERT. FACTOR : 0.80
P1
: 265.00 P2
: 0.3000 P5
: 920.00
*SIMULATED CROP AND SOIL STATUS AT MAIN DEVELOPMENT STAGES
G2
: 990.00 G3
: 8.500 PHINT : 39.000
MAIZE
CULTIVAR :IB0035-McCurdy 84aa
ECOTYPE :IB0002
RUN NO.
P1
1
: 265.00 LOW NITROGEN
RAINFED
P2
: 0.3000 P5
: 920.00
*SIMULATED CROP AND SOIL STATUS AT MAIN DEVELOPMENT STAGES
G2
: 990.00 G3
: 8.500 PHINT : 39.000
OUTPUT
Phenology
flowering, grain/seed/tuber,
maturity
Yield component
grain/seed/tuber, biomass, LAI
Growth
grain/seed/tuber, biomass, LAI
CROP GROWTH
BIOMASS
CROP N
STRESS
RUN NO.
1
RAINFED LOW NITROGEN
DATE AGE STAGE
*SIMULATED CROP AND SOIL STATUS AT %MAIN DEVELOPMENT STAGES
kg/ha
LAI kg/ha
H2O
N
------ --- ---------- ----- ----- --- --- ---- ---CROP GROWTH
BIOMASS
CROP N
STRESS
25 FEB
0RUN NO. Sim 1
Start
0 RAINFED LOW NITROGEN
0.00
0 0.0 0.00 0.00
DATE AGE STAGE
kg/ha
LAI kg/ha %
H2O
N
26 FEB
0 Sowing
0
0.00
0 0.0 0.00 0.00
------ --- ---------- ----- ----- --- --- ---- ---27 FEB
1 Germinate GROWTH 0.00
CROP
0
BIOMASS 0 0.0 0.00 N
CROP 0.00 STRESS
25 FEB
0 Start Sim
0
0.00
0 0.0 0.00 0.00
9 MAR
11 Emergence STAGE
DATE AGE
29
0.00
kg/ha 1 4.4 0.00 0.00 H2O
LAI kg/ha %
N
26 FEB
0 Sowing
0
0.00
0 0.0 0.00 0.00
27 MAR
29------ --- ---------- ----- 4 ----- 0.00 --- ---- ---End Juveni
251
0.43
1.6
--- 0.09
27 FEB
1 Germinate
0
0.00
0 0.0 0.00 0.00
1 APR
3425 FEB Ini Start Sim
Floral
0
304
0.44
0 4 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00
1.5
0 0.50
9 MAR
11 Emergence
29
0.00
1 4.4 0.00 0.00
26 FEB
0 Sowing
0
0.00
0 0.0 0.00 0.00
27 MAR
29 End Juveni
251
0.43
4 1.6 0.00 0.09
27 FEB
1 Germinate
0
0.00
0 0.0 0.00 0.00
1 APR
34 Floral Ini
304
0.44
4 1.5 0.00 0.50
9 MAR
11 Emergence
29
0.00
1 4.4 0.00 0.00
27 MAR
29 End Juveni
251
0.43
4 1.6 0.00 0.09
1 APR
34 Floral Ini
304
0.44
4 1.5 0.00 0.50
Soil
nitrogen balance, water balance,
carbon balance
MANAGEMENT
CULTIVAR
• Phenology
• Max # of kernels
• Kernel filling rate
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Planting window
Planting density
Irrigation
Inorganic fertilizer
Organic manure
Tillage
Residue

4. DSSAT
Decision Support System for AgrotechnologyTransfer
 Process-based mathematical
agronomy model
 (Matured) Research tool for
crop production analyses
 Incorporates
 Crop-Soil-Weather-Management models
 Utilities to help users integrate data with models
 Data: Weather, Soil, Experiments
 Analysis: Evaluation, Risk/Uncertainty, Economics
 Support: Graphics, Weather Generator, Parameter Estimator
 CENTURY module simulates dynamics of soil organic
matter and residue managements

5. INPUTS/OUTPUTS
INPUT
OUTPUT
Site information
Phenology
coordinates, elevation, drainage
flowering, grain/seed/tuber, maturity
Daily weather
Yield component
solar radiation, temperature, rainfall
grain/seed/tuber, biomass, LAI
Soil
Growth
classification, water release curve, bulk density,
organic carbon, root growth factor, drainage
grain/seed/tuber, biomass, LAI
Initial conditions
nitrogen balance (e.g., leaching)
water balance (e.g., runoff)
carbon balance (e.g., emission)
phosphorus balance
previous crop, soil water and nitrogen content
Management
cultivar, planting, water and nutrient
management, residue application, tillage,
harvest, pest/disease damage
Soil

6. We want yield responses
for all commodities to all
potential technologies
*everywhere* 
SAYS GROUPS OF
ECONOMISTS

7. Improved variety
10
Planting in November
8
RESEARCH OBJECTIVE
6
4
2
Yield
(t/ha)
Model changes in outputs
as a consequence of
changes in inputs
0
100
80
60
N Fertilizer Application
(kg[N]/ha)
40
20
0
N/A
20
40
Irrigation
Threshold (%)

8. SChEF
ECONOMIC
EVALUTION
Spatial Characterization and
Evaluation Framework
stakeholder-led
evaluation scenarios,
market-scale analysis
seeds, fertilizer use, soil
of changes &
water management,
interventions (e.g.
conservative
technologies, practices,
agriculture, transport
policies), winners and
networks and costs, onlosers
farm/post-harvest
technologies, climate
INVESTMENT
& POLICY
FORMULATION/
DECISIONS
CHANGES
BASELINE
characterization,
current & potential
productivity,
infrastructure,
markets,
profitability
INGREDIENTS
PSYCH
SPAM
CLIMEX
TOUCAN
SMAAT
DREAM
Production systems characterization
Spatial Production Allocation
Pest & Disease Modeling
Crop Systems Simulation on Grids
Spatial Market Access/Price Tool
Market Scale Impact Evaluation

9. POINT VS. GRID*
 Crop models are point-based
applications,
using point-based input data
 Models can be run on grids,
using grid-based input data

11. Linux Cluster
CROP MODELING
in global and regional-scale
studies on grids

12. FERTILIZER PROFITABILITY: WHEAT in ETHIOPIA
 Rainfed mean yield simulated for 100-year period
 Recommended rate of fertilizer (100kg of DAP + 50kg of urea)
 Spatial price modeling of input (fertilizer) and output (wheat)

13. EX-ANTE TECHNOLOGY IMPACT ASSESSMENT
 Rainfed maize and wheat production in Ethiopia
 Climate change scenarios: 2010-2050
 Hypothetical full adoption of technology

14. RAINFALL/YIELD VARIABILITY: MAIZE in ETHIOPIA
 Low-input versus high-input systems, simulated at 0.5-degree resolutions
 Historical gridded weather data: 1980-2010

15. LIMITATIONS
 Data!
 Scale
– Point-based biophysical
model, extrapolated to
the gridded space
 Complexity
– No pest/disease/weed
models
– No micronutrients
Anchoring point

16. OPPORTUNITIES
 Data!
 Scale
– Extrapolating over space
– Counterfactuals
 Complexity
– Capturing the interactive
impacts (difficult to
assess causality
otherwise)
OUTPUT
Phenology
flowering, grain/seed/tuber, maturity
Yield component
grain/seed/tuber, biomass, LAI
Growth
grain/seed/tuber, biomass, LAI
Soil
nitrogen balance (e.g., leaching)
water balance (e.g., runoff)
carbon balance (e.g., emission)
phosphorus balance

17. Africa Research in Sustainable Intensification for the Next Generation
africa-rising.net