Sean Moffitt from Agent Wildfre (www.agentwildfire.com) takes a look into social media's crystal ball and makes some smart bets on how this child "social media" will play in teh schoolyard in 2010

1. 16 Social Media Trends for 2010 - by Agent Wildfire Sean Moffitt @SeanMoffitt President & Chief Evangelist, Agent Wildfire November 2009

2. Predictions can be a tricky business….yikes “ I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943. "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." -- Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977. "640K ought to be enough for anybody." -- Attributed to Bill Gates, 1981. "Almost all of the many predictions now being made about 1996 hinge on the Internet's continuing exponential growth. But I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, 1995.

3. In the year 3000 YouTube, Twitter, and Facebook will merge into one super-time-wasting website called ' You Twit Face ' … .it’s possible

4. More recently – Web Predictions 2001 2002 Web clickthroughs drop  Weblogs will become more popular  Web-based advertising models plummet  Google will go public  Web-based ad agencies downsize  De-emphasis on HTML  Focus on enterprise sales  Bluetooth will disappear  Customers will pay online  Peer-to-peer as viable bus. model  Cyber attack will occur on air traffic controls  Outsourcing will take more control -operating budgets  Jakob Nielsen, Andy Oram Fagan Finder, ZD Net, Gartner

5. Some good….some bad… 2003 2004 Broadband content  Online voting would not happen by 2014  ITV  The next decade health care will boom with tech  Fewer ads, more impact  Social networks will expand our circles  Wireless will flounder  News/publishing will need to adopt the most  Two tier internet – for fee and for free  TiVo kills TV format, Napster kills music  Myth that internet is borderless will die  One devastating attack will occur  ClickZ, Gerry McGovern Pew Internet

6. … and some ugly 2005 2006 PDAs become pass, move to cell phones  2 to 3 game changers will make Flickr look small  Many people will lose jobs over blogs  Web 2.0 as a term will Fall into disuse  Microsoft will open source a major product  Ecommerce meets social tools  Several Fortune 1000s will set up 24/7 blogging teams  Digg will expand into other areas  Jobs will move from iPod to iPhone focus  Microsoft Live will become the leader in apps  The Year of the Corporate Blog  Five piece website has worn out welcome  Jupiter, Robert Scoble, Neville Hobson Conversion Rater, Poynter Online

7. Shift Happens Quickly 2000 2009 Cell phone users 750 million 3.8 billion Internet users 360 million 1.6 billion Social network members Few 1.2 billion Napsters Blogs Hundreds 200+million Ave. No. of Twitter Followers 0 70 Ave. No. of Facebook friends 0 130

8. 16 Social Media Trends for 2010

9. Trend #1 - Attention Overload & Filtering

10. Trend #1 - Attention Overload & Filtering More Volume Captive Audience … Be the First … Get Clever

11. Trend #1 - Attention Overload & Filtering More Aggressive Filters … Learn SEO, Get networked, Have great content A-listing/Exclusivity/ Private Spaces Build Influencer Relationships Top 50 Journos/Top 100 Bloggers/ Top 500 Networkers

12. Trend #2 - Brand Community Building

13. The New 2.0 Frontiers “ Internal purposes” 65% “ External purposes” 58% “ Working with partners and suppliers” 41%

14. Trend #3 – Local, Grassroots, Local, Grassroots

15. Trend #3 – Local apps, geo tagging, contextual gaming/advertising

16. Trend #4 – Monetization…someone finally needs to pay us

17. Source: Agent Wildfire Buzz Report 2009 Trend #5 – Radical Reinvention of Agencies Ethnography? Design? Customer Experience? Compensation? Grassroots Connection? Own the Idea? Beliefs Strongly Agree Agree Agencies need to radically reinvent themselves to stay competitive 39% 44% Managing the customer experience is the key battleground for business 32% 50%

18. Trend #6 – Employee Social Media

19. Trend #7 – Personal Brands = Corporate Brands = Brandividuals

20. Trend #8 – Content Syndication

21. How to Avoid This… Trend #9 – The Rise of Community Evangelists/Managers

22. Community/Brand Evangelists – Social Media Bridges

23. How to Avoid This… Trend #10 – Collaborative Real-Time Communication

25. Trend #11 – Joint Ventures

26. Trend #12 – Portability of Web

27. Trend #13 – Crowdsourcing Sacred Cows

29. The world at our doorstep but…

30. Trend #15 – Math Marketing & Data Visualization

31. Trend #16 – Video Social Media

32. Marketers Never Forget – Humans are Hard Wired Social Animals

36. Sean Moffitt smoffitt@agentwildfire.com (416) 255-4500 Twitter: @seanmoffitt www.AgentWildfire.com Blog: Buzz Canuck