Climate science summary of latest developments 2010

Climate Science Summary of Latest Developments A summary prepared by AGL – based upon IPCC and CSIRO research For further information: Tim Nelson Head of Economic Policy and Sustainability [email_address]

The Greenhouse Effect – A Detailed Understanding ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Correlation between Carbon Dioxide and Temperature ,[object Object],[object Object]

What are the Greenhouse Gases? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Greenhouse Gas Global Warming Potential (Radiative Forcing Potential) Source of Greenhouse Gas Carbon Dioxide 1 Carbon cycle, fossil fuels Methane 23 Fossil fuels, waste Nitrous Oxide 296 Fertiliser, industrial Hydrofluorocarbons @ 100 to 12,000 Refrigeration, industrial Perflurocarbons @ 5,000 to 12,000 Aluminium production Sulphur hexafluoride 22,200 Dielectric fluid

Increasing Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Most Recent Observations ,[object Object],[object Object]

Anthropogenic Changes to Radiative Forcing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Variable Current Radiative Forcing Other Information Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide + 2.30 W m -2 (+2.07 to +2.53) Rate of increase unprecedented in at least 10,000 years Aerosols - 0.5 W m -2 (-0.9 to –0.1) direct and –0.7 (-1.8 to –0.3) indirect Aerosols also influence cloud lifetime and precipitation Tropospheric ozone (i.e. nitrous oxide etc) +0.35 Wm -2 (+0.25 to +0.65) Halocarbons +0.34 Wm -2 (+0.31 to +0.37) Solar irradiance +0.12 Wm -2 (+0.06 to +0.30)

Observed Climate Changes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Observed Changes in Australia Trend in mean temperature 1960-2009 (ºC/decade) Source: BOM-CSIRO ,[object Object],[object Object]

Observed Changes in Australia Trend in annual rainfall 1960-2009 (mm per decade) Source: BOM-CSIRO ,[object Object],[object Object]

Link between Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Forecast Temperature and Climate Changes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Case Temperature Change (at 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999) Best Estimate Range Constant Year 2000 Concentrations of GHG 0.6 0.3-0.9 Scenario 1 1.8 1.1-2.9 Scenario 2 2.4 1.4-3.8 Scenario 3 2.4 1.4-3.8 Scenario 4 2.8 1.7-4.4 Scenario 5 3.4 2.0-5.4 Scenario 6 4.0 2.4-6.4

Impacts: Examples for Australia ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Impacts: Examples for Australia ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Climate science summary of latest developments 2010

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Climate science summary of latest developments 2010