GRP on Climate Change Outlook 2011

GRP on Climate Change Outlook 2011 Henry Neufeldt On behalf of the whole GRP5 team ICRAF Science Week Nairobi, 12 September 2011

Major climate change (and variability?) at ICRAF ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The limits of adaptation (Source: Parry et al., 2010)

Contributions to climate change Agriculture, forestry and land use change are currently responsible for 25% to 30% of total GHG emissions

Correlation between GDP and rainfall in Zimbabwe Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe

Benefits of trees on farms ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Short-term losses vs. long-term benefits

GRP 5.1 on Adaptation: Vulnerability and adaptation of agroforestry systems to climate variability and change GRP 5.2 on Mitigation: Advancing carbon sequestration through agroforestry to enhance livelihoods while mitigating climate change Research Focus of the GRP on Climate Change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Climate variability and change 1. Adaptation to progressive climate change 2. Adaptation through managing climate risk 3. Pro-poor climate change mitigation Technologies, practices, policies and capacity enhancement: 4. Integration for decision making Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, NRM & food systems Improved environmental benefits Improved livelihoods Improved food security Trade-offs and synergies

There are three research themes in Component 4 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Species records Source: GBIF et al. Downscaled climate data Source: CIAT Cacao Agroforestry records Source: Zomer et al. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Adressing climate change impact on AGF in the Amazon – ii) datasets ICRAF LA Financed by GRP5 Marketplace 2010: i) Impacts of climate change on the distribution of AGF tree species in the Amazon – a sensitivity analysis, ii) Global agroforestry trajectories under a changing climate - for details contact Konstantin König – k.koenig@cgiar.org

Further analysis will be based on – Heubes, J., Kühn, I., König, K., Wittig, R., Zizka, G. and Hahn, K. (2011), Modelling biome shifts and tree cover change for 2050 in West Africa. Journal of Biogeography. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02560.x Financed by GRP5 Marketplace 2010: i) Impacts of climate change on the distribution of AGF tree species in the Amazon – a sensitivity analysis, ii) Global agroforestry trajectories under a changing climate - for details contact Konstantin König – k.koenig@cgiar.org Adressing climate change impact on AGF in the Amazon – iii) results AGF tree species predictions Climate driven shifts of AGF systems Recent distribution of Cacau AGF Systems in the Amazon Prediction of Cacau Agroforesty Systems in 2050 (SRES A1B, Echam5) ICRAF LA

GHG flux measurement v1: GC and IRGA

GHG flux measurement v2: PAS Multi-gas analyzer

Critical issues and ICRAF research focus ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Critical issues: Low productivity on sloping land, high poverty rate, high rate of deforestation and degradation, poor cross-sectoral land use planning. Vulnerable to the increased climate variability ,[object Object]

Climate vulnerability, food security and coping strategies in western Kenya ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],All #s in % Reduce Quantity, Quality or # of meals Comm-unity or family support Help from Gov, NGO, Church Borrow money Casual Labor Sell possess-ions or livestock Consume Seeds Children attend school less Lower Nyando 85 30 42 32 28 72 72 38 Middle Nyando 38 23 18 37.5 25 40 61 12.5

Recommendations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Tenure and Investment in Woody Vegetation

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],List of all ongoing projects with climate change contexts

GRP on Climate Change Outlook 2011

Recomendados

Recomendados

Más contenido relacionado

La actualidad más candente

La actualidad más candente (20)

Similar a GRP on Climate Change Outlook 2011

Similar a GRP on Climate Change Outlook 2011 (20)

Más de World Agroforestry (ICRAF)

Más de World Agroforestry (ICRAF) (20)

Último

Último (20)

GRP on Climate Change Outlook 2011

Notas del editor