This document discusses changes in agriculture and land use in Kenya between 1983 and 2013. Some key findings include: - Agricultural intensity increased significantly over this period, with the most intensive agriculture replacing natural vegetation. - Tree cover declined overall but herbaceous vegetation declined more than tree cover. Managed trees on farms increased. - Land tenure impacted land use patterns - adjudicated land had more intensive agriculture and greater tree cover compared to unadjudicated land. - Population growth and expansion of agriculture led to encroachment into forest reserves like Mau Forest. Agricultural intensity varied between agro-ecological zones and was influenced by rainfall and temperature.

9. Agricultural Intensity 1983

10. Agricultural Intensity 2013

11. Agricultural Intensity 1983  2013

12. Increase in Agricultural Intensity 1983  2012

13. Agricultural Intensity 1983 v. 2013

14. Impact of Land Tenure on Agriculture

15. The development trajectory of unadjudicated is
40 years behind that of adjudicated land

16. Agriculture replaces the Natural Vegetation

17. … but at the expense of Herbaceous rather than
Tree cover

18. Total Tree Cover 1983  2013

19. Managed trees (aka trees-on-farms aka agro-
forestry) replace natural trees

20. Increase in Agroforestry 1983  2013
of 215,000 hectares
Woody Crops Ha 29,000
Hedgerows and
Windrows
Ha 62,000
Km 207,000
Woodlots Ha 48,000
Plantations Ha 16,000
Scattered Trees Ha 60,000

21. Impact of Tenure on Tree Cover

22. Impact of Tenure on Tree Cover
Adjudicated Land

23. Impact of Tenure on Tree Cover
Unadjudicated Land

24. Impact of Land Tenure on Tree Cover
Investment in agro-forestry components
Leasehold Freehold Unadjudicated
% Trees managed 83% 88% 56%
% TOF cash 83% 53% 29%
% TOF landscape 17% 47% 71%
"Cash" Woody crops, woodlots & plantations
"Landscape" Hedgerows, windrows and scattered trees

25. Are Forests doing a good job?
Perhaps …..

26. Are Forests doing a good job?
Mount Elgon

27. Are Forests doing a good job?
Mau Forest

28. Agriculture in the Mau Forest Reserve 2013

31. Population Growth and Agricultural Expansion

32. Agricultural Intensity within
Agro-Ecological Zones

33. Change in Agricultural Intensity
within Agro-Ecological Zones

35. Change in Agricultural Landcover with Rainfall

37. Change in Agricultural Landcover with
Temperature