By Chris Ackello-Ogutu and John Mburu. Presented at the ASTI-FARA conference Agricultural R&D: Investing in Africa's Future: Analyzing Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities - Accra, Ghana on December 5-7, 2011. http://www.asti.cgiar.org/2011conf

1. ASTI/IFPRI-FARA Conference Cost-Benefit Analysis of Restructuring NARS in Kenya Chris Ackello-Ogutu and John Mburu Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Nairobi

8. Costs (Ksh million) of KARO and proposed semi-autonomous Institutes Organizations Period (actual years) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ...……… 2040 KARO Secretariat 1,064 536 275 274 310 .........… 1,619 Water Resource Management Institute 785 527 600 684 780 …… .…. 5,568 KIRDI 105 121 140 163 188 ……… .. 1,972 ASAL Research Institute 665 574 654 746 850 … .……. 6,068 Industrial Crops Institute 828 944 1,076 1,226 1,398 ……… .. 9,978 Horticulture Institute 453 516 589 671 765 ……… .. 5,461 Marine & Fisheries Institute 424 477 537 604 679 ……… .. 3,955 Forestry Institute 687 756 833 918 1011 ……… .. 4,317 Livestock Institute 591 673 767 875 997 ……… . 7,119 Food Crops Institute 866 987 1,125 1,282 1,462 ……… .. 10,435 Public and Private Universities 2,716 3,096 3,529 4,023 4,587 ……… .. 32,740 Private Research Organizations 295 309 325 341 358 ……… . 862 Total costs 8,202 7,949 8,542 9,502 10,619 ……… .. 61,980 Total Costs – million US$ 113.9 114.3 125.6 141.9 160.8 ……… .. 90,246

9. Costs (Ksh million) of current research institutes Organization 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -------- 2040 KARI 4,091 4,663 5,316 6,060 6,909 7,876 -------- 56,220 KEFRI 895 986 1,086 1,196 1,318 1,452 6,198 KMFRI 554 623 701 788 886 997 -------- 5,808 KIRDI 70 81 94 108 125 145 -------- 1,315 KESREF 308 338 372 409 449 493 -------- 2,028 TRF 177 205 239 278 323 376 -------- 3,640 CRF 292 320 350 384 420 460 -------- 1,795 Universities 1,810 2,064 2,353 2,682 3,058 3,486 -------- 21,827 Private organizations 97 102 107 113 118 124 -------- 259 Total costs 8,294 9,383 10,618 12,019 13,608 15,410 -------- 99,090 Total costs million US$ 99.7 112.7 127.6 144.4 163.5 185.2 -------- 1,190.6

12. Is the proposed NARS Policy economically viable? Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 --- 2040 Net benefits of ‘with policy scenario’ -9,476 -9,516 -1,849 -2,009 -2,205 2,368 ---- 33,683 Net benefits of ‘without policy scenario’ -3,847 -4,647 -5,512 -6,606 -7,822 -9,190 ---- -47,304 Incremental net benefit -5,629 -4,870 3,663 4,598 5,617 6,822 ---- 80,988 Decision Criteria NPV = 142,584 (US$ 1,713 million); IRR = 47.4 percent