1. Assessing Global Patterns of Regime Shifts
Juan-Carlos Rocha - PhD student (2010-2015)

2. The problem
Does Johan need a new chair?? - NOUP
Frequency and intensity of regime shifts are
likely to increase in the anthropocene &
many ES’s may be substantially affected.
What are the main drivers globally?
What can we do to manage them and
avoid undesirable regime shifts?
What are the possible cascading or
synergistic effects?
Where are they likely to happen?
Vulnerable areas? Rockström et al., 2009

3. Yeah, sure... but how?
By getting an office or figures more
colorful than Johan’s?? - NOUP
Juan uses recent developments of
network science and apply them to
toy models of regime shifts. He plans
to map vulnerability of regime shifts
to climate change and apply data
mining techniques to anticipate
potential impacts on ecosystem
services.
Network of causal loop diagrams for 19 regime shifts in
polar, terrestrial and marine ecosystems

4. What are the main drivers of
Regime Shifts?
Fishing
Urbanization
Nutrients inputs
Demand
Proportion of Drivers sharing causality to Regime Shifts (n=55)
Global warming Deforestation
1.0
Human population
Global warming
Agriculture
Demand Atmospheric CO2
0.8
Agriculture
Deforestation Human population
Nutrients inputs Droughts
Fishing
Urbanization
Droughts
0.6
Atmospheric CO2
Food production & climate change are
0.4
the most important drivers or regime
shifts globally
0.2
Only 11 out of our 55 drivers cause
25-60% of the 20 regime shifts we
0.0
analyzed in marine, terrestrial and polar
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 ecosystems . These 11 drivers interact
Proportion of Regime Shifts (n=20) with 50-85% of other drivers when
causing regime shifts.

5. How the drivers tend to interact?
Tundra to Forest
Marine regime shifts tend to
Thermohaline circulation
share significantly more drivers
Fisheries collapse and tend to have similar
Greenland Marine foodwebs
feedback mechanisms,
Salt marshes
Monsoon weakening suggesting they can synchronize
in space and time. By managing
Dry land degradation Encroachment
key drivers several regime shifts
Coral transitions can be avoided in aquatic
Kelps transitions
Eutrophication Floating plants systems.
Forest to savannas
Peatlands Bivalves collapse
Terrestrial regime shifts share
less drivers. Higher diversity of
Hypoxia drivers makes management
Soil structure more context dependent.
Soil salinization River channel change

6. What does it mean for management?
Drivers by Management Type
Tundra to Forest
River channel change
Local Avoiding regime shifts calls for
National
Thermohaline circulation International poli-centric institutions.
Greenland
Marine foodwebs
Peatlands
Monsoon weakening
Half of the drivers of 75% of
Kelps transitions the regime shifts require
Dry land degradation
Forest to savannas
international cooperation to
Soil structure manage them.
Soil salinization
Salt marshes
Encroachment Given the high diversity of
Hypoxia
Coral transitions
drivers, focusing on well
Fisheries collapse studied variables (e.g.
Eutrophication
Bivalves collapse
nutrients inputs) wont preclude
Floating plants regime shifts from happening.
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Proportion of RS Drivers

7. Parallel projects & collaboration
1. Text mining to infer potential ecosystem services affected by regime
shifts (with Robin Wikström - Abo University)
2. Networks of Drivers and Ecosystem Services consequences of Marine
Regime Shifts (with Peterson, Biggs, Blenckner & Yletyinen)
3. Experimental economics in Colombia: how people respond to abrupt
ecosystem change? (with Schill, Crepin & Lindahl)
4. Resource - trade networks: Can we detect cascading effects among
regime shifts by tracing trade signals?
5. Holling’s logic in reverse: Can networks infer resilience surrogates in
SES?

8. Thanks!!
Welcome to join Juan’s licentiate defense: June 3rd 2013
Questions? juan.rocha@stockholmresilience.su.se
Research blog: http://criticaltransitions.wordpress.com
News and papers on regime shifts: @juanrocha