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1
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Revised April 5, 2012 (Nestle & Appendix)
2
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Background
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
Since 1998, AHAA has been helping its members serve its corporate clients
through breakthrough independent studies that
• increase understanding of what it takes to win the market,
• share new concepts
• and identify best practices of marketing to Latinos.
Most recently, in October 2011, Part 1 of AHAA’s study series on drivers to
growth found a strong positive correlation between allocation of ad resources
and topline growth.
• Hispanic marketing ‘Best-In-Class’ companies have a sustainable competitive
growth advantage over the ‘Laggards’.
3
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Hispanic Market Highlights
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
MARKET SIZE
– 2010 Population 50.7M1
– 2011 Hispanic Share of US 17%2, 1 in 6
GROWTH
– Hispanic Population 2000-2010 CAGR v Non-Hispanic 3.6% v. 0.5%3
– Share of Total US 2000-2010 Growth 56%4
– Share of Labor Force Growth 2010-2020 74%7
ECONOMIC
– 2012 Estimated Buying Power $1.2 Trillion5
– Hispanic Buying Power 2000-2010 CAGR v. Non-Hispanic 7.8% v. 3.4%6
4
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Challenge
• Companies challenged by anemic growth more than ever
– Consumers have changed; more fickle today
– Economic downturn will make consumers more frugal and value-
oriented over the long run
– Technology and new media create both opportunities to reach
audiences and complexity as well
– Possible “Reset” of economy could structurally impact certain sectors
and jobs
– Changing demographics (age) and multicultural trends create new
potential sources for growth
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
5
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Challenge
All companies have growing challenge of balancing
competing needs
1. Holding on to ‘General Market’
2. Finding new growth
3. Capturing fair share of growth markets
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
6
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
About the Author & Sources
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
• The study was commissioned by AHAA’s Research Committee and developed and
executed by Santiago Solutions Group (SSG), a growth strategy consultancy.
• Independent methodological review performed by Dr. Cristina Garcia, professor of
mathematics & statistics at USC.
• Financial revenue growth data extracted from companies 10Ks.
• Parent company ad spend data for 2006-2010 Hispanic media and non-Hispanic
media collected from The Nielsen Company.
• Consumer habits, attitudes and values by GfK Roper & GfK MRI syndicated studies
with sample of 53K (sampling details in Appendix E)
7
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
Study Objectives
Presented by Carlos Santiago,
President & Chief Strategist,
Santiago Solutions Group
Carlos@SantiagoSolutionsGroup.com
(818) 736 5661
8
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Is there a significant difference in the revenue growth rate attained by
CPG companies which designate higher focus and resources to the
Hispanic market and those that focus less?
What do they do differently?
What factors distinguish companies that capture Hispanic growth
successfully from those that underperform with this segment?
Study Objectives
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
9
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Study Variables
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
Aggregate Hispanic Allocation 2006-
2010: Independent variable
1. The input being changed possibly
impacting Revenue CAGR.
2. The % of total advertisement
dollars spent in TV, Radio, and Print
(per Nielsen tracking) assigned to
Hispanic-centric media channels
throughout 2006 to 2010.
2006-2010 Revenue CAGR: Dependent
variable
1. Revenue CAGR is our dependent
variable which was tested against
different levels of Hispanic
Allocation.
2. Revenue as reflected from topline,
organic US-only consumer demand
per 10Ks.
− may have been adjusted to exclude
extraordinary transactions and
normalize revenue from
acquisitions, if enough clear data
has been stated in corporate
financials.
10
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Methodology
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
A main CPG regression with 39
companies was validated by
three other test regression
models with larger sample
sizes.
Four total regression tests
• All confirmed the same findings at
statistical significance
• Details of statistical analysis will follow
after Q&A section.
Aggregate 06-10 Hispanic
Allocation
N=211
Aggregate Hispanic 06-10
Allocation AND Year by Year
Revenue Growth
N=211
Aggregate Hispanic 06-
10 Allocation, Year by
Year Revenue Growth,
AND Super Categories
N=211
CPGs
N=39
11
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
CPGs & Retailers in Study
12
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Study Significance
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
All findings discussed in the presentation are statistically significant at a
95% confidence level or better.
13
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
Study Findings
14
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Are CPGs Growth Rates Related to
Hispanic Focus?
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
There is a direct &
positive
relationship
between CPG’s
Hispanic ad
allocation and their
topline revenue
growth.
Please see Appendix D (Graph 1) for Detailed Graph and Graphical Analysis.
15
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Key Findings
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
• Hispanic Allocation alone explains
about 35% of CPGs change in
topline revenue growth
– The other 65% may include other critical
factors such as brand awareness/equity,
new product development, management
focus, measurement tools, distribution,
sales force, past performance,
community position, organization
structure, talent, overall segmentation
expertise, etc.
– Further analysis is needed to determine
what exactly the other drivers of
revenue growth are.
Hispanic
Marketing
35%
Other
Drivers of
Growth
65%
CPGs & Retailers
Revenue Growth Drivers
For Consumer Packaged Goods and their retailers
16
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Key Findings
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
Organic revenue
growth rates
decline sharply
as Hispanic
share of
budgets
decrease and
vice versa.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Top Allocation
(≥70th
Percentile)
Middle
Allocation (40th -
70th Percentile)
Low Allocation
(<40th
Percentile)
7.7%
4.7%
0.9%
6.8%
2.2%
0.6%
Allocation Tiers
Average 06-10 Hispanic Allocation Average 06-10 Revenue CAGR
17
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Top 30 Percentile Hispanic Marketers
By Allocation And Overall Revenue Growth
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
Top 30
Percentile
Please see Appendix D (Graph 1) for Detailed Graphical Analysis.
18
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Key Findings
All tests validated the
same findings.
Hispanic Allocation has a
direct & significant
impact on companies
overall revenue growth.
Aggregate 06-10 Hispanic
Allocation
N=211
Aggregate Hispanic 06-10
Allocation AND Year by Year
Revenue Growth
N=211
Aggregate Hispanic 06-
10 Allocation, Year by
Year Revenue Growth,
AND Super Categories
N=211
CPGs
N=39
19
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
Why Hispanic Consumers Are So Important
Today?
20
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
Much faster household formation has
exponential impact on continued growth
opportunity
Non-Hispanic Hispanic
2.5%/yr.0.4%/yr.Households
CAGR
6x NH CAGR
21
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
Much larger Households means heavier
usage
Non-Hispanic Hispanic
Persons
Per
HH1 3.82.5
52% larger HH
22
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
Hispanic households food at home expenditures will grow at 5.7% annually,
more than twice the rate for Non-Hispanic households of 2.5%.
Which Consumer Is Worth More?
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
$27
$33
$42
$59
$78
$94
$Billion
Hispanics Food at HH Expenditures
Historic
CAGR: 5.4%
Forecast
CAGR: 5.7%
23
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
The younger age and larger Hispanic household size contributes to Hispanic
households having the highest consumer spending potential for necessary spending
on Food at Home and Personal Care.
Which Consumer Is Worth More?
Hispanic Personal Care cumulative lifetime
spending is about 33% higher than that of Non-
Hispanic White.
Hispanic Food at Home cumulative lifetime
spending is over 50% higher than that of Non-
Hispanic White.
24
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
More influenced by strong brands
Hispanics are CPG valuable customers
Source: 2011 Doublebase GfK MRI - Base: All (n= 6.6K Hispanics & 46.5K Non-Hispanics)
Top Box: Agree Completely or Agree Mostly or Very Important Hispanic Index
I am more influenced by what seems hot and what’s not 139
Brand name is the best indication of quality 152
I only buy food items that are name brands, not generic brands 150
25
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
Less price sensitive
Hispanics are CPG valuable customers
Top Box: Agree Completely or Agree Mostly or Very Important Hispanic Index
I’d pay extra for products that are consistent with the image
I want to convey
125
I tend to make impulse purchases 117
I know the price I pay for most of the foods & packaged goods
I buy
83
26
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Status & Image Conscious
Hispanics are CPG valuable customers
Top Box: Agree Completely or Agree Mostly or Very Important Hispanic Index
I like to live a lifestyle that impresses others 149
I prefer to buy things that my friends/neighbors would
approve of
167
Seeking the utmost attractive appearance 122
27
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
See Shopping as Fun
Hispanics are CPG valuable customers
Top Box: Agree Completely or Agree Mostly or Very Important Hispanic Index
I enjoy wandering the store looking for new products 131
I’m always first of friends to try new products/services 145
Shopping is a great way to relax 147
28
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Key Category Influentials
Hispanics are CPG valuable customers
My family/friends often ask for and trust my advice on this
topic
Hispanic Index
Babies/Children 130
Beer 121
Alcoholic Beverages 135
Beauty 138
Cleaning Products 112
New Food Items 126
Food 112
Snacks 123
Dieting 115
Healthy Lifestyle 112
29
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Conclusions
& Implications
30
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Key Takeaways
For Consumer Packaged Goods
Statistical evidence demonstrates that:
• Consistent/significant Hispanic marketers drive
superior revenue growth.
• Hispanic as a priority drive sustainable growth into
future.
31
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
Implications for Companies
• Real bottom-line benefits come from consistent
approaches.
• Marketing is only the beginning, corporate-wide
integration and investment is key
– Responding to the most appropriate cultural insights
– Broad use of all elements of marketing
– Developing strategies from communications to customer experience
32
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
The U.S. Hispanic Consumer
Opportunity
Robert Moskow,
Research Analyst
Marcela Giraldo,
Research Associate
robert.moskow@credit-suisse.com
(212) 538 3095
marcela.giraldo@credit-suisse.com
(212) 325 6764
DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, INFORMATION ON TRADE ALERTS,
ANALYST MODEL PORTFOLIOS AND THE STATUS OF NON-U.S ANALYSTS. U.S. Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with
companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this
report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
The materials may not be used or relied upon in any way.
33
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Top Five Observations
• Wall Street should be paying more attention to the companies that “get
this right”
• Good Hispanic marketing companies attract and retain “best-in-class”
managers
• Commitment from the top and accountability at the bottom are key
• Kraft has engineered a turnaround
• Goya is the premier asset in Hispanic CPG
CREDIT SUISSE (USA), INC.
34
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Why Does Wall Street Tend To Overlook
Hispanic Marketing Expertise?
Source: Company information. CS estimates
Tier
Approx. % of
Sales To
Hispanics
Growth Rate
With
Hispanics
Growth Rate
With Non-
Hispanic
U.S.
Division
Growth
Rate Companies
Leaders 18% 7.0% 2.5% 3.3% KO, GIS, NESN.VX, MKC
Followers 13% 5.5% 2.5% 2.9% KFT, K, UN
Laggards 8% 4.0% 2.5% 2.6% HNZ, CPB, HSY, PEP, CAG
High/Low Difference 0.7%
+ Most of these companies have 60% of their sales in North America
+ Therefore, an incremental 0.7% to North America growth rate translates to only 0.4% for total company sales
+ In terms of valuation, 0.4% of incremental growth translates to a valuation differential of only 8%
 Difficult to isolate the impact of Hispanic marketing on growth rates
 Even when you do isolate it, it doesn’t look that meaningful to valuation
 Investors attention has shifted to emerging markets
35
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
In reality, “Leaders” have outpaced
“Laggards” in North America by 3.1% on
average
Source: Company information. CS estimates
4.4% 4.6%
3.3%
1.4%
0.7%
1.0%
2.3%
2.9%
1.3%
0.5%
1.4%
-0.1%
-3.7%-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Nestle
McCormick
GeneralMills
Colgate
P&G
Coke
Kellogg
Kraft
Unilever
Heinz
ConAgra
Cambpell
Pepsi
(beverages)
HistoricorganicrevenuegrowthNA(3yrs)
Leaders:
Average 2.6% Followers:
Average 2.2% Laggards:
Average -0.5%
- Translates into a much more meaningful 20%+ valuation differential!
36
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Good Hispanic Marketing Organizations
Attract Best-In-Class Managers
• Good managers want to be on the cutting edge of marketing
• They create shareholder value
Examples
• Coke shifting their mindset to the Latin American point-of-sale
merchandising approach
• General Mills’ leveraging the “Que Rica Vida” platform and
partnering with Univision
CREDIT SUISSE (USA), INC.
37
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
The trend is to push more of the
responsibility into the brand teams
Stage 1
• Low level of top
management
commitment
• Young brand
managers get
assigned to
monitor the
Hispanic efforts
Stage 2
• Creation of a high
profile
management role
to oversee the
Hispanic efforts
• Creation of a
Center of
Excellence
dedicated to
sharing best
practices
• Support function
with no P&L
responsibility
Stage 3
• Accountability at
the brand level for
Hispanic sales.
• Hispanic
advertising budget
is integrated within
the brands.
• ROI goals for
Hispanic marketing
investment within
the brand teams
- Coke, Wal-Mart, P&G, Unilever are all doing this
- The risk is that upper management lose will some of their control and
visibility
- Maintaining accountability will be the key to success CREDIT SUISSE (USA), INC.
38
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
2.1% 2.4%
4.4%
13.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2008 2009 2010 2011 (E)
Kraft Foods Inc Average group
3X increase in
2011
Kraft has engineered a turnaround
• Strong support from top
management
• The strategy is to increase
Hispanic spending on top 10
brands including Oreo, Kool-
Aid and Kraft Singles.
• Re-established their Latino
Center of Excellence in 2008
Risks
• It’s hard to regain momentum
after several years away
• Spin off of companies may
dilute Hispanic efforts and
impact scale advantage
Kool-Aid, in a first for any Kraft brand, has allocated the majority
of its 2011 marketing budget to reach Hispanics
Source: NY Times
Source: Kantar media. KFT’s management comments
Hispanic Advertising Investment as % of Total
CREDIT SUISSE (USA), INC.
39
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Mexican
65.7%
Other
5.1%Central
American
8.3%
Cuban
3.4%
Puerto Rican
9.0%
Dominican
2.8%
South American
5.8%
Goya is the premier asset in the Hispanic
food space
• 75-year-old family-owned
and family-managed
company
• Approximately $1B in
annual revenues
• Best at understanding
food preferences by
country of origin
• Tailor product portfolio by
region in the US
• Relationships with
bodegas are important
asset
US Hispanic Population by Country of Origin
Source: www.goya.com
Source: U.S. Census 2008
Caribbean
Mexican
Central And South
American
CREDIT SUISSE (USA), INC.
40
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Companies Mentioned (Price as of 06 Mar 12)
Campbell Soup Company (CPB, $33.04, NEUTRAL, TP $33.00)
Clorox Co. (CLX, $67.92, NEUTRAL, TP $72.00)
Colgate-Palmolive (CL, $93.35, NEUTRAL, TP $90.00)
ConAgra Foods, Inc. (CAG, $26.36, NEUTRAL, TP $27.00)
Danone (DANO.PA, Eu50.58, UNDERPERFORM, TP Eu44.00)
General Mills (GIS, $38.60, NEUTRAL, TP $41.00)
H.J. Heinz Company (HNZ, $53.09, NEUTRAL, TP $54.00)
Hormel Foods (HRL, $28.50, NEUTRAL, TP $32.00)
Kellogg Company (K, $52.09, NEUTRAL, TP $56.00)
Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB, $72.66)
Kraft Foods, Inc. (KFT, $38.35, OUTPERFORM, TP $45.00)
McCormick & Company (MKC, $50.82, NEUTRAL, TP $50.00)
Nestle (NESN.VX, SFr55.30, NEUTRAL, TP SFr58.00)
PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP, $62.79)
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG, $66.95, OUTPERFORM, TP $70.00)
Ralcorp (RAH, $74.41, NEUTRAL, TP $75.00)
Reckitt Benckiser (RB.L, 3469 p, OUTPERFORM, TP 3,800.00 p)
Sara Lee Corporation (SLE, $21.24, NEUTRAL, TP $20.00)
The Coca-Cola Company (KO, $69.23)
The Hershey Company (HSY, $60.93, OUTPERFORM, TP $68.00)
Disclosure Appendix
Important Global Disclosures
I, Robert Moskow, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about all of the subject companies and
securities and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in
this report.
See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names.
3-Year Price, Target Price and Rating Change History Chart for NESN.VX
NESN.VX Closing
Price
Target
Price Initiation/
Date (SFr) (SFr) Rating Assumption
16-Nov-09 47.88 55
11-Feb-10 49.69 60
30-Nov-10 54.55 N
9-Jun-11 53.15 55
11-Jul-11 52.6 R
16-Dec-11 51.2 58 N
55
60
55
58
N
R
N
35
40
45
50
55
60
7-Mar-097-May-09
7-Jul-097-Sep-09
7-Nov-09
7-Jan-107-Mar-107-May-10
7-Jul-10
7-Sep-10
7-Nov-10
7-Jan-117-Mar-117-May-11
7-Jul-117-Sep-11
7-Nov-11
7-Jan-12
Closing Price Target Price Initiation/Assumption Rating
SFr
O=Outperform; N=Neutral; U=Underperform; R=Restricted; NR=Not Rated; NC=Not Covered
3-Year Price, Target Price and Rating Change History Chart for HSY
HSY Closing
Price
Target
Price Initiation/
Date (US$) (US$) Rating Assumption
3/24/09 35.41 30 U
7/8/09 37.01 33
7/24/09 40.97 43 N
12/31/09 35.79 R
2/1/10 36.81 40 N
4/22/10 48.08 50
7/23/10 47.21 52
2/2/11 48.61 55 O
2/28/11 52.32 56
3/18/11 53.87 58
4/26/11 57.27 64
10/21/11 60.26 70
10/27/11 57.46 68
30
33
43
40
50
52
55 56
58
64
70
68
O
NR
N
U
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
3/7/09
5/7/09
7/7/09
9/7/09
11/7/09
1/7/10
3/7/10
5/7/10
7/7/10
9/7/10
11/7/10
1/7/11
3/7/11
5/7/11
7/7/11
9/7/11
11/7/11
1/7/12
Closing Price Target Price Initiation/Assumption Rating
US$
O=Outperform; N=Neutral; U=Underperform; R=Restricted; NR=Not Rated; NC=Not Covered
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total
revenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities.
Analysts’ stock ratings are defined as follows:
Outperform (O): The stock’s total return is expected to outperform the relevant benchmark* by at least 10-15% (or more, depending on perceived
risk) over the next 12 months.
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*Relevant benchmark by region: As of 29th May 2009, Australia, New Zealand, U.S. and Canadian ratings are based on (1) a stock’s absolute total
return potential to its current share price and (2) the relative attractiveness of a stock’s total return potential within an analyst’s coverage universe**,
with Outperforms representing the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities.
Some U.S. and Canadian ratings may fall outside the absolute total return ranges defined above, depending on market conditions and industry
factors. For Latin American, Japanese, and non-Japan Asia stocks, ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the average total return of
the relevant country or regional benchmark; for European stocks, ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage
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Market Weight: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months.
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Global Ratings Distribution
Outperform/Buy* 46% (60% banking clients)
Neutral/Hold* 42% (57% banking clients)
Underperform/Sell* 10% (48% banking clients)
Restricted 2%
*For purposes of the NYSE and NASD ratings distribution disclosure requirements, our stock ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform most closely correspond to Buy,
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Credit Suisse does not provide any tax advice. Any statement herein regarding any US federal tax is not intended or written to be used, and cannot
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See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names.
Price Target: (12 months) for (NESN.VX)
Method: Our price target is based on our APV (adjusted present value), a hybrid DCF that splits the operating cash flows (discounted at the cost of
equity), and the tax shield (discounted at the cost of debt). A terminal growth rate of 2.5% is assumed
Risks: Significant movements in raw material costs or currency can impact the business, as can irrational behaviour by either competitors or
retailers. Food scares, shortages, or contamination can also impact the business.
Price Target: (12 months) for (HSY)
Method: Our 12-month target price of $68/share implies a 19x P/E multiple against our 2013 estimate. This assumes that stock maintains the 19-
20x P/E multiple which is the range where it is trading today
Risks: The risks that HSY and our $68 target price could face include: 1) execution risk in the growing premium/dark chocolate category; 2) volatile
cocoa, nuts and dairy commodity input costs; and 3) the risk of competitive incursion in chocolate from Mars.
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41
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
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42
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Q & A Discussion
43
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Statistical Detail
& Model Validation
Presented by Dr. Cristina Garcia
Math & Statistics Professor at USC
SSG Methodology Advisor
44
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Methodology Highlights
• Started by looking at the Top 500
overall Advertisers (TV, Radio,
Print) by year and in aggregate
between.
• Matched each parent company
to available published financial
revenue data, and calculated
2006-2010 compounded annual
growth rates.
• Companies which did not have
consistent published financials
such as companies which grew
on M&As that weren’t adjustable
rather than organic consumer
driven growth were eliminated
from the final regression set.
Top 500 U.S. Overall Advertisers
2006-2010
(500)
Public
(418)
Consistent
Advertisers
(220)
Publicly Traded
w/ clear Organic US Revenue
(211)
CPGs
(39)
Unadjustable M&As
Inconsistent Data
(-9)
Inconsistent
Advertisers
(-198)
Private
(-82)
45
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Test Validations
All models validated the
same findings.
Hispanic Allocation has a
direct & significant
impact on companies
overall revenue growth.
Aggregate 06-10 Hispanic
Allocation
N=211
Aggregate Hispanic 06-10
Allocation AND Year by Year
Revenue Growth
N=211
Aggregate Hispanic 06-
10 Allocation, Year by
Year Revenue Growth,
AND Super Categories
N=211
CPGs
N=39
46
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Consumer Packaged Goods Regression
Model
• Hispanic Allocation alone explains
about 35% of changes in revenue
growth over a 5 year period for
Consumer Packaged Goods (R2=0.35)
– An R squared of .35, tells us that roughly
35% of a company’s revenue growth is
driven by changes in Hispanic Allocation.
– The expected range for a 1 percent increase
in Hispanic allocation is an increase of .48%
to 1.28% in overall corporate revenue
growth rate.
Revenue Growth over 5
year period (CAGR 06-10)
Aggregate
Hispanic
Allocation
2006-2010
CPG (N=39)
47
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
CPG Model Findings
– For every additional percentage point
increase in Hispanic allocation, we would
expect revenue growth of 0.883% over
the 5 years for Consumer Packaged
Goods
– In other words, on average, a 10%
allocation of a CPG company’s ad spend
to Hispanic media over 5 years would
generate revenue growth of 8.83% over
the 5 year period.
Hispanic
Marketing
35%
All Other
Drivers of
Growth
65%
Revenue Growth Drivers for
CPGs & Retailers
48
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Test 1: Is Aggregate Hispanic Allocation Important?
YES! Hispanic Allocation directly impacts topline revenue
growth for Top 500 Advertisers
• On average, for every additional
percentage point increase in
Hispanic allocation, we would
expect revenue growth of .40%
over the 5 years.
• In other words, allocating 10%
of the company’s ad spend to
Hispanic media over 5 years
would generate revenue growth
of 4.00% over the 5 year period
Aggregate Growth
CAGR 06-10
Aggregate
Hispanic
Allocation
06-10
TOP ADVERTISERS (N=211)
49
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
TEST 2: Individual Years Growth and Aggregate Hispanic Allocation
Revalidated! Both directly impact topline revenue growth
Revenue Growth over 5
year period
Aggregate
Hispanic
Allocation
06-10
CAGR
06-07, 07-08,
08-09, 09-10
• Of course, each year’s CAGR most significantly
affects the company’s revenue growth over 5
years
• R-square 0.608 In other words, 60.8% of the
variation in growth over the 5 years (CAGR 06-
10) is explained by the ad spend in Hispanic
media over the 5 years and each year’s annual
growth.
• On average, for every additional percentage
point increase in Hispanic allocation, we would
expect revenue growth of .34% over the 5 years.
• In other words, allocating 10% of the company’s
ad spend to Hispanic media over 5 years would
generate revenue growth of 3.44% over the 5
year period.TOP ADVERTISERS (N=211)
50
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Test 3: Hispanic Allocation, Super Categories and Revenue CAGR
Revalidated Again! Hispanic Allocation Is Relevant to Revenue Growth!
Revenue Growth over 5 year
period
Categories:
Auto, Tech &
Entertainme
nt, Retail,
CPG,
Finance/Insu
rance
CAGR:
06-07, 07-08, 08-
09, 09-10
Hispanic
Allocation:
06-10
• R-square .64, in other words, 64% of
the variation in growth over the 5 years
(CAGR 06-10) is explained by the ad
spend in Hispanic media over the 5
years and each annual year’s growth.
• On average, for every additional
percentage point increase in Hispanic
allocation, we would expect revenue
growth of 0.29% over the 5 years.
• In other words, allocating 10% of the
company’s ad spend to Hispanic media
over 5 years would generate revenue
growth of 2.89% over the 5 year period
TOP ADVERTISERS (N=211)
51
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
1
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
Conclusions of Tests
• In all tests, Hispanic Allocation consistently comes up as a
statistically significant variable positively affecting revenue
growth rates.
– Along with showing the importance of investing in the Hispanic market,
our model also shows that performance during the turn into the
recession 2007 to 2008 and recovery from the recession 2009 to 2010
time periods serve as good indicators for relative long term
performance (06-10).
52
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Appendix
53
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Sectors/Super Categories
Breakdown
Top 500
Advertisers
Super-
Categories
Included
Auto
Packaged
Goods
Omitted Advertisers
(Reasons)
Private
Gov’t
Non-
Profits
54
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Appendix A
Ranking By Hispanic Allocation
Company
2006-2010 Hispanic
Allocation Percentage
Rank Percentile
2006-2010 Revenue
Growth Rate
WALGREEN CO 10.05% 1 100.00% 9.20%
WAL-MART STORES INC 9.70% 2 97.30% 5.12%
COCA-COLA CO 8.79% 3 94.70% 12.39%
CLOROX CO 8.09% 4 92.10% 3.30%
RALCORP HOLDINGS 8.08% 5 89.40% 11.82%
GROUPE DANONE 7.81% 6 86.80% 11.82%
KIMBERLY-CLARK CORP 7.09% 7 84.20% 2.74%
UNILEVER 6.92% 8 81.50% 1.39%
TARGET CORP 6.68% 9 78.90% 3.25%
GENERAL MILLS INC 6.27% 10 76.30% 6.50%
NESTLE SA 6.25% 11 73.60% 7.45%
LOREAL SA 6.20% 12 71.00% 3.86%
PROCTER & GAMBLE CO 6.13% 13 68.40% 2.30%
HERSHEY CO 5.72% 14 65.70% 2.22%
TYSON FOODS INC 5.71% 15 63.10% 3.70%
BROWN-FORMAN CORP 5.09% 16 60.50% 1.62%
CVS/CAREMARK CORP 5.01% 17 57.80% 5.03%
JM SMUCKER CO 4.90% 18 55.20% 3.44%
BEIERSDORF AG 4.11% 19 52.60% -1.34%
55
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Ranking By Hispanic Allocation Cont.
Company
2006-2010 Hispanic
Allocation Percentage
Rank Percentile
2006-2010 Revenue
Growth Rate
PEPSICO INC 3.80% 20 50.00% -0.21%
KRAFT FOODS INC 3.77% 21 47.30% 0.90%
DIAGEO PLC 3.53% 22 44.70% 2.73%
KELLOGG CO 3.42% 23 42.10% 3.40%
ESTEE LAUDER COS 2.80% 24 39.40% -0.03%
BIG LOTS INC 2.33% 25 36.80% 1.08%
CONAGRA FOODS INC 2.24% 26 34.20% 1.06%
HORMEL FOODS CORP 1.97% 27 31.50% 5.60%
PERNOD RICARD SA 1.57% 28 28.90% 3.06%
LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS
VUITTON SA 0.64% 29 26.30% 3.91%
MCCORMICK & CO INC 0.55% 30 23.60% 5.01%
SARA LEE CORP 0.53% 31 21.00% -9.25%
FORTUNE BRANDS INC 0.53% 32 18.40% -4.32%
HENKEL KGAA 0.48% 33 15.70% -0.78%
CHURCH & DWIGHT CO 0.26% 34 13.10% 7.40%
DEAN FOODS CO 0.20% 35 10.50% 4.67%
CAMPBELL SOUP CO 0.15% 36 7.80% 2.98%
KAO CORP 0.13% 37 5.20% -4.50%
NEWELL RUBBERMAID 0.04% 38 2.60% -3.76%
NUTRI/SYSTEM INC 0.01% 39 0.00% -2.59%
56
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Appendix B
Ranking By Growth Rate
Company
2006-2010 Revenue
Growth Rate
Rank Percentile
2006-2010 Hispanic
Allocation
COCA-COLA CO 12.39% 1 100.00% 8.79%
RALCORP HOLDINGS 11.82% 2 97.30% 8.08%
GROUPE DANONE 11.82% 3 94.70% 7.81%
WALGREEN CO 9.20% 4 92.10% 10.05%
NESTLE SA 7.45% 5 89.40% 6.25%
CHURCH & DWIGHT CO INC 7.40% 6 86.80% 0.26%
GENERAL MILLS INC 6.50% 7 84.20% 6.27%
HORMEL FOODS CORP 5.60% 8 81.50% 1.97%
WAL-MART STORES INC 5.12% 9 78.90% 9.70%
CVS/CAREMARK CORP 5.03% 10 76.30% 5.01%
MCCORMICK & CO INC 5.01% 11 73.60% 0.55%
DEAN FOODS CO 4.67% 12 71.00% 0.20%
LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS
VUITTON SA 3.91% 13 68.40% 0.64%
LOREAL SA 3.86% 14 65.70% 6.20%
TYSON FOODS INC 3.70% 15 63.10% 5.71%
JM SMUCKER CO 3.44% 16 60.50% 4.90%
KELLOGG CO 3.40% 17 57.80% 3.42%
CLOROX CO 3.30% 18 55.20% 8.09%
TARGET CORP 3.25% 19 52.60% 6.68%
57
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
Ranking By Growth Rate Cont.
Company
2006-2010 Revenue
Growth Rate
Rank Percentile
2006-2010 Hispanic
Allocation
PERNOD RICARD SA 3.06% 20 50.00% 1.57%
CAMPBELL SOUP CO 2.98% 21 47.30% 0.15%
KIMBERLY-CLARK CORP 2.74% 22 44.70% 7.09%
DIAGEO PLC 2.73% 23 42.10% 3.53%
PROCTER & GAMBLE CO 2.30% 24 39.40% 6.13%
HERSHEY CO 2.22% 25 36.80% 5.72%
BROWN-FORMAN CORP 1.62% 26 34.20% 5.09%
UNILEVER 1.39% 27 31.50% 6.92%
BIG LOTS INC 1.08% 28 28.90% 2.33%
CONAGRA FOODS INC 1.06% 29 26.30% 2.24%
KRAFT FOODS INC 0.90% 30 23.60% 3.77%
ESTEE LAUDER COS INC -0.03% 31 21.00% 2.80%
PEPSICO INC -0.21% 32 18.40% 3.80%
HENKEL KGAA -0.78% 33 15.70% 0.48%
BEIERSDORF AG -1.34% 34 13.10% 4.11%
NUTRI/SYSTEM INC -2.59% 35 10.50% 0.01%
NEWELL RUBBERMAID INC -3.76% 36 7.80% 0.04%
FORTUNE BRANDS INC -4.32% 37 5.20% 0.53%
KAO CORP -4.50% 38 2.60% 0.13%
SARA LEE CORP -9.25% 39 0.00% 0.53%
58
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Appendix C
Regression Analysis Results
Test 1 Test 2 Test 3 CPG Model
Variable in Model Unstandarized Beta
Standardized Beta
(Significance)
Unstandarized Beta
Standardized Beta
(Significance)
Unstandarized Beta
Standardized Beta
(Significance)
Unstandarized
Beta
Standardized Beta
(Significance)
CAGR 06-07 NA .038
.189
(.000)
.039
.195
(.000)
NA
CAGR 07-08 NA .291
.511
(.000)
.269
.472
(.000)
NA
CAGR 08-09 NA .019
.202
(.000)
.016
.176
(.000)
NA
CAGR 09-10 NA .435
.581
(.000)
.448
.598
(.000)
NA
Hispanic Allocation
06-10
.396
.143
(.037)
.344
.125
(.005)
.288
.104
(.018)
.883
.592
(.000)
Auto NA NA -5.458
-.128
(.007)
NA
Insurance/Finance NA NA 2.229
.042
(.385)
NA
Technology NA NA 4.095
.112
(.026)
NA
Retail NA NA 1.226
.037
(.459)
NA
CPG NA NA 2.399
.068
(.168)
NA
R-Square .021 .608 .644 .350
N = 211 211 211 39
Dependent Variable CAGR 06-10
59
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Appendix D
Graphical Analysis
Graph 1
60
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Appendix D
Graphical Analysis
Chart 1
61
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Appendix D
Graphical Analysis
Chart 2
62
Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012
Appendix E
GfK MRI Hispanic Data Notes
• GfK MRI has measured Hispanics within its National Study (Survey of the American
Consumer).
• Since 2003, GfK MRI began translating all survey materials into Spanish and hiring
bilingual interviewers to capture the Spanish dominant Hispanic.
• Other enhancements to data sampling since then include:
– Hispanic language capability sample balanced against Nielsen Language estimates
– Additional Hispanic specific demographics (language capability outside the home, language
capability inside the home, country of origin, foreign born, length of time in the U.S., additional
Hispanic adults in the home, how well do you speak English)
– Hispanic specific media (3 Magazines, 135+ Television Programs, 2 Cable stations, 3 Radio
formats, 3 websites)
– Hispanic specific segmentations (Geoscape Hispanicity, Hispanic Cohorts, Hispanic PersonicX)
– Hispanic Networks/Programs available in NPM Fusion database

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AHAA Study: 2012 Hispanic Allocation Impact on Revenue Growth Study Series: Part II - CPG Sector

  • 1. 1 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Revised April 5, 2012 (Nestle & Appendix)
  • 2. 2 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Background Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth Since 1998, AHAA has been helping its members serve its corporate clients through breakthrough independent studies that • increase understanding of what it takes to win the market, • share new concepts • and identify best practices of marketing to Latinos. Most recently, in October 2011, Part 1 of AHAA’s study series on drivers to growth found a strong positive correlation between allocation of ad resources and topline growth. • Hispanic marketing ‘Best-In-Class’ companies have a sustainable competitive growth advantage over the ‘Laggards’.
  • 3. 3 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Hispanic Market Highlights Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth MARKET SIZE – 2010 Population 50.7M1 – 2011 Hispanic Share of US 17%2, 1 in 6 GROWTH – Hispanic Population 2000-2010 CAGR v Non-Hispanic 3.6% v. 0.5%3 – Share of Total US 2000-2010 Growth 56%4 – Share of Labor Force Growth 2010-2020 74%7 ECONOMIC – 2012 Estimated Buying Power $1.2 Trillion5 – Hispanic Buying Power 2000-2010 CAGR v. Non-Hispanic 7.8% v. 3.4%6
  • 4. 4 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Challenge • Companies challenged by anemic growth more than ever – Consumers have changed; more fickle today – Economic downturn will make consumers more frugal and value- oriented over the long run – Technology and new media create both opportunities to reach audiences and complexity as well – Possible “Reset” of economy could structurally impact certain sectors and jobs – Changing demographics (age) and multicultural trends create new potential sources for growth Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
  • 5. 5 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Challenge All companies have growing challenge of balancing competing needs 1. Holding on to ‘General Market’ 2. Finding new growth 3. Capturing fair share of growth markets Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
  • 6. 6 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 About the Author & Sources Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth • The study was commissioned by AHAA’s Research Committee and developed and executed by Santiago Solutions Group (SSG), a growth strategy consultancy. • Independent methodological review performed by Dr. Cristina Garcia, professor of mathematics & statistics at USC. • Financial revenue growth data extracted from companies 10Ks. • Parent company ad spend data for 2006-2010 Hispanic media and non-Hispanic media collected from The Nielsen Company. • Consumer habits, attitudes and values by GfK Roper & GfK MRI syndicated studies with sample of 53K (sampling details in Appendix E)
  • 7. 7 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth Study Objectives Presented by Carlos Santiago, President & Chief Strategist, Santiago Solutions Group Carlos@SantiagoSolutionsGroup.com (818) 736 5661
  • 8. 8 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Is there a significant difference in the revenue growth rate attained by CPG companies which designate higher focus and resources to the Hispanic market and those that focus less? What do they do differently? What factors distinguish companies that capture Hispanic growth successfully from those that underperform with this segment? Study Objectives Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth
  • 9. 9 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Study Variables Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth Aggregate Hispanic Allocation 2006- 2010: Independent variable 1. The input being changed possibly impacting Revenue CAGR. 2. The % of total advertisement dollars spent in TV, Radio, and Print (per Nielsen tracking) assigned to Hispanic-centric media channels throughout 2006 to 2010. 2006-2010 Revenue CAGR: Dependent variable 1. Revenue CAGR is our dependent variable which was tested against different levels of Hispanic Allocation. 2. Revenue as reflected from topline, organic US-only consumer demand per 10Ks. − may have been adjusted to exclude extraordinary transactions and normalize revenue from acquisitions, if enough clear data has been stated in corporate financials.
  • 10. 10 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Methodology Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth A main CPG regression with 39 companies was validated by three other test regression models with larger sample sizes. Four total regression tests • All confirmed the same findings at statistical significance • Details of statistical analysis will follow after Q&A section. Aggregate 06-10 Hispanic Allocation N=211 Aggregate Hispanic 06-10 Allocation AND Year by Year Revenue Growth N=211 Aggregate Hispanic 06- 10 Allocation, Year by Year Revenue Growth, AND Super Categories N=211 CPGs N=39
  • 11. 11 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 CPGs & Retailers in Study
  • 12. 12 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Study Significance Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth All findings discussed in the presentation are statistically significant at a 95% confidence level or better.
  • 13. 13 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth Study Findings
  • 14. 14 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Are CPGs Growth Rates Related to Hispanic Focus? Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth There is a direct & positive relationship between CPG’s Hispanic ad allocation and their topline revenue growth. Please see Appendix D (Graph 1) for Detailed Graph and Graphical Analysis.
  • 15. 15 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Key Findings Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth • Hispanic Allocation alone explains about 35% of CPGs change in topline revenue growth – The other 65% may include other critical factors such as brand awareness/equity, new product development, management focus, measurement tools, distribution, sales force, past performance, community position, organization structure, talent, overall segmentation expertise, etc. – Further analysis is needed to determine what exactly the other drivers of revenue growth are. Hispanic Marketing 35% Other Drivers of Growth 65% CPGs & Retailers Revenue Growth Drivers For Consumer Packaged Goods and their retailers
  • 16. 16 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Key Findings Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth Organic revenue growth rates decline sharply as Hispanic share of budgets decrease and vice versa. 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% Top Allocation (≥70th Percentile) Middle Allocation (40th - 70th Percentile) Low Allocation (<40th Percentile) 7.7% 4.7% 0.9% 6.8% 2.2% 0.6% Allocation Tiers Average 06-10 Hispanic Allocation Average 06-10 Revenue CAGR
  • 17. 17 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Top 30 Percentile Hispanic Marketers By Allocation And Overall Revenue Growth Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth Top 30 Percentile Please see Appendix D (Graph 1) for Detailed Graphical Analysis.
  • 18. 18 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Key Findings All tests validated the same findings. Hispanic Allocation has a direct & significant impact on companies overall revenue growth. Aggregate 06-10 Hispanic Allocation N=211 Aggregate Hispanic 06-10 Allocation AND Year by Year Revenue Growth N=211 Aggregate Hispanic 06- 10 Allocation, Year by Year Revenue Growth, AND Super Categories N=211 CPGs N=39
  • 19. 19 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth Why Hispanic Consumers Are So Important Today?
  • 20. 20 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth Much faster household formation has exponential impact on continued growth opportunity Non-Hispanic Hispanic 2.5%/yr.0.4%/yr.Households CAGR 6x NH CAGR
  • 21. 21 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth Much larger Households means heavier usage Non-Hispanic Hispanic Persons Per HH1 3.82.5 52% larger HH
  • 22. 22 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth Hispanic households food at home expenditures will grow at 5.7% annually, more than twice the rate for Non-Hispanic households of 2.5%. Which Consumer Is Worth More? $- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 $27 $33 $42 $59 $78 $94 $Billion Hispanics Food at HH Expenditures Historic CAGR: 5.4% Forecast CAGR: 5.7%
  • 23. 23 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth The younger age and larger Hispanic household size contributes to Hispanic households having the highest consumer spending potential for necessary spending on Food at Home and Personal Care. Which Consumer Is Worth More? Hispanic Personal Care cumulative lifetime spending is about 33% higher than that of Non- Hispanic White. Hispanic Food at Home cumulative lifetime spending is over 50% higher than that of Non- Hispanic White.
  • 24. 24 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth More influenced by strong brands Hispanics are CPG valuable customers Source: 2011 Doublebase GfK MRI - Base: All (n= 6.6K Hispanics & 46.5K Non-Hispanics) Top Box: Agree Completely or Agree Mostly or Very Important Hispanic Index I am more influenced by what seems hot and what’s not 139 Brand name is the best indication of quality 152 I only buy food items that are name brands, not generic brands 150
  • 25. 25 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth Less price sensitive Hispanics are CPG valuable customers Top Box: Agree Completely or Agree Mostly or Very Important Hispanic Index I’d pay extra for products that are consistent with the image I want to convey 125 I tend to make impulse purchases 117 I know the price I pay for most of the foods & packaged goods I buy 83
  • 26. 26 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Status & Image Conscious Hispanics are CPG valuable customers Top Box: Agree Completely or Agree Mostly or Very Important Hispanic Index I like to live a lifestyle that impresses others 149 I prefer to buy things that my friends/neighbors would approve of 167 Seeking the utmost attractive appearance 122
  • 27. 27 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 See Shopping as Fun Hispanics are CPG valuable customers Top Box: Agree Completely or Agree Mostly or Very Important Hispanic Index I enjoy wandering the store looking for new products 131 I’m always first of friends to try new products/services 145 Shopping is a great way to relax 147
  • 28. 28 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Key Category Influentials Hispanics are CPG valuable customers My family/friends often ask for and trust my advice on this topic Hispanic Index Babies/Children 130 Beer 121 Alcoholic Beverages 135 Beauty 138 Cleaning Products 112 New Food Items 126 Food 112 Snacks 123 Dieting 115 Healthy Lifestyle 112
  • 29. 29 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Conclusions & Implications
  • 30. 30 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Key Takeaways For Consumer Packaged Goods Statistical evidence demonstrates that: • Consistent/significant Hispanic marketers drive superior revenue growth. • Hispanic as a priority drive sustainable growth into future.
  • 31. 31 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth Implications for Companies • Real bottom-line benefits come from consistent approaches. • Marketing is only the beginning, corporate-wide integration and investment is key – Responding to the most appropriate cultural insights – Broad use of all elements of marketing – Developing strategies from communications to customer experience
  • 32. 32 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 The U.S. Hispanic Consumer Opportunity Robert Moskow, Research Analyst Marcela Giraldo, Research Associate robert.moskow@credit-suisse.com (212) 538 3095 marcela.giraldo@credit-suisse.com (212) 325 6764 DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, INFORMATION ON TRADE ALERTS, ANALYST MODEL PORTFOLIOS AND THE STATUS OF NON-U.S ANALYSTS. U.S. Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The materials may not be used or relied upon in any way.
  • 33. 33 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Top Five Observations • Wall Street should be paying more attention to the companies that “get this right” • Good Hispanic marketing companies attract and retain “best-in-class” managers • Commitment from the top and accountability at the bottom are key • Kraft has engineered a turnaround • Goya is the premier asset in Hispanic CPG CREDIT SUISSE (USA), INC.
  • 34. 34 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Why Does Wall Street Tend To Overlook Hispanic Marketing Expertise? Source: Company information. CS estimates Tier Approx. % of Sales To Hispanics Growth Rate With Hispanics Growth Rate With Non- Hispanic U.S. Division Growth Rate Companies Leaders 18% 7.0% 2.5% 3.3% KO, GIS, NESN.VX, MKC Followers 13% 5.5% 2.5% 2.9% KFT, K, UN Laggards 8% 4.0% 2.5% 2.6% HNZ, CPB, HSY, PEP, CAG High/Low Difference 0.7% + Most of these companies have 60% of their sales in North America + Therefore, an incremental 0.7% to North America growth rate translates to only 0.4% for total company sales + In terms of valuation, 0.4% of incremental growth translates to a valuation differential of only 8%  Difficult to isolate the impact of Hispanic marketing on growth rates  Even when you do isolate it, it doesn’t look that meaningful to valuation  Investors attention has shifted to emerging markets
  • 35. 35 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 In reality, “Leaders” have outpaced “Laggards” in North America by 3.1% on average Source: Company information. CS estimates 4.4% 4.6% 3.3% 1.4% 0.7% 1.0% 2.3% 2.9% 1.3% 0.5% 1.4% -0.1% -3.7%-4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Nestle McCormick GeneralMills Colgate P&G Coke Kellogg Kraft Unilever Heinz ConAgra Cambpell Pepsi (beverages) HistoricorganicrevenuegrowthNA(3yrs) Leaders: Average 2.6% Followers: Average 2.2% Laggards: Average -0.5% - Translates into a much more meaningful 20%+ valuation differential!
  • 36. 36 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Good Hispanic Marketing Organizations Attract Best-In-Class Managers • Good managers want to be on the cutting edge of marketing • They create shareholder value Examples • Coke shifting their mindset to the Latin American point-of-sale merchandising approach • General Mills’ leveraging the “Que Rica Vida” platform and partnering with Univision CREDIT SUISSE (USA), INC.
  • 37. 37 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 The trend is to push more of the responsibility into the brand teams Stage 1 • Low level of top management commitment • Young brand managers get assigned to monitor the Hispanic efforts Stage 2 • Creation of a high profile management role to oversee the Hispanic efforts • Creation of a Center of Excellence dedicated to sharing best practices • Support function with no P&L responsibility Stage 3 • Accountability at the brand level for Hispanic sales. • Hispanic advertising budget is integrated within the brands. • ROI goals for Hispanic marketing investment within the brand teams - Coke, Wal-Mart, P&G, Unilever are all doing this - The risk is that upper management lose will some of their control and visibility - Maintaining accountability will be the key to success CREDIT SUISSE (USA), INC.
  • 38. 38 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 2.1% 2.4% 4.4% 13.1% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 2008 2009 2010 2011 (E) Kraft Foods Inc Average group 3X increase in 2011 Kraft has engineered a turnaround • Strong support from top management • The strategy is to increase Hispanic spending on top 10 brands including Oreo, Kool- Aid and Kraft Singles. • Re-established their Latino Center of Excellence in 2008 Risks • It’s hard to regain momentum after several years away • Spin off of companies may dilute Hispanic efforts and impact scale advantage Kool-Aid, in a first for any Kraft brand, has allocated the majority of its 2011 marketing budget to reach Hispanics Source: NY Times Source: Kantar media. KFT’s management comments Hispanic Advertising Investment as % of Total CREDIT SUISSE (USA), INC.
  • 39. 39 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Mexican 65.7% Other 5.1%Central American 8.3% Cuban 3.4% Puerto Rican 9.0% Dominican 2.8% South American 5.8% Goya is the premier asset in the Hispanic food space • 75-year-old family-owned and family-managed company • Approximately $1B in annual revenues • Best at understanding food preferences by country of origin • Tailor product portfolio by region in the US • Relationships with bodegas are important asset US Hispanic Population by Country of Origin Source: www.goya.com Source: U.S. Census 2008 Caribbean Mexican Central And South American CREDIT SUISSE (USA), INC.
  • 40. 40 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Companies Mentioned (Price as of 06 Mar 12) Campbell Soup Company (CPB, $33.04, NEUTRAL, TP $33.00) Clorox Co. (CLX, $67.92, NEUTRAL, TP $72.00) Colgate-Palmolive (CL, $93.35, NEUTRAL, TP $90.00) ConAgra Foods, Inc. (CAG, $26.36, NEUTRAL, TP $27.00) Danone (DANO.PA, Eu50.58, UNDERPERFORM, TP Eu44.00) General Mills (GIS, $38.60, NEUTRAL, TP $41.00) H.J. Heinz Company (HNZ, $53.09, NEUTRAL, TP $54.00) Hormel Foods (HRL, $28.50, NEUTRAL, TP $32.00) Kellogg Company (K, $52.09, NEUTRAL, TP $56.00) Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB, $72.66) Kraft Foods, Inc. (KFT, $38.35, OUTPERFORM, TP $45.00) McCormick & Company (MKC, $50.82, NEUTRAL, TP $50.00) Nestle (NESN.VX, SFr55.30, NEUTRAL, TP SFr58.00) PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP, $62.79) Procter & Gamble Co. (PG, $66.95, OUTPERFORM, TP $70.00) Ralcorp (RAH, $74.41, NEUTRAL, TP $75.00) Reckitt Benckiser (RB.L, 3469 p, OUTPERFORM, TP 3,800.00 p) Sara Lee Corporation (SLE, $21.24, NEUTRAL, TP $20.00) The Coca-Cola Company (KO, $69.23) The Hershey Company (HSY, $60.93, OUTPERFORM, TP $68.00) Disclosure Appendix Important Global Disclosures I, Robert Moskow, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names. 3-Year Price, Target Price and Rating Change History Chart for NESN.VX NESN.VX Closing Price Target Price Initiation/ Date (SFr) (SFr) Rating Assumption 16-Nov-09 47.88 55 11-Feb-10 49.69 60 30-Nov-10 54.55 N 9-Jun-11 53.15 55 11-Jul-11 52.6 R 16-Dec-11 51.2 58 N 55 60 55 58 N R N 35 40 45 50 55 60 7-Mar-097-May-09 7-Jul-097-Sep-09 7-Nov-09 7-Jan-107-Mar-107-May-10 7-Jul-10 7-Sep-10 7-Nov-10 7-Jan-117-Mar-117-May-11 7-Jul-117-Sep-11 7-Nov-11 7-Jan-12 Closing Price Target Price Initiation/Assumption Rating SFr O=Outperform; N=Neutral; U=Underperform; R=Restricted; NR=Not Rated; NC=Not Covered 3-Year Price, Target Price and Rating Change History Chart for HSY HSY Closing Price Target Price Initiation/ Date (US$) (US$) Rating Assumption 3/24/09 35.41 30 U 7/8/09 37.01 33 7/24/09 40.97 43 N 12/31/09 35.79 R 2/1/10 36.81 40 N 4/22/10 48.08 50 7/23/10 47.21 52 2/2/11 48.61 55 O 2/28/11 52.32 56 3/18/11 53.87 58 4/26/11 57.27 64 10/21/11 60.26 70 10/27/11 57.46 68 30 33 43 40 50 52 55 56 58 64 70 68 O NR N U 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 3/7/09 5/7/09 7/7/09 9/7/09 11/7/09 1/7/10 3/7/10 5/7/10 7/7/10 9/7/10 11/7/10 1/7/11 3/7/11 5/7/11 7/7/11 9/7/11 11/7/11 1/7/12 Closing Price Target Price Initiation/Assumption Rating US$ O=Outperform; N=Neutral; U=Underperform; R=Restricted; NR=Not Rated; NC=Not Covered The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities. 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Price Target: (12 months) for (NESN.VX) Method: Our price target is based on our APV (adjusted present value), a hybrid DCF that splits the operating cash flows (discounted at the cost of equity), and the tax shield (discounted at the cost of debt). A terminal growth rate of 2.5% is assumed Risks: Significant movements in raw material costs or currency can impact the business, as can irrational behaviour by either competitors or retailers. Food scares, shortages, or contamination can also impact the business. Price Target: (12 months) for (HSY) Method: Our 12-month target price of $68/share implies a 19x P/E multiple against our 2013 estimate. 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  • 42. 42 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Q & A Discussion
  • 43. 43 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Statistical Detail & Model Validation Presented by Dr. Cristina Garcia Math & Statistics Professor at USC SSG Methodology Advisor
  • 44. 44 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Methodology Highlights • Started by looking at the Top 500 overall Advertisers (TV, Radio, Print) by year and in aggregate between. • Matched each parent company to available published financial revenue data, and calculated 2006-2010 compounded annual growth rates. • Companies which did not have consistent published financials such as companies which grew on M&As that weren’t adjustable rather than organic consumer driven growth were eliminated from the final regression set. Top 500 U.S. Overall Advertisers 2006-2010 (500) Public (418) Consistent Advertisers (220) Publicly Traded w/ clear Organic US Revenue (211) CPGs (39) Unadjustable M&As Inconsistent Data (-9) Inconsistent Advertisers (-198) Private (-82)
  • 45. 45 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Test Validations All models validated the same findings. Hispanic Allocation has a direct & significant impact on companies overall revenue growth. Aggregate 06-10 Hispanic Allocation N=211 Aggregate Hispanic 06-10 Allocation AND Year by Year Revenue Growth N=211 Aggregate Hispanic 06- 10 Allocation, Year by Year Revenue Growth, AND Super Categories N=211 CPGs N=39
  • 46. 46 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Consumer Packaged Goods Regression Model • Hispanic Allocation alone explains about 35% of changes in revenue growth over a 5 year period for Consumer Packaged Goods (R2=0.35) – An R squared of .35, tells us that roughly 35% of a company’s revenue growth is driven by changes in Hispanic Allocation. – The expected range for a 1 percent increase in Hispanic allocation is an increase of .48% to 1.28% in overall corporate revenue growth rate. Revenue Growth over 5 year period (CAGR 06-10) Aggregate Hispanic Allocation 2006-2010 CPG (N=39)
  • 47. 47 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 CPG Model Findings – For every additional percentage point increase in Hispanic allocation, we would expect revenue growth of 0.883% over the 5 years for Consumer Packaged Goods – In other words, on average, a 10% allocation of a CPG company’s ad spend to Hispanic media over 5 years would generate revenue growth of 8.83% over the 5 year period. Hispanic Marketing 35% All Other Drivers of Growth 65% Revenue Growth Drivers for CPGs & Retailers
  • 48. 48 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Test 1: Is Aggregate Hispanic Allocation Important? YES! Hispanic Allocation directly impacts topline revenue growth for Top 500 Advertisers • On average, for every additional percentage point increase in Hispanic allocation, we would expect revenue growth of .40% over the 5 years. • In other words, allocating 10% of the company’s ad spend to Hispanic media over 5 years would generate revenue growth of 4.00% over the 5 year period Aggregate Growth CAGR 06-10 Aggregate Hispanic Allocation 06-10 TOP ADVERTISERS (N=211)
  • 49. 49 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 TEST 2: Individual Years Growth and Aggregate Hispanic Allocation Revalidated! Both directly impact topline revenue growth Revenue Growth over 5 year period Aggregate Hispanic Allocation 06-10 CAGR 06-07, 07-08, 08-09, 09-10 • Of course, each year’s CAGR most significantly affects the company’s revenue growth over 5 years • R-square 0.608 In other words, 60.8% of the variation in growth over the 5 years (CAGR 06- 10) is explained by the ad spend in Hispanic media over the 5 years and each year’s annual growth. • On average, for every additional percentage point increase in Hispanic allocation, we would expect revenue growth of .34% over the 5 years. • In other words, allocating 10% of the company’s ad spend to Hispanic media over 5 years would generate revenue growth of 3.44% over the 5 year period.TOP ADVERTISERS (N=211)
  • 50. 50 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Test 3: Hispanic Allocation, Super Categories and Revenue CAGR Revalidated Again! Hispanic Allocation Is Relevant to Revenue Growth! Revenue Growth over 5 year period Categories: Auto, Tech & Entertainme nt, Retail, CPG, Finance/Insu rance CAGR: 06-07, 07-08, 08- 09, 09-10 Hispanic Allocation: 06-10 • R-square .64, in other words, 64% of the variation in growth over the 5 years (CAGR 06-10) is explained by the ad spend in Hispanic media over the 5 years and each annual year’s growth. • On average, for every additional percentage point increase in Hispanic allocation, we would expect revenue growth of 0.29% over the 5 years. • In other words, allocating 10% of the company’s ad spend to Hispanic media over 5 years would generate revenue growth of 2.89% over the 5 year period TOP ADVERTISERS (N=211)
  • 51. 51 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 1 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth Conclusions of Tests • In all tests, Hispanic Allocation consistently comes up as a statistically significant variable positively affecting revenue growth rates. – Along with showing the importance of investing in the Hispanic market, our model also shows that performance during the turn into the recession 2007 to 2008 and recovery from the recession 2009 to 2010 time periods serve as good indicators for relative long term performance (06-10).
  • 52. 52 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Appendix
  • 53. 53 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Sectors/Super Categories Breakdown Top 500 Advertisers Super- Categories Included Auto Packaged Goods Omitted Advertisers (Reasons) Private Gov’t Non- Profits
  • 54. 54 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Appendix A Ranking By Hispanic Allocation Company 2006-2010 Hispanic Allocation Percentage Rank Percentile 2006-2010 Revenue Growth Rate WALGREEN CO 10.05% 1 100.00% 9.20% WAL-MART STORES INC 9.70% 2 97.30% 5.12% COCA-COLA CO 8.79% 3 94.70% 12.39% CLOROX CO 8.09% 4 92.10% 3.30% RALCORP HOLDINGS 8.08% 5 89.40% 11.82% GROUPE DANONE 7.81% 6 86.80% 11.82% KIMBERLY-CLARK CORP 7.09% 7 84.20% 2.74% UNILEVER 6.92% 8 81.50% 1.39% TARGET CORP 6.68% 9 78.90% 3.25% GENERAL MILLS INC 6.27% 10 76.30% 6.50% NESTLE SA 6.25% 11 73.60% 7.45% LOREAL SA 6.20% 12 71.00% 3.86% PROCTER & GAMBLE CO 6.13% 13 68.40% 2.30% HERSHEY CO 5.72% 14 65.70% 2.22% TYSON FOODS INC 5.71% 15 63.10% 3.70% BROWN-FORMAN CORP 5.09% 16 60.50% 1.62% CVS/CAREMARK CORP 5.01% 17 57.80% 5.03% JM SMUCKER CO 4.90% 18 55.20% 3.44% BEIERSDORF AG 4.11% 19 52.60% -1.34%
  • 55. 55 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Ranking By Hispanic Allocation Cont. Company 2006-2010 Hispanic Allocation Percentage Rank Percentile 2006-2010 Revenue Growth Rate PEPSICO INC 3.80% 20 50.00% -0.21% KRAFT FOODS INC 3.77% 21 47.30% 0.90% DIAGEO PLC 3.53% 22 44.70% 2.73% KELLOGG CO 3.42% 23 42.10% 3.40% ESTEE LAUDER COS 2.80% 24 39.40% -0.03% BIG LOTS INC 2.33% 25 36.80% 1.08% CONAGRA FOODS INC 2.24% 26 34.20% 1.06% HORMEL FOODS CORP 1.97% 27 31.50% 5.60% PERNOD RICARD SA 1.57% 28 28.90% 3.06% LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SA 0.64% 29 26.30% 3.91% MCCORMICK & CO INC 0.55% 30 23.60% 5.01% SARA LEE CORP 0.53% 31 21.00% -9.25% FORTUNE BRANDS INC 0.53% 32 18.40% -4.32% HENKEL KGAA 0.48% 33 15.70% -0.78% CHURCH & DWIGHT CO 0.26% 34 13.10% 7.40% DEAN FOODS CO 0.20% 35 10.50% 4.67% CAMPBELL SOUP CO 0.15% 36 7.80% 2.98% KAO CORP 0.13% 37 5.20% -4.50% NEWELL RUBBERMAID 0.04% 38 2.60% -3.76% NUTRI/SYSTEM INC 0.01% 39 0.00% -2.59%
  • 56. 56 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Appendix B Ranking By Growth Rate Company 2006-2010 Revenue Growth Rate Rank Percentile 2006-2010 Hispanic Allocation COCA-COLA CO 12.39% 1 100.00% 8.79% RALCORP HOLDINGS 11.82% 2 97.30% 8.08% GROUPE DANONE 11.82% 3 94.70% 7.81% WALGREEN CO 9.20% 4 92.10% 10.05% NESTLE SA 7.45% 5 89.40% 6.25% CHURCH & DWIGHT CO INC 7.40% 6 86.80% 0.26% GENERAL MILLS INC 6.50% 7 84.20% 6.27% HORMEL FOODS CORP 5.60% 8 81.50% 1.97% WAL-MART STORES INC 5.12% 9 78.90% 9.70% CVS/CAREMARK CORP 5.03% 10 76.30% 5.01% MCCORMICK & CO INC 5.01% 11 73.60% 0.55% DEAN FOODS CO 4.67% 12 71.00% 0.20% LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SA 3.91% 13 68.40% 0.64% LOREAL SA 3.86% 14 65.70% 6.20% TYSON FOODS INC 3.70% 15 63.10% 5.71% JM SMUCKER CO 3.44% 16 60.50% 4.90% KELLOGG CO 3.40% 17 57.80% 3.42% CLOROX CO 3.30% 18 55.20% 8.09% TARGET CORP 3.25% 19 52.60% 6.68%
  • 57. 57 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth Ranking By Growth Rate Cont. Company 2006-2010 Revenue Growth Rate Rank Percentile 2006-2010 Hispanic Allocation PERNOD RICARD SA 3.06% 20 50.00% 1.57% CAMPBELL SOUP CO 2.98% 21 47.30% 0.15% KIMBERLY-CLARK CORP 2.74% 22 44.70% 7.09% DIAGEO PLC 2.73% 23 42.10% 3.53% PROCTER & GAMBLE CO 2.30% 24 39.40% 6.13% HERSHEY CO 2.22% 25 36.80% 5.72% BROWN-FORMAN CORP 1.62% 26 34.20% 5.09% UNILEVER 1.39% 27 31.50% 6.92% BIG LOTS INC 1.08% 28 28.90% 2.33% CONAGRA FOODS INC 1.06% 29 26.30% 2.24% KRAFT FOODS INC 0.90% 30 23.60% 3.77% ESTEE LAUDER COS INC -0.03% 31 21.00% 2.80% PEPSICO INC -0.21% 32 18.40% 3.80% HENKEL KGAA -0.78% 33 15.70% 0.48% BEIERSDORF AG -1.34% 34 13.10% 4.11% NUTRI/SYSTEM INC -2.59% 35 10.50% 0.01% NEWELL RUBBERMAID INC -3.76% 36 7.80% 0.04% FORTUNE BRANDS INC -4.32% 37 5.20% 0.53% KAO CORP -4.50% 38 2.60% 0.13% SARA LEE CORP -9.25% 39 0.00% 0.53%
  • 58. 58 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Appendix C Regression Analysis Results Test 1 Test 2 Test 3 CPG Model Variable in Model Unstandarized Beta Standardized Beta (Significance) Unstandarized Beta Standardized Beta (Significance) Unstandarized Beta Standardized Beta (Significance) Unstandarized Beta Standardized Beta (Significance) CAGR 06-07 NA .038 .189 (.000) .039 .195 (.000) NA CAGR 07-08 NA .291 .511 (.000) .269 .472 (.000) NA CAGR 08-09 NA .019 .202 (.000) .016 .176 (.000) NA CAGR 09-10 NA .435 .581 (.000) .448 .598 (.000) NA Hispanic Allocation 06-10 .396 .143 (.037) .344 .125 (.005) .288 .104 (.018) .883 .592 (.000) Auto NA NA -5.458 -.128 (.007) NA Insurance/Finance NA NA 2.229 .042 (.385) NA Technology NA NA 4.095 .112 (.026) NA Retail NA NA 1.226 .037 (.459) NA CPG NA NA 2.399 .068 (.168) NA R-Square .021 .608 .644 .350 N = 211 211 211 39 Dependent Variable CAGR 06-10
  • 59. 59 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Appendix D Graphical Analysis Graph 1
  • 60. 60 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Appendix D Graphical Analysis Chart 1
  • 61. 61 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Appendix D Graphical Analysis Chart 2
  • 62. 62 Hispanic Allocation on Revenue Growth, 3/7/2012 Appendix E GfK MRI Hispanic Data Notes • GfK MRI has measured Hispanics within its National Study (Survey of the American Consumer). • Since 2003, GfK MRI began translating all survey materials into Spanish and hiring bilingual interviewers to capture the Spanish dominant Hispanic. • Other enhancements to data sampling since then include: – Hispanic language capability sample balanced against Nielsen Language estimates – Additional Hispanic specific demographics (language capability outside the home, language capability inside the home, country of origin, foreign born, length of time in the U.S., additional Hispanic adults in the home, how well do you speak English) – Hispanic specific media (3 Magazines, 135+ Television Programs, 2 Cable stations, 3 Radio formats, 3 websites) – Hispanic specific segmentations (Geoscape Hispanicity, Hispanic Cohorts, Hispanic PersonicX) – Hispanic Networks/Programs available in NPM Fusion database