Describes a new approach for rapidly developing policies and strategies to keep pace with a fast-changing world.

1. A Fast-Changing World
Needs Agile Policies
Albert Simard
Defence R&D Canada
Presented to
INFONEX Strategic Policy Development
Ottawa, ON Nov 27-28, 2013

2. Outline
New Reality
Probing
Sense-Making
Adapting
M. C. Escher (1957)
1

3. Reality
New Reality
Accelerating change
Complex world
Agile framework
2

4. Reality
Traditional Policy Time Scale
Old Policy
5-7 years
Policy Change
New Policy
2-3 years
5-7 years
3

5. Adapting
Traditional Policy Change
Create Urgency
Establish Coalition
Develop Plan
Provide Incentives
Empower Action
Early Success
Maintain Momentum
Institutionalize
Kotter (2002)
Like great ships, government agencies
are slow to change direction
4

6. Technology Adoption
Reality
5

7. Time to Reach 50 Million Users
Reality
Million
Users
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
250
500
750
1000
1250 1500
Days
1750
2000 2250
6

8. Reality
21st Century Challenges
Safety &
Security
Information
Society
Globalization
Accelerating
Change
International
Partnerships
Complex
Technologies
Finite
Resources
Diverse
Workforce
US National Science
Foundation (2001)
Knowledge
Economy
Life-Long
Learning
Citizen
Engagement
Sustainable
Development
7

9. Reality
Responding to Change
Agile
Traditional
8

10. Reality
Agile Approach to Policy
Detect
Pattern
Adapt
(rapid)
Modular Approach
Probe
(continuous)
9

11. Environmental Change Life Cycle
Full
Too Late
Late
Data &
Knowledge
Middle
Early
Adaptation
Window
Detection
None
Origin
Start
Finish
Time
10

12. Adaptation Decision Framework
Importance of pattern: low (1), medium (2), high (3)
Existing knowledge: inadequate (1), partial (2), adequate (3)
Available data: inadequate (1), partial (2), adequate (3)
Resource implications: high (1), medium (2), low (3)
Risks of inaction: low (1), medium (2), high (3)
Likely impact: minimal (1), moderate (2), significant (3)
6-11points - DEFER; 12-17 points - MAYBE; 18-24 points - ACT
No hard answers; judgement
and experience are necessary
11

13. Traditional Policy Development Cycle
Reality
Issue
Identification
Evaluation
Implementation
Environmental
Scan
Organization
Decision
(Australian Policy
Handbook)
Strategy
Development
Consultation
Coordination
12

14. Reality
Agile Policy Framework
Probing
Adapting
(What do we do?)
(What’s happening?)
SenseMaking
(What does it mean?)
13

15. Outline
New Reality
Probing
Sense-Making
Adapting
M. C. Escher (1957)
14

16. Probing
Probing (Evaluation, Emerging Trends)
Passive (monitoring, social networks)
Active (intelligence, soliciting)
Internal (documents, expertise)
15

17. Environmental Monitoring
Research
Cyberspace
Published
Literature
Monitor
search
filter
scan
Conferences
Media
Experience
Communities
of practice
Individuals
Practitioners
Share
Incentives
Corroborate
Document
Ad hoc
Expertise
Office apps.
Repository
Store
(DRDC Knowledge
Services, 2012)
Probing
Validation
16

18. Monitoring Cyberspace
Anticipate emerging issue
Anticipate stakeholder actions
Discover new stakeholders
Discover potential partners
Learn from others
Learn about new technology
Monitor institutional changes
Monitor public opinion
Find useful information
Detect new risks
Only way to keep up with accelerating change

19. Social Networks
Probing
Monitoring must be focussed
18

20. Intelligence Sources
Public Domain
Government Documents
Annual reports
Analyst reports
Public databases
Speeches
Broadcast media
Print media
Trade associations
World-Wide Web
Probing
Non-Public Domain
Change of status
Human intelligence
Trade shows
Ask employees
Ask clients
Observation
Aerial survey
19

21. Source Diversity
Passive
Active
Probing
Increased visibility, awareness, or influence
Seen as active and competent player
Feedback on user needs and applications
Leverage the value of organizational resources
Increase partnership and business opportunities
Organizational business or mandate
Influencing attitudes, opinions, or behavior
Advocating a position, agenda, or policy
Intervening in stakeholder or social activity
20

22. Probing
Soliciting Inputs
Client interviews
Consultations
Expert opinion
Stakeholder surveys
User feedback
Workshops
Colloquia
21

23. Probing
Internal Inputs
Mobilize
Knowledge
Create
Knowledge
Acquire
Content
Publish
Futures
Analysis
Corporate
Reporting
Individual
Learning
Produce
Intelligence
Operations
Environmental
Monitoring
Share
Experience
incentives
Office apps.
Repository
Capture
(DRDC Knowledge
Services, 2012)
SenseMaking
22

24. Sharing Attributes
Probing
Incentives and motivation
Trust and safety
Organizational culture
Content security
Individual privacy
Different expertise
Control and hoarding
Large distances
Different languages
23

25. Outline
New Reality
Probing
Sense-Making
Adapting
M. C. Escher (1957)
24

26. Sense-Making
Sense-Making
Analysis
Synthesis
Interpretation
Validation
25

27. Analysis Spectrum
Sense-Making
Quantitative (irrefutable)
mathematics, logic, proof
science, engineering, technology
statistics, data, facts, measurement
collaboration, validation, management
expertise, experience, judgement
opinion, perception, bias
belief, emotion, values
Qualitative (no evidence)
26

28. Analysis Principles
•
•
•
•
Sense-Making
Resources are required: time, effort, expertise, funding,
capacity, technology, data, knowledge
Complexity is inherent: strategic analysis is non-linear,
involves feedback, iterations, delays, and uncertainty
Methods are known: techniques are well-understood;
extensive literature for most disciplines
Management perspectives: understanding, trust,
confidence, liabilities, risk, externalities
Analysis combines science & computers; skill &
technique, judgement & experience; insight & intuition.
27

29. Sense-Making
Two Approaches
Analysis: Using deduction to
differentiate and study
data, information, or knowledge to
deduce deeper or more precise
meaning or understanding. (Scientific
approach)
Synthesis: Using induction to
integrate and study many processes
as a whole to infer higher-level
meaning or understanding. (Systems
People tend to be good at analysis
approach)
or synthesis; few are good at both.
28

30. Sense-Making
Analysis Is a Human Activity
Collect information from people and organizations.
Organize data based on individual perspectives.
Classify issues based on human understanding.
Select analytical methods using expert knowledge.
Interpret results through cognitive reasoning.
Validate results through dialogue and collaboration.
Experience and judgement are essential
29

31. Community of Practice
Sense-Making
People with common expertise, skill, or profession
(position, work, colleagues)
Government, department
Sector, branch, division
Policy analysts, regulators
Finance, purchasing
Scientists, lawyers
Information technologists
30

32. Sense-Making
Communities Validate Knowledge
Knowledge exists in the minds of people. Experience is as
important as formal knowledge.
Knowledge is tacit as well as explicit. Transferring tacit
knowledge is more effective through human interaction.
Knowledge is social as well as individual. Today’s
knowledge is the result of centuries of collective research.
Knowledge is changing at an accelerating rate. It takes a
community of people to keep up with new
concepts, practices, and technology.
31

33. Sense-Making
Communities Emphasize Collaboration
Dialogue, conversations in groups
Sharing, exchanges among peers
Candor, freedom of expression
Trust, safety, honesty
Transparency, openness
Agreed rules of conduct
Diversity, flexibility, outliers
Equality, meritocracy of ideas
Collective, not individual benefit
32

34. Sense-Making
Harvesting Community Outputs
Service Center: repository for community outputs; interface
with communities, minimize duplication, inform communities
Leader: transfer community outputs; Identify emerging
trends, prioritize issues
Sponsor: endorse community outputs; bridge between the
community and the organization, provide support, minimize
organizational barriers
Champion: ensure adoption of community outputs;
communicate purpose, promote the community
33

35. Outline
New Reality
Probing
Sense-Making
Adapting
M. C. Escher (1957)
34

36. Adapting
Adapting
Structure (planning, integrating, interaction)
Approve (decision, authorizing)
Implement (steps, incentives, sustaining)
35

37. Adapting
Planning Change
Create vision
Determine objectives
Establish milestones
Schedule work
Integrate changes
Social Interaction
Document results
Recommend action
36

38. Adapting
Integrating Change
Validated
Inputs
People
Governance
Processes
Technology
Content,
Services
Integrated
Change
37

39. Social Interaction Framework
Collaboration
Mutual
Negotiation
joint or peer production
partnership approach
high trust
diverse, synergistic
Adapting
mutual agreement
adversarial approach
nominal trust
structured, formal
Interests
Sharing
Autonomous
leverage knowledge
passive approach
moderate trust
benign, supportive
Competition
defence or victory
aggressive approach
no trust
secretive, hostile
Compatible
Conflicting
Goals
38

40. Adapting
Decision Maker Perspectives
Accountable for actions
Situational pressure
Broader view than analysis
Depth of understanding
Involvement in planning
Confidence in results
Risk tolerance
Previous experience
Belief system
Emotions
39

41. DRDC Environmental Management System
“Continual”
Improvement
Annual
Report
Event
response
Management
Review
Environmental
Policy
Planning
Checking
Implementation
40

42. Main Messages
Traditional policy approaches are
too slow in a rapidly-changing
world.
Continuous probing monitors
effectiveness and detects
emerging patterns.
Sense-making interprets and
validates patterns and trends.
Agile policies are essential to
keeping pace with a dynamic
world.
41

43. albert.simard@drdc-rddc.gc.ca
Knowledge Services: A Synthesis of Best Practices
http://cradpdf.drdc-rddc.gc.ca/PDFS/unc121/p536618_A1b.pdf