The document discusses Brazil's sugarcane breeding programs and their ability to develop varieties adapted to climate change. It notes that Brazil is the world's largest sugarcane producer but that production indicators have recently fallen, in part due to climate impacts like drought. It describes the country's major breeding programs and their efforts to create varieties with improved drought tolerance, heat resistance, and other stress-adapted traits that will help the sugarcane sector adapt to climate change impacts in the coming decades. Interviews with breeders identified challenges like long variety development timelines, weakened public research systems, lack of climate change awareness among farmers, and the need for new policies to support adaptation in the sugarcane industry.

1. THE ADAPTATION OF SUGARCANE TO
CLIMATE CHANGES: OBSERVATIONS
ABOUT THE BRAZILIAN BREEDING.
Silvia Angélica D. de Carvalho, PhD
André T. Furtado, PhD
Departament of Science and Technology Policy
Geoscience Institute – UNICAMP

2. 1. OBJECTIVE AND METHODOLOGY
 Objective:
 It presents some observations about sugarcane
breeding in Brazil and it analyzes the country's ability to
provide adapted varieties to climate changes,
maintaining its current position of major producer;
 Methodology:
 Literature review;
 Interviews carried out with coordinators from some
Brazilians breeding programs;
 Survey of secondary data;

3.  Research objectives:
 Investigating the main sugarcane breeding programs in Brazil, identifying the
main technological challenges for the crop related to the adaptation to climate
changes and supporting the formulation of public policies focused on the
sugar and alcohol sector
 Thematic Project - ALCSCENS: Generation of Alcohol Production
Scenarios as Support for the Formulation of Public Policies Applied to the
Adaptation of the National Sugar and Alcohol Industry to the Climate
Changes;
2. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN ALCOHOL
PRODUCTION AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES
It’s inserted in the Research Program of Global Climate
Changes at Research Foundation of São Paulo State – FAPESP

4. Expansion
Potential, Pressure, Demand,
Economical Interest, Land, Technology
Constraints
& Impacts
Environment, Food Security, Tax Burden
Demographic Dynamics, Infrastructure
Human Health, Harvest Forecast
2. The importance of studying the Sugarcane and Alcohol Sector:

5. Demography
Climatology
Politics
Food Security
Modeling
Scientific
Communication
Genetic
Engineering
Geo-technology
Agriculture
Health
2. Thematic Project: the sugarcane sector adaptation depends on the interaction and
adaptation of all these areas.

6. Home page: www.cpa.unicamp.br/alcscens

7.  Brazil is the world’s largest producer of sugar and
alcohol;
 The sugarcane production grew 143% in the decade
2000-2010;
 Strong growth is due to the intensification of
domestic and foreign demands for sugar and alcohol;
3. BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE SECTOR

8. Source: Ministry of Agriculture - Anuário Estatístico da Agroenergia 2010/ Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento.
Secretaria de Produção e Agroenergia – Brasília, : MAPA /SPAE, 2ª ed., 2011. 223 p.
Harvest-Year
Millionsoftons
GROWTH OF SUGARCANE BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION

9. (yield t/ha) (Planted area) (Harvested area)
(Tonnesperhectares)
(Millionsofhectares)
EVOLUTION OF THE PRODUCTION AREA AND THE
PRODUCTIVITY OF BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE
Source: Ministry of Agriculture - Anuário Estatística da Agroenergia 2010/ Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento.
Secretaria de Produção e Agroenergia – Brasília, : MAPA /SPAE, 2ª ed., 2011. 223 p.

10. Millionsofm3
Harvests
Source: Ministry of Agriculture - Anuário Estatística da Agroenergia 2010/ Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento.
Secretaria de Produção e Agroenergia – Brasília, : MAPA /SPAE, 2ª ed., 2011. 223 p.
EVOLUTION OF ETHANOL BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION

11. EVOLUTION OF SUGAR BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION
Millionsoftonnes
Harvests

12.  But, in recent harvests, some indicators start to fall:
3. BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE SECTOR
harvest
2010/2011
harvest
2011/2012
Percentage
change
Planted area (thousand ha) 8,056.0 8,981.5 11,49
Yield (ton/ha) 77,45 68,29 -11,82
Production (thousand ton) 623,905.3 571,471.0 -8,4
Sugar Production (thousand ton) 38,168.4 36,882.0 -3,37
Alcohol Production (thousand m3) 27,595.5 22,857.6 -17,17
What is happening?
Why are the indicators falling?

13.  There are some structural problems such as lack of
renewal sugarcane planted area, and besides...
 The climate had an important role in the drops just
mentioned:
 Extension of the dry season;
 Instability of rainfall, more intense and in short period;
 Absence of rain in significant periods of plant development
 And so on...
3. BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE SECTOR

14. 4. SUGARCANE AND CLIMATE SCENARIOS
 São Paulo State, the largest Brazilian producer, has fertile
lands and very favorable climatic conditions;
 The new areas of crop expansion have worst conditions: poor
soil, high temperature and water stress. For example, the North
of São Paulo and the Midwest of the country;
 The Brazilian climate scenarios (PINTO & ASSAD, 2008)
estimated that the increase in temperature will promote an
increase in water stress, leading to a raise in areas with high
climatic risks;
 According to these scenarios, sugarcane is one of the few crops
that should have significant expansion of the productive area.
Reference: Pinto, H.S. & Assad, E.D. Global Warming and the New Geography of Agricultural Production in Brazil.
British Embassy, 2008.

15.  Recent studies bring some reservations to this strong
expansion of the sugarcane – Gonçalves et al (2011):
 The temperature rise expected in the coming decades can
be generally suitable for sugarcane, but the influence of
water for the crop is large, especially during vegetative
growth.
 As the water stress has been observed precisely in the
sugarcane vegetative growing period, there may be a
significant drop in the productivity of sugarcane (like
occurred in the last harvests).
4. SUGARCANE AND CLIMATE SCENARIOS
Reference: GONÇALVES, R. R. V. et al Análise comparativa do clima atual e futuro para avaliar a expansão da
cana-de-açúcar em São Paulo. XVII Congresso Brasileiro de Agrometeorologia , Guarapari – ES, 2011.

16.  Thus, the temperature rise associated with increasing water
stress may lead to an increase in production costs by requiring
the use of other technologies such as irrigation; (and adapted
varieties)
4. SUGARCANE AND CLIMATE SCENARIOS
So, the research and development of highly
productive varieties are essential to ensure
the adaptation of this crop.

17.  Traditional Brazilian centers of sugarcane breeding have been
responsible for major advances in productivity and they are still
the basis of technological development in the sector;
 The sugarcane yield grew 30% in 30 years thanks to the genetic
breeding and support of public research programs, like
PROALCOHOL;
 Leading Brazilians genetic breeding institutes:
 University Network for Development of the Sugar-Ethanol Sector –
RIDESA*;
 Sugarcane Tecnology Center – CTC*;
 Agronomic Institute of Campinas – IAC*;
* initials in Portuguese
5. SUGARCANE GENETIC BREEDING

18. 5. SUGARCANE GENETIC BREEDING
 University Network for Development of the Sugar-Ethanol
Sector – RIDESA
 It was founded in 1991 and owns 59% of the sugarcane planted
varieties in Brazil;
 It represents a network composed by 10 federal universities
located in various regions of the country and...
 Because of this, RIDESA can develop a wide range of sugarcane
varieties suitable for different Brazilian climates and soils;
 In 20 years of history, it developed 59 sugarcane varieties;
 In March/2011, it presented 13 new varieties: 2 of them with
features such as rusticity and water stress tolerance;

19.  Sugarcane Tecnology Center – CTC
 This center was owned by COOPERSUCAR – Sugar and Alcohol
Producers Cooperative; currently, a private institution;
 It has the largest and the most complete collection of sugarcane
germplasm in the country;
 When the collection was owned by Coopersucar, it was a public source
of research, nowadays it is used only for CTC;
 CTC owns 38% of the sugarcane planted varieties in Brazil;
 Last year, CTC launched two new varieties with resistance to
water stress;
 It is developing transgenic varieteis resistant to water stress;
5. SUGARCANE GENETIC BREEDING

20.  Agronomic Institute of Campinas - IAC
 It is the forerunner of the agricultural research in Brazil and it
gave the start to study of sugarcane crop in the country;
 Between the 40s-50s, it launched the first Brazilian range
of sugarcane varieties;
 It lost space in the 80s-90s with changes in the government
public policies;
 IAC has been restructured and, in 2005, it founded the Advanced
Center of Sugarcane in partnership with the State Government of
São Paulo;
 It has experiments in the Central-West of the country for varieties
resistant to water stress and high temperatures;
5. SUGARCANE GENETIC BREEDING

21. AVANCED CENTER OF SUGARCANE - IAC
sugarcane seedlings grown for selection
(April 13, 2012)

22. ADVANCE CENTER OF SUGARCANE - IAC
Sampler of sugarcane varieteis avaible to plant.
(April 13, 2012)

23. 6. RESULTS
 In the first interviews carried out, some limitations for sugar
and alcohol sector adaptation in Brazil were identified:
1. Long development period of a variety until it is ready for
commercialization (12 to 15 years):
 To ensure the sectorial adaptation, the investment on adapted varieties
must start now, since the 2050 scenarios show increase in temperature
and in water stress;
2. Weakening of the public research system, giving rise to
structural difficulties such as:
 lack of resources for hiring qualified personnel and buying modern
equipment;
 lack of government financial support, forcing the breeding programs to get
involved mostly with farmers’ urgent needs;

24. 3. Incompatibility between private logic and technological change
to tackle climate change
4. farmers are unaware of climate change scenarios and their
consequences, so they don’t invest in development of adapted
varieties;
 The discussion about climate changes is strongly inserted in the
academy, but it is widely discussed outside it;
5. Lack of public policies oriented for the sugarcane sector
adaptation to support:
 The professionalization and organization of the sector to face the
multinational companies competition advancing in sugarcane breeding
and transgenic varieties;
 Innovations in soil improvement and crop management and so on;
6. RESULTS

25. IN CONCLUSION...
 There is a restructuration in course on the national system of
sugarcane science and technology with the strengthening of
old institutions, the emergence of new agents and change
of government posture;
 Need for structuring public agronomic research with focus
on adaptation to climate change in the industry;
 Dissemination of existing commercial varieties features
by drought tolerance, resistance to high temperature and rusticity;
 Development of new varieties with the same features;
 Making the former bank of germplasm from Coopersucar public
again – allowing the expansion of the crosses of sugarcane
varieties increasing the number of successes.

26. Thanks for your attention!
Email for questions and comments:
sadcarvalho@ige.unicamp.com

27. REFERENCES
 MARGULIS, S. e DUBEUX, C. B. S. (eds.) Economia da Mudança do Clima no Brasil: Custos e Oportunidades.
Coordenação geral Jacques Marcovitch.– São Paulo: IBEP Gráfica, 2010.82 p.
 GONÇALVES, R. R. V. et al Análise comparativa do clima atual e futuro para avaliar a expansão da cana-de-açúcar em
São Paulo. XVII Congresso Brasileiro de Agrometeorologia , Guarapari – ES.
 Pinto, H.S. & Assad, E.D. Global Warming and the New Geography of Agricultural Production in Brazil. British Embassy,
2008.
 Anuário Estatístico da Agroenergia 2010/ Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento. Secretaria de
Produção e Agroenergia – Brasília, : MAPA /SPAE, 2ª ed., 2011. 223 p.
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2011, 156-166 p.
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melhoramento genético da cana-de-açúcar do IAC. Dissertação de Mestrado. IG – Unicamp: Campinas, SP., 2001.
 HASEGAWA, M. Avaliação das capacitações dos spinoffs gerados por programas de P&D: o programa cana do IAC.
Tese de Doutorado. IG – Unicamp: Campinas, SP., 2005.
 RIDESA – Rede Interuniversitária para o Desenvolvimento do Setor Sucroenergético. Catálogo nacional de variedades
“RB” de cana-de-açúcar / Rede Interuniversitária para o Desenvolvimento do Setor Sucroalcooleiro. – Curitiba, 2010.
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