2. Outline!
• Who is SPUR?!
• The regional context!
• The housing problem: Growth in the price of housing not
matched by growth in incomes for most.!
• Why this is happening:!
– High demand.!
– Chronic underproduction.!
– Difficult process.!
• Some solutions!
3. The SPUR Urban Center in San Francisco
SPUR San Jose launched in 2009!
4. SPUR promotes good planning and good government
through research, education and advocacy
5. SPUR: what we do!
• original policy research !
• policy advocacy!
• monthly magazine: The Urbanist!
• exhibitions!
• forums, panels, and speakers!
6. SPUR
3-city strategy !
!
San Francisco
(founded in 1910)!
pop. 825,000 – 49 sq. mi.!
!
San Jose
(launched in 2009) ! !!
pop. 985,000 – 180 sq. mi.!
projected growth by 2040:!
470,000 jobs!
120,000 housing units!
!
Oakland (launching in…)!
pop. 400,000 – 78 sq. mi.!
8. How do we accommodate expected growth…!
Source:
MTC
and
ABAG,
Jobs
Housing
Connec9on
Strategy,
2012
9. …In such a way that reduces per capita GHG
emissions
!
Percent Reduction in Per Capita Emissions from 2005 to Target Year
2020 2035
Bay Area 7% 15%
Sacramento 7% 16%
San Diego 7% 13%
Los Angeles 8% 13%
Central Valley 5% 10%
9
Source:
ARB
Adopted
GHG
Targets,
September
2010
11. And encourages growth in places ideally with
transit -- 38% of jobs projected to go to the
three central cities!
Source:
MTC
and
ABAG,
Plan
Bay
Area,
2013
12. 41% of the 660,000 projected housing units
planned to go to the three central cities!
Source:
MTC
and
ABAG,
Plan
Bay
Area,
2013
15. With properties being bought quicker here than
anywhere else nationally!
Source: Jed Kolko, Trulia, 2014!
16. Paired with declining incomes!
Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, America’s Rental
Housing – Evolving Markets and Needs, 2013 !
17. And a decline in jobs in the middle.
Nearly 40% of jobs paying less than $18/hour!
508
309
505
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
$30
and
above
$18
to
$30
an
hour
Under
$18
an
hour
Bay
Area
Total
Job
Openings
2010-‐20
(Thousands)
Source:
Employment
Development
Department
18. In an environment with increasing renters!
Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, America’s Rental
Housing – Evolving Markets and Needs, 2013 !
19. And many communities with lower incomes!
Source: ABAG, Fair Housing and Equity Assessment, 2014 !
20. Some spend over half their income on rent!
Source: ABAG, Fair Housing and Equity Assessment, 2014 !
21. Workers across the income spectrum - even
higher earners - are feeling the crunch!
Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, America’s Rental
Housing – Evolving Markets and Needs, 2013 !
22. Some answers
Why is housing so expensive in
the Bay Area?
Part I: We don’t build enough.!
23. Since 1980 –the time of Prop 13, we’ve added few homes
(and have had slower job growth too)!
Source: SPUR Analysis, ABAG Bay Area Census!
24. Since 1969, new construction in San Francisco
has averaged only about 2,000 units per year!
2,045
1,215
2,380
1,578
1,516
790
1,978
1,002
2,581
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Units Authorized
for Construction
Units Completed
from New
Construction
Housing units authorized vs. housing units completed, San Francisco
1969-2012!
25. Supply matters – the most expensive markets
do not build much housing.!
Source: Jed Kolko, Trulia, “Where Buying a Home is Within Reach of the Middle Class.”
2014, Available at: http://www.trulia.com/trends/2014/05/middle-class-may-2014/!
26. Most recent housing is produced in San Jose,
followed by SF and Dublin!
Total
housing
produc1on
in
2013
Mountain
View
produced
37
units
in
2013
(Palo
Alto
–
89)
Source: CA Department of Finance!
3,578
2,377
1,124
27. Very little low-income housing has been built!
Source: ABAG, Fair Housing and Equity Assessment, 2014 !
28. And some affordable housing is at risk of being
converted to market rate!
Source: ABAG, Fair Housing and Equity Assessment, 2014 !
31. Why is housing so expensive in
the Bay Area?
Part II: There is high demand to
be here.!
32. The fastest-growing portion of the economy is the
highly specialized knowledge services sector!
Knowledge
services
=
professional
services,
so[ware,
IT,
finance,
informa9on.
Source: SPUR Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics!
33. Knowledge jobs want to be in the Bay Area.
The rise of technology reinforces the need for more face-to-face work
Even though we can work anywhere, the office isn’t going away…
and is now the place for collaborative work!
34. Why is housing so expensive in
the Bay Area?
Part III: We make it difficult to add
new housing.!
35.
36.
37. And every community has its own
reasons why it doesn’t want to
approve housing.!
Protect “neighborhood character”.!
Prevent increase in traffic.!
Stop negative impact on city services.!
Reduce threat of gentrification and displacement.!
Revise definition from urban to suburban. !
38. The planning process and requirements mean
it is expensive to build new housing!
Source: SPUR analysis, http://www.spur.org/publications/article/2014-02-11/how-make-san-francisco-affordable-again!
39. Caveat 1: What about shuttles?
Employee shuttles are not the problem –
they are the symptom.!
40. Employee shuttles
are about land use.
Most of the region’s
office jobs are just a
few miles from rail
transit. That is a “last
mile” gap or barrier
and is a key reason
why most people
drive.
!
41. Google
Apple
Facebook
San
Jose
HSR
Mtn
View
Palo
Alto
Redwood
City
Cisco
=
Rail
sta1on
Many
des1na1ons
re
not
on
transit
42. And opposition to shuttles in SF isn’t always
about “gentrification”!
43. Caveat 2: What about jobs?
Jobs are still very important to plan for.
And they are actually more important than
housing to put in the right place (i.e. near
transit).!
44. Jobs
near
transit
are
more
important
than
homes
in
geang
people
to
use
transit.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Residence
and
Workplace
within
½
mile
Workplace
Alone
within
½
mile
Residence
Alone
within
½
mile
Residence
and
Workplace
beyond
½
mile
Transit
commute
mode
share,
depending
on
proximity
to
regional
rail
(including
ferry)
Source:
San
Francisco
Bay
Area
MTC
2006
45. The percent who drive to work varies widely by job center –
places not on transit with low driving have shuttles!
46.
47. This is a place where we should be planning for
significant employment growth.!
49. Solutions!
Mountain
View
cannot
on
its
own
solve
regional
housing
affordability;
but
neither
can
the
region
become
affordable
without
Mountain
View
in
the
solu9on.
60. SAN JOSE’S CURRENT RAIL SYSTEM VTA LIGHT RAIL, CALTRAIN, ACE, CAPITOL CORRIDORWith current rail system concentrated at Diridon!
61. DOWNTOWN SAN JOSE WILL FURTHER BECOME THE SOUTH BAY’S TRANSIT HUB –
BUT TRANSIT REMAINS LESS COMPETITIVE WITH DRIVING FOR MANY TRIPSAnd future rail that will have to connect seamlessly to
these other nearby destinations – so subregions matter!
62. Work at a subregional level to promote housing!
63. Cities along a corridor could coordinate their
planning for overall housing – reduce
transportation spending to cities that do not
collaborate?!
65. Subsidy per unit of affordable housing: $250,000!
1,000 homes = $250,000,000!
!
10,000 homes = $2,500,000,000!
!
100,000 homes = $25,000,000,000!
Some affordable housing math: It’s expensive!
66. Local General Obligation bonds
Some General Fund support for affordable housing
Buy-down existing market rate units
Convert underused hotels
Use surplus local government land!
71. It is hard to get support for housing with blank walls
on the ground floor (for parking)
Establish a policy defining active use requirements
on ground floors along public streets.
!
73. Protect existing residents from being pushed out!
• Expand tenant protections such as longer
notification periods.!
• Provide tenants with legal help during eviction
process.!
• Help lower-income homeowners to secure more
value from property (such as becoming Airbnb host).!
74. Encourage and legalize secondary units – this
could increase total housing in SF by 1/3!
78. Is the clash between protecting community
character and affordability inevitable?!
79. Is improving transit access to lower-cost locations
an acceptable solution for affordability?!
80. The Bay Area
is a part of a
megaregion
that includes
Sacramento to
Merced.
!
Map shows the proposed
boundaries based on SPUR’s
analysis of the Northern
California megaregion!
Source:
GreenInfo
Network
mapping
for
SPUR
81. Summary!
• The region’s housing issues took many
years to create.!
• They will not be solved immediately.!
• While the challenges are regional – the
solutions start locally.!