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International Security Has Globalization tried to kill you today? By: Jason Krause, Alexandria White, and Jonathan D’Angelo
Is Globalization related to Security?U.S. post Cold War Interventions and Firefox 3Correlation? As stated in class, one sign of globalization is free access to information, mainly via the Internet. Firefox is a popular free open source Internet Browser alternative to Microsoft Internet Explorer. Firefox is installed on all ECU Campus PCs Firefox 3 was released for download June 17th 2008
Downloads of Firefox 3(Red=highest volume, Gray/Blue=lowest volume)
Map of U.S. Forces Deployed 1990-2003  (Exercises and Humanitarian Operations excluded) Inside the dotted line (known as the Non-integrating Gap) is 1/3rd of World Population and 95% of the Terrorism, Genocide, and Child Soldiers
U.S. Forces Deployments and Firefox 3 Downloads maps combined…Does Globalization = Stability? Map from Eaves.ca, 3 days older than 1st download map, hence the difference in volume.
Is Globalization good or bad for International Security? Short Term: Bad, why? ,[object Object]
Struggle for resources
Corruption
Cultural issues (Religion)
Increased struggle between Have vs Have-Not (Somali Pirates attacking cargo ships, more on this later…)
TerrorismLong Term: Good, why? ,[object Object]
Growth of a Middle-Class
Increased demand for good/services
Increased demand for government accountability
Democracy
Massive incentive not to screw it up (China),[object Object]
Can history repeat? Baghdad, Iraq 2009 ? Kabul, Afghanistan 2009 ?
Elephants in the Room Russia	 China U.S. Air Force F/A-22 Raptor escorting a Russian Air Force Tu-95 Bomber near Alaska in the Fall of 2007 Chinese People’s Liberation Army
Conflict that Could Derail Globalization? US v. Russia over Georgia? US v. China over Taiwan? Motives: Economic& militarily driven  Projection of Power Test Western Societies
Emerging Trends of Military Significance The Global Village Phenomena Cultural Change With Security Implications Economic Determinism Political Deconfliction Societal Concerns Regional Renegades Ethno-Linguistic Pan-Nationalism Critical Uncertainties
Conditions which Threaten U.S. National Interests Adverse Ideology to democracy  Democratic Peace Theory Denial of access to resources and markets  What are you hiding? Regional instability  Susceptibility to conflict Military threats/weapons proliferation  Non-compliant Competitors EX: China? Renegade Adversaries EX: Iran, N. Korea
China: Rising World Hegemonic Power? China-US Relations Chinese military  growing defense spending. force projection, logistics, training, command and control Total People’s Liberation Army Members 2.3 million (2003) Weapons Development Purchasing modern military equipment SA-10 systems, SU-27 Fighters and Kilo submarines from Russia Nuclear Proliferation Selling  nuclear technology and Information to Renegade advisories	 Could China Assume the Role & Responsibility as Global Hegemony?
New Era of Threat:Technological/Electronic Intelligence Nuclearization Information and Cybernetic Warfare Electromagnetic warfare  Applied Automation  Precision Munitions Medium and long range missiles  Weaponized chemical capability  Advanced barrier technologies  Electrochemical weapons Anti-missile technologies and Denial (C3D2)  Anti-aircraft technologies  Hyperspectral Sensors  Techno-terrorism  Brilliant sensors and all-source fusion  Technology-aided espionage

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International Security 3

  • 1. International Security Has Globalization tried to kill you today? By: Jason Krause, Alexandria White, and Jonathan D’Angelo
  • 2. Is Globalization related to Security?U.S. post Cold War Interventions and Firefox 3Correlation? As stated in class, one sign of globalization is free access to information, mainly via the Internet. Firefox is a popular free open source Internet Browser alternative to Microsoft Internet Explorer. Firefox is installed on all ECU Campus PCs Firefox 3 was released for download June 17th 2008
  • 3. Downloads of Firefox 3(Red=highest volume, Gray/Blue=lowest volume)
  • 4. Map of U.S. Forces Deployed 1990-2003 (Exercises and Humanitarian Operations excluded) Inside the dotted line (known as the Non-integrating Gap) is 1/3rd of World Population and 95% of the Terrorism, Genocide, and Child Soldiers
  • 5. U.S. Forces Deployments and Firefox 3 Downloads maps combined…Does Globalization = Stability? Map from Eaves.ca, 3 days older than 1st download map, hence the difference in volume.
  • 6.
  • 10. Increased struggle between Have vs Have-Not (Somali Pirates attacking cargo ships, more on this later…)
  • 11.
  • 12. Growth of a Middle-Class
  • 13. Increased demand for good/services
  • 14. Increased demand for government accountability
  • 16.
  • 17. Can history repeat? Baghdad, Iraq 2009 ? Kabul, Afghanistan 2009 ?
  • 18. Elephants in the Room Russia China U.S. Air Force F/A-22 Raptor escorting a Russian Air Force Tu-95 Bomber near Alaska in the Fall of 2007 Chinese People’s Liberation Army
  • 19. Conflict that Could Derail Globalization? US v. Russia over Georgia? US v. China over Taiwan? Motives: Economic& militarily driven Projection of Power Test Western Societies
  • 20. Emerging Trends of Military Significance The Global Village Phenomena Cultural Change With Security Implications Economic Determinism Political Deconfliction Societal Concerns Regional Renegades Ethno-Linguistic Pan-Nationalism Critical Uncertainties
  • 21. Conditions which Threaten U.S. National Interests Adverse Ideology to democracy Democratic Peace Theory Denial of access to resources and markets What are you hiding? Regional instability Susceptibility to conflict Military threats/weapons proliferation Non-compliant Competitors EX: China? Renegade Adversaries EX: Iran, N. Korea
  • 22. China: Rising World Hegemonic Power? China-US Relations Chinese military growing defense spending. force projection, logistics, training, command and control Total People’s Liberation Army Members 2.3 million (2003) Weapons Development Purchasing modern military equipment SA-10 systems, SU-27 Fighters and Kilo submarines from Russia Nuclear Proliferation Selling nuclear technology and Information to Renegade advisories Could China Assume the Role & Responsibility as Global Hegemony?
  • 23. New Era of Threat:Technological/Electronic Intelligence Nuclearization Information and Cybernetic Warfare Electromagnetic warfare Applied Automation Precision Munitions Medium and long range missiles Weaponized chemical capability Advanced barrier technologies Electrochemical weapons Anti-missile technologies and Denial (C3D2) Anti-aircraft technologies Hyperspectral Sensors Techno-terrorism Brilliant sensors and all-source fusion Technology-aided espionage
  • 24. Effects of Terrorism on a Global Economy The direct effects of the attack on September 11 the US: $34 billion in uninsured damage from the World Trade Centers, $576 million in damage to the Pentagon $7 was billion paid out in victim compensation 279,000 jobs were lost as a result of a slowing economy due to 9/11 US has spent $53 billion in homeland security and counterterrorism efforts within our borders World economy lost $300 billion potential growth in 2001 and 2002 due to The global economy went from a 4.1% growth rate in 2000 to a 1.4% growth rate in 2001 The US national average for insurance rates increased 5%, and about 30% in Europe International shipping and travel costs increased Tourism industry heavily impacted
  • 25. Pakistan and it’s Nuclear Weapons Pakistan's motive for a nuclear weapons program is to counter the threat posed by its rival India Currently India has superior conventional forces and nuclear weapons Pakistan does not abide by a no-first-use doctrine President Musharraf said that Pakistan does not want a conflict with India, but… Pakistan refuses to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty Consequently, not all of Pakistan's nuclear facilities are under IAEA regulation or subject to inspection It is estimated that Pakistan has built 24-55 uranium based nuclear weapons Pakistan has also produced a small but unknown quantity of weapons grade plutonium
  • 26. History of Pakistan’s Nuclear Program Pakistan's nuclear weapons program was established in 1972 by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Bhutto founded the program while he was Minister for Fuel, Power and Natural Resources, he later became President and Prime Minister of Pakistan After the loss of East Pakistan in 1971 war with India, Bhutto initiated the program with a meeting of physicists and engineers at Multan in January 1972 The 1975 arrival of Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan considerably advanced Pakistans development of the nuclear bomb By the early 1990s, Kahuta had an estimated 3,000 centrifuges in operation
  • 27. Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan Known as the “father of the Islamic bomb” Dr. Khan is a German-trained metallurgist Worked at the classified URENCO uranium enrichment plant in the Netherlands Dr. Khan also reportedly brought with him stolen uranium enrichment technologies from Europe. He and was put in charge of building, equipping and operating Pakistan's Kahuta facility Under Khan's direction, Pakistan had an extensive clandestine network In 1986 Pakistan was thought to have produced enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon According to Pakistan the nation acquired the ability to carry out a nuclear explosion in 1987 Currently Dr. Khan is considered a proliferation risk for selling nuclear secrets to North Korea, Libya and Iran
  • 28. What if? What if terrorists acquired a Nuclear weapon would see the same effects on the global economy we saw on 9/11?
  • 29. A little bit of good news Pakistan has relatively “small” nuclear weapons Pakistan claims to have tested a 25-36 kiloton bomb in 1998, outside sources say it was closer to 9-12 kilotons 1 kiloton equals 1000 tons of TNT 1 Mega ton equals 1,000,000 tons Nagasaki was 20 kilotons Largest bombs are 50 megatons Only tested uranium based bombs, never detonated a larger plutonium bomb Outside sources claim Pakistan's weapons are relatively secure Takes after the US model of layered security
  • 30. Possible bright spot for cooperation?Somali Privacy and the global response Somali Pirates are responsible for numerous attacks on private and commercial ships off the coast of Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden. In response to this and other regional maritime security concerns the U.S. Navy’s 6th Fleet formed Combined Task Force 151. CTF 151 is an international naval task force which is responsible for maritime security from the horn of Africa and Gulf of Aden. Participating countries include Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Pakistan, Portugal, Spain, Singapore, Turkey, the UK, the US. The current Commander of CTF 151 is Turkish Navy Rear Admiral Caner Bener Russia and China (major shift in PLA’s focus) also have ships in the area however are operating independently. Turkish Special Forces part of CTF151
  • 31. Thomas P.M. Barnett video… Ph.D Harvard in Political Science Center for Naval Analysis Contributed to the U.S. Navy’s major post-Cold War doctrine white paper “…From the Sea” Professor at the Naval War College New Rule Sets Project (Wall Street CEOs and Military Flag Officers looking into Y2K’s possible ripple effects on IPE, findings were almost identical 9/11’s ripple effects a few years later). Assistant for Strategic Futures, Office of Force Transformation, Dept of Defense (hired to come up with an “unofficial” Grand Strategy post-9/11). Author of three books: The Pentagon’s New Map: War and Peace in the 21st Century Blueprint for Action: A Future Worth Creating Great Powers: America & The World After Bush Barnett’s 2008 article in Esquire led the Commander of U.S. Central Command, Admiral Fallon to resign over comments made about Bush’s Iran policy. Opinion of his research ranges between absolutely brilliant to absolutely insane, you decide…
  • 32. Thomas P.M. Barnett’s A-Z rule set for Politically Bankrupt States2005 TED TALK Clip (Barnett’s full presentation at the National Defense University is 3 hours long and available on C-SPAN or Youtube) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbmseFaZb9Q