Our latest report is out on the spending, saving and borrowing intentions of Irish consumers. Maybe there's a recovery under way...? More here: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

1. Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
February 2014
© Amárach Research
Economic Recovery Index
1

2. A Damp Start
Did the rain put a dampener on the recovery?
Our Economic Recovery Index eased back
in February, after six months of continuous
increases – albeit to 31.7, still the second
highest level on record.
Nevertheless, it’s interesting to see that
sentiment about the economy didn’t change
much since last month, but sentiment about
personal ‘financial resilience’ did fall back –
perhaps the consequence of a lot of 2013 bills
coming due in January?
No sentiment series continues in one direction
for ever, so some easing is to be expected –
as to whether it has any wider implications for
the robustness of the recovery, next month’s
ERI should tell a story…
Economic Recovery Index
2

3. The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out nearly five years ago to assess
the psychological impact of the recession and
to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
February 2014.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 10th-15th February 2014 inclusive.
The full data series is on our website – if you
want us to conduct additional analyses (by
brands etc) then feel free to get in touch.
Economic Recovery Index
3

4. The Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
Our Index has eased back: to 31.7 in February 2014, still the second highest on record:
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
Apr '09
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan '12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
5
Source: Amárach Research, February 2014
Economic Recovery Index
4

5. A Matter of Measurement
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
The percentage thinking ‘things are getting worse’ is less than a third the level three years ago:
Jan ’14: 0%
Jan ’14: 9%
Jan ’14: 20%
Jan ’14: 34%
Feb ’14: 21%
Jan ’14: 36%
Economic Recovery Index
Feb ’14: 0%
Feb ’14: 7%
Feb ’14: 33%
Feb ’14: 39%
5

6. ERI Summary Tables I
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
The economic
The economic
The economic
The economic The economic
situation is
situation is bad
situation is Economic
situation in situation is bad
getting better
but showing a
good and
Recovery
Ireland is
but has
and showing
few signs of
almost fully
Index
getting worse
stabilized
clear signs of
improvement
recovered
improvement
39
34
25
2
0
22.7
58
27
14
1
0
18.0
55
25
18
2
0
16.9
42
32
22
4
0
21.8
20
36
34
9
0
33.3
21
39
33
7
0
31.7
Economic Recovery Index
6

7. ERI Summary Tables II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Economic Recovery Index
42
24
26
27
41
38
I feel I am
financially I am optimistic
comfortable in spite of the
enough to
current
make it
economic
through the
situation
recession
47
37
41
36
44
41
56
44
44
43
53
52
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
53
45
49
42
46
47
7

8. ERI Summary Tables III
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
I am more
I am saving a
My main
I would be
relaxed about
lot more than financial priority
happy to
spending
before
is to pay off my borrow money
money than I
because of the debts as quickly from a bank if I
was a few
recession
as possible
need to
months ago
18
26
62
29
14
27
61
24
17
29
57
26
16
26
54
24
23
25
57
24
22
25
58
24
Economic Recovery Index
8

9. Financial Resilience
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):
“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
February 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44
45-54
55+
Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample
1001
495
507
169
223
187
156
265
279
478
524
Strongly Agree
12%
13%
11%
10%
13%
10%
9%
15%
12%
18%
7%
Slightly Agree
29%
30%
28%
33%
24%
27%
28%
32%
30%
33%
25%
Neither/Nor
15%
16%
14%
11%
20%
18%
10%
14%
15%
15%
14%
Slightly Disagree
22%
21%
22%
24%
22%
22%
21%
19%
22%
19%
24%
Strongly Disagree
20%
18%
23%
17%
18%
20%
30%
18%
18%
14%
26%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, February 2014
9

10. Still Saving
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):
“I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession”
February 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44
Weighted Sample
45-54
55+
Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1001
495
507
169
223
187
156
265
279
478
524
Strongly Agree
9%
9%
8%
16%
10%
8%
7%
3%
8%
9%
8%
Slightly Agree
17%
18%
15%
24%
21%
15%
14%
11%
16%
18%
15%
Neither/Nor
21%
22%
20%
19%
20%
19%
16%
27%
20%
25%
17%
Slightly Disagree
21%
19%
22%
22%
21%
20%
22%
20%
22%
21%
21%
Strongly Disagree
31%
29%
33%
15%
27%
37%
39%
37%
31%
25%
38%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, February 2014
10

11. The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2014
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Enjoyment
Happiness
Stress
Worry
0%
Apr '09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
10%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, February 2014
11

12. The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2014
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
Anxiety
Sadness
Pain
Anger
Feb
Dec
Oct
Aug
June
Apr
Feb
Dec
Oct
Aug
June
Apr
Feb
Dec
Oct
Aug
June
Apr
Feb
Dec
Oct
Aug
June
Apr
Feb
Dec
Oct
Aug
Jun
0%
Apr '09
5%
Source: Amárach Research, February 2014
Economic Recovery Index
12

13. Changing Moods
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: February 2014
February 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44
45-54
55+
Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample
1001
495
507
169
223
187
156
265
279
478
524
Enjoyment
50%
48%
52%
51%
44%
43%
51%
60%
50%
55%
46%
Happiness
49%
45%
53%
60%
47%
45%
44%
50%
46%
49%
48%
Stress
44%
42%
45%
53%
49%
50%
41%
30%
44%
44%
44%
Worry
37%
35%
39%
47%
34%
37%
35%
33%
38%
36%
38%
Anxiety
32%
29%
34%
42%
30%
29%
29%
30%
31%
34%
30%
Boredom
27%
26%
27%
42%
30%
23%
25%
17%
25%
24%
29%
Physical Pain
21%
20%
23%
20%
15%
18%
26%
28%
22%
19%
24%
Sadness
18%
16%
21%
24%
19%
19%
16%
14%
19%
17%
19%
Anger
16%
15%
17%
19%
17%
18%
17%
11%
18%
14%
17%
Fear
10%
10%
11%
14%
8%
11%
8%
9%
14%
9%
11%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, February 2014
13

14. Drivers & Drinking
we ask the right questions
so you get the right answers
Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/

15. Trends Report
Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want maximize
the prize in 2014:
e. info@amarach.com
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
For more on the ERI see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm