Our monthly look at Irish consumer spending, savings and borrowing intentions and attitudes.

1. 1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
May 2014
© Amárach Research

2. 2Economic Recovery Index
Sell in May
Despite all the political noise in the
background, the Irish consumer has
remained quite stable in his and her
outlook in our May survey.
We have retained some of the features
from last month’s special anniversary issue
due to reader feedback – feel free to make
any other suggestions for improvement
and expansion of the Economic Recovery
Index.
The old investment adage is that you
should ‘sell in May and go away’ – but we
would suggest a different adage for sales
and marketing folk: ‘the mood in May is
here to stay’.

3. 3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out five years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
May 2014.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 18th-24th May 2014 inclusive.
The full data series is on our website –
details at the end of this report.

4. Economic Recovery Index

5. 5Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
Our Index continued to ease back in May 2014, to start of the year levels:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, May 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Apr'09
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
the ERI remains well above historic average levels as we approach mid-2014

6. 6Economic Recovery Index
A Matter of Measurement
Apr ’14: 23% May ’14: 24%
Apr ’14: 32% May ’14: 32%
Apr ’14: 35% May ’14: 36%
Apr ’14: 9% May ’14: 8%
Apr ’14: 1% May ’14: 0%
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
The percentage thinking ‘things are getting worse’ is the lowest since we began:

7. 7Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
May-09 57 24 18 1 0 16.0
May-10 36 35 27 2 0 23.8
May-11 40 33 24 2 1 22.1
May-12 48 26 24 2 0 20.2
May-13 44 29 24 2 1 21.3
Apr-14 23 32 35 9 1 33.2
May-14 24 32 36 8 0 32.4
the positive outlook evident from late 2013 has continued into 2014 without abating

8. 8Economic Recovery Index
Uneven Recovery
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
(by sex, age, class, Dublin)
Source: Amárach Research, May 2014
May 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1001 499 502 136 243 209 171 242 297 489 512
The economic situation
in Ireland is getting
worse
24% 20% 26% 17% 18% 26% 27% 25% 22% 18% 27%
The economic situation
is bad but has stabilized
32% 33% 29% 33% 39% 32% 28% 24% 28% 34% 28%
The economic situation
is bad but showing a
few signs of
improvement
36% 34% 35% 32% 31% 33% 36% 39% 36% 35% 34%
The economic situation
is getting better and
showing clear signs of
improvement
8% 11% 4% 8% 8% 6% 6% 10% 10% 10% 6%
The economic situation
is good and almost fully
recovered from the
recession
0% * 1% 1% 1% * 0 0 * * *
ERI Score 32.4 35.0 29.8 32.4 33.4 30.8 30.2 34.4 34.4 35.0 29.9

9. Consumer Impact

10. 10Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am optimistic
in spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
May-09 41 48 59 62
May-10 40 44 53 51
May-11 28 40 53 50
May-12 25 38 47 45
May-13 25 39 45 46
Apr-14 35 40 49 43
May-14 38 39 49 45
very gradually, we can see a more positive, though cautious outlook returning

11. 11Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of the
recession
My main
financial priority
is to pay off my
debts as quickly
as possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
May-09 15
May-10 19 26 61 28
May-11 17 26 61 26
May-12 18 27 56 27
May-13 18 24 56 24
Apr-14 24 24 56 26
May-14 23 23 59 25
if anything, consumers are using the low interest rate environment to pay off more debts

12. 12Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table III
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I always buy
the lowest
price products
or services
I am always on
the lookout for
opportunities to
switch to
cheaper
suppliers
I have more
choice than
before when it
comes to
products and
services
I always buy
Irish when I
can
Apr-13 57 71 52 52
May-13 58 69 54 54
Jun-13 55 70 55 51
Jul-13 56 70 52 53
Aug-13 57 70 53 53
Sep-13 59 72 53 54
Oct-13 58 69 52 51
Nov-13 56 69 55 51
Dec-13 54 68 54 53
Jan-14 59 74 56 54
Feb-14 56 70 57 52
Mar-14 57 68 56 48
Apr-14 56 69 54 50
May-14 60 72 55 51

13. 13Economic Recovery Index
Financially Resilient
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):
“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, May 2014
May 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1001 499 502 136 243 209 171 242 297 489 512
Strongly Agree 10% 12% 7% 7% 12% 11% 5% 12% 13% 15% 5%
Slightly Agree 29% 32% 27% 35% 33% 22% 23% 32% 32% 32% 26%
Neither/Nor 13% 16% 10% 17% 12% 14% 11% 14% 14% 14% 13%
Slightly Disagree 22% 19% 24% 21% 22% 23% 26% 17% 17% 21% 22%
Strongly Disagree 23% 18% 28% 15% 19% 27% 32% 21% 22% 16% 29%

14. 14Economic Recovery Index
Habitual Savers
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):
“I am saving a lot more because of the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, May 2014
May 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1001 499 502 136 243 209 171 242 297 489 512
Strongly Agree 10% 11% 9% 20% 14% 8% 7% 5% 13% 13% 7%
Slightly Agree 13% 14% 13% 20% 15% 14% 11% 9% 16% 14% 13%
Neither/Nor 19% 21% 17% 27% 18% 17% 12% 22% 24% 20% 18%
Slightly Disagree 21% 21% 21% 16% 24% 21% 23% 20% 20% 22% 21%
Strongly Disagree 35% 31% 39% 13% 27% 38% 47% 43% 25% 30% 39%

15. 15Economic Recovery Index
Faulting Debt
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):
“My main financial priority is to pay of my debts as soon as possible”
Source: Amárach Research, May 2014
May 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1001 499 502 136 243 209 171 242 297 489 512
Strongly Agree 34% 31% 37% 24% 26% 39% 38% 40% 31% 35% 33%
Slightly Agree 25% 26% 24% 22% 30% 25% 27% 21% 26% 26% 24%
Neither/Nor 17% 19% 14% 26% 15% 16% 13% 17% 20% 16% 17%
Slightly Disagree 7% 8% 6% 4% 10% 9% 6% 5% 7% 7% 7%
Strongly Disagree 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 5% 6% 7% 5% 5% 7%

16. Mood of the Nation

17. 17Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to May 2014
Source: Amárach Research, May 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

18. 18Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to May 2014
Source: Amárach Research, May 2014
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

19. 19Economic Recovery Index
Changing Moods
Source: Amárach Research, May 2014
May 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1001 499 502 136 243 209 171 242 297 489 512
Enjoyment 54% 54% 53% 55% 49% 52% 51% 60% 58% 61% 46%
Happiness 52% 51% 54% 59% 53% 53% 47% 51% 56% 58% 47%
Stress 44% 42% 45% 43% 51% 53% 46% 27% 44% 42% 46%
Worry 39% 36% 43% 39% 42% 47% 39% 31% 40% 35% 43%
Anxiety 31% 29% 32% 35% 38% 36% 26% 19% 33% 30% 31%
Boredom 27% 28% 26% 46% 33% 22% 26% 14% 30% 27% 27%
Physical Pain 26% 25% 28% 24% 21% 24% 26% 34% 26% 20% 32%
Sadness 19% 16% 22% 19% 24% 20% 16% 16% 19% 17% 21%
Anger 18% 19% 18% 22% 24% 21% 17% 10% 20% 16% 21%
Fear 11% 11% 11% 14% 14% 13% 9% 5% 13% 8% 13%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: May 2014

20. Amárach Outlook

21. 21Economic Recovery Index
Leveraging Recovery
There is clear evidence from our ERI survey
that consumer resilience is evolving into a
more positive outlook.
This means that the rest of the year should
see clearer evidence of a willingness for
consumers to open their purses & wallets to
spend – even as they save & pay off debts.
We hope this edition of the Economic
Recovery Index has given you some food for
thought about the opportunities that lie ahead
over the remainder of 2014.
For more on the ERI see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

22. we ask better questions
so you get better answers
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24. Trends Report
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