Recovery gathering momentum? Our latest report on the spending, saving and borrowing intentions of Irish consumers. More here: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

1. Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
November 2013
(including analysis by main paper; TV provider; mobile network)
© Amárach Research
Economic Recovery Index
1

2. Momentum
Success in business and marketing is all about
momentum, and right now our Economic
Recovery Index is gathering momentum, reaching
in November its highest level for the second
month in a row.
In recent months we have seen a gradual
improvement in general sentiment about the
economy – but in November we have seen a
gradual improvement in sentiment about the
consumer, including spending intentions.
It’s still too early to call, but a gradual alignment
of positive macro sentiment with positive micro
behaviour could finally deliver a pick up in
consumer and retail spending.
Fingers crossed for a positive turn going into
2014.
Economic Recovery Index
2

3. The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out four years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
November 2013.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 11th-18th November 2013 inclusive.
The full data series is on our website – if you
want us to conduct additional analyses (by
brands etc) then feel free to get in touch.
Economic Recovery Index
3

4. The Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
Our Index rose further to 29.6 in November 2013, breaking all records since we began
tracking the mood of the nation in April 2009:
35
30
25
20
15
10
Oct
Nov
Sept
July
Aug
June
Apr
May
Mar
Feb
Dec
Jan'13
Oct
Nov
Sept
July
Aug
June
Apr
May
Mar
Feb
Jan '12
Dec
Oct
Nov
Sept
July
Aug
June
Apr
May
Mar
Feb
Dec
Jan'11
Oct
Nov
Sept
July
Aug
June
Apr
May
Mar
Feb
Dec
Jan'10
Oct
Nov
Aug
Sept
Jun
July
0
Apr '09
5
Source: Amárach Research, November 2013
Economic Recovery Index
4

5. A Matter of Measurement
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
The percentage thinking ‘things are getting worse’ is less than a third the level three years ago:
Oct ’13: 0%
Oct ’13: 4%
Oct ’13: 32%
Oct ’13: 32%
Nov ’13: 26%
Oct ’13: 32%
Economic Recovery Index
Nov ’13: 0%
Nov ’13: 5%
Nov ’13: 32%
Nov ’13: 36%
5

6. ERI Summary Tables I
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
Nov-09
Nov-10
Nov-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Nov-13
The economic
The economic
The economic
The economic The economic
situation is
situation is bad
situation is Economic
situation in situation is bad
getting better
but showing a
good and
Recovery
Ireland is
but has
and showing
few signs of
almost fully
Index
getting worse
stabilized
clear signs of
improvement
recovered
improvement
51
27
21
1
0
17.8
80
12
6
1
1
7.3
57
24
17
2
0
16.3
47
30
20
3
0
19.6
32
32
32
4
0
27.4
26
36
32
5
0
29.6
Economic Recovery Index
6

7. ERI Summary Tables II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
Nov-09
Nov-10
Nov-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Nov-13
Economic Recovery Index
41
18
23
27
30
36
I feel I am
financially I am optimistic
comfortable in spite of the
enough to
current
make it
economic
through the
situation
recession
45
32
34
34
36
42
51
33
42
44
44
49
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
52
45
45
43
43
44
7

8. ERI Summary Tables III
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Nov-09
Nov-10
Nov-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Nov-13
I am more
I am saving a
My main
I would be
relaxed about
lot more than financial priority
happy to
spending
before
is to pay off my borrow money
money than I
because of the debts as quickly from a bank if I
was a few
recession
as possible
need to
months ago
16
27
62
28
11
24
50
20
15
26
55
23
16
25
53
22
18
24
57
24
22
24
54
26
Economic Recovery Index
8

9. Financial Resilience I
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):
“I feel I am financially strong enough to make it through the recession”
November 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44
Weighted Sample
45-54
55+
Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1000
494
506
169
223
187
156
265
279
477
523
Strongly Agree
9%
8%
10%
11%
8%
6%
9%
11%
14%
13%
6%
Slightly Agree
33%
37%
29%
31%
39%
30%
23%
36%
34%
40%
26%
Neither/Nor
14%
18%
10%
15%
15%
16%
13%
12%
14%
16%
12%
Slightly Disagree
21%
18%
24%
25%
19%
24%
24%
16%
18%
17%
25%
Strongly Disagree
20%
18%
23%
14%
17%
22%
28%
21%
18%
13%
27%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, November 2013
9

10. Financial Resilience II
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by newspaper/tv/mobile network):
“I feel I am financially strong enough to make it through the recession”
Irish Irish
Irish
November 2013 TOTAL Times Indepe Daily
ndent Mail
Sky
UPC
O2
Weighted Sample
Vodafone Meteor
3
EMobile
1000
170
232
83
426
234
237
345
194
79
46
Strongly Agree
9%
13%
8%
9%
8%
10%
8%
10%
9%
12%
4%
Slightly Agree
33%
40%
39%
27%
31%
38%
33%
30%
32%
44%
31%
Neither/Nor
14%
15%
15%
19%
16%
12%
15%
13%
13%
8%
29%
Slightly Disagree
21%
15%
20%
21%
19%
21%
21%
25%
20%
17%
15%
Strongly Disagree
20%
15%
17%
20%
24%
16%
20%
21%
21%
18%
16%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, November 2013
10

11. Spendthrift I
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am more relaxed about spending money than a few months ago”
November 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44
Weighted Sample
45-54
55+
Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1000
494
506
169
223
187
156
265
279
477
523
Strongly Agree
6%
6%
5%
9%
9%
3%
4%
3%
7%
6%
6%
Slightly Agree
16%
18%
14%
18%
18%
14%
14%
15%
18%
19%
12%
Neither/Nor
19%
22%
16%
17%
16%
20%
14%
24%
22%
23%
15%
Slightly Disagree
26%
24%
27%
28%
28%
28%
22%
22%
23%
27%
25%
Strongly Disagree
33%
28%
38%
25%
27%
34%
46%
36%
29%
24%
41%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, November 2013
11

12. Spendthrift II
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by newspaper/tv/mobile network):
“I am more relaxed about spending money than a few months ago”
Irish Irish
Irish
November 2013 TOTAL Times Indepe Daily
ndent Mail
Sky
UPC
O2
Weighted Sample
Vodafone Meteor
3
EMobile
1000
170
232
83
426
234
237
345
194
79
46
Strongly Agree
9%
7%
9%
5%
7%
6%
6%
6%
9%
4%
9%
Slightly Agree
20%
17%
19%
15%
18%
18%
12%
14%
24%
18%
20%
Neither/Nor
22%
19%
15%
17%
19%
19%
18%
17%
16%
22%
22%
Slightly Disagree
26%
23%
31%
26%
27%
25%
24%
28%
31%
24%
26%
Strongly Disagree
24%
33%
25%
35%
28%
32%
38%
32%
20%
32%
24%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, November 2013
12

13. The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2013
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Enjoyment
Happiness
Stress
Worry
0%
Apr '09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
10%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, November 2013
13

14. The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2013
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
Anxiety
Sadness
Pain
Anger
0%
Apr '09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
5%
Source: Amárach Research, November 2013
Economic Recovery Index
14

15. Emotions Summary Table
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes:
%
Enjoyment
Happiness
Nov-09
50
51
50
42
33
20
21
18
Nov-10
45
48
51
46
38
24
21
25
Nov-11
53
50
48
45
34
21
24
18
Nov-12
53
49
46
43
31
21
25
18
Oct-13
54
50
47
43
32
23
26
16
Nov-13
53
49
45
40
34
22
25
18
Economic Recovery Index
Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain
Anger
15

16. Changing Moods I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: November 2013
November 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44
45-54
55+
Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample
1000
494
506
169
223
187
156
265
279
477
523
Enjoyment
53%
52%
54%
50%
53%
48%
48%
63%
53%
59%
48%
Happiness
49%
50%
48%
59%
55%
45%
44%
44%
50%
56%
44%
Stress
45%
43%
48%
56%
48%
54%
47%
29%
47%
45%
45%
Worry
40%
38%
41%
45%
42%
43%
38%
33%
41%
40%
39%
Anxiety
34%
30%
37%
36%
34%
35%
34%
29%
33%
33%
34%
Boredom
27%
28%
26%
52%
31%
22%
19%
17%
29%
26%
28%
Physical Pain
25%
22%
29%
28%
21%
20%
27%
31%
29%
24%
26%
Sadness
22%
19%
26%
30%
24%
19%
18%
21%
20%
23%
22%
Anger
18%
19%
17%
26%
18%
23%
19%
8%
20%
18%
18%
Fear
14%
14%
13%
14%
17%
15%
16%
8%
15%
13%
14%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, November 2013
16

17. Changing Moods II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: November 2013 (by newspaper/tv service/mobile network)
Irish Irish
Irish
November 2013 TOTAL Times Indepe Daily
ndent Mail
Sky
UPC
O2 Vodafone Meteor
3
EMobile
Weighted Sample
1000
170
232
83
426
234
237
345
194
79
46
Enjoyment
53%
61%
57%
59%
53%
55%
53%
52%
54%
58%
42%
Happiness
49%
52%
47%
58%
47%
54%
51%
46%
54%
58%
39%
Stress
45%
43%
40%
54%
48%
43%
47%
43%
47%
52%
44%
Worry
40%
44%
41%
49%
40%
40%
37%
42%
42%
38%
35%
Anxiety
34%
35%
32%
40%
35%
34%
38%
32%
31%
36%
30%
Boredom
27%
24%
22%
26%
25%
28%
25%
25%
32%
39%
17%
Physical Pain
25%
26%
21%
25%
24%
28%
25%
25%
26%
22%
27%
Sadness
22%
25%
20%
31%
21%
22%
22%
20%
23%
22%
35%
Anger
18%
15%
14%
26%
19%
16%
19%
15%
19%
16%
28%
Fear
14%
18%
12%
20%
12%
14%
14%
13%
12%
13%
16%
Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, November 2013
17

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19. Trends Report
Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your hack
your way to growth in 2014:
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For more on the ERI see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm