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The Smart Future
                   An Amárach Briefing
                                May 2011

                             © Amárach Research
The Smart Future                              1
The Smart Future
World’s First Smart Phone




  http://www.retrocom.com/bellsouth_ibm_simon.htm
The Smart Future




1. About Amárach
   insight + foresight

2. The Social Explosion
   all together now

3. The Smart Future
   next wave capitalism
The Smart Future




1. About Amárach
   insight + foresight
The Smart Future



We are an independent market research
agency, providing a full range of research
services to our Irish and international
clients. We have worked with two thirds of
Ireland‟s top 200 companies. Every year
we survey over 100,000 people at home
and abroad, as well as running hundreds
of focus groups.

Our experienced team of directors and
executives manage online, face-to-face
and cati surveys; as well as qualitative
research including focus groups, in-depths
and ethnographic studies. We also offer a
unique field-only service to universities and
international agencies.

Amárach Research is proud to be:
The Smart Future




2. The Social Explosion
   all together now
Tipping Points

Year in which technology used by majority of Irish adults for first time:




                                   Home PC Broadband Smartphone
       landline                      2005     2009     2012*
      1980s 1990s          2000s                          2010s



                                            Internet           Facebook
                                              2007               2011*
                           Mobile
                           2000                               * Amárach forecast
The Smart Future                                                                   7
Smartphone Inflection




The Smart Future        8
Approaching the Tipping Point




The Smart Future                9
Smart Ireland

        Online survey of 844 Irish mobile phone users in May
        2011, including 311 smartphone users
        (= 37% of all with mobile phone)

        Q. “Is your mobile phone a „smart phone‟, i.e.: one you can use to surf the
        internet, download apps etc? (E.g.: Apple iPhone, BlackBerry, Nokia N &
        E series, HTC, Samsung and certain other types of touch phones etc)”




The Smart Future                                                                      10
Mind The Gap

                      Smartphone Penetration in Ireland


                                           47%
                   55%
        63%                       63%               66%      67%
                           71%                                       73%




                                           53%
                   45%
        37%                       37%               34%      33%
                           29%                                       27%


         All       Male   Female 15-24s   25-34s   35-44s   45-54s    55+
                            smartphone    standard phone


                                             Source: Amárach Research, May 2011
The Smart Future                                                                  11
Smartphone Handsets Market Share

  Smartphone users have had a mobile phone for over 12 years (any kind),
  slightly longer than average user (11 years).
  The average smartphone user has had a smartphone for 12 months
  (Blackberry users for 22 months!)




                                                                                    * all others
 NB: caution using data as small sample for HTC & Blackberry users

The Smart Future                                            Source: Amárach Research, May 2011 12
Smartphone User Profiles


              Apple iPhone: consistent with total smartphone market
              profile, more male than female, 25-34 bias


              Nokia: stronger male bias, and older age profile -
              especially over 45s


              Samsung: strongest female bias, and youngest age profile
              – especially 15-24s


              Blackberry: strongest male bias, strongest bias towards
              25-34s, highest bias towards ABC1s, highest % with
              Masters degrees!

                                            Source: Amárach Research, May 2011
The Smart Future                                                                 13
Surfing the Web


           34% of smart phone users surfs the web on their
           smart phone when there‟s a pc/laptop nearby ...
           every day (only 1 in 4 never does this)




                                                               * all others
                                    Source: Amárach Research, May 2011
The Smart Future                                                              14
The Smart Future
Social Media Timeline
Facebook users in Ireland*
 Only Connect




                              May 2011:
                              1,937,000
   May 2009:
                              64% of internet users
    627,000                    42% of Irish adults

The Smart Future                                            16
                                           * socialbakers.com
Most Used Smartphone Apps


                   Social network apps: 56% of all smartphone users, strong
                   female bias, higher among 15-24, higher for iPhone & HTC

                   Map/travel apps: 41% of all smartphone users, stronger
                   male bias, higher among 35-44s, higher for iPhone users

                   News apps: 37% of all smartphone users, stronger male
                   bias, higher among 25-34s, higher for iPhone users

                   Music apps: 34% of all smartphone users, stronger male
                   bias, higher among 15-34s, higher for Samsung & HTC

                   Gaming apps: 28% of all smartphone users, slight male
                   bias, higher among 25-34s, higher for iPhone users

                                           Source: Amárach Research, May 2011
The Smart Future                                                                17
New App Downloads (past month)

            Average smartphone owner has downloaded 4.8
            new apps in the past month
            Downloaders more likely to be male/25-34




                                                               * all others
                                     Source: Amárach Research, May 2011
The Smart Future                                                              18
The Smart Future
Sources of information about Apps:




           W.O.M.
                            web

                                     adverts

 83% of smartphone users are on Facebook
 25% of smartphone users use twitter
Smart Ads

             27% of smart phone users have clicked on an
             advertisement on their smart phone (whether
             online or in an app)
             More likely to be male/15-24s




                                                               * all others
                                    Source: Amárach Research, May 2011
The Smart Future                                                              20
The Smart Future




3. The Smart Future
   next wave capitalism
The Smart Cycle




The Smart Future   22
Hard Choice


  Which would you choose if you had to choose between having
  a smartphone or having a laptop (with internet access)?
  % choosing their smartphone:




                                                            * all others
                                 Source: Amárach Research, May 2011
The Smart Future                                                           23
Economics Will Still Drive Uptake




The Smart Future                     24
Smart Recovery:
smartphones will drive consumer spending




                                           * ESRI forecasts

The Smart Future                                              25
mCommerce




                     mCommerce 2012
                      = €800m in Irish
                   consumer market terms




The Smart Future                           26
Who Will Fill The Gap First?

                      Smartphone Penetration in Ireland


                                           47%
                   55%
        63%                       63%               66%      67%
                           71%                                       73%




                                           53%
                   45%
        37%                       37%               34%      33%
                           29%                                       27%


         All       Male   Female 15-24s   25-34s   35-44s   45-54s    55+
                            smartphone    standard phone


                                             Source: Amárach Research, May 2011
The Smart Future                                                                  27
The Smart Future
Social Technology is going through its Cambrian Explosion


                                                              The
                                                            Cambrian
                                                            Explosion




   The
  Social
 Explosion
  (TSX)
The Smart Future



The consumer spending pie is
back to the size it was in 2006 (not
1986!)
When the economy recovers next
year things will not go back to
„normal‟.
Key features of the consumer
landscape have changed
irrevocably, driven by major
technology inflection points
(broadband, social networks and
smartphones).
New patterns of consumer
transactions, communications and
trust formation will emege.
Next wave capitalism will be
driven by The Social Explosion.
The Smart Future

Amárach has launched a revolutionary new
         research programme:



                TSX
  the social explosion
  To equip businesses, agencies and other
  organisations that need to track, monitor
 and manage their response to the multiple
inflection points now ahead of us in Ireland.

        For more details contact:

        Gerard O’Neill Chairman
     Sean Nolan Associate Director
or Anita Mullan Snr. Research Executive

                t. 01 410 5200
           e. info@amarach.com
            w. www.amarach.com
         b. www.amarach.com/blog
     tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

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The Smart Future - An Amárach Research Report

  • 1. The Smart Future An Amárach Briefing May 2011 © Amárach Research The Smart Future 1
  • 2. The Smart Future World’s First Smart Phone http://www.retrocom.com/bellsouth_ibm_simon.htm
  • 3. The Smart Future 1. About Amárach insight + foresight 2. The Social Explosion all together now 3. The Smart Future next wave capitalism
  • 4. The Smart Future 1. About Amárach insight + foresight
  • 5. The Smart Future We are an independent market research agency, providing a full range of research services to our Irish and international clients. We have worked with two thirds of Ireland‟s top 200 companies. Every year we survey over 100,000 people at home and abroad, as well as running hundreds of focus groups. Our experienced team of directors and executives manage online, face-to-face and cati surveys; as well as qualitative research including focus groups, in-depths and ethnographic studies. We also offer a unique field-only service to universities and international agencies. Amárach Research is proud to be:
  • 6. The Smart Future 2. The Social Explosion all together now
  • 7. Tipping Points Year in which technology used by majority of Irish adults for first time: Home PC Broadband Smartphone landline 2005 2009 2012* 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Internet Facebook 2007 2011* Mobile 2000 * Amárach forecast The Smart Future 7
  • 9. Approaching the Tipping Point The Smart Future 9
  • 10. Smart Ireland Online survey of 844 Irish mobile phone users in May 2011, including 311 smartphone users (= 37% of all with mobile phone) Q. “Is your mobile phone a „smart phone‟, i.e.: one you can use to surf the internet, download apps etc? (E.g.: Apple iPhone, BlackBerry, Nokia N & E series, HTC, Samsung and certain other types of touch phones etc)” The Smart Future 10
  • 11. Mind The Gap Smartphone Penetration in Ireland 47% 55% 63% 63% 66% 67% 71% 73% 53% 45% 37% 37% 34% 33% 29% 27% All Male Female 15-24s 25-34s 35-44s 45-54s 55+ smartphone standard phone Source: Amárach Research, May 2011 The Smart Future 11
  • 12. Smartphone Handsets Market Share Smartphone users have had a mobile phone for over 12 years (any kind), slightly longer than average user (11 years). The average smartphone user has had a smartphone for 12 months (Blackberry users for 22 months!) * all others NB: caution using data as small sample for HTC & Blackberry users The Smart Future Source: Amárach Research, May 2011 12
  • 13. Smartphone User Profiles Apple iPhone: consistent with total smartphone market profile, more male than female, 25-34 bias Nokia: stronger male bias, and older age profile - especially over 45s Samsung: strongest female bias, and youngest age profile – especially 15-24s Blackberry: strongest male bias, strongest bias towards 25-34s, highest bias towards ABC1s, highest % with Masters degrees! Source: Amárach Research, May 2011 The Smart Future 13
  • 14. Surfing the Web 34% of smart phone users surfs the web on their smart phone when there‟s a pc/laptop nearby ... every day (only 1 in 4 never does this) * all others Source: Amárach Research, May 2011 The Smart Future 14
  • 15. The Smart Future Social Media Timeline
  • 16. Facebook users in Ireland* Only Connect May 2011: 1,937,000 May 2009: 64% of internet users 627,000 42% of Irish adults The Smart Future 16 * socialbakers.com
  • 17. Most Used Smartphone Apps Social network apps: 56% of all smartphone users, strong female bias, higher among 15-24, higher for iPhone & HTC Map/travel apps: 41% of all smartphone users, stronger male bias, higher among 35-44s, higher for iPhone users News apps: 37% of all smartphone users, stronger male bias, higher among 25-34s, higher for iPhone users Music apps: 34% of all smartphone users, stronger male bias, higher among 15-34s, higher for Samsung & HTC Gaming apps: 28% of all smartphone users, slight male bias, higher among 25-34s, higher for iPhone users Source: Amárach Research, May 2011 The Smart Future 17
  • 18. New App Downloads (past month) Average smartphone owner has downloaded 4.8 new apps in the past month Downloaders more likely to be male/25-34 * all others Source: Amárach Research, May 2011 The Smart Future 18
  • 19. The Smart Future Sources of information about Apps: W.O.M. web adverts 83% of smartphone users are on Facebook 25% of smartphone users use twitter
  • 20. Smart Ads 27% of smart phone users have clicked on an advertisement on their smart phone (whether online or in an app) More likely to be male/15-24s * all others Source: Amárach Research, May 2011 The Smart Future 20
  • 21. The Smart Future 3. The Smart Future next wave capitalism
  • 22. The Smart Cycle The Smart Future 22
  • 23. Hard Choice Which would you choose if you had to choose between having a smartphone or having a laptop (with internet access)? % choosing their smartphone: * all others Source: Amárach Research, May 2011 The Smart Future 23
  • 24. Economics Will Still Drive Uptake The Smart Future 24
  • 25. Smart Recovery: smartphones will drive consumer spending * ESRI forecasts The Smart Future 25
  • 26. mCommerce mCommerce 2012 = €800m in Irish consumer market terms The Smart Future 26
  • 27. Who Will Fill The Gap First? Smartphone Penetration in Ireland 47% 55% 63% 63% 66% 67% 71% 73% 53% 45% 37% 37% 34% 33% 29% 27% All Male Female 15-24s 25-34s 35-44s 45-54s 55+ smartphone standard phone Source: Amárach Research, May 2011 The Smart Future 27
  • 28. The Smart Future Social Technology is going through its Cambrian Explosion The Cambrian Explosion The Social Explosion (TSX)
  • 29. The Smart Future The consumer spending pie is back to the size it was in 2006 (not 1986!) When the economy recovers next year things will not go back to „normal‟. Key features of the consumer landscape have changed irrevocably, driven by major technology inflection points (broadband, social networks and smartphones). New patterns of consumer transactions, communications and trust formation will emege. Next wave capitalism will be driven by The Social Explosion.
  • 30. The Smart Future Amárach has launched a revolutionary new research programme: TSX the social explosion To equip businesses, agencies and other organisations that need to track, monitor and manage their response to the multiple inflection points now ahead of us in Ireland. For more details contact: Gerard O’Neill Chairman Sean Nolan Associate Director or Anita Mullan Snr. Research Executive t. 01 410 5200 e. info@amarach.com w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch