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INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
         BY
     AMLIN DAVID
What is an Industry?



    Webster’s dictionary defines industry as “ a department
    or branch of a craft, art business, or manufacture.” And
    more specifically
    A group of productive or profit making enterprises or
    organizations that have a similar technological structure
    of production and that produce or supply technically
    substitutable goods, services, or sources of income
Usefulness of Industry Analysis

  1. Provides insight into the key sectors or subdivisions of
     overall economic activity that influence particular
     industries, and
  2. To know the relative strength or weakness of
     particular industry or other groupings under specific
     sets of assumptions about that economic activity. The
     analyst with an economic forecast that he has
     developed from scratch, or a set of figures that he has
     developed from forecasts prepared by others is now
     ready to apply this information in an appropriate
     industry.
Industry classification by product



    Industry classification by product does not present a
    terribly acute problem for the astute analyst when he is
    classifying firms with the basically one product or a
    homogeneous group of products. The problem worsens
    considerably, however, when he deals with a firm that
    has diversified its product line. Unfortunately, today the
    latter case is the rule rather than exception.
Standard industrial classification



    In order to provide an organized reporting framework
    for the vast amount of data collected by the federal
    government, the SIC was developed. The SIC is the
    statistical classification standard underlying all
    establishment based federal economic status classified
    by industry
Industrial division                            Major groups

A                     Agriculture, forestry    01-09
                      and fishing
B                     Mining                   10-14
C                     Construction             15-17
D                     Manufacturing            20-39
E                     Transportation,          40-49
                      communication,
                      electric gas and
                      sanitary services
F                     Wholesale trade-         50-51
                      Durable goods
G                     Retail trade             52-59
H                     Finance, insurance and   60-67
                      real estate
I                     Services                 70-89
J                     Public administration    91-97
K                     Nonclassifiable          99
                      establishments
The major groups detailed in the table and identified by two digit
codes are further subdivided into three- digit industry groups and,
finally, into four digit industries
Parameters of Industry Analysis

    Growth of the industry
    Profitability
    Nature of the product
    Nature of competition
    Government policies
    Availability of labor
    Research and development
    Index
Industry classification according to business
                        cycle
Another way of classifying industries is in a cyclical framework,
that is how they react to upswings and downswings in the
economy. The general classifications in the framework are growth,
cyclical, defensive and cyclical growth.
Growth industries are generally characterized by expectations of
abnormally high rates of expansion in earnings, often independent
of the business cycle. Frequently this type of situation is associated
with a major change in the state of technology or an innovative
way of doing or selling something
Cyclical industries are considered to be those most likely to
benefit from a period of economic prosperity and most likely to
suffer from a period of economic recession.
Defensive industries are those, such as the food processing
industry, hurt least in periods f economic downswing. Defensive
industries often contains firms whose securities an investor might
hold for income. Defensive stocks might even be considered
countercyclical , because their earnings might very well expand
while earnings of cyclical stocks are declining.
The investment press and brokerage firms have coined yet another
classification, that of cyclical growth industries. Obviously, these
possess characteristics of both a cyclical industry and growth
industry
Key characteristics in an Industry Analysis

 Past sales and earnings performance
 Permanence of the industry
 Attitude of government towards the industry
 Labor conditions within the industry
 Competitive conditions as reflected in any barriers to entry that
 might exist
 Stock prices of firms in the industry relative to their earnings
Industry life cycle

The life of an industry can be separated into
1. Pioneering stage
2. Expansion stage
3. Stagnation stage
4. Decay stage
External sources of information for industry
analysis

  1.   Federal government
  2.   Investment services
  3.   Standard & Poor’s
  4.   The value line
  5.   Forbes
  6.   Trade Publications
  7.   Funk and Scott Index
References


Securities analysis and portfolio management-
Jonathan and Fisher
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Industry analysis

  • 1. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS BY AMLIN DAVID
  • 2. What is an Industry? Webster’s dictionary defines industry as “ a department or branch of a craft, art business, or manufacture.” And more specifically A group of productive or profit making enterprises or organizations that have a similar technological structure of production and that produce or supply technically substitutable goods, services, or sources of income
  • 3. Usefulness of Industry Analysis 1. Provides insight into the key sectors or subdivisions of overall economic activity that influence particular industries, and 2. To know the relative strength or weakness of particular industry or other groupings under specific sets of assumptions about that economic activity. The analyst with an economic forecast that he has developed from scratch, or a set of figures that he has developed from forecasts prepared by others is now ready to apply this information in an appropriate industry.
  • 4. Industry classification by product Industry classification by product does not present a terribly acute problem for the astute analyst when he is classifying firms with the basically one product or a homogeneous group of products. The problem worsens considerably, however, when he deals with a firm that has diversified its product line. Unfortunately, today the latter case is the rule rather than exception.
  • 5. Standard industrial classification In order to provide an organized reporting framework for the vast amount of data collected by the federal government, the SIC was developed. The SIC is the statistical classification standard underlying all establishment based federal economic status classified by industry
  • 6. Industrial division Major groups A Agriculture, forestry 01-09 and fishing B Mining 10-14 C Construction 15-17 D Manufacturing 20-39 E Transportation, 40-49 communication, electric gas and sanitary services F Wholesale trade- 50-51 Durable goods G Retail trade 52-59 H Finance, insurance and 60-67 real estate I Services 70-89 J Public administration 91-97 K Nonclassifiable 99 establishments
  • 7. The major groups detailed in the table and identified by two digit codes are further subdivided into three- digit industry groups and, finally, into four digit industries
  • 8. Parameters of Industry Analysis Growth of the industry Profitability Nature of the product Nature of competition Government policies Availability of labor Research and development Index
  • 9. Industry classification according to business cycle Another way of classifying industries is in a cyclical framework, that is how they react to upswings and downswings in the economy. The general classifications in the framework are growth, cyclical, defensive and cyclical growth. Growth industries are generally characterized by expectations of abnormally high rates of expansion in earnings, often independent of the business cycle. Frequently this type of situation is associated with a major change in the state of technology or an innovative way of doing or selling something Cyclical industries are considered to be those most likely to benefit from a period of economic prosperity and most likely to suffer from a period of economic recession.
  • 10. Defensive industries are those, such as the food processing industry, hurt least in periods f economic downswing. Defensive industries often contains firms whose securities an investor might hold for income. Defensive stocks might even be considered countercyclical , because their earnings might very well expand while earnings of cyclical stocks are declining. The investment press and brokerage firms have coined yet another classification, that of cyclical growth industries. Obviously, these possess characteristics of both a cyclical industry and growth industry
  • 11. Key characteristics in an Industry Analysis Past sales and earnings performance Permanence of the industry Attitude of government towards the industry Labor conditions within the industry Competitive conditions as reflected in any barriers to entry that might exist Stock prices of firms in the industry relative to their earnings
  • 12. Industry life cycle The life of an industry can be separated into 1. Pioneering stage 2. Expansion stage 3. Stagnation stage 4. Decay stage
  • 13. External sources of information for industry analysis 1. Federal government 2. Investment services 3. Standard & Poor’s 4. The value line 5. Forbes 6. Trade Publications 7. Funk and Scott Index
  • 14. References Securities analysis and portfolio management- Jonathan and Fisher