Against the flow: new power dynamics in the Nile Basin

Against the flow: new power dynamics in the Nile Basin EPD Seminars King’s College London 1st November 2011 Ana Elisa Cascão Stockholm International Water Institute

The Nile River Basin THE REGION 10+1 riparian states 160 million inhabitants Underdeveloped (but growing) economies Conflict-stricken region Low levels of regional integration Complex hydropolitics

abc of Nile Basin Hydropolitics SECURITISATION HYDRO-SOVEREIGNTY COOPERATION ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011 Changing realpolitik : new geopolitical actors, corridors, dynamics, ... ‘ Land grabbing’: Growing economic interest for Nile natural resources Regional integration: Towards economic multilaterism Unilateralism: Unilateral hydraulic development

The Hydropolitical chessboard pre-2011 Official ‘ dyad’ UpstreamBloc

2011: Tipping point(s) in the hydropolitical trajectory in the Nile Basin

Implications of the several ‘events’?

Republic South Sudan: Referendum and independence

Egypt: Revolution and Fall of Mubarak

Burundi signs the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA)

Ethiopia: Grand Renaissance Dam and Tripartite Committee

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Against the flow: new power dynamics in the Nile Basin

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Against the flow: new power dynamics in the Nile Basin