Mobile Factbook 2011 (Portio Research Ltd)

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© 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 1
Mobile Factbook – February 2011

2 © 2011, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
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Published February 2011 by Portio Research Limited © Copyright 2011.
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Contents
Worldwide Mobile Market........................................................................................................6
Subscriber Base................................................................................................................................... 6
Worldwide Subscriber Base – Regional Contribution........................................................................... 7
Worldwide Mobile Revenue.....................................................................................................9
Worldwide Mobile Service Revenue .................................................................................................... 9
Revenue Comparison of Mobile and Other Major Industries ............................................................. 10
Mobile Data Services .............................................................................................................11
Overview............................................................................................................................................ 11
Mobile Data Use per Subscriber per Month....................................................................................... 11
Mobile Broadband User Base............................................................................................................ 11
Mobile Applications............................................................................................................................ 12
Emerging Mobile Applications............................................................................................................ 13
Mobile Augmented Reality .............................................................................................................. 13
Mobile Payments ............................................................................................................................... 14
Mobile Payment Users .................................................................................................................... 14
Market Size ..................................................................................................................................... 14
Network Deployments ...........................................................................................................16
Introduction to advanced Network Technologies – 3G, 3.5G, 4G...................................................... 16
3G and above Subscribers ................................................................................................................ 16
LTE Deployments and Trials.............................................................................................................. 18
Mobile Messaging Services ..................................................................................................20
Worldwide Messaging Revenue ........................................................................................................ 20
Annual Messaging ARPU .................................................................................................................. 20
Messaging Revenues by Region ....................................................................................................... 21
Worldwide SMS and MMS Traffic ...................................................................................................... 22
Mobile Handset Industry .......................................................................................................24
Worldwide Handset Shipments.......................................................................................................... 24
Worldwide Smartphone Shipments.................................................................................................... 25
Mobile Infrastructure Market.................................................................................................26
Overview............................................................................................................................................ 26
Market share of Mobile Infrastructure Vendors.................................................................................. 27
Also available from Portio Research Limited ..................................................................................... 28

List of Figures
Figure 1: Mobile Subscriber Base – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2015F) ........................................ 6
Figure 2: Worldwide Subscriber Base – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2010) ............................ 7
Figure 3: Worldwide Subscriber Base – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2015F) .......................... 8
Figure 4: Mobile Service Revenue — Worldwide (In USD Billion, End 2009 – End 2015F) ............... 9
Figure 5: Revenues of Major Industries — Worldwide (In USD Billion, End 2008 & End 2009) ....... 10
Figure 6: Comparison of Mobile Services with Other Industries — Y-o-Y Growth in Revenue (2009)
.......................................................................................................................................... 10
Figure 7: Mobile Data Use per Subscriber per Month – Regional (In MB, 2009 – 2014F) ............... 11
Figure 8: Mobile Broadband User Base – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2014F) ............................. 12
Figure 9: Mobile Applications User Base – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2015F)............................ 12
Figure 10: Mobile Application Downloads – Worldwide (In Billion, 2009 – 2015F)............................. 13
Figure 11: Mobile Payment Users and Penetration – Worldwide (2009 – 2014F).............................. 14
Figure 12: Mobile Payment Volumes – Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2009 – 2014F)............................ 15
Figure 13: Technology Forecast — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) .......................... 17
Figure 14: Regional Break-out of LTE Deployments (In Percent, End 2015F) ................................... 18
Figure 15: Cumulative LTE Deployments – Worldwide (End 2010 – End 2015F) .............................. 19
Figure 16: Mobile Messaging Revenue – Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2008 – 2015F)........................ 20
Figure 17: Annual Messaging ARPU – Worldwide (In USD, 2008 – 2015F) ...................................... 21
Figure 18: Worldwide Mobile Messaging Revenue – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2010)......... 21
Figure 19: SMS Traffic – Worldwide (In Billion, 2008 – 2015F).......................................................... 22
Figure 20: MMS Traffic – Worldwide (In Billion, 2008 – 2015F) ......................................................... 23
Figure 21: Mobile Handset Shipments — Worldwide (In Million, 2009– 2015F)................................. 24
Figure 22: Smartphone Shipments as a Percentage of Handset Shipments – Worldwide (In Million,
2009 – 2015F) .................................................................................................................. 25
Figure 23: Mobile Equipment Spend — Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2008 – 2015F)........................... 26
Figure 24: Market Share of Mobile Infrastructure Vendors (Q2 2010)................................................ 27

List of Tables
Table 1: Mobile Subscribers – Regional (In Million, 2009 – 2015F) .................................................. 7
Table 2: Mobile Subscribers for 3G and Above Networks – Regional (In Million, 2009 – 2015F) ... 17

Worldwide Mobile Market
Subscriber Base
Mobile communication has undoubtedly revolutionised the telecommunications industry.
Year after year, the mobile market has reported significant growth worldwide. The
exceptional growth in Western markets is mirrored by the upswing in the emerging markets
of Asia Pacific, and it has now also smoothly transitioned in the Africa and Middle East
region. Advanced networks, attractive tariff plans, affordable handsets and the availability of
enhanced data services – such as mobile apps, mobile payments and high-speed mobile
Internet – have fuelled this impressive growth.
The number of mobile subscribers worldwide stood at nearly 5.3 billion at end-2010. The
subscriber base is forecast to increase at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.9
percent between 2010 and 2015 to reach nearly 7.4 billion by end-2015.
The figure below highlights the growth in worldwide mobile subscriber base during 2008-
2015.
Figure 1: Mobile Subscriber Base – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2015F)
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
F – Forecasted
The emerging markets of Asia Pacific and the Africa and Middle East (AME) region will lead
the mobile subscriber base growth, while the advanced markets of North America and
Western Europe will witness moderate growth.
4,655.8
5,254.6
5,787.1
6,262.5
6,675.1
7,037.9
7,351.5
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
MobileSubscriberBase
(InMillion)
Year

Table 1: Mobile Subscribers – Regional (In Million, 2009 – 2015F)
1
Region
Mobile Subscribers (In Million) CAGR
(In
Percent,
2009–
2015)
2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
Western
Europe
499.9 518.3 530.5 540.7 549.3 556.6 562.8 2.0
Eastern
Europe
538.4 560.3 584.6 600.5 613.0 622.8 630.3 2.7
Asia Pacific 2,132.1 2,521.2 2,856.5 3,156.4 3,416.5 3,643.9 3,838.1 10.3
North
America
313.5 334.6 352.1 368.0 382.2 395.0 406.3 4.4
Latin
America
494.0 534.8 574.4 608.1 637.9 663.9 686.5 5.6
Africa and
Middle East
677.9 785.4 889.0 988.8 1,076.1 1,155.7 1,227.5 10.4
Total 4,655.8 5,254.6 5,787.1 6,262.5 6,675.1 7,037.9 7,351.5 7.9
Worldwide Subscriber Base – Regional Contribution
Asia Pacific’s subscribers constituted 48 percent of the worldwide mobile subscriber base in
2010, while the second largest contribution was Europe with 20.5 percent. The figure below
depicts regional contribution to the worldwide mobile subscriber base in 2010.
Between 2010-2015, the percentage contribution of the Asia Pacific and AME regions to the
worldwide subscriber base is expected to increase at the expense of the remaining regions,
which will see declines during the same period. Asia Pacific will continue to dominate the
worldwide mobile market, and in 2015 over 52 percent of worldwide mobile subscribers will
originate from this region. The percentage contribution of the AME region will rise from 14.9
1
Note: Sum of regional numbers may not equal total due to rounding off errors.
Figure 2: Worldwide Subscriber Base – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2010)
20.5%
48.0%
6.4%
10.2%
14.9%
Europe Asia Pacific North America Latin America Africa and Middle East

percent at end-2010 to 16.7 percent at end-2015. The percentage contributions of other
regions are expected to decrease continuously over the same period. The increase in
subscriber base share for the Asia Pacific and AME regions can be ascribed to the strong
subscriber base growth in the emerging markets.
The figure below depicts regional contribution to the worldwide mobile subscriber base in
2015.
Further recommended reading:
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015
Mobile Messaging Futures 2011-2015
2
Note: The percentages do not add up to 100 percent because of rounding off errors.
Figure 3: Worldwide Subscriber Base – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2015F)
2
F – Forecasted
16.2%
52.2% 5.5%
9.3%
16.7%

Worldwide Mobile Revenue
Worldwide Mobile Service Revenue
In 2009, mobile services generated over USD 1 trillion in revenue worldwide, recorded
nearly USD 1.2 trillion in 2010, and are now expected to break USD 1.7 trillion by end-2015
– after growing at a CAGR of 8.7 percent between 2009 and 2015. Service revenue growth
is expected to outpace mobile subscriber growth by end-2012; the launch of advanced
network technologies – such as LTE and WiMAX – will significantly boost the uptake of data
services and, in turn, higher data revenues in developed markets. Emerging markets are
also witnessing an upward trend in the adoption of data services, offering impetus to service
revenues.
Figure 4: Mobile Service Revenue — Worldwide (In USD Billion, End 2009 – End 2015F)
3
F – Forecasted
3
Note: The 2010 figure shown here was originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in November 2010,
and has not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook.
1,053.0
1,174.9
1,292.5
1,416.2
1,531.4
1,639.2
1,737.8
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
MobileServiceRevenue
(InUSDBillion)
Year

Revenue Comparison of Mobile and Other Major Industries
The mobile market, in terms of revenue generated in 2009, has outperformed the Software
and Services, Pharmaceuticals, IT Hardware and Semiconductor markets. Of these five
markets, mobile services exhibited the highest growth in 2008–2009, followed by Software
and Services. The IT hardware industry was the worst affected by the recessionary period.
Figure 5: Revenues of Major Industries — Worldwide (In USD Billion, End 2008 & End 2009)
Figure 6: Comparison of Mobile Services with Other Industries — Y-o-Y Growth in Revenue
(2009)
912.1 967.0
735.0
594.0
249.0
1,053.0
912.2
837.0
536.3
228.4
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Mobile Services Software and
Services
Pharmaceuticals IT Hardware Semiconductor
Revenues
(InUSDBillion)
Industry
23.1%
-5.7%
13.9%
-9.7%
-8.3%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Mobile Services
Software and Services
Pharmaceuticals
IT Hardware
Semiconductors
Year

Mobile Data Services
Overview
The worldwide mobile market has become very competitive and voice ARPU (Average
Revenue Per User) is in decline in most markets worldwide. Mobile Network Operators
(MNOs) are adopting various strategies to increase revenue from sources other than voice.
The focus has already shifted from voice to data services and MNOs are adopting advanced
technologies such as Long Term Evolution (LTE) and Worldwide Interoperability for
Microwave Access (WiMAX) to build their data handling capacities.
Mobile Data Use per Subscriber per Month
As mobile technology has evolved, so have mobile subscribers. Mobile customers now
record higher data usage levels – in some cases astronomically so – and have much higher
expectation levels for mobile services. Massive growth in the use of data services on mobile
handsets and laptops through 3G and 3.5G networks has been seen, and mobile
applications – including social networking, video sharing and online gaming – are gaining
increasing popularity.
Figure 7: Mobile Data Use per Subscriber per Month – Regional (In MB, 2009 – 2014F)
4 5
Source: Cisco VNI Mobile Forecasts and Portio Research Ltd.
F – Forecasted
Mobile Broadband User Base
The mobile broadband market is gaining momentum worldwide. The evolution of mobile
networks has enabled high-speed data transfer and has made mobile broadband more
attractive to subscribers. The worldwide user base for mobile broadband stood at 371.7
million at end-2009. With MNOs making huge investments to improve the quality and utility
of services, the mobile broadband user base is expected to grow at a CAGR of 36.4 percent
between 2009 and 2014 to reach nearly 1.8 billion by end-2014. Worldwide, the percentage
4
Note: The forecasts for mobile data traffic per subscriber per month have been made based on the total mobile
subscriber base forecasts in the mentioned regions.
5
Note: 2010 figures shown here were originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in August 2010, and
have not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook.
31
72 167
346
631
1,015
19
39 82
158 272
415
53
127
308
662
1,252
2,083
9 21 47 96 173
276
3 8 19 42 82 140
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F
MobileDataTraffic(InMB)

of mobile subscribers using mobile broadband is expected to grow from 8.1 percent at end-
2009 to 27.8 percent by end-2014. The figure below depicts the mobile broadband user
base from 2009 to 2014.
Figure 8: Mobile Broadband User Base – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2014F)
6
F – Forecasted
Mobile Applications
Mobile applications are rapidly changing the nature of the mobile industry, supporting the
ongoing transformation of handsets from simple communication devices into gadgets with
powerful information, entertainment and productivity features, as well as boosting the use of
mobile data services.
The figure below depicts the mobile applications user base from 2009 to 2015.
Figure 9: Mobile Applications User Base – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2015F)
7
F – Forecasted
6
Note: The 2010 figure shown here was originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in June 2010, and has
not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook. This also applies to the accompanying service penetration text.
7
Note: The 2010 figure shown here was originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in October 2010, and
has not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook.
371.7
521.6
721.1
975.6
1,316.5
1,757.5
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F
MobileBroadbandUserBase
(InMillion)
Year
38.7
69.1
100.4
136.3
174.9
213.9
255.9
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
MobileApplicationsUserBase
(InMillion)
Year

The increasing number of mobile application downloads reflects the growing uptake of
mobile application services. The number of downloads is expected to increase at a CAGR of
53.2 percent in the period between 2009 and 2015, and this is depicted in the figure below.
Figure 10: Mobile Application Downloads – Worldwide (In Billion, 2009 – 2015F)
8
F – Forecasted
Emerging Mobile Applications
Mobile Augmented Reality
At present, the market for Mobile Augmented Reality (MAR) applications is relatively small
due to the limited number of devices supporting the technology. MAR can contribute to
enhancements and innovations in many mobile application categories, such as gaming,
entertainment, location-based searches, education, social networking, retail, travel and
tourism – with mobile gaming and location-based search apps being the key categories.
Currently, the market is dominated by small start-ups with developer teams who are driving
innovation. In future, established players such as Apple, Google, Microsoft, RIM and (at
publication) Nokia, who also have their own OS platforms and developer tools, will be
strongly placed to dominate this space.
Moreover, developments in areas such as real-time face recognition and visual searches are
expected to make MAR even more attractive and useful to users. Owing to the large amount
of utility that is expected to be derived from MAR, this technology is expected to spread
across all industries.
8
Note: The 2010 figure shown here was originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in October 2010, and
has not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook.
2.9
6.7
11.1
16.3
22.6
29.6
37.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
MobileApplicationDownloads
(InBillion)
Year

Mobile Payments
In light of falling voice ARPU, mobile operators around the world are focusing their efforts on
stabilising ARPU by promoting mobile data services. Mobile payment services are also a
part of MNOs’ promotional campaigns, and operators – either on their own or in partnership
with banks and mobile payment service providers – are developing platforms and
applications to offer mobile payment services. With such initiatives in place, the mobile
payments segment has established itself in several advanced mobile markets worldwide and
is now expanding its reach in emerging markets as well.
Mobile Payment Users
In 2010, there were 116 million mobile payment users worldwide; this number is forecast to
reach nearly 490 million by the end of 2014. The figure below highlights the number of
mobile payment users worldwide and their penetration within the worldwide mobile
subscriber base between 2009 and 2014.
Market Size
Mobile payment volumes were USD 108.3 billion in 2010 and are forecast to reach USD
633.4 billon by end-2014. The next figure depicts the growth of mobile payment volumes
between 2009 and 2014.
9
Note: 2010 figures shown here were originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in March 2010, and have
not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook. Please also note that Portio’s worldwide mobile subscriber
forecasts have since been recast, which may have some bearing on the forecasted service penetration levels.
Figure 11: Mobile Payment Users and Penetration – Worldwide (2009 – 2014F)
9
F – Forecasted
81.3 116.0
165.5
237.3
340.6
489.5
1.8
2.3
3.0
4.1
5.6
7.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F
MobilePaymentPenetration
(InPercent)
Users(InMillion)
Year
Users (In Million) Mobile Payment Penetration (In Percent)

Figure 12: Mobile Payment Volumes – Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2009 – 2014F)
10
F – Forecasted
Mobile Applications Futures 2010-2015
LTE and the Road to 4G 2010-2015
Mobile Payments 2010-2014
Strategies for Driving Mobile Data and Broadband Adoption
10
Note: The 2010 figure shown here was also originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in March 2010,
and has not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook.
68.7
108.3
171.0
270.0
415.5
633.4
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F
MobilePaymentVolumes
(InUSDBillion)
Year

Network Deployments
Introduction to advanced Network Technologies – 3G, 3.5G, 4G
3G
• 3G is an International Telecommunication Union (ITU) specification for the third
generation of mobile communication technology.
• 3G technologies are typically packet-switched and use Code Division Multiple Access
(CDMA) technology to communicate. Examples of 3G include 1xRTT, HDR and W-
CDMA.
3.5G
• 3.5G technologies are the evolution of 3G technologies to enable broadband speeds
in mobile networks
• There are several protocols in the High-Speed Packet Access (HSPA) family, also
coined 3.5G or 3G+, which allow networks based on Universal Mobile
Telecommunications System (UMTS) to have higher data transfer speeds and
capacity
• HSPA refers to a family of broadband technologies – HSDPA and HSUPA
4G
• 4G or fourth generation WWAN (Wireless Wide Area Network) communication
systems are characterised by high-speed data rates at 20+ Mbps, suitable for high-
resolution movies and television
• Some competing technology standards for 4G technologies are mobile WiMAX, the
GSM standard’s UMTS Long Term Evolution (LTE), and CDMA EV-DO Rev. C (also
known as Ultra-Mobile Broadband or UMB)
WiMAX
• Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) refers to the 802.16e
technologies which have evolved through several enhancements of the 802.11
technologies (used for providing Wi-Fi services)
• WiMAX enables high-order modulation, efficient coding, adaptive modulation and
coding as well as Hybrid Automatic Repeat Request (HARQ), which is similar to the
GSM technology HSPA (High-Speed Packet Access)
Long-Term Evolution (LTE)
• LTE is the standard being developed by 3GPP (3rd Generation Partnership Project) to
achieve download rates of 100 Mbps, and upload rates of 50 Mbps for every 20MHz of
spectrum and is termed as a 4G standard
• LTE will have support for bandwidths ranging from 1.25MHz to 20MHz
3G and above Subscribers
MNOs are moving towards 3G and above networks to improve spectral efficiency and to
provide better quality of service (QoS), especially for data services. 2009 saw wide-scale
adoption of 3G and 3.5G networks, even in emerging markets, and developed markets are
now keen to move to 4G networks to accommodate burgeoning data traffic. By end-2010,
nearly 22.5 percent of the total subscriber base worldwide used services based on 3G and
above networks.

The following figure provides the worldwide subscriber forecast for 3G and above services.
Figure 13: Technology Forecast — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F)
11
F – Forecasted
Table 2: Mobile Subscribers for 3G and Above Networks – Regional (In Million, 2009 –
2015F)
12
Region
Mobile Subscribers for 3G and Above Networks (In Million)
2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
Europe 333.7 468.5 640.8 796.1 920.7 1,036.1 1,085.6
Asia
Pacific
288.3 411.0 720.7 1,109.0 1,556.9 2,019.2 2,388.6
North
America
74.4 124.6 174.0 220.1 261.6 301.4 316.4
Latin
America
22.3 58.3 103.4 158.2 219.3 280.6 302.2
Africa
and
Middle
East
60.9 119.5 204.7 309.2 428.2 552.3 604.6
Total 779.5 1,181.9 1,843.5 2,592.6 3,386.8 4,189.6 4,697.4
11
Note: 2010 figures shown here were originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in November 2010, and
have not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook. This also applies to the accompanying Table 2.
12
Note: Sum of regional numbers may not equal total due to rounding off errors.
3,876.3 4,072.7 3,943.6 3,669.9 3,288.3 2,848.3 2,654.1
779.5
1,181.9
1,843.5
2,592.6
3,386.8
4,189.6
4,697.4
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
MobileSubscribers
(InMillion)
Year
3G and above 2G and others

LTE Deployments and Trials
Mobile markets worldwide have witnessed a surge in the number of MNOs committing to
LTE network deployment as a path for moving towards 4G services. With MNOs putting their
weight behind LTE proliferation, a diverse and competitive ecosystem of devices and
infrastructure products is expected to emerge. This shift of manufacturing ecosystem
towards LTE will help in bringing down the cost of devices and of network deployments.
Therefore, as LTE deployments gain momentum, the incentive for other MNOs for following
suit also increases.
According to the announcements made to end-June 2010, 158 LTE deployments (including
on-going network deployments, trials and commitments of which two were in-service) are
scheduled before end-2015.13
The figure on the next page shows worldwide cumulative LTE deployments to 2015.
The figure below forecasts a regional break-out of these 158 LTE deployments.
13
Source: http://www.3gamericas.org/documents/Global%20Status%20Update%20June%2014%202010.pdf
14
Note: As the accompanying text explains, “deployments” here refers to the number of LTE networks expected to
be in service by end-2015— based on data as of June 2010.
Figure 14: Regional Break-out of LTE Deployments (In Percent, End 2015F)
14
36.7%
26.6%
10.1%
17.1%
9.5%

Figure 15: Cumulative LTE Deployments – Worldwide (End 2010 – End 2015F)
15
F – Forecasted
LTE and the Road to 4G 2010-2015
15
Note: Cumulative LTE deployments refer to the number of LTE networks expected to be in service by the end of
the years mentioned in this figure. Cumulative LTE deployment forecasts till 2015 include all the deployments
taking place before 2015. Also, the 2010 figure shown here was originally shown as 2010F at the time of
publication in August 2010, and has not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook
29
56
79
106
131
158
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
LTEDeployments
Year

Mobile Messaging Services
Messaging services have shown promising growth in the past and are anticipated to grow in
the future too. Intense competition, fierce price wars and commoditisation of voice in some
markets has led to a decline in average revenue per user (ARPU). In order to recoup
revenues lost to falling voice service charges, operators have shifted their focus to promote
data services, with mobile messaging services being key among these. MNOs are making
huge investments in high-speed networks, combined with offering discounted or unlimited
plans, to push the uptake of messaging services among subscribers.
Worldwide Messaging Revenue
The worldwide mobile messaging market was worth USD 179.2 billion in 2010. This number
is forecast to rise to USD 334.7 billion by end-2015, at a CAGR of 13.3 percent between
2010 and 2015.
The figure below depicts worldwide mobile messaging revenue during 2008-2015.
Figure 16:Mobile Messaging Revenue – Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2008 – 2015F)
16
F – Forecasted
Annual Messaging ARPU
In 2009, there was a drop in annual messaging ARPU. This was because of the worldwide
economic downturn in which users had restricted their spending. However, the market
recovered and annual messaging ARPU stood at USD 36.2 in 2010. This figure is expected
to increase in the coming years and reach USD 46.5 by end-2015.
16
Note: This and other messaging data sets are taken from a report written in the fourth quarter of 2010. As such,
quoted full year 2010 figures use data collected from the first three quarters of 2010 and estimations for the fourth
then-unavailable quarter.
129.1
148.4
179.2
209.8
241.8
274.9
306.0
334.7
0
70
140
210
280
350
2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
MobileMessagingRevenue
(InUSDBillion)
Year

Figure 17:Annual Messaging ARPU – Worldwide (In USD, 2008 – 2015F)
F – Forecasted
Messaging Revenues by Region
Supported by the largest subscriber base, Asia Pacific is the leading market for mobile
messaging, while Europe is the second biggest mobile messaging market worldwide in
terms of 2010 revenue. North America placed third with a 23.4 percent share, AME was
fourth, while Latin America made the least contribution to messaging revenue in 2010.
The figure below highlights these regional contributions.
The ranks of regions in 2015, in terms of contributions to worldwide mobile messaging
revenue, are expected to be the same as in 2010. Asia Pacific will still be the biggest market
and will be followed by Europe and North America.
17
Note: The percentages do not add up to 100 percent because of rounding off errors.
35.0 34.1
36.2
38.0
40.1
42.5
44.6
46.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
AnnualMessagingARPU
(InUSD)
Year
Figure 18: Worldwide Mobile Messaging Revenue – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2010)
17
30.7%
37.0%
23.4%
3.6%5.4%

Worldwide SMS and MMS Traffic
Short Messaging Service, simply known as SMS, has established itself as the simplest,
easiest and most economical means of personalised one-to-one communication – with SMS
volume growth statistics attesting to its popularity. With its widespread reach to virtually all
mobile subscribers (John’s Phone users being one exception), SMS has long been the most
popular messaging service and has helped MNOs significantly offset the effects of falling
voice revenue.
Over 6.9 trillion SMS were exchanged worldwide in 2010, and total SMS traffic is expected
to reach more than 11.6 trillion by end-2015—a CAGR of nearly 11 percent. The following
figure shows worldwide SMS traffic from 2008-2015.
Figure 19: SMS Traffic – Worldwide (In Billion, 2008 – 2015F)
F – Forecasted
MMS, launched with the unrealistically high expectations that it would mirror the success of
SMS and hampered by technical problems and over-pricing during its early years, has
largely solved its teething issues and retains its status as the world’s second most popular
messaging service.
Around 249 billion MMS were generated in 2010, representing a y-o-y growth rate of more
than 47 percent. This number is forecast to reach close to 592 billion by end-2015, after
increasing at a CAGR of 18.9 percent during 2010-2015. The next figure shows worldwide
MMS traffic during 2008-2015.
3,972.9
5,225.6
6,936.8
8,015.5
9,089.3
10,163.4
10,968.7
11,665.0
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
SMSTraffic
(InBillion)
Year

Figure 20: MMS Traffic – Worldwide (In Billion, 2008 – 2015F)
F – Forecasted
80.5
169.1
248.7
320.5
400.5
474.8
536.8
591.8
0
90
180
270
360
450
540
630
2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
MMSTraffic
(InBillion)
Year

Mobile Handset Industry
Worldwide Handset Shipments
Handset shipments are influenced by different factors, such as mobile penetration in a given
geography, subscriber additions in a given period, and handset replacement rates
18
• Implementation of new technologies (3G, 4G/LTE) in key geographies including North
America, Europe and Asia Pacific
. Rising
mobile penetration increases the subscriber base, which fuels the demand for handsets; and
higher penetration rates also impact replacement rates.
During 2009-2010, total worldwide handset shipments recorded an impressive growth of 12.2
percent year-on-year. Customer spending on handsets is expected to increase in the coming
years, primarily due to:
• Availability of new devices with better features and designs. There have been
numerous product launches in the last year from key vendors including Apple, RIM,
Nokia, HTC, Samsung, Sony Ericsson and Motorola – at varying price points.
• Availability of wide device portfolios across different markets, as vendors enter into
region-wide partnerships with MNOs to launch their products across multiple
geographies
• With the increasing popularity of Android OS, there has been rising demand for
Android-based handsets
Figure 21: Mobile Handset Shipments — Worldwide (In Million, 2009– 2015F)
19
F – Forecasted
18
Replacement rates: This is the frequency at which mobile subscribers substitute their old handsets with new
ones. Higher replacement rates result in growth in demand. An average replacement rate of 50 percent means
average replacement time for handsets is 2 years.
19
Note: This and other handset/smartphone data sets are taken from a report written in the fourth quarter of 2010.
As such, quoted full year 2010 figures use data collected from the first three quarters of 2010 and estimations for
the fourth then-unavailable quarter.
1,165.6
1,307.9 1,375.4
1,481.7
1,600.3
1,687.5 1,752.4
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
MobileHandsetShipments
(InMillion)
Year

Worldwide Smartphone Shipments
Despite the worldwide economic slowdown, the smartphone market registered a modest
growth rate of 16.4 percent during 2008-2009. In 2010, smartphone shipments grew at a
very impressive rate (76.5 percent y-o-y) and were the growth driver for the rebound in
2010’s total handset shipments.
This massive growth in smartphone shipments is a result of increasing demand for
smartphones in the western markets of North America and Europe. Also, the emerging
markets of Asia Pacific and Latin America are seeing rising smartphone demand, due to the
wide availability of affordable smartphone devices and supported applications.
The share of smartphones as a percentage of total worldwide handset shipments is showing
an upward trend, as depicted in the next figure.
Figure 22: Smartphone Shipments as a Percentage of Handset Shipments – Worldwide (In
Million, 2009 – 2015F)
F – Forecasted
Smartphone Futures 2011-2015
14.7%
23.1%
26.3%
29.5%
32.8%
36.1%
39.7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
ShareofSmartphoneShipments
(InPercent)
Year

Mobile Infrastructure Market
Overview
After a tough 2009, the wireless infrastructure market rebounded in 2010. Total spend on
mobile infrastructure equipment reached USD 54 billion in 2010. With both developed and
developing economies moving towards advanced networks—3.5G and 4G including LTE
and WiMAX deployments—the equipment spend is expected to increase over the coming
few years. However, since the deployment cycle for 2G is approaching maturity, particularly
in developed markets, equipment spend on 2G and 3G networks will start declining. Thus, in
2015, we anticipate a drop in total equipment spend as the equipment spend on 2G will
primarily include network maintenance and upgrades only.
Figure 23: Mobile Equipment Spend — Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2008 – 2015F)
20
F – Forecasted
The mobile market is transitioning from 2G to 3G and above technologies, impacting the
overall infrastructure spend on GSM and CDMA networks.
Impending LTE launches over the next few years will also drive the infrastructure market,
particularly in the developed markets of Europe and North America.
20
Note: Mobile equipment spend does not include services and solutions expenditure. According to Portio
estimates, mobile equipment spend currently forms nearly two-thirds of the total mobile infrastructure spend.
Please also note: The 2010 figure shown here was originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in
November 2010, and has not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook.
52.0 54.0
57.3
62.2 63.3 64.5
50.3
20
40
60
80
2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
MobileEquipmentSpend
(InUSDBillion)
Year

Market share of Mobile Infrastructure Vendors
The figure below highlights the market share of mobile infrastructure vendors at end-June
2010.
Figure 24: Market Share of Mobile Infrastructure Vendors (Q2 2010)
33.0%
20.8%
10.4%
7.5%
3.2%
20.6%
4.5%
Ericsson Nokia Siemens Alcatel-Lucent ZTE Motorola Huawei Others

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Portio Research Ltd is a UK-based research company focussing on the mobile space,
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If you have any questions or if we can be of any assistance to you, please contact us by e-
mail: info@portioresearch.com
Copyright 2011. Portio Research Limited 2011
www.portioresearch.com
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Mobile Factbook 2011 (Portio Research Ltd)

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