This document summarizes Gloucestershire County Council's approach to developing locally-derived population projections. It uses locally collected data on births, deaths, and migration rates rather than national ONS estimates. Projections are developed using the POPGROUP model with local population statistics broken down by age, gender, and small areas. Key benefits identified include more accurate projections that can better inform service planning at local levels.

5. ONS vs Locally derived population base

6. Birth rates (ONS vs Locally derived)

7. Mortality rates (ONS vs Locally derived)

8. Migration rates (ONS vs Locally-derived)

10. ONS vs Locally derived international migration

11. Key gaps with ONS projections

12. Key gaps with ONS projections

13. Key gaps with ONS projections

14. Key gaps with ONS projections

15. Key gaps with ONS projections

16. Hypothetical scenarios Impact of housing

17. Future development Economy-led scenario Small area projections Service forecasting