1. Strategic Analysis
South West Summary
Pete.Gisborne@ypla.gov.uk
Strategic Analysis Manager
YPLA Western Territory
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
Championing Young People’s Learning

2. This presentation
1. Context
2. Participation
2. The Learning Landscape
4. Attainment & Progression
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
Championing Young People’s Learning

3. South West 16-18 Population Projections 000s
205.0
200.0
over 6,700 fewer
195.0 2011-2015
190.0 2008-2017
SW 11% decline 16-18s
185.0 Eng 13% decline 16-18s
Plymouth 19% decline
180.0
N.Soms 1% decline
175.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
Championing Young People’s Learning

4. Major industries in the South West
800,000
700,000 50% of all jobs
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
Championing Young People’s Learning

5. % of 16-18s in jobs without training
16%
14%
12%
10%
Eng
8%
SW
6% Devon
Soms
4%
2%
0%
Ja 7
08
No 8
Fe 9
10
M 10
Au 7
Ap 8
Se 9
De 0
1
0
0
0
r-0
0
l- 1
-0
-1
g-
n-
p-
b-
c-
n-
v-
ay
ar
Ju
Ju
M
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
Championing Young People’s Learning

6. Resident 16-19s leaving JSA to go into learning
350
300
HSBC US
sub-prime
250 warning
Lehman
Bros.
bankrupt
200
150
100
UK
economy
50 in
recession
0
Aug-99
Feb-00
Aug-00
Feb-01
Aug-01
Feb-02
Aug-02
Feb-03
Aug-03
Feb-04
Aug-04
Feb-05
Aug-05
Feb-06
Aug-06
Feb-07
Aug-07
Feb-08
Aug-08
Feb-09
Aug-09
Feb-10
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
Championing Young People’s Learning

7. This presentation
1. Context
2. Participation
2. The Learning Landscape
4. Attainment & Progression
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
Championing Young People’s Learning

8. % of SW 16-18s NEET
10%
9%
8%
7%
6% England
South West
5%
B&NES
4% Bristol
3%
2% UK economy
in recession
1%
0%
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
ep-07
ep-08
ep-09
ep-10
S
S
S
S
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
Championing Young People’s Learning

9. Participation by SW 16-17s
50,000
40,000
30,000
2005
20,000 2006
2007
10,000 2008
2009
0
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
Championing Young People’s Learning

10. Increasing presence of Academies –
SW 16-18s
50,000
40,000
30,000
Maintained
20,000
Academies
10,000
0
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
S04 S04 S04 S02 allocated
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
Championing Young People’s Learning

11. 16-18 participation and population trends and
projections
135,000
130,000
125,000
120,000
Participation
115,000
Population
110,000
105,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Measured Projected
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
Championing Young People’s Learning

12. Annual 16-18 participation change required to
hit 2013 RPA target
600
500
400
300
population
200
participation
100
0
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
-100 Championing Young People’s Learning

13. SW learners by level
3,000 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
78% of SSF
learners @ L3
- static
2,000
nearly half of
FE learners
10% are @ L3
reduction
1,000
0
Entry Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Other Entry Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Other
Level Level Level Level
FE School Sixth Forms
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
Championing Young People’s Learning

14. This presentation
1. Context
2. Participation
2. The Learning Landscape
4. Attainment & Progression
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
Championing Young People’s Learning

15. 16-18 travel to learn – major flows
Lives Learns Number 3 year trend
Greater Bristol Bristol City of Bristol 300 no trend
[S.Gloucs]
Filton 800 -13%
South Gloucs City of Bristol 700 no trend
[Bristol]
St. Brendan's 500 154%*
into Hants Wilts Sparsholt 400 19%
Totton 200 21%
Bournemouth Brockenhurst 500 no trend
Dorset Brockenhurst 400 23%
Greater Devon Devon South Devon 900 13%
Swindon Wiltshire New College 300 -8%
Swindon College 300 no trend
Swindon Cirencester 500 51%
Greater Dorset Bournemouth & 500 38%
Bournemouth Poole YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
Championing Young People’s Learning
Poole Bournemouth & 500 38%
Poole

16. Number of 16-25s at ISPs, 2005/06 = 100%
c.600 @
200%
£54k each
88 @ 150%
£46k
Cornwall
each
100%
Dorset
c.400 @
£44k each 50% South West
England
0%
06
07
08
09
10
11
20
20
20
20
20
20
5/
6/
7/
8/
9/
0/
0
0
0
0
0
1
20
20
20
20
20
20
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
Championing Young People’s Learning

17. Science &
SW 16-18 SSF / Acad learning aims Maths =
nearly 30% of
all SW SSF
Aims
35% ‘STEM’ -
steady
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
Championing Young People’s Learning

18. SW 16-18 FE learning aims by subject
16% ‘STEM’
– rising
slightly
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
Championing Young People’s Learning

19. This presentation
1. Context
2. Participation
2. The Learning Landscape
4. Attainment & Progression
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
Championing Young People’s Learning

20. Level 2 at 19
90%
85%
80%
Percentage Attainment
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
19 in 2004/05 19 in 2005/06 19 in 2006/07 19 in 2007/08 19 in 2008/09 19 in 2009/10
Bristol B&NES SOUTH WEST ENGLAND
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
Championing Young People’s Learning

21. Level 3 at 19
65%
60%
55%
Percentage Attai nment
50%
45%
40%
35%
19 in 2004/05 19 in 2005/06 19 in 2006/07 19 in 2007/08 19 in 2008/09 19 in 2009/10
B&NES Swindon SOUTH WEST ENGLAND YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
Championing Young People’s Learning

22. FSM gap at 19, levels 2 & 3
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20% 19 in 2004/05
15% 19 in 2005/06
10% 19 in 2006/07
5% 19 in 2007/08
0%
19 in 2008/09
South West
South West
England
England
Cornwall
Cornwall
Gloucestershire
Gloucestershire
19 in 2009/10
Level 2 Level 3
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
Championing Young People’s Learning

23. Attainment by 19 of learners attending SW
schools at 15
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
No level 3 attained
5,000 Level 3 attained
-
English Neither English English or
and/or English and maths maths or
maths nor maths neither
No level 2 at 16 Level 2 at 16
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis Team
Championing Young People’s Learning