REV Partners Renewables and Solar India April 2013
1. Renewable Energy & Solar Energy Sector, India
Industry Research Report – Part I
Apr, 2013
This presentation is meant exclusively for the use of REV Partners Clients and Portfolio
Companies. Any use by external entities is under their own risk. No part of it may be
circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution without prior written approval from
REV Partners. This material was used by REV Partners during an oral presentation; it is
not a complete record of the discussion.
2. TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 Energy Industry Overview, India
2 Global Solar Industry
3 Solar Industry in India
2 CONFIDENTIAL
INCUBATION | INVESTMENTS | CONSULTING
3. High energy base but low per capita consumption implies
significant need to add capacity
While India is 5th in terms of installed capacity… …it lags behind in terms of per capita consumption
~16 GW power generation capacity required p.a. till 2020 to meet demand
(Estimates)
Source: Ministry Of New And Renewable Energy, India; EIA; CEA; Rev Partners Analysis
3 CONFIDENTIAL
INCUBATION | INVESTMENTS | CONSULTING
4. Installed base of ~212,000 MW; renewable sources
account for ~12%
States generate over 40% of power in India; Renewable Sources account for ~12% of the installed
total installed base of ~211,766 MW MW capacity
India is quickly developing into one of the Thermal
world’s most attractive markets for
Renewable Energy
Notes: Renewable Energy Sources (RES) include SHP (Small Hydro Project ), BG (Biomass Gasifier), BP (Biomass Power), U&I (Urban & Industrial Waste
Power) and Wind Energy
Source: Ministry Of New And Renewable Energy, Ministry of Energy; India; Rev Partners Analysis
4 CONFIDENTIAL
INCUBATION | INVESTMENTS | CONSULTING
5. Industry is the largest consumer of power in India (~39%),
followed by domestic consumption & Agriculture (~19%)
Others
Rail/Traction
Commercial
Domestic
Agriculture
Industry
Source: MOSPI, India; Rev Partners Analysis
5 CONFIDENTIAL
INCUBATION | INVESTMENTS | CONSULTING
6. All 4 major segments of renewable energy (Wind, Bio
Power, Small Hydro and Solar) have high growth potential
Wind accounts for ~70% of the installed base Total potential is estimated at over 200,000 MW
1 2 3 4
Several policy measures have helped in the rapid growth Solar potential at 30-50 MW per Sq. km.
of Renewable Energy deployment Strong Bio Power exists
Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM) Agro residues: 17,000 MW
Feed-in-Tariff Cogeneration Bagasse: 5,000 MW
Accelerated Depreciation (AD) Waste to Energy: ~4,000 MW
Generation Based Incentives (GBI)
Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPO)
Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) etc
Source: Ministry Of New And Renewable Energy, India; Rev Partners Analysis
6 CONFIDENTIAL
INCUBATION | INVESTMENTS | CONSULTING
7. 1 Wind Energy: ~3X growth potential exists
Significant Potential; 12th Plan aims to install
Large potential in several Indian States
additional 15,000 MW
11th Plan Target: 9,000 MW
11th Plan Achievement: 10,260 MW
Deployment target 12th Plan :15,000 MW
GBI scheme to be reviewed after 11th
Plan and continued for 12th Plan for
up to 4,000 MW capacity projects.
Well established technology up to 2.5
MW single turbine
250-2000 kW unit size being
manufactured and installed
Source: Ministry Of New And Renewable Energy, India; Rev Partners Analysis
7 CONFIDENTIAL
INCUBATION | INVESTMENTS | CONSULTING
8. 2 Small Hydro: ~6X growth potential
Significant Potential; 12th Plan aims to install
Large potential in several Indian States
additional 2,100 MW
11th Plan Target: 1,400 MW
11th Plan Achievement: 1,419 MW
Deployment target 12th Plan :2,1000 MW
Mature SHP technology with Equipment
efficiency > 85%.
Capacity Utilization Factor as high as 95%
Manufacturing capacity of over 1000 MW
Real time digital simulator set up at AHEC ,
IIT Roorkee; Model Turbine test and R &D
bench being set up at AHEC
Source: Ministry Of New And Renewable Energy, India; Rev Partners Analysis
SHP (Small Hydro Projects)
8 CONFIDENTIAL
INCUBATION | INVESTMENTS | CONSULTING
9. Biomass & Bagasse Cogeneration have ~7X growth
3
potential
Significant Potential; 12th Plan aims to install
Large potential in several Indian States
additional 1,900 MW
Biomass used in boilers to
Biomass
generate heat/ steam to drive
Combustion
turbine for generating electricity
Biomass Simultaneous production of heat /
Cogeneration steam and electricity
Conversion of woody and non-
11th Plan Target: 500 MW (Biomass) & 1200 MW Biomass woody biomass such as Rice husk,
(Bagasse Cogeneration) Gasification arhar stalks, cotton stalks, wood
11th Plan Achievement: 626 MW & 1369 MW chips etc. to producer gas
respectively
Deployment target 12th Plan :500 MW & 1400
MW respectively
Biomass: Promote small capacity biomass
projects
Promote BOOT/BOLT model in cooperative
sector sugar mills; Promote optimum
cogeneration potential in small size sugar
mills (<2500 TCD)
Source: Ministry Of New And Renewable Energy, India; Rev Partners Analysis
9 CONFIDENTIAL
INCUBATION | INVESTMENTS | CONSULTING
10. TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 Energy Industry Overview, India
2 Global Solar Industry
3 Solar Industry in India
10 CONFIDENTIAL
INCUBATION | INVESTMENTS | CONSULTING
11. Global Solar PV demand reached ~29 GW in 2012 and is
expected to reach ~45 GW by 2015
Global PV installations reached ~28 GW in 2012 Top 10 Players
1. Yingli Green Energy
2. First Solar
3. Suntech
4. Trina Solar
5. Canadian Solar
6. Sharp Solar
7. Jinko Solar
8. JA Solar
9. SunPower
10. Hanwha SolarOne
Source: IMS Research; NPD Solarbuzz, Jan 2013;
11 CONFIDENTIAL
INCUBATION | INVESTMENTS | CONSULTING
12. Europe accounts for ~57% global PV demand (India accounts
for ~2%)
Europe accounted for ~16 GW (of ~28 GW) Top PV Markets (2012) accounted for ~86% of global
global demand in 2012 demand
[100% = 28 GW, 2012]
Germany continues to be the largest Strong growth in China in 2012 (+70% yoy); China set to
market in Europe become the largest single-country market in the world in
Demand in Italy was 2nd largest in 2013
Europe; however market in Italy North America (US and Canada) grew >2X yoy
declined during 2012 Japan set to grow by 50% in 2013 to become the fourth
largest PV market in the world
Source: NPD Solarbuzz, Jan 2013;
12 CONFIDENTIAL
INCUBATION | INVESTMENTS | CONSULTING
13. TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 Energy Industry Overview, India
2 Global Solar Industry
3 Solar Industry in India
13 CONFIDENTIAL
INCUBATION | INVESTMENTS | CONSULTING
14. Solar: Over 100X potential in India; low installed base
Significant Potential; 12th Plan aims to install
High Solar Power Density in India
additional 1,900 MW
>100,000
MW
potential
@30-5-MW
per Sq km
Potential: 30-50 ME per sq. km.
11th Plan Target: 1100 MW
Deployment target 12th Plan :4000 MW
Target for 13th plan: 15,000 MW
SOLAR Mission High energy received (~4-7KWh/m2 of solar
20,000 MW grid by 2022 (state policies energy daily; 1600 to 2200 KWh/m2 p.a.)
extra); 2,000 MW off-grid by 2022 High frequency (~300-320 sunny days in a year)
20 million households covered by solar Rajasthan and Gujarat receive maximum radiation
lighting in the range of 6–6.6 KWh per square meter
20 m sq m of solar thermal
Low cumulative grid connected Installed solar
power capacity
Source: Ministry Of New And Renewable Energy, India; Rev Partners Analysis
14 CONFIDENTIAL
INCUBATION | INVESTMENTS | CONSULTING
15. India expected to have the 4th largest installed base of
solar power (~20-22 GW) by 2020
FiTs (FiTs) FiTs FiTs Production / REC FiTs
REC GBI for rooftop REC REC Investment Tax incentive REC
Tax incentive installed PV Tax incentive Capital Subsidy tax credit Tax incentive
Tax incentive
for PV
Notes: FiTs: =Feed-in-Tariffs; GBI = Generation Based Incentive ; REC: Renewable Energy Certificate
Source: Ministry Of New And Renewable Energy, India; Rev Partners Analysis
15 CONFIDENTIAL
INCUBATION | INVESTMENTS | CONSULTING
16. ~88% of the installed solar base is in two states (Gujarat
and Rajasthan); significant potential exists in other states
Source: Ministry Of New And Renewable Energy (Mar, 2013), India; Rev Partners Analysis
16 CONFIDENTIAL
INCUBATION | INVESTMENTS | CONSULTING
17. Gujarat : 75 projects worth ~824 MW implemented under
state policy; Adani project largest at ~40 MW
Source: Ministry Of New And Renewable Energy (Mar, 2013), India; Rev Partners Analysis
17 CONFIDENTIAL
INCUBATION | INVESTMENTS | CONSULTING
18. Rajasthan: 65 projects worth ~442 MW implemented
largely under JNNSM; Dahanu project largest at ~40 MW
Source: Ministry Of New And Renewable Energy (Mar, 2013), India; Rev Partners Analysis
18 CONFIDENTIAL
INCUBATION | INVESTMENTS | CONSULTING
19. Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM) defines
policies to increase Solar penetration
# Segment Phase-I Phase-II target Phase-III target
(2010 – 13) (2013-17) (2017-22)
1. Utility Grid Power including 1000 – 2000 MW 4000 – 10000MW 20000 MW
roof top & distribution grid
connected plants 100 MW
2. Off grid solar applications 200 MW 1000 MW 2000 MW
3. Solar Thermal Collectors 7 million m2 15 million m2 20 million m2
JNNSM is one of the eight National Missions laid out in India’s National Action Plan on Climate
Change (NAPCC)
Policies to incentivize :
Installation of 22,000 MW on and off-grid solar power by 2022
Focus on both PV and CSP technologies
Focus on solar appliances such as solar lighting, heating, and water pumps
Policies laid out to facilitate inter-state trade
Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO) and
Tradable ‘Renewable Energy Certificates (REC)
Source: JNNSM; Rev Partners Analysis
19 CONFIDENTIAL
INCUBATION | INVESTMENTS | CONSULTING