1. The French and European
aviation market
9th FrenchConnect – Disneyland® Paris
19 March 2012
Ralph Anker
Editor
anna.aero
ralph.anker@anna.aero

2. What’s coming up …
• Developments in Europe 2010-2012
• France:
– French airport traffic development in 2011
– Leading country markets and airlines in S12 v S11
– Domestic market 2000-2012
• Inter-regional route stimulation by LCCs
– New French routes 2011 analysed
– Air France’s regional “hubs”
– New French routes 2012 analysed
• Europe:
– Comparison of airport growth across Europe in 2011
– International country-pair and domestic capacity S12 v S11
– GDP forecasts
• Conclusions
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3. Developments in Europe 2010
• Lots of airlines made money despite rising fuel costs!
• Icelandic ash cloud caused problems in April
• Various countries affected by industrial action
– Airline strikes
– ATC strikes
– General strikes
• BA and Iberia merged to create IAG 
• Aegean and Olympic did not merge 
• No major airline failures
– Just a few niche carriers such as Athens Airways, Andalus Lineas
Aereas, Blue Wings, Hamburg International, Star1
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4. Developments in Europe 2011
• No major flight disruptions due to natural phenomena
– Some disruption due to industrial action
• Lufthansa decides to sell bmi; IAG close to deal?
• Germany and Austria introduced additional air taxes
• Flybe launches Nordic operations
• “Arab spring”: Social unrest in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain
• Europe’s ‘legacy’ airlines struggle for profits
– Major LCCs still making decent money
• Ryanair opens bases in Gran Canaria, Tenerife, Lanzarote
& Manchester
• Frankfurt opens third runway
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5. Developments in Europe 2012
• Aviation joins EU ETS in 2012
• Collapse of two significant European airlines in early 2012
– Malev (Hungary) & Spanair (Spain): who’s next?
• AirAsia X departs Europe, Hong Kong Airlines arrives
• Fuel prices remaining high – EU economy still struggling
• easyJet opens news bases in London Southend, Lisbon,
Nice and Toulouse
• Ryanair opens new bases in Billund, Budapest, Karlsruhe-
Baden, Palma de Mallorca and Paphos (‘50th’)
• First appearance of 787 in Europe (HND-FRA)
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8. Largest French Airports: LCC impact
Airport Pax:11 % vly LCC:11 LCC% LCC “growth”
1 Nice 10.42m +8.5% 3.43m 33% +16.6%
2 Lyon 8.44m +5.7% 1.76m 21% +20.0%
3 Marseille 7.36m -2.1% 1.39m 19% -19.9%
4 Toulouse 6.99m +9.1% 1.61m 23% +32.5%
5 Basel-Mulhouse 5.05m +22.4% 2.61m 52% +33.2%
6 Bordeaux 4.11m +12.4% 0.98m 24% +28.9%
7 Paris Beauvais 3.68m +25.4% 3.68m 100% +25.4%
8 Nantes 3.25m +7.1% 0.71m 22% +8.3%
9 Montpellier 1.31m +11.3% 0.38m 29% +37.6%
10 Ajaccio 1.18m +5.5% 0.12m 10% -1.0%
Source: www.aeroport.fr
Paris CDG 60.97m +4.8% 5.43m 9% +13.0%
Paris ORY 27.14m +7.7% 6.45m 24% +10.3%
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14. New French airport services
Started operating between 1 January and 31 December 2011
Airport Routes Airlines included
1 Marseille 25 Air Corsica, Air France, Blue1, Iberia, jet4you,
Ryanair, Transavia.com
2 Paris CDG 21 Aegean Airlines, Air France, Camair-Co, CSA
Czech Airlines, easyJet, Sunwing, Vueling
3 Toulouse 16 Alitalia, easyJet, jet4you, Turkish, Vueling
4= Nantes 10 Air France, Eastern, easyJet, jet4you,
Smartwings, Transavia.com, Vueling
4= Nice 10 bmi, Jet2.com, Norwegian, SAS, Smartwings,
Spanair, Swiss, Transavia.com, Vueling
4= Paris Beauvais 10 Blue Air, Ryanair, Wizz Air
7 Paris Orly 8 AirAsia X, British Airways, easyJet, Vueling
8= Bordeaux 7 CSA, jet4you, Ryanair, TAP, Vueling
8= Montpellier 7 Air Arabia Maroc, Air France, Ryanair, Transavia
10 Lyon 5 Armavia, Chalair, easyJet, jet4you
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15. New French airport routes
Started operating between 1 January and 31 December 2011
• Total of 156 (171) new routes involving 31 (36) French
airports and 43 (42) airlines (2010 figures for comparison)
• Leading airlines:
– Air France 31 new routes; average 5.0 weekly flights (155)
– Ryanair 24 new routes; average 2.9 weekly flights (70)
– Vueling 16 new routes; average 4.3 weekly flights (68)
– easyJet 10 new routes; average 6.5 weekly flights (65)
• Leading country markets (37 countries got new routes)
– France 22 new routes (11 routes double-counted)
– Italy 21 new routes
– UK 20 new routes
– Spain 17 new routes
– Morocco 14 new routes
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16. Air France’s regional hubs
Marseille Toulouse Nice
October 2011 April 2012 April 2012
Athens (4) Athens (4) Athens (3)
Basel (7) Berlin Tegel (4) Naples (2) v easyJet
Beirut (3) Casablanca (3) v RAM Tel Aviv (3) v Israir
Biarritz (2) Hamburg (5) Venice (3) v easyJet
Brest (7) v Ryanair Istanbul IST (3) v Turkish AL
Casablanca (4) v RAM Malaga (3) v Vueling
Copenhagen (2) Malta (2)
Dusseldorf (7) Marrakech (2) v RAM
Eindhoven (3) v Ryanair Naples (2)
Istanbul IST (4) Prague (5)
Moscow SVO (4) Seville (4) v Iberia
Milan MXP (14) v Ryanair (BGY) Tunis (4) v Tunisair
Prague (2) Venice (3) v easyJet, Vueling
Vienna (4)
March 2012
Barcelona (2) v Vueling
Hamburg (4) Not starting Not starting
Marrakech (3) v RAM, Ryanair Brussels v Brussels AL, easyJet Barcelona v easyJet, IB, Vueling
Venice (5) Geneva v easyJet Istanbul v Turkish AL
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17. New French airport services
Planned to start between 1 January and 31 December 2012
Airport Routes Airlines included
1 Toulouse 23 Air France (15), easyJet (7), Jet2.oom
2 Nice 21 Air France (4), British Airways, easyJet (7),
Jetairfly, Norwegian, SAS, Skywork, Swiss, Vueling
3 Marseille 14 Air France (5), Norwegian, Ryanair (7), Vueling
4= Paris CDG 10 10 different airlines!
4= Paris Orly 10 easyJet, Norwegian, Transavia.com, Vueling
6 Lyon 9 Air France, Camair-Co, easyJet, Lufthansa, Vueling
7 Nantes 8 Air France, easyJet, Vueling
8= Bordeaux 7 Air France, easyJet, Ryanair, Volotea, Vueling
8= Figari 7 Air Corsica, Air France, Skywork
8= Paris Beauvais 7 Ryanair, Wizz Air
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18. New French airport routes
Planned to start between 1 January and 31 December 2012
• Total of 167 (156) new routes involving 41 (31) French
airports and 30 (43) airlines (2011 figures for comparison)
• Leading airlines:
– Air France 55 new routes; average 2.1 weekly flights (116)
– Ryanair 25 new routes; average 3.4 weekly flights (84)
– easyJet 24 new routes; average 3.6 weekly flights (86)
– Vueling 17 new routes; average 3.5 weekly flights (59)
• Leading country markets (33 countries to get new routes)
– France 42 new routes (21 routes double-counted)
– Spain 22 new routes
– Italy 20 new routes
– UK 17 new routes
– Germany 9 new routes
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19. LCCs still growing in 2011
pax up 5.1% to 76.4 million
pax up 11.6% to 55.5 million
pax up 20.5% to 15.7 million
pax up 11.6% to 12.3 million
pax up 32.2% to 11.3 million
pax up 15.0% to 11.2 million
pax down 2.7% to 7.5 million
Top 7 European airlines in 2011 (by passengers):
1 – Ryanair (76.4m), 2 – Lufthansa (63.0m), 3 – easyJet (55.5m), 4 – Air
France (49.7m), 5 – airberlin (35.3m), 6 – British Airways (34.0m), 7 -
Turkish Airlines (31.5m)
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20. Comparison across Europe
Versus Germany, Italy, Spain and UK (2011)
Country Airport pax % vly >1m*
UK 222.3m +4.1% 21
Spain 204.4m +6.0% 24
Germany 199.2m +4.8% 18
France** 152.9m +6.6% 16
Italy 148.5m +6.4% 23
*Number of airports with more than 1 million annual passengers
**Includes Basle-Mulhouse (BSL) airport. Excluding BSL, Italy would now be ahead of France (147.9m)
Source: UK CAA, ADV, Aena, www.aeroport.fr, Assaeroporti
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22. Europe’s fastest growing /
shrinking airports in 2011
Airport growth Airport decline
Rimini (RMI) 66.8% Venice Treviso (TSF) -49.9%
Perugia (PEG) 58.5% Forli (FRL) -46.1%
Maastricht (MST) 40.7% Girona (GRO) -38.2%
Oulu (OUL) 39.1% Lübeck (LBC) -36.0%
Tallinn (TLL) 38.2% Newquay (NQY) -26.5%
Nador (NDR) 29.5% Glasgow Prestwick (PIK) -21.9%
Rovaniemi (RVN) 28.1% Bournemouth (BOH) -18.3%
Brindisi (BDS) 28.1% Pamplona (PNA) -18.2%
Gaziantep (GZT) 25.9% Kiruna (KRN) -17.8%
Paris Beauvais (BVA) 25.4% Alexandroupolis (AXD) -17.5%
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26. Conclusions
• Paris airports (BVA, CDG, ORY) account for only 25% of
new French routes (39/156) in 2011 down from 30% in
2010. In 2012 (so far) Paris airports account for less than
20% of new French routes (27/167).
• Capacity analysis indicates growth in Europe this summer
but GDP forecasts suggest flat/declining economy.
• Consistently high fuel prices (and worker relations?) will
challenge airline profitability in 2012.
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27. Thank you!
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28. Thank you!
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