Matt PhD Conference 2012

Public
Policy
&
Climate
Change
in
the

Asian
Century

Matt Spannagle
Climate Change Advisor, AusAID
Canberra, 27 November 2012

Contents

Public
policy
&
human
development

Key
public
policy
concepts

Mi7ga7on

Adapta7on

Ma:
Spannagle
has
been
the
Climate
Change
Advisor
for
AusAID
(the
Australian
Government’s
overseas
aid
program)
since
June
2011
where
his

role
is
to
provide
expert
input
on
climate
change
and
strategic
advice
to
AusAID’s
substan7al
and
expanding
programmes.

Prior
to
joining
AusAID,
Ma:
worked
in
UNDP
as
Senior
Technical
Advisor
for
a
global
programme
of
capacity
development
for
accessing
and

structuring
new
climate
finance,
par7cularly
carbon
finance;

in
Canada
on
the
design
and
implementa7on
of
the
Canadian
emission
trading

system,
with
par7cular
focus
on
the
project
based
offset
system
quan7fica7on
and
verifica7on
requirements.
Previously,
Ma:
worked
with
the

Australian
Greenhouse
Office,
where
he
managed
a
program
that
quan7fied
and
verified
reported
company
emissions,
and
voluntary
emission

reduc7ons
projects.

Ma:
has
a
Bachelor
of
Civil
Engineering,
and
completed
his
Masters
of
Environmental
Engineering
Science
by
research
on
climate
risks
to
large

infrastructure
projects
(par7cularly
dams)
before
working
in
construc7on
and
project
management
with
dams
and
water
infrastructure
for

private
companies
and
state
corpora7ons.

Public
policy
challenges
of
the
century…

1800s
–
public
health

water
supply,
sanita7on,
pest
control

1900s
–
armed
conﬂict

MAD,
UNSC(?),
ICC

2000s
–
….?

Now
2100
Committed
Warmer than at
any time since
we stood upright

Global
temperature
change

NASA data for 2010, 0.75oC above
1951-80 base period

Public
policy
objecEve:
Avoid
this…

2011:
Warmest
La
Nina
year,
11th
warmest
year

Fatalities > 1400;
> 1.3M effected (Unicef)

Public
Policy
objecEve:
Avoid
this…

Pakistan,
August
2010

Fatalities > 1400;
> 1.3M effected (Unicef)

Global
food
prices
spiked
recently
for
the
second
7me
in
three
years

(World
Bank)

Public policy …?
Australian
drought/lack
wheat export
Russian
heatwave, ban
wheat export
Oil > $130/
barrel

Century
of
climate
change
(sustainability)

Tragedy
of
the
commons
-‐

> 
global
problem:

lose-‐lose
or
win-‐win

> 
accoun7ng
for
externali7es

> 
BaU
of
markets
=
certain
failure

> 
serious
equity
considera7ons

Public
policy
intervenEon
required!

Australia’s
internaEonal
commitments

Kyoto
Protocol

2⁰C

$599M
to
global
fast-‐start
ﬁnancing

2010-‐13
(~$200M/year)

 52%
adapta7on

 Mi7ga7on:

  24%
Non-‐forest
mi7ga7on

  24%
REDD+/LULUCF

 ~
95%
of
FSF
allocated,
~
65%
disbursed

>  MiEgaEon
–
avoid
the
unmanagable

- Reduce
exis7ng
emissions

- Avoid
future
emissions

- Sequester
emissions

>  AdaptaEon
–
manage
the
unavoidable

- Maladapta7on

- Resistance

- Resilience

- Transforma7on

2.
Key
concepts

 
already
commi:ed
to
around
1.5
–
2⁰C

 2⁰C:
between
‘dangerous’
&‘manageable’

 low
probability
of
staying
below
2⁰C

 most
likely
3-‐4⁰C
by
2060-‐2070

 At
current
rate
>
4.5
⁰C
by
2100

(bleak)

Mitigation – “avoid the unmanagable”

The
StabilizaEon
Challenge

•  Long
response
lag
(50yrs+)
from
emirng
to
impacts

•  Key
objecEve
is
to
stabilize
CO2e
concentraEons

  Requires
global
emissions
below
natural
uptake
(15-‐20Gt)

  Currently
at
~
44Gt
and
by
2030
55Gt

  BaU
for
550ppm
by
2035

•  2050
populaEon
of
9
billion

….means
an
alloca7on
of
~2
tCO2e/capita
globally

  India
~
2t/capita

  China
6t

  EU
averages
12t

  USA,
Canada
and
Australia
~
25t

The
trillionth
tonne
–
why
acEon
is
urgent

Allen et al, Nature, 2009
Meinshausen et al, Nature, 2009
Solomon et al, PNAS, 2009
80
60
40
20
0
-20
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Year when
emissions peak
-2.0%
-3.6%
-6%
-12%
-22.6%
Required annual rate
of reduction to stay within
‘trillion tonnes’ budget
Emissionsrate:GigatonnesofCO2equivalent
•  We need to limit cumulative emissions of CO2 to
a total of one trillion tonnes of carbon (1 TtC) to stay within 2°C
warming (range: 1.6-2.6°C).
•  We’ve already spent half of our allowance since pre-industrial times,
so we have ~0.5 TtC left.
•  At our present rate of emissions growth we will
spend the rest by ~2035, when we’d have to stop all emissions
overnight to avoid exceeding 2°C.

MiEgaEon
OpEons

>  To
stabilise
concentra7ons
(at
550ppm
or
below)

before
2050
limits
the
mi7ga7on
op7ons
due
to

scale
up
and
technology
constraints

>  Poten7al
share
of
mi7ga7on
task
to
2050:

- Energy
eﬃciency
40-‐60%

- Renewables
(10-‐15%)

- Biosequestra7on
(inc
REDD)/Biofuels
(10-‐15%)

- Nuclear
(2-‐5%)

- CCS
(1-‐5%)

- Fossil
Fuel
switch
(5%)

- Agriculture
and
waste
(5-‐10%)

Conceivable
uptake without
major public policy
interventions

Mitigation can & should = development!
To avoid (further) dangerous climate
change we must address emissions in
developing countries without stifling
legitimate development goals…

Global approach to avoid 2⁰C
Or
‘green growth’ or ‘low emission development’ or ‘bending the curve’
2000 2010 2030 2050
Emissions(tCO2e)
Emissions (BaU)
Avoid
Emissions
Emissions (LEDS)

Reality
Or Project level implmentation; or ‘low emission development strategies’ or
‘Suppressed Demand’
Satisfied Service, high emissions (BaU)
Satisfied Service Level, low emissions
BaU:increasingwealth=increaseemissions
Current (unsatisfactory) Service Level
time
now
Avoid
Emissions
Emission Reductions

>  Energy
efficiency
:

-  Improved
cookstoves

-  EE
ligh7ng
including
off-‐grid

-  EE
applicances
(fridges,
mo7ve
power
etc)

-  Renewables

•  large
MW,
par7cularly
wind,
hydro
on
grid
(CSP,
Solar,
Geothermal,
9dal?)

•  Smaller
MW,
larger
numbers,
par7cularly
mini-‐hydro
&
solar
systems
for
off-‐grid

>  REDD+

>  Biofuels

-  Pelle7sed
fuels

-  Biogas
from
waste

>  Public
transport

>  Outside
the
box:

ICT,

Water
treatment
etc

What
things
might
deliver
miEgaEon
&
development?

Contested

2011:

> investment
in
renewables
increased
17%
to
US
$257

billion
(six
7mes
2004);

> solar
PV
module
prices
dropped
by
50%

> onshore
wind
turbines
by
nearly
10%.

Cause
for
opEmism!!
Public
policy
successes…

As development progresses, fewer people in
LICs & LDCs, more MICs…
…the developed/developing divide erodes

>  Aﬀoresta7on

>  Reforesta7on

>  Forest
Management

>  Increasing
carbon
in
the
landscape

(Silvopastoral?)

>  …algal
biofuels?

Public
policies
on
R&D?

Sequestering
carbon
–
net
reducEons

>  Antarc7c
ocean
iron
fer7lisa7on?

>  Sulphur
Dioxide
stratospheric
injec7on

>  Albedo
interven7ons

>  Geosta7onary
reﬂectors

Last
resort
of
climate
protecEon
(public)
policies

Adapta7on
examples:
Dealing
with
saltwater
intrusion

Lau Lagoon, Malaita Province, PNG

1. Rapid
mi7ga7on
now

2. development
&
diversiﬁca7on

3. Integrate
climate
in
investments

4. speciﬁc
Adapta7on
Ac7ons

Adaptation – “manage the unavoidable”

DARA
COUNTRY
(2010)

UNDP
Human
Development
Index*
(2011)

OVERALL
VULNERABILITY

> AFGHANISTAN

> ANGOLA

> BANGLADESH

> BELIZE

> BHUTAN

> BURKINA
FASO

> CHAD

> DJIBOUTI

> EQUATORIAL
GUINEA

> ERITREA

> ETHIOPIA

> GAMBIA

> GUINEA-‐BISSAU

> GUYANA

> HAITI

> HONDURAS

> INDIA

> KAZAKHSTAN

> KENYA

> KIRIBATI

-  Italicised
=
LDC

*
based
on
income,
educa9on,
life
expectancy

2. development & diversification
187 Congo, Democratic Republic of the 0.286
186 Niger 0.295
185 Burundi 0.316
184 Mozambique 0.322
183 Chad 0.328
182 Liberia 0.329
181 Burkina Faso 0.331
180 Sierra Leone 0.336
179 Central African Republic 0.340
178 Guinea 0.344
177 Eritrea 0.349
176 Guinea-Bissau 0.353
175 Mali 0.359
174 Ethiopia 0.363
173 Zimbabwe 0.376
172 Afghanistan 0.398
171 Malawi 0.400
170 Côte d'Ivoire 0.400
169 Sudan 0.408
168 Gambia 0.420

2011:
wekest
year
on
record
in
Qld

Fatalities = 22 (Qld police)
HDI: Rank = 2; value = 0.929

2011:
record
ﬂoods
in
Thailand

Fatalities > 500 (BBC);
HDI: Rank = 103; value = 0.682

>  educate
girls

>  Economic
development
and

diversiﬁca7on

>  Mobility
and
ﬂexibility

2. development & diversification

Design
for
changing
condi7ons

Investments
should
be
suitable
for
climate

condi7ons
throughout
their
design
lives…

A.  Hydrology

i.  Spillway
design

ii.  water
supply

iii.  Bridges/river
crossings

3. Integrate climate in investments

B.
Extreme
events

i.  Building
codes

ii.  Disaster
risk
reduc7on

integra7on
–
eg
-‐
Warning

systems
and
shelters


C.
Spa7al
planning
for
expanded
hazards

i.  Flood
plain
mapping
and

building
approvals

ii.  Water
catchment/runoﬀ

management
(cover)

iii.  SLR,
wave
run
up

management
(1m
+High

water)


Addressing
the
‘MDB
approach’

Integra7on
doesn’t
necessarily
cost
(much)

money

Project
cost
‘Climate
proof’
Design
includes
CC from
start
$$$
2010 20??

1. Rapid
mi7ga7on
now

2. development
&
diversiﬁca7on

3. Integrate
climate
in
investments

4. speciﬁc
AdaptaEon
AcEons


-  “…cycles
of
marginal
improvement
are
NOT
suﬃcient…”

-  Building
resilience
may
not
be
enough…

ResilienceVulnerability
Hazard

if
the
“unavoidable”
cannot
be
managed
using

approaches
and
knowledge
of
the
past…

reconsider assumptions

ResilienceVulnerability
Hazard
?Coping – reactive/
unplanned ~ Hardship,
suffering

1.
MaladaptaEon
–
current
climate

Rain fed corn farming in ASAL with
subsistence small holders
= viable smallholder plot

2.
Resistance
–
minor
climate
changes

Irrigated corn farming in ASAL with
subsistence small holders
= viable smallholder plot

3.
Resilience
–
signiﬁcant
changes

Shift to cassava farming & CA
= viable smallholder cassava

4.
TransformaEon
–
major
changes

Shift to pastoral/rangeland
= viable smallholder cassava
= viable pastoral

Then
consider:

1.  Maladapta7on

2.  Resistance

3.  Resilience

4.  Transforma7on

reconsider assumptions

transition

Key
concepts

CC
Impacts
Adaptive response
Autonomous coping
Resistance
Resilience Transformation
Autonomous
Resistance in new state
Timing?
Increasing
adapta9ve

capac9y

CHALLENGE
for PUBLIC
POLICY!!!

4
phases
of
adaptaEon
vary
over:

- Space

• 
not
all
must
change
(within
na7onal
context)

• some
remain
viable
when
others
change

and
reduce
resource
pressure

- 7me

• changes
should
be
proac7ve
and

managed
progressively,
rather
than

responsive

• transforma7on
too
early
likely
sub-‐op7mal

MaladaptaEon,
resistance,
resilience,
transformaEon

Inves7ng
in
resistance
and
resilience
now

makes
sense
ONLY
if
it
avoids:

- stranded
assets
(eg
irriga7on
system)

- Stranded
livelihoods
(eg
skills
in
farmers
not

pastoralists)

And
it
is
‘no
regrets’

CHALLENGE
for
PUBLIC
POLICY!!!

MaladaptaEon,
resistance,
resilience,
transformaEon

cannot
fund
all
projects,
therefore:

•  Ins7gate
interna7onal
&
na7onal
policies

and
programs
(scale-‐up)

•  Co-‐investors
–
host
governments,
private

sector,
donors,
CSOs
&
individuals
etc

(leverage)

•  Demonstra7on
eﬀect/persuasion
of
peers

(replicaEon)

Public policies making a difference: { X > Σ 1 n }

Knowledge
Management

-‐

share
lessons
–
mul7-‐direc7onal

making a difference { X > Σ 1 n }
Advocacy

DemonstraEon

Peer

persuasion

Directed

AcEon

Scale-‐up

Leverage

Replica7on
Hard

1. Sequence

1.  scien7ﬁc
basis/impacts

2.  plan
adapta7on
priori7es

3.  implement

2. Research
programs
(new
knowledge
-‐

new
applica7on,
nexus/systems)

3.  CCA
&
DRR
programming
coordina7on,

but…
need
to
align
CCA
with
development

trajectories

What Australia is doing on adaptation

Lessons
for
scale
up

1. Ownership
–
co
management

2. Livelihoods
–
beneﬁts
for
the
poor
NOW
to

ensure
sustainability

3. Local
solu7ons
in
broader
context

-  wave
walls
of
bamboo
locally
made

-  part
of
provincial
integrated
coastal

management
plan

Vietnam: Partner with Kien Giang province & GIZ

Dealing
with
rainfall
variability
and
saltwater
intrusion

Reef Islands, Temotu Province

Dealing
with
shoreline
erosion

Mangrove replanting at Buri, Ranongga, Western Province

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