Más contenido relacionado Similar a Multifamily Trends & Predictions from Axiometrics (20) Multifamily Trends & Predictions from Axiometrics3. • Leading Education Provider
• Apartment-Industry
Specific Training
• Vision Learning
Management System (LMS)
• www.gracehilllearning.com
4. Axiometrics Inc.
ApartmentData andAnalytics Provider
• TracksPropertiesMonthlyAcrossMoreThan
400U.S.MetropolitanStatisticalAreas(MSAs)
• CollectsAskingRents,Concessions,and
EffectiveRentsattheFloorPlanLevel;
OccupancyatPropertyLevel
• ReportsatProperty,CompSet,Submarket,MSA,andPortfolio Levels
• PropertiesTrackedFromPlanningthroughStabilization
• AlsoTracksStudentHousing
https://twitter.com/axiometrics
5. CURRENT MARKET TRENDS
• National Effective Rent Growth is Good, No Longer Great;
Occupancy Rates are Very Strong
• Key Economic Drivers – Job Growth Steady, New Deliveries
Increasing
• NorCal,TX, and CO areAmongTop Performing MSAs; DC
is Weakest of Major MSAs
• ClassARent Growth is Slowing
• TheThreat of Oversupply is the Hottest Topic
Source: Axiometrics Inc.
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
7. ANNUALEFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH
Source: Axiometrics Inc.
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Houston, TX Las Vegas, NV
Washington, DC National
WASHINGTON,DCWASONEOFTHESTRONGESTMSASEARLYINTHE
CYCLE,BUTITSGROWTHISNOWONEOFTHEWEAKESTINTHEU.S.;HOUSTON
RECENTLYPEAKED;LASVEGASISIMPROVING
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
8. U.S. JOB GAINAND GROWTH
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
-7,000
-5,000
-3,000
-1,000
1,000
3,000
5,000
1Q89
4Q89
3Q90
2Q91
1Q92
4Q92
3Q93
2Q94
1Q95
4Q95
3Q96
2Q97
1Q98
4Q98
3Q99
2Q00
1Q01
4Q01
3Q02
2Q03
1Q04
4Q04
3Q05
2Q06
1Q07
4Q07
3Q08
2Q09
1Q10
4Q10
3Q11
2Q12
1Q13
4Q13F
3Q14F
2Q15F
1Q16F
4Q16F
3Q17F
Job Gain ('000) Job Growth (%)
Sources: Axiometrics Inc., BLS
EXPECTJOBGAINTOPEAKIN2014AND2015DURINGTHISCYCLE
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
9. U.S.JOBANDRENTGROWTH
Eff. Rent Growth Job Growth
Sources: Axiometrics, BLS
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013F 2015F 2017F
Rent Growth Job Growth
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
10. HISTORICALJOBAND RENT GROWTH TRENDS BYMSA
Sources: Axiometrics Inc., BLS
Rent Growth Job Growth
Annual Eff Rent Growth Annual Job Growth
Rent Growth
Rent Growth Rent Growth
Job Growth
Job Growth Job Growth
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2Q96
2Q97
2Q98
2Q99
2Q00
2Q01
2Q02
2Q03
2Q04
2Q05
2Q06
2Q07
2Q08
2Q09
2Q10
2Q11
2Q12
May-13Los Angeles
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
2Q96
2Q97
2Q98
2Q99
2Q00
2Q01
2Q02
2Q03
2Q04
2Q05
2Q06
2Q07
2Q08
2Q09
2Q10
2Q11
2Q12
May-13
Atlanta
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
2Q96
2Q97
2Q98
2Q99
2Q00
2Q01
2Q02
2Q03
2Q04
2Q05
2Q06
2Q07
2Q08
2Q09
2Q10
2Q11
2Q12
May-13
Dallas
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2Q96
2Q97
2Q98
2Q99
2Q00
2Q01
2Q02
2Q03
2Q04
2Q05
2Q06
2Q07
2Q08
2Q09
2Q10
2Q11
2Q12
May-13
Washington, DC
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
11. TEXAS HAS FOUR OFTHE TOP13 (AUSTIN)
Source: BLS
*Absolute job growth in thousands..
Annual Absolute Change* Annual Relative Change
Rank MSA Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13
1 Houston, TX 63.6 85.8 111.2 2.5% 3.3% 4.2%
2 New York, NY 94.6 79.3 98.6 1.8% 1.5% 1.9%
3 Los Angeles, CA 11.3 57.7 76.5 0.3% 1.5% 2.0%
4 Dallas, TX 50.7 51 67.7 2.5% 2.5% 3.2%
5 Atlanta, GA 41.6 36.8 48.2 1.8% 1.6% 2.1%
6 Boston, MA 31.7 27.5 47.3 1.3% 1.1% 1.9%
7 Chicago, IL 48.9 46.5 47.3 1.4% 1.3% 1.3%
8 Phoenix, AZ 22.4 33.3 42.8 1.3% 1.9% 2.4%
9 Fort Worth, TX 23.2 23.2 37.2 2.8% 2.7% 4.2%
10 Tampa, FL 20.5 26.5 35.4 1.8% 2.3% 3.1%
National 1,509 2,121 2,094 1.2% 1.6% 1.6%
ABSOLUTE JOB GROWTH BYMSA
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
12. MULTIFAMILYPERMITTINGHASBEENSTEADILYINCREASINGSINCETHEBEGINNING
OF2010;TOTALUNITSPERMITTEDISSTILLLESSTHANHALFOFWHATITWASIN
2005WHENITEXCEEDED2MILLIONUNITS
Source: Census
Permitting numbers represent the trailing 12-month total.
Units Permitted
Single-family Multifamily Total Residential
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
NATIONALRESIDENTIALPERMITTINGTRENDS
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
13. RESIDENTIALPERMITTING BREAKDOWN BYMSA
Source: Census
Permitting numbers represent the trailing 12-month total.
Units Permitted
Units Permitted
Units Permitted
Units Permitted
Single-family Multifamily Total Residential
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Atlanta
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Dallas
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Charlotte
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Washington, DC
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
14. STRONGEST MSAS FOR RENT GROWTH FOR MAY 2013
Results are only displayed for MSAs where Axiometrics tracks 10 or more properties.
Source: Axiometrics Inc.
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
15. WEAKEST MSAS FOR RENT GROWTH FOR MAY 2013
Results are only displayed for MSAs where Axiometrics tracks 10 or more properties.
Source: Axiometrics Inc.
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
16. ANNUAL EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH BY MSA FOR MAY 2013
Results are only displayed for MSAs where Axiometrics tracks 10 or more properties.
Source: Axiometrics Inc.
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
17. MSAS WITH OCCUPANCY RATES ABOVE 95% FOR MAY 2013
Results are only displayed for MSAs where Axiometrics tracks 10 or more properties.
Source: Axiometrics Inc.
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
18. MSAS WITH OCCUPANCY RATES BELOW 92% FOR MAY 2013
Results are only displayed for MSAs where Axiometrics tracks 10 or more properties.
Source: Axiometrics Inc.
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
19. OCCUPANCY RATE BY MSA FOR MAY 2013
Results are only displayed for MSAs where Axiometrics tracks 10 or more properties.
Source: Axiometrics Inc.
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
20. THE TOP11 MSAS FOR EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH
Source: Axiometrics, Inc.
Rank is based on May 2013 annual effective rent growth compared to the top 88 MSAs.
Annual Eff Rent Growth Occupancy Rate
Rank MSA May-11 May-12 May-13 May-11 May-12 May-13
1 Oakland, CA 7.6% 5.9% 10.1% 96.1% 95.8% 96.4%
2 Boulder, CO 9.2% 5.3% 10.0% 95.8% 95.3% 95.7%
3 Corpus Christi, TX 2.7% 5.5% 8.9% 94.6% 95.4% 95.6%
4 Palm Bay, FL 2.2% 0.1% 8.4% 90.1% 92.2% 94.9%
5 Cape Coral, FL 8.6% 4.0% 8.4% 93.3% 94.2% 94.7%
6 San Jose, CA 13.7% 8.3% 7.4% 97.4% 96.6% 96.4%
7 San Francisco, CA 10.2% 14.9% 7.3% 96.0% 96.2% 95.9%
8 Denver, CO 6.8% 7.2% 6.9% 95.3% 95.1% 95.6%
9 North Port, FL 5.0% 4.9% 6.8% 95.6% 96.1% 95.1%
10 Houston, TX 4.3% 6.1% 6.0% 91.1% 93.1% 94.4%
11 Seattle, WA 8.7% 5.3% 5.8% 95.7% 95.4% 96.0%
National 5.0% 4.1% 3.3% 94.0% 94.3% 94.8%
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
21. CURRENT PERFORMANCE OFOTHER MSAS
Source: Axiometrics, Inc.
Rank is based on May 2013 annual effective rent growth compared to the top 88 MSAs.
Annual Eff Rent Growth Occupancy Rate
Rank MSA May-11 May-12 May-13 May-11 May-12 May-13
15 Miami, FL 4.4% 5.7% 4.5% 95.8% 96.5% 96.3%
16 Austin, TX 9.4% 6.5% 4.4% 95.1% 95.1% 95.3%
19 Charlotte, NC 6.3% 7.4% 4.2% 93.9% 94.8% 95.0%
22 Dallas, TX 6.8% 5.7% 4.0% 93.7% 94.4% 95.0%
23 Atlanta, GA 4.4% 3.3% 4.0% 91.4% 91.9% 93.3%
36 Los Angeles, CA 2.0% 4.4% 3.4% 94.7% 95.1% 95.0%
39 Boston, MA 7.9% 7.0% 3.4% 96.6% 96.0% 96.3%
51 San Diego, CA 2.3% 2.3% 3.2% 95.6% 95.2% 96.0%
62 Las Vegas, NV -1.3% -1.0% 1.0% 92.1% 92.1% 92.5%
79 Washington, DC 5.7% 3.1% 0.4% 95.7% 95.4% 95.1%
National 5.0% 4.1% 3.3% 94.0% 94.3% 94.8%
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
23. NATIONALASSET CLASS PERFORMANCE
Source: Axiometrics Inc.
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
Dec09
Feb10
Apr10
Jun10
Aug10
Oct10
Dec10
Feb11
Apr11
Jun11
Aug11
Oct11
Dec11
Feb12
Apr12
Jun12
Aug12
Oct12
Dec12
Feb13
Apr13
Occupancy Rate
A
B
C
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Dec10
Feb11
Apr11
Jun11
Aug11
Oct11
Dec11
Feb12
Apr12
Jun12
Aug12
Oct12
Dec12
Feb13
Apr13
Effective Rent
A
B
C
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Dec09
Mar10
Jun10
Sep10
Dec10
Mar11
Jun11
Sep11
Dec11
Mar12
Jun12
Sep12
Dec12
Mar13
Concession Value
A
B
C
Days of Free Rent
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
Dec10
Feb11
Apr11
Jun11
Aug11
Oct11
Dec11
Feb12
Apr12
Jun12
Aug12
Oct12
Dec12
Feb13
Apr13
Occupancy Growth
A
B
C
CLASSAPROPERTIESWERELEADERSEARLYINTHERECOVERY,BUT
CLASSCPROPERTIESCURRENTLYHAVETHEBESTGROWTH
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
24. ANNUALEFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH BYASSET CLASS
Source: Axiometrics Inc.
A
B
C
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Dec10
Feb11
Apr11
Jun11
Aug11
Oct11
Dec11
Feb12
Apr12
Jun12
Aug12
Oct12
Dec12
Feb13
Apr13
Atlanta
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Dec10
Feb11
Apr11
Jun11
Aug11
Oct11
Dec11
Feb12
Apr12
Jun12
Aug12
Oct12
Dec12
Feb13
Apr13
Austin
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Dec10
Feb11
Apr11
Jun11
Aug11
Oct11
Dec11
Feb12
Apr12
Jun12
Aug12
Oct12
Dec12
Feb13
Apr13Baltimore
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Dec10
Feb11
Apr11
Jun11
Aug11
Oct11
Dec11
Feb12
Apr12
Jun12
Aug12
Oct12
Dec12
Feb13
Apr13
Charlotte
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
25. ANNUALEFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH BYASSET CLASS
Source: Axiometrics Inc.
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Dec10
Feb11
Apr11
Jun11
Aug11
Oct11
Dec11
Feb12
Apr12
Jun12
Aug12
Oct12
Dec12
Feb13
Apr13
Dallas
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Dec10
Feb11
Apr11
Jun11
Aug11
Oct11
Dec11
Feb12
Apr12
Jun12
Aug12
Oct12
Dec12
Feb13
Apr13
Denver
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Dec10
Feb11
Apr11
Jun11
Aug11
Oct11
Dec11
Feb12
Apr12
Jun12
Aug12
Oct12
Dec12
Feb13
Apr13Houston
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Dec10
Feb11
Apr11
Jun11
Aug11
Oct11
Dec11
Feb12
Apr12
Jun12
Aug12
Oct12
Dec12
Feb13
Apr13
Los Angeles
A
B
C
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
26. ANNUALEFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH BYASSET CLASS
Source: Axiometrics Inc.
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Dec10
Feb11
Apr11
Jun11
Aug11
Oct11
Dec11
Feb12
Apr12
Jun12
Aug12
Oct12
Dec12
Feb13
Apr13
New York
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Dec10
Feb11
Apr11
Jun11
Aug11
Oct11
Dec11
Feb12
Apr12
Jun12
Aug12
Oct12
Dec12
Feb13
Apr13
Raleigh
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Dec10
Feb11
Apr11
Jun11
Aug11
Oct11
Dec11
Feb12
Apr12
Jun12
Aug12
Oct12
Dec12
Feb13
Apr13
Washington, DC
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Dec10
Feb11
Apr11
Jun11
Aug11
Oct11
Dec11
Feb12
Apr12
Jun12
Aug12
Oct12
Dec12
Feb13
Apr13Seattle
A
B
C
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
28. WHAT ISOVERSUPPLY? DEFINITIONS FROM THE WEB
Merriam-Webster
“Thestateoraninstanceofgoingbeyondwhatisusual,proper,orneeded.”
Investopedia
“Anexcessiveamountofagoodorothersubstance.Oversupplyresultswhen
demandislowerthansupply,thusresultinginasurplus.”
“Therearemanyreasonswhyoversupplymayoccur.Ifthereisdemandfora
specificproductthatmeetsacertainneed,thenthatproductmightbecome
oversuppliedifanewandimprovedproductisintroducedthatmakesthe
olderproductobsolete.Oversupplycanalsooccurinsituationswherethe
priceofthegoodorserviceistoohigh,oraboveequilibrium.”
Sources: www.Merriam-Webster.com; www.Investopedia.com
30. LEASE-UP AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION UNITS
SHADING REPRESENTS % LEASE-UP AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION UNITS WHEN COMPARED TO EXISTING
STOCK BY STATE
Not all units under construction have begun to deliver.
The chart is based on data as of May 2013.
Sources: Axiometrics Inc., Census
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
31. PLANNED UNITS
SHADING REPRESENTS % OF PLANNED UNITS WHEN COMPARED TO EXISTING STOCK BY STATE.
Not all planned properties will reach the construction stage.
The chart is based on data as of May 2013.
Sources: Axiometrics Inc., Census
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
36. EXPECTSUPPLYTOPEAKDURING2014INTHISCYCLE
Sources: Axiometrics Inc., Census
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013F 2015F 2017F
New Supply Inv Growth
Why would construction activity slow?
-Construction costs rising quickly
-Effective rent growth slowing, especially with Class A
-Already concerns of oversupply in urban core of some
MSAs; More construction is needed in the suburbs to
maintain elevated construction totals
U.S. NEW SUPPLYAND INVENTORYGROWTH
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
37. APARTMENT UNITS STARTED NATIONALLY
Source: Axiometrics Inc.
The pace of new starts increased
rapidly in 2011 and early 2012, but it
began to level-off in the summer of
2012.
These statistics are based on
conventional apartment properties
tracked in Axiometrics’ pipeline
database.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Monthly Starts
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Trailing 3 Month-Starts
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Trailing 12 Month-Starts
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
38. APARTMENT UNITS STARTED BYMSA
(SUMOFTHETRAILING12-MONTH)
Source: Axiometrics Inc.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Washington, DC
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Dallas
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Houston
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Seattle
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
39. TOP 10 MSAS FORAPARTMENT CONSTRUCTION
*Delivery schedule is only based on identified properties that have started construction. The 2014 total will be higher as planned properties
begin construction.
**Not all planned properties will reach the construction stage.
Note: The delivery schedule is dynamic and changes as construction timelines change on individual properties. The chart is based on data
as of June 2013.
Source: Axiometrics Inc.
Deliveries By Year
MSA Total UC 2012 2013 2014* Planned**
Washington, DC 21,756 6,209 11,509 13,077 106,415
Dallas, TX 14,110 5,882 10,514 6,235 30,068
Houston, TX 15,403 4,522 8,632 6,983 15,199
New York, NY 21,483 4,147 8,198 6,629 51,255
Seattle, WA 10,421 2,821 7,419 5,901 40,098
Austin, TX 10,528 2,763 7,058 6,409 26,567
Atlanta, GA 7,100 1,537 5,207 3,749 26,118
Denver, CO 8,239 2,242 5,100 5,488 20,934
Los Angeles, CA 10,403 781 5,038 7,042 25,800
Raleigh, NC 5,815 688 4,993 3,309 10,016
National 382,587 87,205 185,063 145,523 1,040,329
MORETHANONE-FOURTH OFTHENATION’S 2013DELIVERIES
WILLBEINDC,DALLAS,NY,HOUSTON,SEATTLE,ANDAUSTIN
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
40. WHICHMSASAREATRISKFOROVERSUPPLYIN2013?
Sources: Axiometrics Inc., BLS
April 2013 Job Growth/2013 FY Identified Deliveries
May2013RevenueGrowth
ATL
AUS
BAL
BOS
CHAR
CHI
DAL
DEN
FOT
FTW
HOU
JAC
LA
MIA
NASH
NY
OAK
ORL
PHIL
PHO
PORT
RAL RICH
SDG
SFR
SJO
SANA
SEA
TMP
WASH-DC
WPB
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0
Above U.S. average revenue growth
and more than 6 jobs for each new
unit delivered
Risk of slowing revenue
growth if job growth
does not improve
Supply exceeds demand
Potential for improved revenue growth
because demand is outpacing supply
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
41. TOP10 SUBMARKETS FOR DELIVERIES IN2013
Source: Axiometrics Inc.
*Delivery schedule is only based on identified properties that have started construction. The 2014 total will be higher as planned properties
begin construction.
**Not all planned properties will reach the construction stage.
Note: The delivery schedule is dynamic and changes as construction timelines change on individual properties. The chart is based on data
as of June 2013.
Deliveries by Year
MSA Submarket 2012 2013 2014+* Planned**
Houston, TX Montrose/River Oaks 260 3,952 4,757 4,283
Seattle, WA Downtown/Capitol Hill/Queen Anne 1,396 3,493 2,677 18,307
San Jose, CA Northeast San Jose 994 2,435 959 8,131
San Antonio, TX Bexar County/Other 875 2,127 714 2,049
Baltimore, MD Central Baltimore City 397 2,010 691 10,564
Atlanta, GA Atlanta/Fulton 103 1,965 2,839 8,044
Chicago, IL Gold Coast/River North 406 1,904 698 4,499
Minneapolis, MN Minneapolis 594 1,865 1,598 4,813
Dallas, TX Plano/Allen/McKinney 1,269 1,845 902 3,118
Dallas, TX North Irving 570 1,733 526 3,716
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
42. CURRENTPERFORMANCEFORLEASE-UPPROEPRTIES
*Average absorption per property March 2013 – May 2013
Source: Axiometrics Inc.
Current Lease Ups
Existing
Product
MSA Submarket Props Units Abs* Erent PSF Erent PSF
HOU Montrose/River Oaks 9 1,583 23 $1,742 $1.91 $1,634 $1.67
SEA Downtown/Capitol Hill/Queen Anne 12 2,407 28 $2,068 $2.95 $1,797 $2.33
SJO Northeast San Jose 5 1,963 32 $2,501 $2.85 $2,185 $2.39
SAZ Bexar County 6 2,259 21 $1,302 $1.35 $1,065 $1.06
BAL Central Baltimore City 5 1,441 13 $2,126 $2.31 $1,525 $1.75
ATL Atlanta/Fulton 4 1,237 24 $1,724 $1.97 $1,177 $1.22
CHI Gold Coast/River North 4 1,658 27 $3,051 $3.18 $2,163 $2.65
MINN Minneapolis 8 1,516 12 $1,906 $2.22 $1,502 $1.75
DAL Plano/Allen/McKinney 5 1,527 25 $1,227 $1.35 $1,006 $1.07
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
43. U.S.METROSFORECAST:2013JOBGROWTHANDRENTALREVENUE
Sources: Axiometrics Inc., BLS
2013 Revenue Growth
2013 Job Growth
JG Rate > U.S.
Rev Growth > U.S.
ATL
AUS
BAL
BOS
CHAR
CHI
DAL
DEN
HOU
LSV
LA
MIA
MINN
NASH
NY
OAK
ORL
PHO
RAL
RIV
SDG
SFR
SJO
SANA
SEA
TMP
WASH-DC
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
©2013 AXIOMETRICS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
44. Disclaimer Notice
Disclaimer Notice.
All advice, consultations, queries, data and reports (collectively referred to as
the “Reports”) provided herein are prepared from data believed reliable
without verification or investigation and are not guaranteed or warranted by
AXIOMETRICS INC., its directors, officers, employees, and contractors and
do not purport to be complete or error free or useful for any purpose. The
facts and opinions contained herein are not guaranteed or warranted to be
complete or error free or useful for any purpose. The opinions expressed in
such information are subject to change without notice. AXIOMETRICS, its
directors, officers, employees, and contractors assume no liability for or from
its advice, consultations, queries, and reports provided HEREIN. Please use
such information at your own risk. This material is the property of
Axiometrics, Inc. and may not be reproduced, copied, or otherwise
distributed without the explicit written consent of Axiometrics, Inc.