The Data Journalism Group from Appinions sheds light on the Oscar race for Best Picture, Best Actor and Best Actress through the lens of the movie industry's top influencers.

1. OSCAR PREDICTIONS
THE INFLUENCERS' PERSPECTIVE
Influential critics agree: Argo will win Oscar despite
Affleck’s Best Director nomination snub
“After today’s British Academy Awards show which
Top 20 Critics NIS* Description
just wrapped in London, people would be wise to
Pete Hammond 139 Deadline.com put some pounds on Argo’s Best Picture
Oscar chances.”
Glen Levy 108 Time
Nikki Finke 107 Deadline.com
“When Jackson announced that Ben Affleck’s Argo
Frank DiGiacomo 106 Movieline.com
had won, it continued the movie’s seemingly
Anthony Breznican 105 Entertainment Weekly unstoppable march toward Oscar glory on Feb. 24.”
Tom O’Neil 103 Goldderby.com
Mike Fleming Jr. 89 Deadline.com “So Argo’s win on Saturday night is the strongest
Grady Smith 86 Entertainment Weekly indicator yet that the rescue thriller is the
frontrunner in the most fiercely competitive
Jen Yamato 82 Movieline.com Academy Awards race in recent memory.”
Sasha Stone 79 Awards Daily
Alex Maidy 78 JoBlo's Movie Emporium “People disengaged from Zero Dark Thirty and
Vince Mancini 76 Film Drunk embraced Argo.”
Matt Goldberg 70 Collider
Gregory Wakeman 66 The Inquisitr “Argo may have had a good night at the Globes
by winning Best Picture (Drama) and Best Director,
Nick Roman 65 Rickey.org but I still think Lincoln is the picture to beat when it
Brad Brevet 60 Rope of Silicon comes to the Academy Awards, especially since
Adam Chitwood 55 Collider Ben Affleck was snubbed for the Best Director
Oscar nomination.”
Roger Ebert 52 Awards Daily
Conor Gaughan 51 Farsite
Sheri Young 49 I Need My Fix Prediction Argo Lincoln N/A
“No film has won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination
since Driving Miss Daisy 23 years ago – and that was an
aberration even then.” – Pete Hammond, Deadline.com
Argo builds up momentum during the
award season
Average
Average Sentiment Score*: Argoties with Lincoln in influence
Argo 0.72 vs. Lincoln 0.68 Sentiment
Score**
0.68
Normalized Net Influence Score*
0.72
0.52
Sentiment score favors Argo
0.58
Golden
Globe
Directors Oscar
Oscars SAG
Guild Awards Voting
Nomination Award
Ends
Critics’ BAFTA
Choice Award Awards
*Net Influence Score (NIS) is a measure of a person’s influence in the context of a certain topic
** Sentiment Score: Appinions analyzes opinion sentiment and assigns a score between 0 to 1. 0 is highly negative, 0.5 is neutral and 1 is highly positive
While Argo and Lincoln both have strong influence,
Argo’s higher sentiment score may contribute to its win

2. ACTRESSES SPICE UP THE
RACE
Best Actress category rises in influence
as the Oscars approach
Strong performance of Lincoln and Daniel Best Actress race now
Day-Lewis creates hype for Best Actor the one to watch
Normalized Net Influence Score*
100%
90%
80%
Best Actress category gains more
70% momentum after each award
60%
Golden Oscar
Globe Voting Ends
50%
SAG Directors
40% Award Guild Awards
30% Oscars Critics’ BAFTA
Nomination Choice Award Awards
20%
1/1 1/8 1/15 1/22 1/29 2/5 2/12 2/19
Best Actor Best Actress
Daniel Day-Lewis has strongest influence
amongst Best Actors
Normalized Net Influence Score*
100%
90%
80%
70%
Daniel Day-Lewis has
60%
Best Actor in lock
50%
40%
1/1 1/8 1/15 1/22 1/29 2/5 2/12 2/19
Daniel Day Lewis Bradley Cooper Denzel Washington
Hugh Jackman Joaquin Phoenix
Jennifer Lawrence’s surprise win at SAG awards
boost her influence as Oscars near
Normalized Net Influence Score*
100%
90%
80% SAG
Award
70%
60% Jennifer Lawrence gains momentum
after winning SAG award
50%
40%
30%
1/1 1/8 1/15 1/22 1/29 2/5 2/12 2/19
Jennifer Lawrence Naomi Watts Jessica Chastain
Quvenzhan Wallis Emmanuelle Riva
*Net Influence Score (NIS) is a measure of a person’s influence in the context of a certain topic
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