I, Paul the Octopus

Iʼm VERY good with prediction

We want result!!
Your headlines aren’t
converting!!!

Split testing is
too slow

It’s time to play
god

Split testing is
too slow

It’s time to play
god
I will have to
predict the
FUTURE

Predict the conversion rate with
Google Prediction API

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headlines.txt
"high", "They Laughed When I Sat Down at The Piano - But When I Started to Play!"
"low", "Give Black What They Deserve"
"high", "Profits That Lie Hidden In Your Farm"
"high", "How I Made a Fortune With a Fool Idea"
"high", "Thousands Have This Priceless Gift - but Never Discover It!"
"low", "Do You Do Any Of These Embarrassing Things?"
"high", "Six Types of Investors - Which Group Are You In?"
"high", "Does Your Child Ever Embarrass You?"
"low", "To People Who Want To Write - but Can't Get Started"
"high", "The Crimes We Commit Against Our Stomachs"
"high", "How to Do Wonders with a Little Land!"
"high", """"Here's an Extra $50, Grace""""
"high", "A Wonderful Two Years Trip at Full Pay - but only men with imagination can t
"low", "A $10,000 Mistake!"
"low", "The Greatest reason in The World"
"high", "The Man in the Hathaway Shirt"
"high", "Dare To Be Rich!"
"high", "How To Rob Banks Legally"
"high", "A Startling Fact About Money"
"low", "How To Discover What You Are Really Good At"
"high", "How To Write a Business Letter?"
"high", "The Secrets of Making People Like You"
"high", "Advice to Wives Whose Husbands Don't Save Money"
"high", "How a New Discovery Made a Plain Girl Beautiful"
"low", "How to Win Friends and Influence People"
"high", "How to Swim with The Sharks without Being Eaten Alive"

$ java -cp oacurl-1.2.0.jar com.google.oacurl.Login --scope
https://www.googleapis.com/auth/prediction

$ gsutil cp ./headlines.txt gs://mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines

$ ./oauth-train.sh mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines
{
"kind": "prediction#training",
"id": "mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines",
"selfLink": "https://www.googleapis.com/prediction/v1.2/training/mindvalley/
prediction_models/headlines"
}

#!/bin/bash
# Train a prediction model.
# Usage: oauth-train.sh MODEL_NAME

ID=$1
KEY=`cat googlekey`

post_data="{"id":"$ID"}"

# Train the model.
java -cp ./oacurl-1.2.0.jar com.google.oacurl.Fetch -X POST
-t JSON
"https://www.googleapis.com/prediction/v1.3/training?key=$KEY" <<< $post_data
echo

#!/bin/bash
# Train a prediction model.
# Usage: oauth-train.sh MODEL_NAME

ID=$1
KEY=`cat googlekey`

post_data="{"id":"mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines"}"

# Train the model.
java -cp ./oacurl-1.2.0.jar com.google.oacurl.Fetch -X POST
-t JSON
"https://www.googleapis.com/prediction/v1.3/training?key=$KEY" <<< $post_data
echo

$ ./oauth-check-training.sh mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines
{
prediction_models/headlines",
"modelInfo": {
"modelType": "classification",
"classificationAccuracy": 0.95
},
"trainingStatus": "DONE"
}

$ ./oauth-check-training.sh mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines
{
prediction_models/headlines",
"modelInfo": {
"modelType": "regression",
"classificationAccuracy": 0.95
},
"trainingStatus": "DONE"
}

0,"They Laughed When I Sat Down at The Piano - But When I Started to Play!"
20,"Give Black What They Deserve"
45,"How I Made a Fortune With a Fool Idea"
67,"How to Swim with The Sharks without Being Eaten Alive"

$ ./oauth-predict.sh mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines ""Be awesome like
Wu Han""
{
"kind": "prediction#output",
prediction_models/headlines/predict",
"outputLabel": "low",
"outputMulti": [
{
"label": "high",
"score": 0.334130
},
{
"label": "low",
"score": 0.418339
}
]
}

I’m a happy man

@arzumy

I’m a happy man

@arzumy

http://bnorpr.gv.my

12th - 13th October 2011 http://hitb.org/hackweekday

I, Paul the Octopus

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