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C U S H M A N & WA K E F I E L D R E S E A R C H

M A IN S T REET S
AC RO S S T HE WOR LD
2011
MAIN STREETS ACROSS THE WORLD 2011



INTRODUCTION                                                           GLOBAL PROPERTY OVERVIEW    2
                                                                       MOST EXPENSIVE LOCATIONS    3
Cushman & Wakefield is committed to providing an excellent              GLOBAL RENTAL PERFORMANCE   5
service to their retail clients through the continuous monitoring      EUROPE OVERVIEW             6
of retail trends and practices. This edition of Main Streets Across           Austria              7
                                                                              Belgium              7
The World provides a detailed analysis of retail property rental              Bulgaria             7
performance across the globe in the twelve months to June 2011.               Channel Islands      7
                                                                              Czech Republic       7
                                                                              Denmark              7
The information and data provided in this report are based on a               Finland              7
comprehensive survey of Cushman & Wakefield’s international                    France               7
offices and the editors are extremely grateful to them for their time,          Germany              7
                                                                              Greece               7
effort and assistance.                                                         Hungary              8
                                                                              Ireland              8
Our international representation is designed to facilitate the                Italy                8
                                                                              Luxembourg           8
rapid flow of information across borders and is supported by                   The Netherlands      8
a comprehensive database of market information and regular                    Norway               8
liaison meetings. This allows for the exchange of local market                Poland               8
                                                                              Portugal             8
knowledge and expertise, and for the co-ordination of strategy for            Romania              8
international investment and locational decision-making.                      Russia               8
                                                                              Slovakia             9
                                                                              Spain                9
Information on the markets has been provided by                               Sweden               9
Cushman & Wakefield and its alliance partner listed in the table               Switzerland          9
below:                                                                        Turkey               9
                                                                              UK                   9
                                                                              Ukraine              9
 AUSTRIA                   Inter-Pool                                  AMERICAS OVERVIEW           10
                                                                              Argentina            11
 BULGARIA                  Forton International
                                                                              Brazil               11
 CHANNEL ISLANDS           Buckley & Co                                       Canada               11
                                                                              Chile                11
 CHILE                     Contempora Servicios Inmobiliarios                 Colombia             11
 COLOMBIA                  Fonnegra Gerlein                                   Ecuador              11
                                                                              Mexico               11
 DENMARK                   RED – Property Advisers                            Peru                 11
                                                                              USA                  11
 FINLAND                   Tuloskiinteistöt                                   Venezuela            11
 GREECE                    Proprius SA                                 ASIA PACIFIC OVERVIEW       12
                                                                              Australia            13
 ISRAEL                    Inter Israel Real Estate Agency
                                                                              China                13
 IRELAND                   Lisney                                             Hong Kong            13
                                                                              India                13
 JORDAN                    Michael Dunn & Co.                                 Indonesia            13
                                                                              Japan                13
 LEBANON                   Michael Dunn & Co.
                                                                              Malaysia             13
 MALAYSIA                  YY Property Solutions                              New Zealand          13
                                                                              Philippines          13
 NEW ZEALAND               Bayleys Realty Group Limited                       Singapore            13
 NORWAY                    Malling & Co.                                      South Korea          14
                                                                              Taiwan               14
 PHILIPPINES               Cuervo Far East Inc.                               Thailand             14
                                                                              Vietnam              14
 SOUTH AFRICA              Pace Property Group Ltd.
                                                                       THE MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA    15
 SWITZERLAND               SPG Intercity                                      Bahrain              16
                                                                              Egypt                16
 SYRIA                     Michael Dunn & Co.                                 Israel               16
 TAIWAN                    REPro International Inc.                           Jordan               16
                                                                              Kuwait               16
 THAILAND                  Nexus Property Consultants Ltd.                    Lebanon              16
                                                                              Oman                 16
                                                                              Qatar                16
All other information has been provided by Cushman & Wakefield.                Saudi Arabia         16
                                                                              South Africa         16
                                                                              Syria                17
                                                                              UAE                  17
                                                                       GLOBAL RETAIL RENTS         18




                                                                                                        1
GLOBAL OVERVIEW



Notwithstanding a fragile economic recovery and subdued                                                                                                      GLOBAL: RENTAL GROWTH OVER FIVE YEARS
consumer sentiment in many countries, prime rents rebounded                                                                                 15%

strongly (4.8%) over the year to June, supported by a combination
of growth among a raft of successful brands, aggressive retailer
expansion in emerging markets and fierce competition for the best                                                                            10%

and most high-profile global shopping locations. In stark contrast
to 2009/2010, among the 278 locations surveyed, the number




                                                                                                             Annual Rental Growth to June
                                                                                                                                             5%
showing rental growth (141) considerably exceeded sites seeing
rental declines (45). The extent of correction was, however, highly
varied and driven by a range of factors, linked to both structural                                                                           0%

changes and economic conditions.

The pace of rental growth in the Americas was yet again impressive,                                                                          -5%


accelerating to 7.4% over the year to June, generally aided by
better credit accessibility and more robust labour markets in
                                                                                                                                            -10%
South America. This uplift was, however, surpassed by Asia Pacific                                                                                            2007                          2008        2009         2010                 2011

(12.2%), with increased international demand for space especially
evident in China and India. Reduced availability in many Asian                                                                                                                  TOP TEN GLOBAL LOCATIONS
markets, where supply is at a premium and luxury retailer interest                 City                                                                                       Location                                     US/sq.ft/yr          €/sq.m/yr
is strong, produced double-digit growth in several locations, and
                                                                                   New York                                                                                   5th Avenue                                     2,250               16,704
the region dominated this year’s top 10 ranking, with six of the
                                                                                   Hong Kong                                                                                  Causeway Bay                                   1,943               14,426
most expensive main streets located in Asia Pacific.
                                                                                   Hong Kong                                                                                  Central                                        1,619               12,022
Along with the stagnation in the Middle East and Africa, rental                    Hong Kong                                                                                  Tsim Sha Tsui                                  1,377               10,224
growth across Europe (1.9%) was considerably more restrained                       New York                                                                                   East 57th Street                               1,200                8,909
and lagged behind other regions. Nevertheless, it bounced back                     Tokyo                                                                                      Ginza                                          1,044                7,750
from the profound decline recorded in 2009/2010, with progress                     Sydney                                                                                     Pitt Street Mall                                 995                7,384
spurred by structural shifts rather than economic drivers, as                      Paris                                                                                      Avenue des Champs Elysées                        992                7,364
retailers remained eager to build a presence in the most sought-after
                                                                                   Tokyo                                                                                      Omotesando                                       960                7,130
shopping locations. The emergence of a dual-track global occupier
market did not, however, translate into significant movements in                    London                                                                                     New Bond Street                                  930                6,901
the ranking of the most expensive locations in each country. Fifth
Avenue, New York retained its top position, followed closely again
                                                                                                                                                                               GLOBAL: STRONGEST GROWTH
by Causeway Bay, Hong Kong and Ginza, Tokyo a distant third.
The most notable movement was Pitt Street Mall in Sydney, which,                                                120%

on the back of redevelopments and a revitalisation, surged five
places to become the fourth most expensive location in the world.                                               100%



The outlook for the retail sector differs by region but is nevertheless
                                                                         Annual Rental Growth to June 2011




expected to follow a similar trend to the one observed in the past                                                              80%


12 months, with steady if not unspectacular rental growth and two
poles of retailer demand: one in emerging markets and the other                                                                 60%
in global gateway cities. Retailer growth strategies are expected to
evolve alongside the different regional economic dynamics as cross-
                                                                                                                                40%
border and domestic retailers evaluate their footprint, locations and
expansion plans.
                                                                                                                                20%

Whilst global headwinds are expected to persist and the backdrop
is anticipated to be challenging, economic fundamentals in Asia
                                                                                                                                            0%
Pacific and South America are expected to remain intact. Vibrant
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   e




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occupier activity in the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China)
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and other emerging markets will continue to underpin rental
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markets.




2
MOST EXPENSIVE RETAIL LOCATION IN EACH COUNTRY


    New York
  Hong Kong
         Tokyo
        Sydney
           Paris
       London
          Milan
        Zurich
          Seoul
        Munich
    São Paulo
        Vienna
    Barcelona
     Moscow
        Dublin
         Beijing
    Singapore
  Amsterdam
       Tel Aviv
      Toronto
   New Delhi
        Athens
    Auckland
 Copenhagen
       Istanbul
           Kiev
           Oslo
        Prague
      Helsinki
Kuala Lumpur
      Brussels
          Taipei
     St Helier
   Stockholm
        Bogota
 Luxembourg
         Beirut
      Santiago
         Hanoi
     Budapest
      Warsaw
         Lisbon
        Jakarta
  Kuwait City
      Bangkok
    Bucharest
 Buenos Aires
          Cairo
   Damascus
Johannesburg
        Muscat
           Sofia
  Mexico City
    Bratislava
         Quito
          Doha
   Abu Dhabi
      Manama
      Caracas
        Riyadh
      Amman
           Lima
         Manila


                   0                                          500                                          1000                                      1500   2000   2500
                                                                                                                         US$/sq.ft/year

                       N.B The rents of this graph are given in US$/sq.ft/year. To convert the rent in sq.ft to a rent in sq.m multiply by 10.764.




                                                                                                                                                                          3
MOST EXPENSIVE RETAIL LOCATION IN EACH COUNTRY


                                         LOCATION RANKING
    Rank   Rank   Country                  City          Location                                     Rent        Rent

    2011   2010                                                                                 US/sq.ft/yr   €/sq.m/yr
      1      1    USA                     New York       5th Avenue                               2,250       16,704
      2      2    Hong Kong               Hong Kong      Causeway Bay                             1,943       14,426
      3      3    Japan                   Tokyo          Ginza                                    1,044        7,750
      4      9    Australia               Sydney         Pitt Street Mall                            995       7,384
      5      5    France                  Paris          Avenue des Champs Elysées                   992       7,364
      6      4    UK                      London         New Bond Street                             930       6,901
      7      6    Italy                   Milan          Via Montenapoleone                          916       6,800
      8      7    Switzerland             Zurich         Bahnhofstrasse                              883       6,553
      9      8    South Korea             Seoul          Myeongdong                                  635       4,714
     10     10    Germany                 Munich         Kaufingerstraße                             533       3,960
     11     11    Brazil                  São Paulo      Iguatemi Shopping                           531       3,942
     12     12    Austria                 Vienna         Kärntnerstraße                              444       3,300
     13     14    Spain                   Barcelona      Portal de l'Angel                           420       3,120
     14     15    Russia                  Moscow         Tverskaya                                   418       3,104
     15     13    Ireland                 Dublin         Grafton Street                              405       3,007
     16     16    China                   Beijing        Wangfujing                                  379       2,817
     17     18    Singapore               Singapore      Orchard Road                                371       2,758
     18     22    The Netherlands         Amsterdam      Kalverstraat                                337       2,500
     19     35    Israel                  Tel Aviv       Ramat Aviv                                  328       2,433
     20     20    Canada                  Toronto        Bloor Street                                326       2,423
     21     21    India                   New Delhi      Khan Market                                 322       2,392
     22     19    Greece                  Athens         Ermou                                       315       2,340
     23    n/a    New Zealand             Auckland       CBD                                         302       2,242
     24     23    Denmark                 Copenhagen     Strøget                                     298       2,212
     25    n/a    Turkey                  Istanbul       Centre                                      290       2,152
     26    n/a    Ukraine                 Kiev           Kreshatik Street                            279       2,069
     27     28    Norway                  Oslo           Karl Johan Gate                             277       2,057
     28     27    Czech Republic          Prague         Na Prikope/Wenceslas Square                 275       2,040
     29     32    Finland                 Helsinki       City Centre                                 259       1,920
     30     26    Malaysia                Kuala Lumpur   Suria KLCC                                  258       1,918
     31     29    Belgium                 Brussels       Rue Neuve                                   242       1,800
     32     34    Taiwan                  Taipei         ZhongXiao E. Road                           235       1,743
     33    n/a    Channel Islands         St Helier      King Street                                 233       1,728
     34    =30    Sweden                  Stockholm      Biblioteksgatan                             211       1,563
     35    n/a    Colombia                Bogota         Shopping Centre                             201       1,494
     36    =32    Luxembourg              Luxembourg     Luxembourg City                             194       1,440
     37    =30    Lebanon                 Beirut         ABC Centre Achrafieh                        186       1,379
     38     36    Chile                   Santiago       Downtown (Paseo Ahumada)                    183       1,359
     39    n/a    Vietnam                 Hanoi          Shopping Centre                             167       1,241
     40     37    Hungary                 Budapest       Váci utca                                   162       1,200
     41     40    Poland                  Warsaw         ul. Nowy Swiat                              137       1,020
     42    =42    Portugal                Lisbon         Chiado                                      129         960
     43     38    Indonesia               Jakarta        CBD                                         124         917
     44     39    Kuwait                  Kuwait City    Raya Mall                                   122         905
     45     49    Thailand                Bangkok        City Centre                                 105         781
     46    =47    Romania                 Bucharest      Bulevardul Magheru                          105         780
     47     44    Argentina               Buenos Aires   Florida                                     100         745
    =48     45    Egypt                   Cairo          City Stars                                   93         690
    =48     41    Syria                   Damascus       Cham Centre                                  93         690
     50     50    South Africa            Johannesburg   Sandton City                                 90         672
     51    =47    Oman                    Muscat         Muscat City Centre                           87         645
     52    =51    Bulgaria                Sofia          Vitosha Blvd                                 81         600
     53     53    Mexico                  Mexico City    Mazaryk                                      74         546
     54     55    Slovakia                Bratislava     Downtown                                     73         540
     55     52    Ecuador                 Quito          Av Naciones Unidas (Shopping Centre)         73         539
     56    n/a    Qatar                   Doha           Landmark                                     69         511
     57    =42    United Arab Emirates    Abu Dhabi      Abu Dhabi Mall                               68         507
     58     46    Bahrain                 Manama         Seef - Bahrain City Centre                   65         483
     59     58    Venezuela               Caracas        Shopping Centre                              61         455
     60     57    Saudi Arabia            Riyadh         Kingdom Mall                                 59         441
     61     56    Jordan                  Amman          City Centre (BCD)                            56         414
     62    n/a    Peru                    Lima           Shopping Centre                              45         331
     63     59    Philippines             Manila         Fort Bonifacio                               35         258


4
GLOBAL RENTAL PERFORMANCE


                               EXCHANGE RATES                                           GLOBAL RENTAL PERFORMANCE IN THE
                                                                                                YEAR TO JUNE 2011
 Country                Rent Quoted          1 US$ equals    1 Euro equals   Countries Showing                        Number                       % of Total
 Argentina              US Dollar                  1.0000          1.4499
                                                                             Rental Growth                                  39                          62%
 Australia              Australian Dollar          0.9341          1.3542
 Austria                Euro                       0.6897          1.0000    Fall in Rents                                  12                          19%
 Bahrain                Bahraini Dinar             0.3770          0.5466    Stable Rents                                   12                          19%
 Belgium                Euro                       0.6897          1.0000
 Brazil                 Real                       1.5623          2.2651
                                                                             Locations Showing                        Number                       % of Total
 Bulgaria               Euro                       0.6897          1.0000
 Canada                 Canadian Dollar            0.9651          1.3993    Rental Growth                                141                           51%
 Channel Islands        Pounds Sterling            0.6229          0.9031
                                                                             Fall in Rents                                  45                          16%
 Chile                  US Dollar                  1.0000          1.4499
 China                  Yuan                       6.4640          9.3719
                                                                             Stable Rents                                   92                          33%
 Colombia               Colombian Peso            1,772.80        2,570.29
 Czech Republic         Euro                       0.6897          1.0000
 Denmark                Danish Krone               5.1446          7.4589    Average Rents (per region)           US$/sq.ft/Year               €/sq.m/Year
 Ecuador                US Dollar                  1.0000          1.4499
 Egypt                  US Dollar                  1.0000          1.4499    Americas                                      230                        1,704
 Finland                Euro                       0.6897          1.0000      South America                               128                          953
 France                 Euro                       0.6897          1.0000
                                                                               North America                               302                        2,241
 Germany                Euro                       0.6897          1.0000
 Greece                 Euro                        0.6897          1.0000   Asia Pacific                                  320                        2,376
 Hong Kong              Hong Kong Dollar           7.7813         11.2817    Europe total                                  257                        1,907
 Hungary                Euro                       0.6897          1.0000
                                                                               Eurozone Countries                          298                        2,216
 India                  Rupees                    44.7025         64.8120
 Indonesia              Rupiah                    8,575.50        12,433.2
                                                                               Western Europe                              298                        2,215
 Ireland                Euro                       0.6897          1.0000      Central & Eastern Europe                    134                          992
 Israel                 Shekel                     3.4025          4.9331    Middle East & Africa                          111                          822
 Italy                  Euro                       0.6897          1.0000
 Japan                  Yen                       80.7600         117.090
 Jordan                 US Dollar                  1.0000          1.4499
 Kuwait                 Kuwaiti Dinar              0.2743          0.3977
                                                                                                                                 % Rental Growth
 Lebanon                US Dollar                  1.0000          1.4499    Average Rental Growth (per region)
 Luxembourg             Euro                       0.6897          1.0000
 Malaysia               Ringgit                    3.0195          4.3779    Americas                                                 7.4%
 Mexico                 US Dollar                  1.0000          1.4499      South America                                         10.6%
 New Zealand            New Zealand Dollar         1.2108          1.7555
                                                                               North America                                          5.1%
 Norway                 Norwegian Krone            5.3655          7.7791
 Oman                   Omani Rial                 0.3851          0.5583    Asia Pacific                                            12.2%
 Peru                   US Dollar                  1.0000          1.4499    Europe total                                             1.9%
 Philippines            Philippine Peso           43.3350         62.8293
                                                                               Eurozone Countries                                     2.4%
 Poland                 Euro                       0.6897          1.0000
 Portugal               Euro                       0.6897          1.0000      Western Europe                                         2.4%
 Qatar                  Qatari Riyal               3.6415          5.2797      Central & Eastern Europe                               0.4%
 Romania                Euro                       0.6897          1.0000
                                                                             Middle East & Africa                                     0.0%
 Russia                 US Dollar                  1.0000          1.4499
 Saudi Arabia           Saudi Riyal                3.7501          5.4370
 Singapore              Singaporean Dollar         1.2276          1.7799
 Slovakia               Euro                       0.6897          1.0000
                                                                             The World’s Most Expensive
 South Africa           Rand                       6.7790          9.8286                                         US$/sq.ft/Year               €/sq.m/Year
                                                                             Main Street Location
 South Korea            South Korean Won          1,067.65        1,547.93
 Spain                  Euro                       0.6897          1.0000
 Sweden                 Krona                      6.3101          9.1487    5th Avenue, New York                       2,250                        16,704
 Switzerland            Swiss Franc                0.8420          1.2208
 Syria                  US Dollar                  1.0000          1.4499
                                                                             Average rent of 278 Main Street              251                         1,863
 Taiwan                 Taiwan Dollar             28.7235         41.6448
                                                                             Locations
 Thailand               Baht                      30.7250         44.5467
 The Netherlands        Euro                       0.6897          1.0000
 Turkey                 US Dollar                  1.0000          1.4499
 UK                     Pounds Sterling            0.6229          0.9031
 Ukraine                US Dollar                  1.0000          1.4499
 United Arab Emirates   Dirham                     3.6730          5.3253
 USA                    US Dollar                  1.0000          1.4499
 Venezuela              US Dollar                  1.0000          1.4499
 Vietnam                US Dollar                  1.0000          1.4499




                                                                                                                                                                5
EUROPE OVERVIEW



 The prime segment of the European occupier market proved                                                                                                   EUROPE: RENTAL GROWTH OVER FIVE YEARS
 resilient over the past 12 months, despite a volatile recovery and                                                                            12%

 fragile consumer sentiment. Following the notable decline observed
 in 2009/2010, rents in the region rose by 1.9% as only five of
                                                                                                                                                 9%
 the 27 markets surveyed recorded falls and 16 saw rents rise. The
 growth picture was, however, heavily varied across the continent.




                                                                                                               Annual Rental Growth to June
                                                                                                                                                 6%


 Western European prime rents moved up 2.4% over the year
 to June. Strong growth was seen in Finland (23.3%), fuelled                                                                                     3%


 by a shortage of prime space, and Germany (11.8%), where a
 combination of favourable economic conditions, limited supply                                                                                   0%

 and increased international demand exerted upward pressure on
 values. Notable rises in Belgium (9.8%), Norway (8.0%), the                                                                                    -3%
 Netherlands (6.4%) and the UK (5.6%) also impacted on the
 average, while the Nordics – including Denmark (2.1%), Sweden
                                                                                                                                                -6%
 (3.1%) – all rebounded from 2009/2010, supported by robust                                                                                                    2007                      2008                           2009                 2010                   2011

 labour markets and strong economic fundamentals.
                                                                                                                                                                       TOP TEN LOCATIONS IN EUROPE
 In addition to cyclical factors, growth was also driven by structural    City                                                                                  Location                                                                       US/sq.ft/yr              €/sq.m/yr
 changes. Indeed, retailers increasingly focused on the big cities and
                                                                          Paris                                                                                 Avenue des Champs Elysées                                                              992                     7,364
 the most sought-after locations, with the main streets in London
                                                                          London                                                                                New Bond Street                                                                        930                     6,901
 and Paris seeing high demand. However, the sector remains
 deeply polarised in terms of locations, with ‘winners’ in the prime      Milan                                                                                 Via Montenapoleone                                                                     916                     6,800
 end of the market benefiting from strong interest and declining           Rome                                                                                  Via Condotti                                                                           902                     6,700
 availability, and ‘losers’ in secondary pitches lagging behind.          Zurich                                                                                Bahnhofstrasse                                                                         883                     6,553
                                                                          London                                                                                Oxford Street                                                                          689                     5,113
 Ireland and Greece appear to have suffered more than most in              Milan                                                                                 Corso Vittorio Emanuele                                                                647                     4,800
 the past year, with rental falls of 9.3% and 13.7% respectively.         Paris                                                                                 Avenue Montaigne                                                                       645                     4,787
 Nevertheless, values are expected to stabilise in 2011/2012 as
                                                                          Paris                                                                                 Rue du Faubourg St Honoré                                                              645                     4,787
 operators take advantage of current conditions to secure space and
 favourable leases. The ongoing sovereign debt issues surrounding         Milan                                                                                 Via della Spiga                                                                        633                     4,700
 some in the Eurozone have undermined consumer confidence. The
 subject is a long term problem and will be a recurring theme until
                                                                                                                                                                         EUROPE: STRONGEST GROWTH
 more deleveraging has been achieved. The economic growth picture
 is therefore expected to remain somewhat muted in the year ahead,                                                                      35%

 adding to consumer uncertainty.
                                                                                                                                        30%

 Some retailers are beginning to retarget emerging countries, with a
 shift toward markets such as Russia, Turkey and Poland. However,                                                                       25%
                                                                           Annual Rental Growth to June 2011




 whilst Turkey’s and Russia’s robust economic fundamentals drove
 occupier activity forward and prime rents up by 15.2% and                                                                              20%
 17.4% respectively – with limited availability also contributing
 towards the Russian increase – performance elsewhere in Central
                                                                                                                                        15%
 and Eastern Europe was far more subdued. Indeed, the inflation
 squeeze on incomes and anaemic sales growth translated into
                                                                                                                                        10%
 challenging trading conditions and rental falls across Romania
 (7.8%) and Bulgaria (16.1%). The declines were also prompted by
 the increasing supply of retail space, but conversely, this may open                                                                         5%


 the door for retailers who might not have otherwise considered the
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6
MARKET SUMMARIES



AUSTRIA                                                                BELGIUM

Economy                      Retail Property                           Economy                       Retail Property

Whilst trading conditions proved challenging in the first quarter       Notwithstanding the uncertainty surrounding the political
of 2011, retail sales have held up well over the past year. Occupier   landscape, occupier activity remains buoyant, with limited
activity remains healthy as a result of strong demand from             quality stock available and almost zero vacancy in the best
international chains looking to increase their footprint in prime      locations. Occupier demand has been driven by both the arrival
locations. In addition, a number of modernisations and expansions      of newcomers and the expansion of existing retailers. For the first
of existing stock are improving retail offerings across the country.    time, rental values in Meir (Antwerp) matched the levels seen in
                                                                       Rue Neuve (Brussels).

BULGARIA                                                               CHANNEL ISLANDS

Economy                      Retail Property                           Economy                       Retail Property

Weak sales continue to impact on occupier demand, and vacancy          Occupier activity remains relatively healthy, although the limited
remains high. Many retailers are relocating to take advantage of       supply of large-scale quality space continues to hamper the market.
lower rents, whilst others are consolidating. However, several food    There are currently no vacancies on the prime retail pitch of King
and discount chains are expanding and looking for convenience          Street. While demand is generally stable, there are a number
store locations nationwide. High street rents declined by 10-25%       of high street requirements that cannot be fulfilled without the
over the year to June, but showed signs of stabilising in 2011.        vacation of existing tenants.


CZECH REPUBLIC                                                         DENMARK
Economy                      Retail Property                           Economy                       Retail Property

Despite subdued consumer spending, retail sales continue to hold       Secondary locations continue to see declining demand on
up well and the occupier market has experienced growth over            the back of subdued consumer spending. Nevertheless, prime
the last 12 months. Retailers are generally less restrictive about     rents have generally maintained their values and in some cases
expansion plans, but are primarily focusing on prime locations.        registered growth over the year to June. In anticipation of further
                                                                       improvements in consumer sentiment and economic conditions,
                                                                       occupiers are expected to remain generally cautious.


FINLAND                                                                FRANCE

Economy                      Retail Property                           Economy                       Retail Property

There was a rebound in occupier demand in the year to June, and        Despite mixed consumer spending forecasts, the opening of
prime rents in Helsinki and Tampere reached record levels in early     several stores by newcomers, the rapid expansion of recently
2011. High occupancy has been recorded across Finland, and             established international retailers and the recovery of the luxury
several major retailers are planning further expansion despite the     sector have continued to support the market’s attractiveness. While
recent decline in consumer sentiment. Supply of quality retail space   the Champs-Elysées has again been home to several important
is expected to improve in 2011/12.                                     transactions, increased activity has confirmed the popularity of
                                                                       areas such as the Marais and Opera.

GERMANY                                                                GREECE

Economy                      Retail Property                           Economy                       Retail Property

Occupier demand strengthened over the past year on the back of         Retail sales have been declining since 2008, and there is little
strong economic fundamentals and several international retailers       demand for new space. Interest is limited to a handful of large
expanding or considering entry into the German market. However,        international players who are taking advantage of high vacancy to
the provision of high street space remained limited across the         secure prime space and negotiate favourable lease terms. However,
country and, as a result, prime rents rose over the past 12 months.    rents showed signs of stabilising in early 2011 following the severe
                                                                       falls observed in 2010.




                                                                                                                                              7
MARKET SUMMARIES



HUNGARY                                                                 IRELAND

Economy                       Retail Property                           Economy                        Retail Property

Occupier demand began to improve in the latter part of 2010,            Trading conditions remain challenging and some retailers have
though most retailers remain cautious. A number of international        continued closing unprofitable stores. Several international retailers
brands entered the market in recent months, while others are            are nevertheless taking advantage of lower rents and favourable
considering expansion, with interest focused on Budapest.               lease terms to expand or enter the market, with interest focused
However, apart from a handful of top shopping centres, vacancy          mainly on prime high streets and shopping centres. While rents
rates remain high. In the year to June, rental values remained stable   have fallen considerably over the year to June, they have shown
only in top locations, whilst others fell by approximately 10%.         signs of stabilising in Q2.
ITALY                                                                   LUXEMBOURG
    Economy                     Retail Property                         Economy                        Retail Property

Notwithstanding an improvement in sentiment, occupier activity          Fashion retailers continue to dominate the high street, with several
remains sluggish as a result of moderate growth and disappointing       international luxury brands currently trading. Cross-border
turnover figures. Nevertheless, some important key locations             activity remains an integral part of the retail landscape. Indeed, five
adversely affected during the economic crisis are now experiencing       to six newcomers are estimated to enter the market every year, keen
a rebound in demand, with cross-border retailers particularly active.   to take advantage of the opportunities present in such an affluent
                                                                        country.


THE NETHERLANDS                                                         NORWAY

                                                                        Economy                        Retail Property
    Economy                     Retail Property

The Dutch occupier market remains polarised, with strong                Occupier sentiment continues to improve on the back of strong
demand for high street locations and subdued interest in secondary      consumer spending growth. Indeed, several major players have
locations, as a result of lower footfall, increased online retailer     announced long-term expansion strategies. There is zero vacancy
competition and restrained spending. Prime retail locations             on the most sought-after streets, and key money is once again
in Amsterdam and Rotterdam may experience further upward                becoming prevalent. Prime high street rents have grown in the year
pressure on rents.                                                      to June, with further increases possible for top locations.


POLAND                                                                  PORTUGAL

    Economy                     Retail Property                         Economy                        Retail Property

Numerous international retailers are active in the market, with         Retail sales struggled in the year to June, with large falls in the first
several major players planning aggressive expansion strategies.         half of 2011 and new austerity measures will likely continue to
However, smaller, domestic retailers remain cautious. Occupier          impact on consumer spending. Nonetheless, selected retailers are
demand is selective, with interest focused on large units in the best   still expanding, taking space on key high streets, while demand for
locations. High street rents have recorded a mixed performance in       secondary locations continues to fall. Prime rents, supported by
the year to June, growing on the most popular streets and falling       limited supply, have generally been stable.
elsewhere.
ROMANIA                                                                 RUSSIA

    Economy                     Retail Property                         Economy                        Retail Property

Whilst retail sales remain disappointing and growth in the last 12      Occupier sentiment continued to improve on the back of economic
month has been negative, occupier activity is currently benefiting       growth and strong retail sales. Several global retailers are active in
from the opening of several new retail schemes. Economic                the market and some have restarted expansion plans which were
fundamentals are also expected to improve over the next year, with      previously on hold, and interest in regional cities is increasing. The
the country returning to recovery after two years of contraction.       growth has been further enhanced by a decrease in shopping centre
                                                                        development and a lack of available prime space.




8
MARKET SUMMARIES



SLOVAKIA                                                                SPAIN

Economy                       Retail Property                           Economy                                          Retail Property

Whilst occupier activity is improving, it remains largely dominated     Demand for prime retail space remained strong despite challenging
by international fashion operators and tends to be concentrated         trading conditions, with a number of prominent international
around the top locations of the country. Nevertheless, tenants are      operators continuing to extend their presence and others resuming
now also considering alternative locations as part of their expansion   expansion plans. Overall, prime rents were unchanged over the
plans.                                                                  year to June, supported by limited availability. Secondary locations
                                                                        continued to struggle, with rents coming under downward pressure
                                                                        and landlords offering incentives.

SWEDEN                                                                  SWITZERLAND

Economy                       Retail Property                           Economy                                          Retail Property

Whilst slower than the figures seen in 2009/2010, prime rents still      Headline rents have largely been maintained on the most popular
recorded positive growth over the 12 months to June. The nature of      shopping streets of the country. Occupier demand in Zurich and
the increases was more evenly distributed, with rises observed in all   Geneva continues to outstrip supply, with the availability of prime
of the three cities sampled. The overall outlook for retail property    space still scarce. International newcomers are only targeting the
remains positive, with prime strong demand expected for prime           most popular locations of the two largest cities. Existing retailers
properties.                                                             are considering expansions but are now also showing an interest in
                                                                        prime pitches of other Swiss cities.
TURKEY                                                                  UNITED KINGDOM

Economy                       Retail Property                           Economy                                          Retail Property

Notwithstanding an oversupply of leasable space, the vibrancy           The UK rental growth picture remained polarised over the last 12
of the Turkish economy has positively impacted on the occupier          months, with the main thoroughfares of Central London seeing
market, as retail sales growth reached double digits throughout         dynamic activity and strong rental growth, and rents in regions
2010. The improvement in occupier activity has translated into          such as the Midlands and the North of England softening further.
strong rental growth, with high street rents rising by an average of    Nevertheless, the rate of rental decline has slowed and there are
14.1% on the same period last year.                                     signs of new demand coming through.


UKRAINE

Economy                       Retail Property

Prime rents in the capital were stable over the past 12 month.
Nevertheless, domestic demand remains robust and is expected to
play an important role towards economic expansion going forward.
Occupier interest continues to be concentrated around the main
shopping destinations of Kiev.




                                                                                                               KEY INDICATORS


                                                                        Down               Up              Stable                    Stable/Up               Stable/Down

                                                                        Key indicator arrows show the anticipated trend for the coming 12 months relative to recent performance.




                                                                                                                                                                                   9
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Msatw 2011 report

  • 1. C U S H M A N & WA K E F I E L D R E S E A R C H M A IN S T REET S AC RO S S T HE WOR LD 2011
  • 2. MAIN STREETS ACROSS THE WORLD 2011 INTRODUCTION GLOBAL PROPERTY OVERVIEW 2 MOST EXPENSIVE LOCATIONS 3 Cushman & Wakefield is committed to providing an excellent GLOBAL RENTAL PERFORMANCE 5 service to their retail clients through the continuous monitoring EUROPE OVERVIEW 6 of retail trends and practices. This edition of Main Streets Across Austria 7 Belgium 7 The World provides a detailed analysis of retail property rental Bulgaria 7 performance across the globe in the twelve months to June 2011. Channel Islands 7 Czech Republic 7 Denmark 7 The information and data provided in this report are based on a Finland 7 comprehensive survey of Cushman & Wakefield’s international France 7 offices and the editors are extremely grateful to them for their time, Germany 7 Greece 7 effort and assistance. Hungary 8 Ireland 8 Our international representation is designed to facilitate the Italy 8 Luxembourg 8 rapid flow of information across borders and is supported by The Netherlands 8 a comprehensive database of market information and regular Norway 8 liaison meetings. This allows for the exchange of local market Poland 8 Portugal 8 knowledge and expertise, and for the co-ordination of strategy for Romania 8 international investment and locational decision-making. Russia 8 Slovakia 9 Spain 9 Information on the markets has been provided by Sweden 9 Cushman & Wakefield and its alliance partner listed in the table Switzerland 9 below: Turkey 9 UK 9 Ukraine 9 AUSTRIA Inter-Pool AMERICAS OVERVIEW 10 Argentina 11 BULGARIA Forton International Brazil 11 CHANNEL ISLANDS Buckley & Co Canada 11 Chile 11 CHILE Contempora Servicios Inmobiliarios Colombia 11 COLOMBIA Fonnegra Gerlein Ecuador 11 Mexico 11 DENMARK RED – Property Advisers Peru 11 USA 11 FINLAND Tuloskiinteistöt Venezuela 11 GREECE Proprius SA ASIA PACIFIC OVERVIEW 12 Australia 13 ISRAEL Inter Israel Real Estate Agency China 13 IRELAND Lisney Hong Kong 13 India 13 JORDAN Michael Dunn & Co. Indonesia 13 Japan 13 LEBANON Michael Dunn & Co. Malaysia 13 MALAYSIA YY Property Solutions New Zealand 13 Philippines 13 NEW ZEALAND Bayleys Realty Group Limited Singapore 13 NORWAY Malling & Co. South Korea 14 Taiwan 14 PHILIPPINES Cuervo Far East Inc. Thailand 14 Vietnam 14 SOUTH AFRICA Pace Property Group Ltd. THE MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA 15 SWITZERLAND SPG Intercity Bahrain 16 Egypt 16 SYRIA Michael Dunn & Co. Israel 16 TAIWAN REPro International Inc. Jordan 16 Kuwait 16 THAILAND Nexus Property Consultants Ltd. Lebanon 16 Oman 16 Qatar 16 All other information has been provided by Cushman & Wakefield. Saudi Arabia 16 South Africa 16 Syria 17 UAE 17 GLOBAL RETAIL RENTS 18 1
  • 3. GLOBAL OVERVIEW Notwithstanding a fragile economic recovery and subdued GLOBAL: RENTAL GROWTH OVER FIVE YEARS consumer sentiment in many countries, prime rents rebounded 15% strongly (4.8%) over the year to June, supported by a combination of growth among a raft of successful brands, aggressive retailer expansion in emerging markets and fierce competition for the best 10% and most high-profile global shopping locations. In stark contrast to 2009/2010, among the 278 locations surveyed, the number Annual Rental Growth to June 5% showing rental growth (141) considerably exceeded sites seeing rental declines (45). The extent of correction was, however, highly varied and driven by a range of factors, linked to both structural 0% changes and economic conditions. The pace of rental growth in the Americas was yet again impressive, -5% accelerating to 7.4% over the year to June, generally aided by better credit accessibility and more robust labour markets in -10% South America. This uplift was, however, surpassed by Asia Pacific 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (12.2%), with increased international demand for space especially evident in China and India. Reduced availability in many Asian TOP TEN GLOBAL LOCATIONS markets, where supply is at a premium and luxury retailer interest City Location US/sq.ft/yr €/sq.m/yr is strong, produced double-digit growth in several locations, and New York 5th Avenue 2,250 16,704 the region dominated this year’s top 10 ranking, with six of the Hong Kong Causeway Bay 1,943 14,426 most expensive main streets located in Asia Pacific. Hong Kong Central 1,619 12,022 Along with the stagnation in the Middle East and Africa, rental Hong Kong Tsim Sha Tsui 1,377 10,224 growth across Europe (1.9%) was considerably more restrained New York East 57th Street 1,200 8,909 and lagged behind other regions. Nevertheless, it bounced back Tokyo Ginza 1,044 7,750 from the profound decline recorded in 2009/2010, with progress Sydney Pitt Street Mall 995 7,384 spurred by structural shifts rather than economic drivers, as Paris Avenue des Champs Elysées 992 7,364 retailers remained eager to build a presence in the most sought-after Tokyo Omotesando 960 7,130 shopping locations. The emergence of a dual-track global occupier market did not, however, translate into significant movements in London New Bond Street 930 6,901 the ranking of the most expensive locations in each country. Fifth Avenue, New York retained its top position, followed closely again GLOBAL: STRONGEST GROWTH by Causeway Bay, Hong Kong and Ginza, Tokyo a distant third. The most notable movement was Pitt Street Mall in Sydney, which, 120% on the back of redevelopments and a revitalisation, surged five places to become the fourth most expensive location in the world. 100% The outlook for the retail sector differs by region but is nevertheless Annual Rental Growth to June 2011 expected to follow a similar trend to the one observed in the past 80% 12 months, with steady if not unspectacular rental growth and two poles of retailer demand: one in emerging markets and the other 60% in global gateway cities. Retailer growth strategies are expected to evolve alongside the different regional economic dynamics as cross- 40% border and domestic retailers evaluate their footprint, locations and expansion plans. 20% Whilst global headwinds are expected to persist and the backdrop is anticipated to be challenging, economic fundamentals in Asia 0% Pacific and South America are expected to remain intact. Vibrant e ya an h a) g BD i ad su all tr occupier activity in the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) jin fie em ka id en Ro M aT C u ra an X rs gf C (Ip et ch g, Sh ve E. g, an ijin re ity ijin eA illa ,T W iao im and other emerging markets will continue to underpin rental St 'av Be ,C w Be tr g, Ts X D co itt ijin ki en ng cia , ,P ng os sin C ho Be ar ey Ko M ,G el BC growth, and growth globally will be further supported by the ,Z dn H iro g ei t, A Sy on ne ip H iru Ta Ja increasingly limited provision of quality retail space in developed Be de o Ri markets. 2
  • 4. MOST EXPENSIVE RETAIL LOCATION IN EACH COUNTRY New York Hong Kong Tokyo Sydney Paris London Milan Zurich Seoul Munich São Paulo Vienna Barcelona Moscow Dublin Beijing Singapore Amsterdam Tel Aviv Toronto New Delhi Athens Auckland Copenhagen Istanbul Kiev Oslo Prague Helsinki Kuala Lumpur Brussels Taipei St Helier Stockholm Bogota Luxembourg Beirut Santiago Hanoi Budapest Warsaw Lisbon Jakarta Kuwait City Bangkok Bucharest Buenos Aires Cairo Damascus Johannesburg Muscat Sofia Mexico City Bratislava Quito Doha Abu Dhabi Manama Caracas Riyadh Amman Lima Manila 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 US$/sq.ft/year N.B The rents of this graph are given in US$/sq.ft/year. To convert the rent in sq.ft to a rent in sq.m multiply by 10.764. 3
  • 5. MOST EXPENSIVE RETAIL LOCATION IN EACH COUNTRY LOCATION RANKING Rank Rank Country City Location Rent Rent 2011 2010 US/sq.ft/yr €/sq.m/yr 1 1 USA New York 5th Avenue 2,250 16,704 2 2 Hong Kong Hong Kong Causeway Bay 1,943 14,426 3 3 Japan Tokyo Ginza 1,044 7,750 4 9 Australia Sydney Pitt Street Mall 995 7,384 5 5 France Paris Avenue des Champs Elysées 992 7,364 6 4 UK London New Bond Street 930 6,901 7 6 Italy Milan Via Montenapoleone 916 6,800 8 7 Switzerland Zurich Bahnhofstrasse 883 6,553 9 8 South Korea Seoul Myeongdong 635 4,714 10 10 Germany Munich Kaufingerstraße 533 3,960 11 11 Brazil São Paulo Iguatemi Shopping 531 3,942 12 12 Austria Vienna Kärntnerstraße 444 3,300 13 14 Spain Barcelona Portal de l'Angel 420 3,120 14 15 Russia Moscow Tverskaya 418 3,104 15 13 Ireland Dublin Grafton Street 405 3,007 16 16 China Beijing Wangfujing 379 2,817 17 18 Singapore Singapore Orchard Road 371 2,758 18 22 The Netherlands Amsterdam Kalverstraat 337 2,500 19 35 Israel Tel Aviv Ramat Aviv 328 2,433 20 20 Canada Toronto Bloor Street 326 2,423 21 21 India New Delhi Khan Market 322 2,392 22 19 Greece Athens Ermou 315 2,340 23 n/a New Zealand Auckland CBD 302 2,242 24 23 Denmark Copenhagen Strøget 298 2,212 25 n/a Turkey Istanbul Centre 290 2,152 26 n/a Ukraine Kiev Kreshatik Street 279 2,069 27 28 Norway Oslo Karl Johan Gate 277 2,057 28 27 Czech Republic Prague Na Prikope/Wenceslas Square 275 2,040 29 32 Finland Helsinki City Centre 259 1,920 30 26 Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Suria KLCC 258 1,918 31 29 Belgium Brussels Rue Neuve 242 1,800 32 34 Taiwan Taipei ZhongXiao E. Road 235 1,743 33 n/a Channel Islands St Helier King Street 233 1,728 34 =30 Sweden Stockholm Biblioteksgatan 211 1,563 35 n/a Colombia Bogota Shopping Centre 201 1,494 36 =32 Luxembourg Luxembourg Luxembourg City 194 1,440 37 =30 Lebanon Beirut ABC Centre Achrafieh 186 1,379 38 36 Chile Santiago Downtown (Paseo Ahumada) 183 1,359 39 n/a Vietnam Hanoi Shopping Centre 167 1,241 40 37 Hungary Budapest Váci utca 162 1,200 41 40 Poland Warsaw ul. Nowy Swiat 137 1,020 42 =42 Portugal Lisbon Chiado 129 960 43 38 Indonesia Jakarta CBD 124 917 44 39 Kuwait Kuwait City Raya Mall 122 905 45 49 Thailand Bangkok City Centre 105 781 46 =47 Romania Bucharest Bulevardul Magheru 105 780 47 44 Argentina Buenos Aires Florida 100 745 =48 45 Egypt Cairo City Stars 93 690 =48 41 Syria Damascus Cham Centre 93 690 50 50 South Africa Johannesburg Sandton City 90 672 51 =47 Oman Muscat Muscat City Centre 87 645 52 =51 Bulgaria Sofia Vitosha Blvd 81 600 53 53 Mexico Mexico City Mazaryk 74 546 54 55 Slovakia Bratislava Downtown 73 540 55 52 Ecuador Quito Av Naciones Unidas (Shopping Centre) 73 539 56 n/a Qatar Doha Landmark 69 511 57 =42 United Arab Emirates Abu Dhabi Abu Dhabi Mall 68 507 58 46 Bahrain Manama Seef - Bahrain City Centre 65 483 59 58 Venezuela Caracas Shopping Centre 61 455 60 57 Saudi Arabia Riyadh Kingdom Mall 59 441 61 56 Jordan Amman City Centre (BCD) 56 414 62 n/a Peru Lima Shopping Centre 45 331 63 59 Philippines Manila Fort Bonifacio 35 258 4
  • 6. GLOBAL RENTAL PERFORMANCE EXCHANGE RATES GLOBAL RENTAL PERFORMANCE IN THE YEAR TO JUNE 2011 Country Rent Quoted 1 US$ equals 1 Euro equals Countries Showing Number % of Total Argentina US Dollar 1.0000 1.4499 Rental Growth 39 62% Australia Australian Dollar 0.9341 1.3542 Austria Euro 0.6897 1.0000 Fall in Rents 12 19% Bahrain Bahraini Dinar 0.3770 0.5466 Stable Rents 12 19% Belgium Euro 0.6897 1.0000 Brazil Real 1.5623 2.2651 Locations Showing Number % of Total Bulgaria Euro 0.6897 1.0000 Canada Canadian Dollar 0.9651 1.3993 Rental Growth 141 51% Channel Islands Pounds Sterling 0.6229 0.9031 Fall in Rents 45 16% Chile US Dollar 1.0000 1.4499 China Yuan 6.4640 9.3719 Stable Rents 92 33% Colombia Colombian Peso 1,772.80 2,570.29 Czech Republic Euro 0.6897 1.0000 Denmark Danish Krone 5.1446 7.4589 Average Rents (per region) US$/sq.ft/Year €/sq.m/Year Ecuador US Dollar 1.0000 1.4499 Egypt US Dollar 1.0000 1.4499 Americas 230 1,704 Finland Euro 0.6897 1.0000 South America 128 953 France Euro 0.6897 1.0000 North America 302 2,241 Germany Euro 0.6897 1.0000 Greece Euro 0.6897 1.0000 Asia Pacific 320 2,376 Hong Kong Hong Kong Dollar 7.7813 11.2817 Europe total 257 1,907 Hungary Euro 0.6897 1.0000 Eurozone Countries 298 2,216 India Rupees 44.7025 64.8120 Indonesia Rupiah 8,575.50 12,433.2 Western Europe 298 2,215 Ireland Euro 0.6897 1.0000 Central & Eastern Europe 134 992 Israel Shekel 3.4025 4.9331 Middle East & Africa 111 822 Italy Euro 0.6897 1.0000 Japan Yen 80.7600 117.090 Jordan US Dollar 1.0000 1.4499 Kuwait Kuwaiti Dinar 0.2743 0.3977 % Rental Growth Lebanon US Dollar 1.0000 1.4499 Average Rental Growth (per region) Luxembourg Euro 0.6897 1.0000 Malaysia Ringgit 3.0195 4.3779 Americas 7.4% Mexico US Dollar 1.0000 1.4499 South America 10.6% New Zealand New Zealand Dollar 1.2108 1.7555 North America 5.1% Norway Norwegian Krone 5.3655 7.7791 Oman Omani Rial 0.3851 0.5583 Asia Pacific 12.2% Peru US Dollar 1.0000 1.4499 Europe total 1.9% Philippines Philippine Peso 43.3350 62.8293 Eurozone Countries 2.4% Poland Euro 0.6897 1.0000 Portugal Euro 0.6897 1.0000 Western Europe 2.4% Qatar Qatari Riyal 3.6415 5.2797 Central & Eastern Europe 0.4% Romania Euro 0.6897 1.0000 Middle East & Africa 0.0% Russia US Dollar 1.0000 1.4499 Saudi Arabia Saudi Riyal 3.7501 5.4370 Singapore Singaporean Dollar 1.2276 1.7799 Slovakia Euro 0.6897 1.0000 The World’s Most Expensive South Africa Rand 6.7790 9.8286 US$/sq.ft/Year €/sq.m/Year Main Street Location South Korea South Korean Won 1,067.65 1,547.93 Spain Euro 0.6897 1.0000 Sweden Krona 6.3101 9.1487 5th Avenue, New York 2,250 16,704 Switzerland Swiss Franc 0.8420 1.2208 Syria US Dollar 1.0000 1.4499 Average rent of 278 Main Street 251 1,863 Taiwan Taiwan Dollar 28.7235 41.6448 Locations Thailand Baht 30.7250 44.5467 The Netherlands Euro 0.6897 1.0000 Turkey US Dollar 1.0000 1.4499 UK Pounds Sterling 0.6229 0.9031 Ukraine US Dollar 1.0000 1.4499 United Arab Emirates Dirham 3.6730 5.3253 USA US Dollar 1.0000 1.4499 Venezuela US Dollar 1.0000 1.4499 Vietnam US Dollar 1.0000 1.4499 5
  • 7. EUROPE OVERVIEW The prime segment of the European occupier market proved EUROPE: RENTAL GROWTH OVER FIVE YEARS resilient over the past 12 months, despite a volatile recovery and 12% fragile consumer sentiment. Following the notable decline observed in 2009/2010, rents in the region rose by 1.9% as only five of 9% the 27 markets surveyed recorded falls and 16 saw rents rise. The growth picture was, however, heavily varied across the continent. Annual Rental Growth to June 6% Western European prime rents moved up 2.4% over the year to June. Strong growth was seen in Finland (23.3%), fuelled 3% by a shortage of prime space, and Germany (11.8%), where a combination of favourable economic conditions, limited supply 0% and increased international demand exerted upward pressure on values. Notable rises in Belgium (9.8%), Norway (8.0%), the -3% Netherlands (6.4%) and the UK (5.6%) also impacted on the average, while the Nordics – including Denmark (2.1%), Sweden -6% (3.1%) – all rebounded from 2009/2010, supported by robust 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 labour markets and strong economic fundamentals. TOP TEN LOCATIONS IN EUROPE In addition to cyclical factors, growth was also driven by structural City Location US/sq.ft/yr €/sq.m/yr changes. Indeed, retailers increasingly focused on the big cities and Paris Avenue des Champs Elysées 992 7,364 the most sought-after locations, with the main streets in London London New Bond Street 930 6,901 and Paris seeing high demand. However, the sector remains deeply polarised in terms of locations, with ‘winners’ in the prime Milan Via Montenapoleone 916 6,800 end of the market benefiting from strong interest and declining Rome Via Condotti 902 6,700 availability, and ‘losers’ in secondary pitches lagging behind. Zurich Bahnhofstrasse 883 6,553 London Oxford Street 689 5,113 Ireland and Greece appear to have suffered more than most in Milan Corso Vittorio Emanuele 647 4,800 the past year, with rental falls of 9.3% and 13.7% respectively. Paris Avenue Montaigne 645 4,787 Nevertheless, values are expected to stabilise in 2011/2012 as Paris Rue du Faubourg St Honoré 645 4,787 operators take advantage of current conditions to secure space and favourable leases. The ongoing sovereign debt issues surrounding Milan Via della Spiga 633 4,700 some in the Eurozone have undermined consumer confidence. The subject is a long term problem and will be a recurring theme until EUROPE: STRONGEST GROWTH more deleveraging has been achieved. The economic growth picture is therefore expected to remain somewhat muted in the year ahead, 35% adding to consumer uncertainty. 30% Some retailers are beginning to retarget emerging countries, with a shift toward markets such as Russia, Turkey and Poland. However, 25% Annual Rental Growth to June 2011 whilst Turkey’s and Russia’s robust economic fundamentals drove occupier activity forward and prime rents up by 15.2% and 20% 17.4% respectively – with limited availability also contributing towards the Russian increase – performance elsewhere in Central 15% and Eastern Europe was far more subdued. Indeed, the inflation squeeze on incomes and anaemic sales growth translated into 10% challenging trading conditions and rental falls across Romania (7.8%) and Bulgaria (16.1%). The declines were also prompted by the increasing supply of retail space, but conversely, this may open 5% the door for retailers who might not have otherwise considered the markets. 0% e a e e kt e e) ) e et th ay aß tr tr ss tr pe sid re ou en en sk en ga tr os n (s St Pr sia gs er C ,C er C e aß d Further polarisation is nonetheless expected in the next 12 months (A er y Tv ild ity ity ul sk or tr eb si ev nb ch w, ns ,C i, C de xf ,N ie ck co ,S a ad ,O z re Ist k nt rg ön tC ne os sin pe ue on across Europe. A shortage of prime space and fierce competition bu da ,M og M Ta m el nd ag rs ol n, H Ta rg l, B te Lo rli C bu Pe bu Be may force retailers to pay higher rents, despite subdued consumer am an St H Ist demand, but values are expected to rise only moderately even in prime locations, while secondary pitches are set to see further falls. 6
  • 8. MARKET SUMMARIES AUSTRIA BELGIUM Economy Retail Property Economy Retail Property Whilst trading conditions proved challenging in the first quarter Notwithstanding the uncertainty surrounding the political of 2011, retail sales have held up well over the past year. Occupier landscape, occupier activity remains buoyant, with limited activity remains healthy as a result of strong demand from quality stock available and almost zero vacancy in the best international chains looking to increase their footprint in prime locations. Occupier demand has been driven by both the arrival locations. In addition, a number of modernisations and expansions of newcomers and the expansion of existing retailers. For the first of existing stock are improving retail offerings across the country. time, rental values in Meir (Antwerp) matched the levels seen in Rue Neuve (Brussels). BULGARIA CHANNEL ISLANDS Economy Retail Property Economy Retail Property Weak sales continue to impact on occupier demand, and vacancy Occupier activity remains relatively healthy, although the limited remains high. Many retailers are relocating to take advantage of supply of large-scale quality space continues to hamper the market. lower rents, whilst others are consolidating. However, several food There are currently no vacancies on the prime retail pitch of King and discount chains are expanding and looking for convenience Street. While demand is generally stable, there are a number store locations nationwide. High street rents declined by 10-25% of high street requirements that cannot be fulfilled without the over the year to June, but showed signs of stabilising in 2011. vacation of existing tenants. CZECH REPUBLIC DENMARK Economy Retail Property Economy Retail Property Despite subdued consumer spending, retail sales continue to hold Secondary locations continue to see declining demand on up well and the occupier market has experienced growth over the back of subdued consumer spending. Nevertheless, prime the last 12 months. Retailers are generally less restrictive about rents have generally maintained their values and in some cases expansion plans, but are primarily focusing on prime locations. registered growth over the year to June. In anticipation of further improvements in consumer sentiment and economic conditions, occupiers are expected to remain generally cautious. FINLAND FRANCE Economy Retail Property Economy Retail Property There was a rebound in occupier demand in the year to June, and Despite mixed consumer spending forecasts, the opening of prime rents in Helsinki and Tampere reached record levels in early several stores by newcomers, the rapid expansion of recently 2011. High occupancy has been recorded across Finland, and established international retailers and the recovery of the luxury several major retailers are planning further expansion despite the sector have continued to support the market’s attractiveness. While recent decline in consumer sentiment. Supply of quality retail space the Champs-Elysées has again been home to several important is expected to improve in 2011/12. transactions, increased activity has confirmed the popularity of areas such as the Marais and Opera. GERMANY GREECE Economy Retail Property Economy Retail Property Occupier demand strengthened over the past year on the back of Retail sales have been declining since 2008, and there is little strong economic fundamentals and several international retailers demand for new space. Interest is limited to a handful of large expanding or considering entry into the German market. However, international players who are taking advantage of high vacancy to the provision of high street space remained limited across the secure prime space and negotiate favourable lease terms. However, country and, as a result, prime rents rose over the past 12 months. rents showed signs of stabilising in early 2011 following the severe falls observed in 2010. 7
  • 9. MARKET SUMMARIES HUNGARY IRELAND Economy Retail Property Economy Retail Property Occupier demand began to improve in the latter part of 2010, Trading conditions remain challenging and some retailers have though most retailers remain cautious. A number of international continued closing unprofitable stores. Several international retailers brands entered the market in recent months, while others are are nevertheless taking advantage of lower rents and favourable considering expansion, with interest focused on Budapest. lease terms to expand or enter the market, with interest focused However, apart from a handful of top shopping centres, vacancy mainly on prime high streets and shopping centres. While rents rates remain high. In the year to June, rental values remained stable have fallen considerably over the year to June, they have shown only in top locations, whilst others fell by approximately 10%. signs of stabilising in Q2. ITALY LUXEMBOURG Economy Retail Property Economy Retail Property Notwithstanding an improvement in sentiment, occupier activity Fashion retailers continue to dominate the high street, with several remains sluggish as a result of moderate growth and disappointing international luxury brands currently trading. Cross-border turnover figures. Nevertheless, some important key locations activity remains an integral part of the retail landscape. Indeed, five adversely affected during the economic crisis are now experiencing to six newcomers are estimated to enter the market every year, keen a rebound in demand, with cross-border retailers particularly active. to take advantage of the opportunities present in such an affluent country. THE NETHERLANDS NORWAY Economy Retail Property Economy Retail Property The Dutch occupier market remains polarised, with strong Occupier sentiment continues to improve on the back of strong demand for high street locations and subdued interest in secondary consumer spending growth. Indeed, several major players have locations, as a result of lower footfall, increased online retailer announced long-term expansion strategies. There is zero vacancy competition and restrained spending. Prime retail locations on the most sought-after streets, and key money is once again in Amsterdam and Rotterdam may experience further upward becoming prevalent. Prime high street rents have grown in the year pressure on rents. to June, with further increases possible for top locations. POLAND PORTUGAL Economy Retail Property Economy Retail Property Numerous international retailers are active in the market, with Retail sales struggled in the year to June, with large falls in the first several major players planning aggressive expansion strategies. half of 2011 and new austerity measures will likely continue to However, smaller, domestic retailers remain cautious. Occupier impact on consumer spending. Nonetheless, selected retailers are demand is selective, with interest focused on large units in the best still expanding, taking space on key high streets, while demand for locations. High street rents have recorded a mixed performance in secondary locations continues to fall. Prime rents, supported by the year to June, growing on the most popular streets and falling limited supply, have generally been stable. elsewhere. ROMANIA RUSSIA Economy Retail Property Economy Retail Property Whilst retail sales remain disappointing and growth in the last 12 Occupier sentiment continued to improve on the back of economic month has been negative, occupier activity is currently benefiting growth and strong retail sales. Several global retailers are active in from the opening of several new retail schemes. Economic the market and some have restarted expansion plans which were fundamentals are also expected to improve over the next year, with previously on hold, and interest in regional cities is increasing. The the country returning to recovery after two years of contraction. growth has been further enhanced by a decrease in shopping centre development and a lack of available prime space. 8
  • 10. MARKET SUMMARIES SLOVAKIA SPAIN Economy Retail Property Economy Retail Property Whilst occupier activity is improving, it remains largely dominated Demand for prime retail space remained strong despite challenging by international fashion operators and tends to be concentrated trading conditions, with a number of prominent international around the top locations of the country. Nevertheless, tenants are operators continuing to extend their presence and others resuming now also considering alternative locations as part of their expansion expansion plans. Overall, prime rents were unchanged over the plans. year to June, supported by limited availability. Secondary locations continued to struggle, with rents coming under downward pressure and landlords offering incentives. SWEDEN SWITZERLAND Economy Retail Property Economy Retail Property Whilst slower than the figures seen in 2009/2010, prime rents still Headline rents have largely been maintained on the most popular recorded positive growth over the 12 months to June. The nature of shopping streets of the country. Occupier demand in Zurich and the increases was more evenly distributed, with rises observed in all Geneva continues to outstrip supply, with the availability of prime of the three cities sampled. The overall outlook for retail property space still scarce. International newcomers are only targeting the remains positive, with prime strong demand expected for prime most popular locations of the two largest cities. Existing retailers properties. are considering expansions but are now also showing an interest in prime pitches of other Swiss cities. TURKEY UNITED KINGDOM Economy Retail Property Economy Retail Property Notwithstanding an oversupply of leasable space, the vibrancy The UK rental growth picture remained polarised over the last 12 of the Turkish economy has positively impacted on the occupier months, with the main thoroughfares of Central London seeing market, as retail sales growth reached double digits throughout dynamic activity and strong rental growth, and rents in regions 2010. The improvement in occupier activity has translated into such as the Midlands and the North of England softening further. strong rental growth, with high street rents rising by an average of Nevertheless, the rate of rental decline has slowed and there are 14.1% on the same period last year. signs of new demand coming through. UKRAINE Economy Retail Property Prime rents in the capital were stable over the past 12 month. Nevertheless, domestic demand remains robust and is expected to play an important role towards economic expansion going forward. Occupier interest continues to be concentrated around the main shopping destinations of Kiev. KEY INDICATORS Down Up Stable Stable/Up Stable/Down Key indicator arrows show the anticipated trend for the coming 12 months relative to recent performance. 9