Presentation by Chris Leaver, Oxford University Delivered at the B4FA Media Dialogue Workshop, Kampala, Uganda - November 2012 www.b4fa.org

1. The Challenge of Achieving Food
Security
and Sustainability for Nine Billion
chris.leaver@plants.ox.ac.uk
Old Byzantine Proverb:
‘He who has bread may have troubles
He whoAchieving Food Security
lacks it has only one’
and
Sustainability for Nine
Billion
chris.leaver@plants.ox.ac.uk

2. We are dependent on cultivated plant species as the software
to translate the sun’s energy, water and mineral nutrients into
food, fibre and fuels
In Many Countries Productive Agriculture is Seasonal
.
CHLOROPHYLL: Is the only the molecule that can be seen from space. It
is found in all Green Plants and is responsible for capturing the light
energy from the Sun by a process know as PHOTOSYNTHESIS

3. PHOTOSYNTHESIS
• Life on earth ultimately
depends on energy derived
from the sun.
• Photosynthesis by green plants
is the only process of biological
importance that can capture
this energy.
• It provides energy, organic
matter and oxygen, and is the
only sustainable energy source
on our planet.
Sucrose
Starch
Proteins
Oils
THE FOOD WE EAT
Plants provide the food we eat,
the environment we enjoy &
the air we breathe.

4. CHALLENGES IN YOUR
LIFETIME
Humans appropriate about 30% of terrestrial photosynthetic
production and and ca 32% of the planets land area for cropland(12%) and
pasture(20%)
1. What level is truly sustainable, how much do we need to share with other
species and how can we optimise the usefulness and beneficial impact of
what we can harvest in the future?
2. How can we deliver global food security to avoid predicted deficits as early
as 2020 and to deliver an environmentally sustainable doubling of crop
production by 2050?. There are 7.0 billion people on earth now and this will
increase to ca. 9 billion by 2050
2. How can we reduce our dependence on, and ultimately replace
petrochemicals with renewable chemical feed stocks from plants?
4. How can we combat climate change,global warming and drought and minimise
its impact on crop productivity?

5. The European Vision of Agriculture:
Garden of Earthly Delight or Paradise Lost?
Peter Bruegel the Elder: The Harvest (1565) (Metropolitan Museum of Art, New York. USA)

6. The Reality of Prairie Agriculture
Soybean Harvest and Corn Cultivation
in Mato Grosso, Brazil

7. THE REALITY OF
AFRICAN AGRICULTURE

8. Agriculture is a success
story and has kept pace
with the increase in
population over the
centuries…….
The Eurocentric
Vision of Agriculture:
Garden of Earthly
Delight or Paradise Lost?
Peter Bruegel the Elder (1565)
The Reality:Prarie Agriculture
In Mato Grosso-Brazil
Soybean Harvest and
Corn Cultivation
Agriculture in
Africa

9. Today we could feed everyone on the planet thanks to plant breeding
and modern agriculture but now and in the future making sure
everyone has enough to eat is about politics (access,distribution etc---)
and science…….
• More than 1 billion people go hungry daily about 250
million are in Africa
• About 30,000 people, half of them children, die every
day due to hunger and malnutrition
• More than 3 billion people are living in absolute poverty
on less than two dollars a day and are generally deficient
in at least one nutrient necessary for maintaining their
health. They have real problems with food security.
• 650 Million of the Poorest Live in Rural Areas
“In the next 50 years, mankind will consume as much food as we have consumed
since the beginning of agriculture 10,000 years ago - Clive James”

10. Four innovations brought about the change in agriculture
and increased yield in the twentieth century
•
Productivity steadily increased with only a 10%
increase in land use :
– Mechanisation and irrigation
– Synthetic fertilisers
– Crop protection chemicals
– Plant Breeding and Geneticsthe ‘Green revolution’
•
The effect of these four innovations was to
allow more food to be produced from less
land-
•
The
developed
complacent!!
•
What are the innovations which will
change agriculture in this century?
world
became
Source: WBC for Sustainable Agriculture, Crop Losses to Pests (E-C Oerke); Journal of Agricultural Science (2006)
2/12/2014
10

11. But this has been at a cost………..
To feed and resource 7.0 billion people we have already lost…..
•1/5 of our topsoil (due to erosion, desertification and salinity)
•1/5 of our agricultural land (overgrazing marginal land)
•1/3 of our forests
•Plus Today Additionally…..
•Environmental pollution
•Climate change, groundwater depletion
•Depletion of the Ozone layer
•Massive fossil fuel usage/CO2 increase by 15% since 1950
•Species extinction, biodiversity loss
•Urbanisation → increased meat consumption (India and China etc)
•Obesity/starvation
•Zoonotic disease transmission HIV, SARs, BSE, Foot and Mouth, Bird Flu etc
THIS IS UNSUSTAINABLE : DOING NOTHING IS NOT AN OPTION

12. The worlds population has more than doubled in the last 50 years
Each Year the World’s Population Grows by about 80 Million People
220,000 new mouths to feed everyday
2012
1960
10% of the Population Lives
on 0.5% of the World’s Income
Developing and
Transition
Countries
1927
Developed countries

13. Demand is driven by population growth and land scarcity
People fed per hectare
World population
2030
2030
>5 people
>8 billion
2005
>4 people
2005
6.5 billion
1950
2.5 billion
1960
2 people
Source: FAO, World Bank statistics
As a result 1 in 6 of the world’s population, is hungry today,
and we have to increase food production by 70-100% by 2050

14. Increases in global population and urbanisation…
World population growth by region
Urbanisation
10
Oceania
Population (billions)
9
Northern America
8
Latin America
7
Europe
6
Asia
5
Africa
4
3
2
1
Source: United Nations, World Population
The largest increases in population will
Prospects: The 2006 Revision (medium scenario)
occur in megacities in Africa and Asia.
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
0
More than 50% of the worlds
population already live in urban
areas it will rise to 70%.

15. And now man made global warming and climate change…..
Carbon dioxide levels over
the last 60,000 years
Crop productivity is highly vulnerable to
variations in climate
Models suggest that climate change will have
a positive or neutral effect on crop yields at
high latitudes but negative effects at low
latitudes
Increased CO2 (from the current 385 ppm set
to rise to 450ppm) raises some yields
Lack of water limits others
Spectrum of pests and disease change

16. Climate Change is leading to unpredictable and more
severe weather patterns

17. Food Security, Poverty and Climate Change

18. The Challenge :
• World population will grow from 7bn 2011 to >9bn by
2050
• More than 50% of the worlds population already live
in urban areas and it will rise to 70%
• The largest increases in population will occur in
megacities in Africa and Asia
• Increasing affluence in Asia drives demand for meat,
cereals, edible oils
• Over 1bn people chronically hungry. 3 billion in
poverty
• Land available for agriculture will stay ~ constant or
decrease
• Decreasing water supplies limit crop yields

19. and………
•Climate warming is broadly neutral on global yields
but will have significant negative impact on those
countries with the greatest need. Leading to changes
in the distribution and severity of plant pests and
disease,rising sea levels,flooding,severe drought,
decline in soil quality (eg erosion,salinity)
•Increase in yields of major staple crops is plateauing
•Diversion of resources into growing energy crops for
biofuels rather than food crops
70- 100% more food required on same land area,
with improved sustainability, fairer distribution and
adaption to climate change

20. The food system is failing on sustainability - defined as…..
‘Meeting the needs of the present while improving the
ability of future generations to meet their own needs’
•Agriculture currently consumes 70% of
total global water withdrawals from
rivers and aquifers, many of which are
overexploited. Global water demand for
agriculture could rise by over 30% by
2030 and double by 2050.
•Of 11.5 billion ha of vegetated land on
earth, around 24% has undergone
human induced soil degradation
• Agriculture and forestry directly
contributes ca 30 % of global
anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions

21. We Must Grow More With Less
“Sustainable Intensification”
• All commentators agree that food production will have to increase substantially
this century. But there are very different views about how this should best be
achieved
• Sustainable agricultural intensification is defined as ‘producing more output from
the same area of land while reducing the negative environmental impacts ‘
• ...both agricultural and environmental outcomes are pre-eminent under
sustainable intensification
• To deliver sustainable intensification we must get beyond pointless arguments
based on entrenched beliefs or narrow debates about individual technologies and
must ……..
•
•
•
•
•
Focus on desired outcomes
Practical matter not an academic exercise
There is no single perfect solution
Sustainability is a journey, not the destination
Solutions must work locally for individual farmers and communities

22. The Choices
• Expand area of agriculture using virgin land
• Increase productivity in exporting countries of the
developed world
• Use all safe and appropriate, socially responsible and
sustainable opportunities to increase food supplies locally
and also improve ‘orphan crops’
• Develop a sustainable and environmentally friendly
agriculture which combines the best of conventional plant
breeding with the new biotechnologies including marker
assisted breeding and genetic modification
DOING NOTHING IS NOT AN OPTION

23. There are only two ways to increase food production
Time Magazine
Farm More Land
23
Produce More/Acre
In an age of climate change, land-use-conversion is the worst
possible thing to do
Time Magazine

24. Slash and Burn Agriculture: in order to export food and
animal feed to the developed and developing world
Deforestation
Soil Erosion

25. Declining Land Availability
12/02/2014 14:05
25

26. Major drought-prone regions of the world coincide with
those regions with the largest predicted increase in population
Changing and unpredictable weather patterns
Corn yields in USA decreased
by ca 30% in 2012 due to drought

27. We are running out of land and water!!!
Worldwide, more than 70% of food
production is dependent on irrigation.
Depletion of aquifers (underground water)
is occurring at twice there recharge
rate,water tables are falling and wells
running dry .
Salinisation and desertification is a major
consequence of irrigation
Since the overpumping of aquifers is occurring in many countries (particularily in
China and India) more or less simultaneously, the depletion of aquifers and the
resulting harvest cutbacks could come at roughly the same time, creating potentially
unmanageable food scarcity.

28. SEPTEMBER 2012
JULY 2012
Recent prolonged high
temperatures and drought in the
US Corn Belt and changing
weather conditions have led to
predictions that corn yields could
be reduced by between 20 and
30% this year. Significant
reductions in yields in Europe
and Russia.

29. The “Perfect Storm” that led to the 2007 food shortages
will be with us in the future
More people to feed
The price of fertiliser is
linked to the price of oil and
continues to rise
Consumption by large, affluent classes in
India , China,SEA and South America
40% of US Corn
used for Ethanol
Source: USDA ERS
29
High Energy Costs
Biofuels
Drought in Australia,Russian
Heatwaves and Fires in 2010
US Drought in 2012

30. Why Developing/Transition Countries
Have Problems with Food?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Limited Resources
Low Agricultural Productivity
Climate Change
Diminishing Productive Land/water
Poverty; Poor Distribution of Food
Misguided Priorities by politicians
Distribution/storage/transportation
Growing Population
Low Purchasing Power
Civil Strife, War
Economic and Environmental Migration

31. If Future Agriculture is to Support Everyone Adequately on
the Planet a combination of Improved and Appropriate
Technologies will be Required
• Integrated pest management
• Reduction of chemical use and energy
• Agroecology
• Water conservation
• No-till practices
• Precision agriculture where appropriate
• Conserving genetic diversity
• Orphan Crops and Specialized (biofuel?) crops
• Genetic modification by marker assisted breeding
and GM technology where appropriate
• GM is not a Silver Bullet!!

32. Mankind depends on a few crop species for food
The application of marker assisted breeding and GM technology has primarily been used
to improve food production in the major world crops such as maize and soyabean with
rice and wheat following behind. They should now be adapted to improving orphan crops
which can address food security and nutrition and provide economic benefits to
poor farmers in the developing world-sorghum,cowpea,sweet potato,groundnut,cassava

33. Conventional Plant Breeding has been very successful but yield gains are
now slowing. The new molecular technologies allow more precise and rapid
crop improvement by marker assisted selection breeding and GM
approaches. This requires the identification of the gene(s) that underlie the
traits and then combination with native traits using molecular markers
and/or GM to improve the crop
But yield gains of some
major crops are plateauing
and have not benefited
from GM Technology
Corn

34. Low crop yields are
part of the problem…
Corn Yield Trend
(Bushel Per Acre)
1990
2000
2005
Global Average
59
70
75
USA
113
137
149
Argentine
60
93
109
China
74
78
80
Brazil
33
47
54
India
23
29
31
Sub-Saharan Africa
22
24
25

35. Indian Agricultural Research Institute
Maize Yields, 1961-2009
China
World Average
Africa
Source: FAO

36. Average Cereal Yields
Agricultural productivity:
Africa 10,000 kcal/ha
Asia 25,000 kcal/ha
Global 20,000 kcal/ha
(FAO 2006)

37. We have to increase PRODUCTIVITY
• Increasing productivity provides a livelihood for
people, allowing them the opportunity to stay in
their communities. This leads to local economic
growth, better education, health, political stability
and food stability. Implicit with increases in
agricultural productivity is the more efficient use and
distribution of scarce resources such as fuel and
fertiliser.
• Critically, today per capita food production in rich
countries is twice that of the poor nations. We must
increase productivity in these countries to feed the
estimated 9 billion people.

38. Building Increased Productivity and
Sustainability into the Seed by
Plant Breeding and Biotechnology
Genetic modification by marker assisted
breeding and GM technology where
appropriate:
The scientific basis of all crop improvement is
identification of the genes that encode and
regulate specific phenotypic characteristics or
traits of use to the farmer.

39. How have we fared thus far?
Rice genome
Sequenced
Plant
Transformation
1983
1865
Mendel’s Discovery
of Genes
1905
Genetics
1953
Structure of DNA
1001
Arabidopsis
genomes
sequenced
2002 2011
1995 2000
Crop Circles
‘Synteny’
2010
First Plant NGS
Genome
Sequence