By Duncan Stewart of Deloitte Canada

1. TMT Predictions .
2012
June 12, 2012

2. We are “predictions experts”
Not forecasters
Not futurists
1 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

3. “Deloitte predicts that a new
generation of consumer oriented
tablet computers will sell
10-12 million units in 2010.”
Predictions launch
Fairmont Montréal
January 19, 2010
2 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

4. 2011 TMT Predictions.
Report Card
January 2012
3 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

5. 2011 Predictions report card
Technology
Smartphones and tablets: More than half of all
computers aren’t computers anymore
Operating system diversity: No standard emerges
on the smartphone or tablet
Tablets in the enterprise: More than just a toy
eGov: From option to obligation
Online regulation ratchets up, but cookies
live on
Squeezing the electrons in: Batteries don’t follow
Moore’s Law
Hydrogen comes out of hiding: The alternative
alternative energy source
Legend
Didn’t come true Came true, but less than Came true exactly as
as we predicted we predicted. At least so far much as we predicted
4 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

6. 2011 Predictions report card
Media
Television’s “super media” status strengthens
DVRs proliferate! The 30 second spot doesn’t die!
Push beats pull in the battle for the television
viewer
Social network advertising: How big can it get?
Games go online and on sale: The audience
grows, but at what price?
Keeping the life in live: A&R diversifies
Pop goes pop-up: Music retail goes seasonal
and temporary
Legend
Didn’t come true Came true, but less than Came true exactly as
as we predicted we predicted. At least so far much as we predicted
5 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

7. 2011 Predictions report card
Telecommunications
Getting to 4G cheaply: Will many carriers
opt for 3.5G instead?
Wi-Fi complements cellular broadband
for “data on the move”
What is “in store” for Wi-Fi: Online comparison
shopping on aisle 3
Video calling: The base goes mainstream,
but usage remains niche
Legend
Didn’t come true Came true, but less than Came true exactly as
as we predicted we predicted. At least so far much as we predicted
6 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

8. Total Prediction Accuracy
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
7 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

9. Mythbusters
8 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

10. We are in the post-PC era*
Internet accessing device units Internet device hours/month
1.5B 200 300B
0.2B 30 6B
1.4B 60 84B
9 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

11. 10 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

12. 11 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

13. 12 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

14. 13 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

15. 14 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

16. 15 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

17. 16 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

18. The $100 ‘smartphone’ reaches the first half billion
17 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

19. The $100 ‘smartphone’ reaches the first half billion
18 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

20. Hard times for the hard disk: solid state storage surges
19 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

21. Hard times for the hard disk: solid state storage surges
20 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

22. It takes two to tablet: the rise of the multi-tablet owner
21 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

23. It takes two to tablet: the rise of the multi-tablet owner
22 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

24. It takes two to tablet: the rise of the multi-tablet owner
23 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

25. It takes two to tablet: the rise of the multi-tablet owner
24 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

26. 25 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

27. 26 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

28. All aboard for the catch-up commuter thanks to the
portable DVR
27 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

29. All aboard for the catch-up commuter thank to the
portable DVR
28 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

30. 29 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

31. The schedule dominates, still
30 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

32. 31 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

33. 32 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

34. 33 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

35. 34 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

36. 35 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

37. 36 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

38. 37 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

39. 100
80
I Love Paying for TV
60
I Am Seriously
40 Considering Cancelling
I Plan to Cancel
20
Source: Tremor Video and Magid
0
38 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

40. 100
80
60
Cord Keepers
40
Cord Cutters
20
0
39 2011 2013 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

41. 100
10
Cord Keepers
1
Cord Cutters
0.1
0.01
40 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

42. 41 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

43. 42 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

44. 43 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

45. 57 4.2% of all hours
145
228 Lightest
Millions of
hours of TV Fourth
watched per 333
day by all Middle
Americans,
grouped by Second
quintiles
Heaviest
592
Source: Nielsen
44 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

46. 45 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

47. Consumer tech demand defies the economic head winds
46 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

48. Consumer tech demand defies the economic head winds
47 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

49. Market research is all in your head: fMRI machines
and media
48 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

50. 49 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

51. Market research is all in your head: fMRI machines
and media
50 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

52. It’s a “brand” new day for online ads
2010 U.S. measured media 2010 U.S. online media spend
Branding spend $149 Billion $26 Billion
61% $91B
$6B
$20B
response
Direct
39% $58B
Source: Brand.net analysis based on Barclays Capital and DMA
51 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

53. It’s a “brand” new day for online ads
2012 Ad Spending % Growth
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
All ads All online Online brand
Source: Zenith Optimedia and Deloitte estimates
52 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

54. It’s a “brand” new day for online ads
53 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

55. 54 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

56. It’s a “brand” new day for online ads
55 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

57. TMT Predictions customized events
Duncan Stewart can deliver a tailored presentation for your office/industry!
• Email Duncan: dunstewart@deloitte.ca
• Follow me on Twitter: dunstewart
• Friend me or subscribe on Facebook: facebook.com/dunstewart
56 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

58. 57