In the world of Web 2.0, anyone can claim to be a social media guru. How do you differentiate between a scam artist and a sage? How do you separate the snake oil from the substance?

1. Calling BS on
(Social Media) Gurus
Scott Berkun
@berkun
Scottberkun.com

2. Hi. I’m Scott.
• Microsoft ‘94-2003, IE 1.0 to 5.0 (not 6)
• Now writer and speaker
• BusinessWeek, Harvard Business, The
Economist, Wired, NYT, WSJ, NPR, CNBC
• Bestsellers:
– Making things happen, (O’Reilly 2005)
– The myths of Innovation, (O’Reilly, 2007)
– Confessions of a Public Speaker, (O’Reilly, 2009)
• www.scottberkun.com
– Blog, essays, videos & more

4. Agenda
• Snake Oil
• Sales / marketing vs. “truth”
• Questions for Gurus and Experts
• Occam and Social Media
• An inquiry into hype: by example

5. SNAKE OIL

6. We will always have get rick quick schemes

7. From 72ave.com

8. Words you should be poked
in the eye for saying
• Fundamental change
• Transformative
• Revolutionary
• Breakthrough
• Radical
• Paradigm-shift
• Game changing

9. GURU गु
GU - darkness
RU - light

10. The syllable gu means shadows. The syllable ru,
he who disperses them, because of the power
to disperse darkness the guru is thus named.
Advayataraka Upanishad 14—18, verse 5

11. Believe nothing,
No matter where you read it,
Or who has said it,
Not even if I have said it,
Unless it agrees with your own reason,
And your own common sense.
-buddha
(This is what a real guru sounds like)

12. Tools for the wise
Whitepaper on Cognitive Bias
http://bit.ly/cognitivebias

13. Sales & Marketing vs. “The truth”

15. Sales, (viral) marketing, advertising and PR
are value indifferent disciplines
Few say:
I won’t let you hire me unless
you make this product better

17. “The truth” is in danger when…
1. Folks with PR & Marketing talent
2. Are doing PR and Marketing
3. About their PR & Marketing services

18. Caveat Emptor
Let the buyer beware
Caveat Venditor
Let the seller beware

19. Questions for Gurus

20. Credibility
• It’s harder to ascertain credibility in “new” fields
• How long have you been doing this?
• Why are you more credible than the other guy?
• Who are your clients? Can I talk to them?
• What are your examples? Samples?
• Are the promises you are making realistic?

21. How do you know?
Phrases not to trust:
– “Studies say” – which studies? Are there equally
reputable studies that say the opposite?
– “Experts say” – which ones? When and where did
they say it?
– “The data shows…”
– “Ashton Kutcher / Gary Vaynerchuck did…”

22. Questions for experts
• Have you done this yourself?
• How do you know what you know?
• When have you or your theory been wrong?
• Why do so many people fail at this?
• What are you selling?
• Does anything you say not suggest I should buy?
• (SM) Why aren’t you more popular?

23. Challenges to
Social Media claims

24. CHRONOCENTRISM
We’d rather hear how amazing now is,
rather than how better it was or will be
It’s an easy way to make what you’re
selling sound exciting

25. Many claims we make
about the present, could
be made about the rise of
the telegraph
According to the book, besides news reporting, telegraphy, as the first
true global network, message routing, social networks … with gossip and
even marriages among operators ...instant messaging, cryptography, text
coding, abbreviated language slang, network security experts, hackers,
wire fraud, mailing lists, spamming, e-commerce, stock exchange …
(via Wikipedia)

26. Cited research is decades old

27. Dunbar’s “number” (1992)
http://watarts.uwaterloo.ca/~acheyne/dunbar.html

28. Challenges for Social Media
• Yes, we have better, more popular tools
• But we have always had
– social networks - it’s biological
– word of mouth, back-channel, “authentic” media
• New media does not destroy the old
• Signal to Noise is always the real problem
• If your product sucks, not much else matters
• ask “What problem am I trying to solve?”

29. An inquiry into hype: by example

31. Video: Social Media Revolution (Refresh)
Erik Qualman, Author of Socialnomics
This is a Hobson’s choice
http://socialnomics.net/2010/05/05/social-media-revolution-2-refresh/

32. Industrial Revolution Inventions
• From 1780 to 1899:
– Electric light
– Steam power
– Stethoscope
– Sewing Machine
– Indoor Plumbing / Toilet paper
– Elevators / Skyscrapers
– Telephone
– Coca-Cola

33. This has been true for years

35. U.S. Population (not world)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Age_structure

37. http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2008/02/10/opinion/10op.graphic.ready.html
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,766584,00.html

38. 62 mil
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2008/02/10/opinion/10op.graphic.ready.html

39. ANECDOTAL
VS.
EMPERICAL

42. Most reach claims are inflated
• Magazine subscriptions, TV watchers, RSS subs, etc.
• How many (twitter) followers :
– Are an individual, living person
– Are online when you happen to tweet
– reads the tweet
– Click on your link
– Reads what they see when they get there
– Who RTs or forwards
– Who buys what you are selling

43. http://techcrunch.com/2009/10/05/twitter-data-analysis-an-investors-perspective/
http://mashable.com/2010/03/10/twitter-follow-stats/

45. My lame hypothesis:
It is easier to get dumb
people to click on dumb
things

46. One definition of science
• Hypothesis - “What leads to Y?”
• Research – Create experiment w/reduced bias
• Collect and study data
• Conclusion “We think X leads to Y”
• Publish results so others can try to reproduce

48. Any real expert or guru should be asking other
experts and gurus to:
• Reference their claims
• Share methods so data can be reproduced
• Scrutinize the sources they RT / forward / link
• Bring more light, not darkness

49. ?

51. In Response to my questions, Dan added more details on his research.
Which is super cool.
By why aren’t we asking more experts to do the same before accepting
it, linking to it or letting it be called science?

52. Conclusions
• The burden is on you (Cognitive Bias)
• PR about PR has inherent credibility issues
• Ask experts for clients and samples
• Let others call you a guru
• You are responsible for facts you use
• You are responsible for facts you believe

53. Photo Credits & Thanks
• Campfire - http://www.sxc.hu/photo/681449
• Thanks: Joe McCarthy, Rayna, Divya, Karl Sakas,
Dorian Taylor, Bryan Zug, SMCSeattle
• Christopher Allen:
www.lifewithalacrity.com/2004/03/the_dunbar_numb.html
• Dunbar’s actual paper:
watarts.uwaterloo.ca/~acheyne/dunbar.html

54. QUESTIONS?
Scott Berkun
info@scottberkun.com
scottberkun.com
@berkun