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Bord Gáis Energy Index
                                                                   MARCH 2012




G29839 BG Energy Index March 2012 Rev5 JJ.indd 1                           11/04/2012 10:45
Bord Gáis Energy Index
                 MARCH 2012



                                                 INDEX DOWN 3% AS WHOLESALE GAS AND ELECTRICITY
                                                    PRICES FALL AND GLOBAL OIL PRICES STABILISE



                  Bord Gáis Energy Index (Dec 31st 2009 = 100)                                                                                                                                   OVERALL SUMMARY:
                                                                                    12 Month Rolling

                                                                                                                                                                                                 The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 3% in March
                                        Energy
                                                                                           Average
                                   Index Graph
                                          Data                  31 October 2009               87.80

             31 January 2009            92.10              Bord Gáis Energy Index
                                                              30 November 2009                87.15
                                                                                                                         12 Month Rolling Average                                                as a return to milder weather following the
                            180
            28 February 2009            87.77
                                                                                                                                                                                                 severe conditions experienced in Continental
                                                              31 December 2009                88.29
               31 March 2009            76.86
                                                                31 January 2010               88.92
                30 April 2009           77.63
                 31 May 2009
                30 June 2009
                                        84.37
                                        90.81
                                                               28 February 2010

                                                                  31 March 2010
                                                                                              90.20

                                                                                              92.51
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Europe in February put downward pressure
                 31 July 2009
              31 August 2009
                                        88.62
                                        88.35
                                                                    30 April 2010             95.31                                                                                              on wholesale gas and electricity prices.
          30 September 2009             85.76                       31 May 2010               97.49
             31 October 2009            92.39                       30 June 2010              99.22
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Falls in the average UK Day-ahead gas and
                            140
          30 November 2009              94.82

                                                                                                                                                                                                 Irish wholesale electricity were recorded
                                                                    31 July 2010             101.09
          31 December 2009             100.00
             31 January 2010            99.62                    31 August 2010              102.82
            28 February 2010           103.17                 30 September 2010              104.97
                                                                                                                                                                                                 in March despite the dramatic news of
                  Points




               31 March 2010           104.57
                                                                31 October 2010              106.66

                                                                                                                                                                                                 an uncontrolled gas leak at Total’s Elgin
                30 April 2010          111.22
                 31 May 2010           110.49                 30 November 2010               108.89
                30 June 2010           111.64
                                                                                                                                                                                                 platform in the North Sea towards the end
                                                              31 December 2010               111.88
                 31 July 2010          111.05
                                                                31 January 2011              114.76
              31 August 2010           109.16

                                                                                                                                                                                                 of the month.
                            100
          30 September 2010            111.50                  28 February 2011              117.91
             31 October 2010           112.64                     31 March 2011              121.41
          30 November 2010             121.67
                                                                    30 April 2011            124.45
          31 December 2010             135.86
             31 January 2011           134.21                       31 May 2011              126.97
            28 February 2011           140.96                       30 June 2011             128.88
               31 March 2011           146.51
                                                                    31 July 2011             131.18
                30 April 2011          147.76
                 31 May 2011           140.73                    31 August 2011              133.64


                                    60
                30 June 2011           134.54                 30 September 2011              135.59
                 31 July 2011          138.57
                                                                31 October 2011              137.54
              31 August 2011           138.69
          30 September 2011            134.89                 31 November 2011                139.53
             31 October 2011           136.14
                                                  Jan-09   Apr-09        Jul-09        Oct-09          Jan-10   Apr-10    Jul-10   Oct-10   Jan-11     Apr-11     Jul-11    Oct-11    Jan-12
                                                              31 December 2011                140.15
           31 November 2011             143.88
                                                                31 January 2012               141.01
            31 December 2011            143.22
              31 January 2012           144.43                 31 February 2012               142.38
             31 February 2012           156.81

                  1 Mth                          -3%                3 Mth                        7%              12 Mth              4%


                  After two months of rising prices, the price of a barrel of oil finally stabilised in March at the relatively high monthly average
                  price of $125 per barrel, as the markets focused less on the threat and potential impact of a military engagement between the
                  West and Iran. During the month, the narrative subtly moved from one of imminent war and supply disruption, to the West’s
                  ability to withstand a supply shock as attempts were made to reassure the markets that the world had adequate oil supplies
                  to withstand the loss of Iranian crude. Concern continues to be voiced about the potential impact higher oil prices are having
                  on consumer spending and inflation. A series of mixed economic releases and question marks about the strength of China’s
                  economy also weighed on oil markets as traders consider the viability of the price of a barrel of Brent crude.


                  Oil Index                                                                                                                                                                      OIL
                      Oil Graph
                                                                                                                                                                                                 After two months of rising prices, oil prices
                            180
                        Data

    31 January 2009
   28 February 2009
                           65.78
                           67.03                                                                                                                                                                 stabilised in March and traded consistently
                                                                                                                                                                                                 around $125 a barrel. With fewer reports
     31 March 2009         68.43
      30 April 2009        70.72
       31 May 2009         85.34
      30 June 2009
       31 July 2009
                           90.70
                           92.57
                                                                                                                                                                                                 and statements to stoke fears that a military
                                                                                                                                                                                                 engagement between the West and Iran was
    31 August 2009         89.31
 30 September 2009         86.74



                            140
   31 October 2009         93.84
  30 November 2009
  31 December 2009
                           96.36
                         100.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                 imminent, oil prices remained calm during
    31 January 2010        94.62
                                                                                                                                                                                                 the month.
                  Points




   28 February 2010      104.90
     31 March 2010       112.38
      30 April 2010      121.16
       31 May 2010
      30 June 2010
                         111.65
                         112.54
                                                                                                                                                                                                 In previous months, oil prices had been
       31 July 2010      110.19
                                                                                                                                                                                                 pushed higher on fears that the world would
                            100
    31 August 2010       108.17


                                                                                                                                                                                                 have insufficient oil to meet its daily demand.
 30 September 2010       111.13
   31 October 2010       109.88
  30 November 2010       121.18
  31 December 2010
    31 January 2011
                         130.36
                         135.62                                                                                                                                                                  These concerns had a weaker influence
                                                                                                                                                                                                 on prices in March as markets digested
   28 February 2011      149.07
     31 March 2011       152.09
      30 April 2011      156.15
       31 May 2011       149.41
                                                                                                                                                                                                 claims that Saudi Arabia could increase oil
                                    60
      30 June 2011       142.55


                                                                                                                                                                                                 production immediately if required and
       31 July 2011      149.27
    31 August 2011       146.57
 30 September 2011       140.51
   31 October 2011
31 November 2011
                         144.47
                         151.05
                                                 Jan-09    Apr-09       Jul-09        Oct-09           Jan-10   Apr-10   Jul-10    Oct-10   Jan-11     Apr-11     Jul-11    Oct-11     Jan-12    rumours that strategic reserves of oil were
31 December 2011
 31 January 2012
                         152.25
                         155.87
                                                                                                                                                                                                 to be released onto the world market. This
                                                                                                                                                     *Index adjusted for currency movements.
31 February 2012         169.16
                                                                                                                                                                              Data Source: ICE   general confidence in future oil supplies
                                                                                                                                                                                                 was reflected in the decision by the US to
                                                                                                                                                                                                 allow oil-related sanctions to go ahead on
                  1 Mth                           0%                3 Mth                       11%              12 Mth              11%
                                                                                                                                                                                                 the belief that there is sufficient oil to fill the
                                                                                                                                                                                                 petroleum gap left by Iran.
                                                                                                                                                                                                 The markets also seem to have paused to
                                                                                                                                                                                                 consider the potentially negative impact of
                                                                                                                                                                                                 rising oil prices on future economic growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                 and the underlying strength of China’s
                                                                                                                                                                                                 economy following some negative economic
                                                                                                                                                                                                 releases and forecasts.




G29839 BG Energy Index March 2012 Rev5 JJ.indd 2                                                                                                                                                                                               11/04/2012 10:45
Bord Gáis Energy Index
                           MARCH 2012


                            Natural Gas Index                                                                                                                                   NATURAL GAS
                                                                                                                                                                                In February, following the severe weather
                                         250
                         Natural


                                                                                                                                                                                experienced in Europe and concerns over
                       Gas Graph
                            Data


  31 January 2009
 28 February 2009
                          195.04
                          156.23                                                                                                                                                Russian gas supplies, the average Day-ahead
                                                                                                                                                                                gas price rose 20%. These dramatic increases
    31 March 2009          99.24
     30 April 2009         92.78


                                                                                                                                                                                proved temporary in nature and were reversed
      31 May 2009          87.00



                                         200
     30 June 2009          87.56
      31 July 2009         76.34
   31 August 2009
30 September 2009
                           69.43
                           61.72
                                                                                                                                                                                somewhat in March as the average March
  31 October 2009
30 November 2009
                           77.55
                           83.21                                                                                                                                                Day-ahead price fell 11% when compared to
                                                                                                                                                                                February.
                              Points




31 December 2009          100.00
  31 January 2010         125.88



                                         150
 28 February 2010         114.44


                                                                                                                                                                                A combination of weakening demand due to
    31 March 2010         101.67
     30 April 2010        106.04
      31 May 2010         130.73
     30 June 2010
      31 July 2010
                          145.29
                          157.48
                                                                                                                                                                                more seasonably mild weather (thus reducing
   31 August 2010
30 September 2010
                          145.96
                          132.67                                                                                                                                                the need to burn gas to heat homes), healthy
                                         100                                                                                                                                    supplies of gas from LNG terminals and imports
  31 October 2010         148.57
30 November 2010          167.11


                                                                                                                                                                                from Norway, and relatively high stock levels, all
31 December 2010          204.87
  31 January 2011         188.31
 28 February 2011         179.74
    31 March 2011
     30 April 2011
                          194.03
                          181.39
                                                                                                                                                                                conspired to put downward pressure on prices.
      31 May 2011         184.99

                                                                                                                                                                                Despite the dramatic news of an uncontrolled
                                             50
     30 June 2011         183.36
      31 July 2011        179.36
   31 August 2011
30 September 2011
                          172.82
                          180.07
                                                  Jan-09   Apr-09    Jul-09   Oct-09   Jan-10   Apr-10   Jul-10   Oct-10   Jan-11   Apr-11     Jul-11    Oct-11    Jan-12
                                                                                                                                                                                gas leak at Total’s Elgin platform in the North
                                                                                                                                                                                Sea toward the end of the month, prices failed
  31 October 2011         180.16
31 November 2011          191.53
31 December 2011          189.94
  31 January 2012
 31 February 2012
                          184.35
                          221.68
                                                                                                                                    *Index adjusted for currency movements.     to react. Total are considering various options
                                                                                                                                                Data Source: Spectron Group
                                                                                                                                                                                to tackle the leak which could include taking
                                                                                                                                                                                six months to drill a relief well. A prolonged loss
                                                                                                                                                                                of gas throughout the summer should not be
                            1 Mth                 -11%              3 Mth              4%         12 Mth             2%                                                         a problem as supplies overall are sufficient to
                                                                                                                                                                                meet the reduced summer demand.

                            Coal Index                                                                                                                                          COAL
                                                                                                                                                                                European coal prices recovered slightly at the
                        Coal Graph
                              Data       260                                                                                                                                    end of March following months of subdued
    31 January 2009
   28 February 2009
                           102.58
                             93.02
                                                                                                                                                                                activity and falling European prices.
     31 March 2009           82.80
       30 April 2009         78.58
                                                                                                                                                                                Despite a late rally in prices toward the end
                                         205
       31 May 2009           76.19
       30 June 2009
       31 July 2009
                             76.68
                             81.48                                                                                                                                              of the month (which resulted in a $2 increase
                                                                                                                                                                                in the price of coal in the last week of March),
    31 August 2009           84.15
 30 September 2009           83.00
    31 October 2009          86.26
  30 November 2009           88.54
                                                                                                                                                                                a bearish tone prevailed throughout the
                              Points




  31 December 2009         100.00


                                                                                                                                                                                European/Atlantic market due to ample
                                         150
    31 January 2010        105.77
   28 February 2010          95.28


                                                                                                                                                                                supplies, high stockpiles, low demand for
     31 March 2010           95.51
       30 April 2010       108.11
       31 May 2010         125.06
       30 June 2010
       31 July 2010
                           132.03
                           121.85                                                                                                                                               electricity and the beginning of spring and
                                                                                                                                                                                warmer weather.
    31 August 2010         123.28



                                             95
 30 September 2010         121.29
    31 October 2010        121.83


                                                                                                                                                                                With Europe lacking an appetite for coal,
  30 November 2010         150.34
  31 December 2010         159.48
    31 January 2011        148.31
   28 February 2011
     31 March 2011
                           149.34
                           153.91                                                                                                                                               supplies from the US and Colombia are
                                                                                                                                                                                now increasingly finding their way to the
       30 April 2011       148.29



                                             40
       31 May 2011         145.75


                                                                                                                                                                                Asian-Pacific region. As this region too is
       30 June 2011        144.90
       31 July 2011        147.62
    31 August 2011         149.65
                                                  Jan-09   Apr-09    Jul-09   Oct-09   Jan-10   Apr-10   Jul-10   Oct-10   Jan-11   Apr-11     Jul-11   Oct-11     Jan-12
 30 September 2011
    31 October 2011
                           156.20
                           145.04                                                                                                                                               well supplied, regional prices of coal around
                                                                                                                                                                                the world continue to be soft. Given that
  31 November 2011         142.82
  31 December 2011         145.65
    31 January 2012        134.66                                                                                                   *Index adjusted for currency movements.
    31 January 2012        125.54                                                                                                                            Data Source: ICE   the world’s number one consumer of coal
                                                                                                                                                                                revised its GDP target to 7.5% (from 9-10%
                                                                                                                                                                                in the previous five years), the market will
                            1 Mth                  1%               3 Mth         -13%            12 Mth            -18%
                                                                                                                                                                                be assessing any potential reduced Chinese
                                                                                                                                                                                demand will have on coal prices in the
                                                                                                                                                                                months ahead.
                            Electricity Index
                              Electricity
                             Graph Data
                                         180
                                                                                                                                                                                ELECTRICITY
       31 January 2009
      28 February 2009
                                   127.36
                                   117.38                                                                                                                                       Irish wholesale electricity prices were 8%
                                                                                                                                                                                lower in March compared to February.
         31 March 2009               89.56
          30 April 2009              88.58
           31 May 2009               82.33
          30 June 2009               91.74
           31 July 2009              83.00
                                                                                                                                                                                A combination of lower gas (with the
                                         140
        31 August 2009               89.26


                                                                                                                                                                                average monthly Day-ahead price falling
     30 September 2009               87.28
       31 October 2009               91.82
     30 November 2009                93.65


                                                                                                                                                                                11% in euro terms) and carbon (with the
                              Points




     31 December 2009              100.00
       31 January 2010             105.32


                                                                                                                                                                                average monthly price down approx 7% in
      28 February 2010               98.50
         31 March 2010               90.42
          30 April 2010              93.24
           31 May 2010
          30 June 2010
                                   105.19
                                   104.88                                                                                                                                       the month) prices, put downward pressure
                                         100                                                                                                                                    on wholesale electricity prices.
           31 July 2010            106.05
        31 August 2010             105.66
     30 September 2010             109.05
       31 October 2010             112.69


                                                                                                                                                                                As the majority of electricity used in Ireland
     30 November 2010              115.75
     31 December 2010              136.21
       31 January 2011             123.78
      28 February 2011
         31 March 2011
                                   120.12
                                   129.24
                                                                                                                                                                                is produced by burning gas, internationally
                                                                                                                                                                                traded gas prices heavily influence Irish
          30 April 2011            127.27
           31 May 2011             118.10
          30 June 2011
           31 July 2011
        31 August 2011
                                   112.46
                                   112.53
                                   118.86
                                             60                                                                                                                                 wholesale electricity prices.
     30 September 2011             117.61         Jan-09   Apr-09    Jul-09   Oct-09   Jan-10   Apr-10   Jul-10   Oct-10   Jan-11   Apr-11     Jul-11   Oct-11     Jan-12
       31 October 2011             114.14
     31 November 2011              123.77
     31 December 2011              119.63
        31 January 2012            117.47                                                                                                                Data Source: SEMO
       31 February 2012            125.14




                            1 Mth                 -8%               3 Mth          -3%            12 Mth           -10%




  G29839 BG Energy Index March 2012 Rev5 JJ.indd 3                                                                                                                                                                            11/04/2012 10:45
Bord Gáis Energy Index
        MARCH 2012



         FX Rates                                                                                                                                                 FX RATES
          31 January 2009
                             EUR/USD
                               1.283              31 January 2009
                                                                         EUR/GBP
                                                                              0.887                                                                               Despite the euro hitting a 16 month low
              1.60
         28 February 2009
            31 March 2009
                               1.272
                               1.323
                                                 28 February 2009
                                                    31 March 2009
                                                                              0.886
                                                                              0.925                                                                               of 1.27 versus the US Dollar on the 16th of
             30 April 2009     1.321
                                                     30 April 2009
                                                      31 May 2009
                                                                              0.894
                                                                              0.874
                                                                                                                                                                  January, the currency rebounded to close
                                                                                                                                                                  at 1.33 versus the US Dollar at the end of
              31 May 2009      1.412
                                                     30 June 2009             0.853


              1.40
             30 June 2009      1.405
                                                      31 July 2009            0.853
              31 July 2009
           31 August 2009
                               1.424
                               1.434
                                                   31 August 2009
                                                30 September 2009
                                                                              0.881
                                                                              0.914
                                                                                                                                                                  February. These gains were maintained in
        30 September 2009
          31 October 2009
                               1.464
                               1.474
                                                  31 October 2009
                                                30 November 2009
                                                                              0.896
                                                                              0.913
                                                                                                                                                                  March and the exchange rate finished the
              1.20
        30 November 2009
        31 December 2009
                               1.498
                               1.433
                                                31 December 2009
                                                  31 January 2010
                                                                              0.888
                                                                              0.867
                                                                                                                                                                  month at 1.33.
                                                 28 February 2010             0.893
                                                                                                                                                                  Confidence in the euro was supported
          31 January 2010      1.389
                                                    31 March 2010             0.891
         28 February 2010      1.360


              1.00                                                                                                                                                by positive comments from the Italian
                                                     30 April 2010            0.868
            31 March 2010      1.353
                                                      31 May 2010             0.846
             30 April 2010     1.327

                                                                                                                                                                  Prime Minister who believes that the euro
                                                     30 June 2010             0.819
              31 May 2010      1.230
                                                      31 July 2010            0.831
             30 June 2010      1.226

                                                                                                                                                                  area’s woes are ‘almost over’ and that a
                                                   31 August 2010             0.827
              31 July 2010     1.305


              0.80
                                                30 September 2010             0.866
                               1.269
                                                                                                                                                                  solution to Greece’s challenges is almost
           31 August 2010                         31 October 2010             0.869
        30 September 2010      1.362            30 November 2010              0.837


                                                                                                                                                                  accomplished. This tone contrasted sharply
          31 October 2010      1.392            31 December 2010              0.857
        30 November 2010       1.304              31 January 2011             0.854


              0.60
        31 December 2010
          31 January 2011
                               1.337
                               1.370
                                                 28 February 2011
                                                    31 March 2011
                                                                              0.849
                                                                              0.883                                                                               with a warning from the Federal Reserve
         28 February 2011
            31 March 2011
                              Jan-09
                               1.379
                               1.419
                                       Apr-09
                                                     30 April 2011
                                                    Jul-09
                                                      31 May 2011
                                                                     Oct-09
                                                                              0.888
                                                                                 Jan-10
                                                                              0.874
                                                                                          Apr-10   Jul-10   Oct-10   Jan-11   Apr-11   Jul-11   Oct-11   Jan-12   Chairman Ben Bernanke who warned that
             30 April 2011     1.483
                                                     30 June 2011
                                                      31 July 2011
                                                                              0.903
                                                                              0.875
                                                                                                                                                                  ‘it’s far too early to declare victory’.
              31 May 2011      1.437
                                                   31 August 2011             0.885
             30 June 2011
              31 July 2011
                               1.451
                               1.438
                                                30 September 2011
                                                  31 October 2011
                                                                              0.860
                                                                          0.8615
                                                                                                                                                                  The cautionary tone struck in the US
           31 August 2011
        30 September 2011
                               1.441
                               1.345
                                                31 November 2011          0.8562                                                                                  was echoed in the UK where the Bank of
        1 Mth                   0%              3 Mth                         3%            12 Mth             -6%            EURUSD
                                                31 December 2011          0.8334
          31 October 2011
        31 November 2011
                               1.395
                              1.3446
                                                  31 January 2012
                                                  31 February 2012
                                                                          0.8302
                                                                          0.8372
                                                                                                                                                                  England’s Governor said that while the
        31 December 2011      1.2961                                                                                                                              ECB’s long-year loans created a window of
        1 Mth
          31 January 2012
          31 January 2012
                               -1%
                              1.3084
                              1.3325
                                                3 Mth                         0%            12 Mth             -6%            EURGBP                              opportunity, it remains to be seen whether
                                                                                                                                                                  euro zone area officials will use the time to
                                                                                                                                                                  tackle the problems.

        MARKET OUTLOOK:
        Oil prices, having stabilised in March, will continue to be driven by events as they unfold between the West and Iran. Iran’s
        reaction to ongoing sanctions could set the tone for the markets in April. Should reported meetings occur between the
        leaders that defuse the situation, we should see prices ease back. A continued risk premium in the price of a barrel of oil
        will mean that institutions and politicians will be concerned about the impact higher energy costs is having on inflation,
        especially given the fragile state of the global economy. Economic releases from the world’s top two economies will be
        watched closely for evidence of growth in the US and a soft landing in China.
        In terms of gas prices, the weather, deliveries of gas, particularly of LNG cargos to the UK, and the markets assessment of
        the impact of the loss of gas due to the closure of the Elgin platform, will drive prices.




        RE-WEIGHTING OF BORD GÁIS ENERGY INDEX:
        Following the SEAI’s 2009 review of energy consumption in
        Ireland, released in Q4 2010, there was a 9.3% drop in overall                                                                                                    Oil 64.93%
        energy consumption. The most notable drop of 1.39% was in oil
        consumption in the form of gasoline and diesel. This reflects the
        economic downturn experienced at the time. The share of natural                                                                                                                                Gas
        gas and electricity increased by 0.63% and 0.57% respectively. An                                                                                                                              13.52%
        increase in the use of renewables and peat, at the expense of coal in
        electricity generation was also observed. As a result the Bord Gáis
        Energy Index has been reweighted to reflect the latest consumption                                                                                                     Electricity     Coal
        data. This has had a minimal effect on the overall shape of the Index,                                                                                                    18.40%       3.16%
        but may indicate future trends.

        For more information please contact: Fleishman-Hillard — Aidan McLaughlin — 085 749 0484
                                             Bord Gáis Energy — Christine Heffernan — 087 050 5555

        Disclaimer:
        The contents of this report are provided solely as an information guide. The report is presented to you “as is” and may or may
        not be correct, current, accurate or complete. While every effort is made in preparing material for publication no responsibility
        is accepted by or on behalf of Bord Gáis Eireann, the SEMO, ICE Futures Europe, the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland
        or Spectron Group Limited (together, the “Parties”) for any errors, omissions or misleading statements within this report. No
        representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or liability accepted by any of the Parties or any of their respective
        directors, employees or agents in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report. Each of the
        Parties and their respective directors, employees or agents does not and will not accept any liability in relation to the information
        contained in this report. Bord Gáis Eireann reserves the right at any time to revise, amend, alter or delete the information provided
        in this report.




G29839 BG Energy Index March 2012 Rev5 JJ.indd 4                                                                                                                                                           11/04/2012 10:45

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March 2012 Energy Index - Bord Gáis Energy

  • 1. Bord Gáis Energy Index MARCH 2012 G29839 BG Energy Index March 2012 Rev5 JJ.indd 1 11/04/2012 10:45
  • 2. Bord Gáis Energy Index MARCH 2012 INDEX DOWN 3% AS WHOLESALE GAS AND ELECTRICITY PRICES FALL AND GLOBAL OIL PRICES STABILISE Bord Gáis Energy Index (Dec 31st 2009 = 100) OVERALL SUMMARY: 12 Month Rolling The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 3% in March Energy Average Index Graph Data 31 October 2009 87.80 31 January 2009 92.10 Bord Gáis Energy Index 30 November 2009 87.15 12 Month Rolling Average as a return to milder weather following the 180 28 February 2009 87.77 severe conditions experienced in Continental 31 December 2009 88.29 31 March 2009 76.86 31 January 2010 88.92 30 April 2009 77.63 31 May 2009 30 June 2009 84.37 90.81 28 February 2010 31 March 2010 90.20 92.51 Europe in February put downward pressure 31 July 2009 31 August 2009 88.62 88.35 30 April 2010 95.31 on wholesale gas and electricity prices. 30 September 2009 85.76 31 May 2010 97.49 31 October 2009 92.39 30 June 2010 99.22 Falls in the average UK Day-ahead gas and 140 30 November 2009 94.82 Irish wholesale electricity were recorded 31 July 2010 101.09 31 December 2009 100.00 31 January 2010 99.62 31 August 2010 102.82 28 February 2010 103.17 30 September 2010 104.97 in March despite the dramatic news of Points 31 March 2010 104.57 31 October 2010 106.66 an uncontrolled gas leak at Total’s Elgin 30 April 2010 111.22 31 May 2010 110.49 30 November 2010 108.89 30 June 2010 111.64 platform in the North Sea towards the end 31 December 2010 111.88 31 July 2010 111.05 31 January 2011 114.76 31 August 2010 109.16 of the month. 100 30 September 2010 111.50 28 February 2011 117.91 31 October 2010 112.64 31 March 2011 121.41 30 November 2010 121.67 30 April 2011 124.45 31 December 2010 135.86 31 January 2011 134.21 31 May 2011 126.97 28 February 2011 140.96 30 June 2011 128.88 31 March 2011 146.51 31 July 2011 131.18 30 April 2011 147.76 31 May 2011 140.73 31 August 2011 133.64 60 30 June 2011 134.54 30 September 2011 135.59 31 July 2011 138.57 31 October 2011 137.54 31 August 2011 138.69 30 September 2011 134.89 31 November 2011 139.53 31 October 2011 136.14 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 31 December 2011 140.15 31 November 2011 143.88 31 January 2012 141.01 31 December 2011 143.22 31 January 2012 144.43 31 February 2012 142.38 31 February 2012 156.81 1 Mth -3% 3 Mth 7% 12 Mth 4% After two months of rising prices, the price of a barrel of oil finally stabilised in March at the relatively high monthly average price of $125 per barrel, as the markets focused less on the threat and potential impact of a military engagement between the West and Iran. During the month, the narrative subtly moved from one of imminent war and supply disruption, to the West’s ability to withstand a supply shock as attempts were made to reassure the markets that the world had adequate oil supplies to withstand the loss of Iranian crude. Concern continues to be voiced about the potential impact higher oil prices are having on consumer spending and inflation. A series of mixed economic releases and question marks about the strength of China’s economy also weighed on oil markets as traders consider the viability of the price of a barrel of Brent crude. Oil Index OIL Oil Graph After two months of rising prices, oil prices 180 Data 31 January 2009 28 February 2009 65.78 67.03 stabilised in March and traded consistently around $125 a barrel. With fewer reports 31 March 2009 68.43 30 April 2009 70.72 31 May 2009 85.34 30 June 2009 31 July 2009 90.70 92.57 and statements to stoke fears that a military engagement between the West and Iran was 31 August 2009 89.31 30 September 2009 86.74 140 31 October 2009 93.84 30 November 2009 31 December 2009 96.36 100.00 imminent, oil prices remained calm during 31 January 2010 94.62 the month. Points 28 February 2010 104.90 31 March 2010 112.38 30 April 2010 121.16 31 May 2010 30 June 2010 111.65 112.54 In previous months, oil prices had been 31 July 2010 110.19 pushed higher on fears that the world would 100 31 August 2010 108.17 have insufficient oil to meet its daily demand. 30 September 2010 111.13 31 October 2010 109.88 30 November 2010 121.18 31 December 2010 31 January 2011 130.36 135.62 These concerns had a weaker influence on prices in March as markets digested 28 February 2011 149.07 31 March 2011 152.09 30 April 2011 156.15 31 May 2011 149.41 claims that Saudi Arabia could increase oil 60 30 June 2011 142.55 production immediately if required and 31 July 2011 149.27 31 August 2011 146.57 30 September 2011 140.51 31 October 2011 31 November 2011 144.47 151.05 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 rumours that strategic reserves of oil were 31 December 2011 31 January 2012 152.25 155.87 to be released onto the world market. This *Index adjusted for currency movements. 31 February 2012 169.16 Data Source: ICE general confidence in future oil supplies was reflected in the decision by the US to allow oil-related sanctions to go ahead on 1 Mth 0% 3 Mth 11% 12 Mth 11% the belief that there is sufficient oil to fill the petroleum gap left by Iran. The markets also seem to have paused to consider the potentially negative impact of rising oil prices on future economic growth and the underlying strength of China’s economy following some negative economic releases and forecasts. G29839 BG Energy Index March 2012 Rev5 JJ.indd 2 11/04/2012 10:45
  • 3. Bord Gáis Energy Index MARCH 2012 Natural Gas Index NATURAL GAS In February, following the severe weather 250 Natural experienced in Europe and concerns over Gas Graph Data 31 January 2009 28 February 2009 195.04 156.23 Russian gas supplies, the average Day-ahead gas price rose 20%. These dramatic increases 31 March 2009 99.24 30 April 2009 92.78 proved temporary in nature and were reversed 31 May 2009 87.00 200 30 June 2009 87.56 31 July 2009 76.34 31 August 2009 30 September 2009 69.43 61.72 somewhat in March as the average March 31 October 2009 30 November 2009 77.55 83.21 Day-ahead price fell 11% when compared to February. Points 31 December 2009 100.00 31 January 2010 125.88 150 28 February 2010 114.44 A combination of weakening demand due to 31 March 2010 101.67 30 April 2010 106.04 31 May 2010 130.73 30 June 2010 31 July 2010 145.29 157.48 more seasonably mild weather (thus reducing 31 August 2010 30 September 2010 145.96 132.67 the need to burn gas to heat homes), healthy 100 supplies of gas from LNG terminals and imports 31 October 2010 148.57 30 November 2010 167.11 from Norway, and relatively high stock levels, all 31 December 2010 204.87 31 January 2011 188.31 28 February 2011 179.74 31 March 2011 30 April 2011 194.03 181.39 conspired to put downward pressure on prices. 31 May 2011 184.99 Despite the dramatic news of an uncontrolled 50 30 June 2011 183.36 31 July 2011 179.36 31 August 2011 30 September 2011 172.82 180.07 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 gas leak at Total’s Elgin platform in the North Sea toward the end of the month, prices failed 31 October 2011 180.16 31 November 2011 191.53 31 December 2011 189.94 31 January 2012 31 February 2012 184.35 221.68 *Index adjusted for currency movements. to react. Total are considering various options Data Source: Spectron Group to tackle the leak which could include taking six months to drill a relief well. A prolonged loss of gas throughout the summer should not be 1 Mth -11% 3 Mth 4% 12 Mth 2% a problem as supplies overall are sufficient to meet the reduced summer demand. Coal Index COAL European coal prices recovered slightly at the Coal Graph Data 260 end of March following months of subdued 31 January 2009 28 February 2009 102.58 93.02 activity and falling European prices. 31 March 2009 82.80 30 April 2009 78.58 Despite a late rally in prices toward the end 205 31 May 2009 76.19 30 June 2009 31 July 2009 76.68 81.48 of the month (which resulted in a $2 increase in the price of coal in the last week of March), 31 August 2009 84.15 30 September 2009 83.00 31 October 2009 86.26 30 November 2009 88.54 a bearish tone prevailed throughout the Points 31 December 2009 100.00 European/Atlantic market due to ample 150 31 January 2010 105.77 28 February 2010 95.28 supplies, high stockpiles, low demand for 31 March 2010 95.51 30 April 2010 108.11 31 May 2010 125.06 30 June 2010 31 July 2010 132.03 121.85 electricity and the beginning of spring and warmer weather. 31 August 2010 123.28 95 30 September 2010 121.29 31 October 2010 121.83 With Europe lacking an appetite for coal, 30 November 2010 150.34 31 December 2010 159.48 31 January 2011 148.31 28 February 2011 31 March 2011 149.34 153.91 supplies from the US and Colombia are now increasingly finding their way to the 30 April 2011 148.29 40 31 May 2011 145.75 Asian-Pacific region. As this region too is 30 June 2011 144.90 31 July 2011 147.62 31 August 2011 149.65 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 30 September 2011 31 October 2011 156.20 145.04 well supplied, regional prices of coal around the world continue to be soft. Given that 31 November 2011 142.82 31 December 2011 145.65 31 January 2012 134.66 *Index adjusted for currency movements. 31 January 2012 125.54 Data Source: ICE the world’s number one consumer of coal revised its GDP target to 7.5% (from 9-10% in the previous five years), the market will 1 Mth 1% 3 Mth -13% 12 Mth -18% be assessing any potential reduced Chinese demand will have on coal prices in the months ahead. Electricity Index Electricity Graph Data 180 ELECTRICITY 31 January 2009 28 February 2009 127.36 117.38 Irish wholesale electricity prices were 8% lower in March compared to February. 31 March 2009 89.56 30 April 2009 88.58 31 May 2009 82.33 30 June 2009 91.74 31 July 2009 83.00 A combination of lower gas (with the 140 31 August 2009 89.26 average monthly Day-ahead price falling 30 September 2009 87.28 31 October 2009 91.82 30 November 2009 93.65 11% in euro terms) and carbon (with the Points 31 December 2009 100.00 31 January 2010 105.32 average monthly price down approx 7% in 28 February 2010 98.50 31 March 2010 90.42 30 April 2010 93.24 31 May 2010 30 June 2010 105.19 104.88 the month) prices, put downward pressure 100 on wholesale electricity prices. 31 July 2010 106.05 31 August 2010 105.66 30 September 2010 109.05 31 October 2010 112.69 As the majority of electricity used in Ireland 30 November 2010 115.75 31 December 2010 136.21 31 January 2011 123.78 28 February 2011 31 March 2011 120.12 129.24 is produced by burning gas, internationally traded gas prices heavily influence Irish 30 April 2011 127.27 31 May 2011 118.10 30 June 2011 31 July 2011 31 August 2011 112.46 112.53 118.86 60 wholesale electricity prices. 30 September 2011 117.61 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 31 October 2011 114.14 31 November 2011 123.77 31 December 2011 119.63 31 January 2012 117.47 Data Source: SEMO 31 February 2012 125.14 1 Mth -8% 3 Mth -3% 12 Mth -10% G29839 BG Energy Index March 2012 Rev5 JJ.indd 3 11/04/2012 10:45
  • 4. Bord Gáis Energy Index MARCH 2012 FX Rates FX RATES 31 January 2009 EUR/USD 1.283 31 January 2009 EUR/GBP 0.887 Despite the euro hitting a 16 month low 1.60 28 February 2009 31 March 2009 1.272 1.323 28 February 2009 31 March 2009 0.886 0.925 of 1.27 versus the US Dollar on the 16th of 30 April 2009 1.321 30 April 2009 31 May 2009 0.894 0.874 January, the currency rebounded to close at 1.33 versus the US Dollar at the end of 31 May 2009 1.412 30 June 2009 0.853 1.40 30 June 2009 1.405 31 July 2009 0.853 31 July 2009 31 August 2009 1.424 1.434 31 August 2009 30 September 2009 0.881 0.914 February. These gains were maintained in 30 September 2009 31 October 2009 1.464 1.474 31 October 2009 30 November 2009 0.896 0.913 March and the exchange rate finished the 1.20 30 November 2009 31 December 2009 1.498 1.433 31 December 2009 31 January 2010 0.888 0.867 month at 1.33. 28 February 2010 0.893 Confidence in the euro was supported 31 January 2010 1.389 31 March 2010 0.891 28 February 2010 1.360 1.00 by positive comments from the Italian 30 April 2010 0.868 31 March 2010 1.353 31 May 2010 0.846 30 April 2010 1.327 Prime Minister who believes that the euro 30 June 2010 0.819 31 May 2010 1.230 31 July 2010 0.831 30 June 2010 1.226 area’s woes are ‘almost over’ and that a 31 August 2010 0.827 31 July 2010 1.305 0.80 30 September 2010 0.866 1.269 solution to Greece’s challenges is almost 31 August 2010 31 October 2010 0.869 30 September 2010 1.362 30 November 2010 0.837 accomplished. This tone contrasted sharply 31 October 2010 1.392 31 December 2010 0.857 30 November 2010 1.304 31 January 2011 0.854 0.60 31 December 2010 31 January 2011 1.337 1.370 28 February 2011 31 March 2011 0.849 0.883 with a warning from the Federal Reserve 28 February 2011 31 March 2011 Jan-09 1.379 1.419 Apr-09 30 April 2011 Jul-09 31 May 2011 Oct-09 0.888 Jan-10 0.874 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Chairman Ben Bernanke who warned that 30 April 2011 1.483 30 June 2011 31 July 2011 0.903 0.875 ‘it’s far too early to declare victory’. 31 May 2011 1.437 31 August 2011 0.885 30 June 2011 31 July 2011 1.451 1.438 30 September 2011 31 October 2011 0.860 0.8615 The cautionary tone struck in the US 31 August 2011 30 September 2011 1.441 1.345 31 November 2011 0.8562 was echoed in the UK where the Bank of 1 Mth 0% 3 Mth 3% 12 Mth -6% EURUSD 31 December 2011 0.8334 31 October 2011 31 November 2011 1.395 1.3446 31 January 2012 31 February 2012 0.8302 0.8372 England’s Governor said that while the 31 December 2011 1.2961 ECB’s long-year loans created a window of 1 Mth 31 January 2012 31 January 2012 -1% 1.3084 1.3325 3 Mth 0% 12 Mth -6% EURGBP opportunity, it remains to be seen whether euro zone area officials will use the time to tackle the problems. MARKET OUTLOOK: Oil prices, having stabilised in March, will continue to be driven by events as they unfold between the West and Iran. Iran’s reaction to ongoing sanctions could set the tone for the markets in April. Should reported meetings occur between the leaders that defuse the situation, we should see prices ease back. A continued risk premium in the price of a barrel of oil will mean that institutions and politicians will be concerned about the impact higher energy costs is having on inflation, especially given the fragile state of the global economy. Economic releases from the world’s top two economies will be watched closely for evidence of growth in the US and a soft landing in China. In terms of gas prices, the weather, deliveries of gas, particularly of LNG cargos to the UK, and the markets assessment of the impact of the loss of gas due to the closure of the Elgin platform, will drive prices. RE-WEIGHTING OF BORD GÁIS ENERGY INDEX: Following the SEAI’s 2009 review of energy consumption in Ireland, released in Q4 2010, there was a 9.3% drop in overall Oil 64.93% energy consumption. The most notable drop of 1.39% was in oil consumption in the form of gasoline and diesel. This reflects the economic downturn experienced at the time. The share of natural Gas gas and electricity increased by 0.63% and 0.57% respectively. An 13.52% increase in the use of renewables and peat, at the expense of coal in electricity generation was also observed. As a result the Bord Gáis Energy Index has been reweighted to reflect the latest consumption Electricity Coal data. This has had a minimal effect on the overall shape of the Index, 18.40% 3.16% but may indicate future trends. For more information please contact: Fleishman-Hillard — Aidan McLaughlin — 085 749 0484 Bord Gáis Energy — Christine Heffernan — 087 050 5555 Disclaimer: The contents of this report are provided solely as an information guide. The report is presented to you “as is” and may or may not be correct, current, accurate or complete. While every effort is made in preparing material for publication no responsibility is accepted by or on behalf of Bord Gáis Eireann, the SEMO, ICE Futures Europe, the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland or Spectron Group Limited (together, the “Parties”) for any errors, omissions or misleading statements within this report. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or liability accepted by any of the Parties or any of their respective directors, employees or agents in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report. Each of the Parties and their respective directors, employees or agents does not and will not accept any liability in relation to the information contained in this report. Bord Gáis Eireann reserves the right at any time to revise, amend, alter or delete the information provided in this report. G29839 BG Energy Index March 2012 Rev5 JJ.indd 4 11/04/2012 10:45