1. future 2.0 ?
generations
myths, beliefs, religions, philosophies,
technology and its use
added value and its sharing ... by Homo Sapiens

2. Are we going to
experience a major
disrupt within human
societies ?

3. • there are those who think the answer to this is “yes”
• there are those who think the answer is “no”,
because they really want to be able to keep their
power / turnovers / margins
• there are those who think “yes”, but do not want to
see that happen (let us keep our ways / uses /
power / turnover / margins…)
• there are those who say “we’ve already done it in
the past, it didn’t work…”
• there are those who want ‘to merchandise
everything’ in 1.0, 2.0, etc…
• there are those who are not in the know
• there are those who…

4. agenda
I -
The backdrop of our immediate future
II -
Towards a new intermediation?
High Speed Internet and 2.0 tools:
‘Barbarians versus Emperors’.
III - New weak signals
IV - Some tips on how to ‘survive’ ???

5. 2 preliminary
comments
• Generation problems
• Concept of «Singularity»

6. Generation problems
• 2 generation categories: “native analogics”, and
“native digitals”. They were not born with same
technologies, therefore do not have the same
uses (lynchpin year 1980)
• There are also the e-immigrants (analogic
emigrating towards digital)
• Changes in technology triggers change in
behavior, actually you can’t flip that round…

7. Point of Singularity?
• Like in astrophysics, humanity will
experience a “point of singularity”
• Our future will probably not be a linear
extrapolation of our immediate past…
• It will probably be something else…

8. Last but not least...
• Do not forget that the Homo Sapiens
“Operating System” is bugged
• It is an interest-driven OS…
• Hence, value-added sharing through the ages has
never been a fair deal…

9. I – What our immediate
future will look like ?
• Future is very important, we’re going to spend
an awful lot of time in there…

10. Short story of the
Universe
• 13.7 billion years ago: Big Bang. ! Why? We don’t
really know.
• 118 physical elements (Mendeleev’s table) were
born in the atomic furnaces of the stars…

11. A short story of life
• Our small solar system – including Earth – was
born 4.5 billion years ago in our small galaxy
• The first life forms appear on Earth 3.5 billion
years ago (amino acids - panspermia? Miller -
Oparin experiments…)
• Emerging from a 600 million-year-old original
soup… and Evolution hits the road…
• Homo Sapiens makes his appearance…

12. Short story of
Humanity
• we appeared some 100.000 years ago in Eastern
Africa
• we bred on Earth, not all too quickly, as this
took a long time: hunting, fruit and vegetable
picking…
• we kept picking… sick nasty fights (1515,
Charles Martel beats the Mohicans at
Sebastopol)
• besides nothing much happened… EXCEPT…

13. … a couple of major
technological breakthroughs
• the agricultural revolution (1.0) 10.000 years
ago in the Fertile Crescent
• the industrial revolution (2.0) 250 years ago in
England
• between the 1.0 and the 2.0, around 1450,
invention of the Information Society with the
Gutenberg Bible
• and… the third one (3.0?) which is just
starting… and does not have a name yet

14. Why these revolutions?
• From tools...
• To technology...
• Through Science... (positive and negative
feedback loops)
• In a context of low-cost energy (slavery,
fossil energies)
These trigger differences (habits / generations)...

15. Each revolution
bringing wealth…
• mass production of proteins in the 1.0
(therefore population increase)
• mass production (products and services) in the
2.0 (therefore improved standard of living)
• … and a paradigm shift : change in political,
social, economic organizations…
• value-added sharing still unfair, problem not
solved!

16. 3rd revolution causes?
• Nanotechnologies
• Humanoïd robots and others
• Synthetic biology (genomics...)
• Greentech (renewable energies)

17. nanotechnologies
• From large masses of material to the direct use
of atoms… in the processing
• From top down to bottom up… meaning : are
we seeing the end of industrial processes which
are going the other way around?

18. A few free web resources
• Richard Feynman
• Molecular machines
• Wikipedia
• Many others...

19. Humanoïd robots
• Why humanoïd robots?
• Japanese strategy : population growing old,
refusal of other homo sapiens immigration.
Service, telepresence, and working robots
• Replace low qualification homo sapiens
jobs by two- or no-legged robots
(Foxconn)

20. Some web resources
• Asimo by Honda
• Big dog by Boston Dynamics
• Robotised human body parts: Myomo
Towards bionics?
• Impact of robot uses on homo sapiens
employment?
• Moravec curve
• Many others...

21. greentech
• Programmed end of fossil energy
• Rise of the renewable energy
• Industrialized economies will have to
address these changes. Will they be efficient
at tackling changes?
• Silicon Valley key role

22. Many possibilities
• Eolian, solar panels, hydraulics, etc…
• But the future belongs to photosynthesis (based
on the fact that plants get 99% of their energy
from sunlight)

23. Some web resources
• Nanosolar: photovoltaic panels containing
nanotechs (Google)
• E-fuel:garbage in-house energy by using your
home
create
• Solar Revolution Project : artificial ‘leaves’ that
produce electricity
• Sun Catalytix : reproducing the process of
photosynthesis

24. Synthetic biology
• DNA : a base-4 system (computer : base-2 or
binary system)
• Complete sequencing of the human genome
already carried out, synthesis in progress
• Improving ‘the existing living material’?
• Creating new ‘living material’?

25. Cost of DNA
sequencing

26. Some web resources
• 23 and me
• Cost by genome
• A real mouse from scratch (asexual
reproduction)
• Understand DNA
• Many others…

27. Going towards a 3rd
revolution ?
• Nanos + robots + bio + green =
breakthrough?
• Improved Homo sapiens?
• Highly ‘intelligent’ robot sapiens
• Let’s not forget the Internet, High Speed
Internet + various 2.0 tools...
Other technologies means other uses for them...

28. Therefore new
organizations…
• Economics, society, politics…
• New elites...
• In the next 30 years…

29. II - new intermediations
• How does our 1.0 economic system work?
• Which technologies make it work?
• High Speed Internet (Broadband) + 2.0 Web
tools : quid?

30. How does our economy
work?
• Since the 1.0 Revolution, same global organization,
namely…
• Supply (products, services created by entreprises)
• Demand (consumers want to buy products,
services)
• Intermediaries (make the supply match locally
the demand - or establish the rules and laws)

31. • An organization and a system both implemented
on the basis of a bunch of technologies…
• … that is highly contingent on chosen time-
frame
• If not so : no market, no social organization, no
politics, etc…

32. Industrial revolution
technologies
• Analogic (television, radio, corded phones, etc.)
• Print (newspapers, magazines, catalogues…)
• Fossil energy (electrical grid, spark-ignition
engine, etc.)
• Road networks, railways, ...
• Local store, school, office
• Etc.

33. consequences…
• Technologies of the agricultural revolution
involve a pyramidal organization that is still
prevailing after the industrial revolution
• … with an elite… on the top
• … and the rest… underneath
• Pareto's 80/20 Principle (20% of the population
controls 80% of the wealth)

34. intermediation between
supply and demand
• is using traditional analogic technologies
• is customer-confusing (lacking transparency)
• is expensive (price 3 to 5 times higher than the
ex-works one : distribution, marketing, ads costs)
…
• How can we reorganize the whole thing??

35. The 5 types of
intermediaries
• Market
• Information
• Finance
• Operators
• Elected officials in representative democracy

36. Example of a traditional chain
of value: music (market type)
• Supply : the author of the music
• Demand: consumers
• “Horizontal” intermediaries

37. 1.0 horizontal
intermediaries
• The editor (recording, marketing, promoting...)
• The CD presser (pressing, jacket printing)
• Logistics
• Physical distributors, CD’s available in stores…

38. Value-added sharing
• For 1 CD of 15 soundtracks, costing 15 €
• 7 € go to the editor
• 1 € goes to the CD presser
• 6 € go to the distributor
• …1 € goes to the artist

39. 1.0 ‘vertical’
intermediaries
• Information: promoting the artist (press, radio,
television)
• Finance: (purchase/sale of the product, copyright
fees - SACEM…)
• Regulation: elected representatives (copyright
law-making)

40. Comments
• The editor decides on what is good for the
consumer (pyramidal organization with the elite
at the top : the elite takes all the decisions)
• Typically, the consumer wishes to purchase one
soundtrack only (aggressive marketing strategy, in
order to force the rest of the soundtracks on
the consumer?)
• the horizontal + vertical chain do cost money!

41. Are people happy with this organization, or
do they wish otherwise?
• “Hacking”: Napster, Kazaa, Bittorrent…
• Liberal governments answers with Hadopi
• Apple makes a breakthrough with iPod and
iTunes
• Megaupload, etc…
• Music streaming services make their appearance
(spotify, mioozic)
• Towards global licensing?
• Yet another breakthrough : Facebook…

42. new technologies
• Broadband (fiber optic) and wireless (wifi,
wimax, 4G, etc.)
• 2.0 web tools

43. Cable HSI: FTTH
(optic Fiber To The Home)
• Asia on top of the world !
• Update on the Obama National Broadband Plan
• Kansas City : Google: 1Giga/s symetric for free for
650.000 homes !
• What about Europe, what about France?? Hmm…
• Towards new uses: E-health platform, interactive
3D, virtual worlds…

44. wireless...
• 4G wireless is complementary to FTTH (home
and all-mobile technology)
• Massive use of smartphones, iPad and tablets
• The Web is becoming more accessible by
portable and wireless devices
• Towards new uses (wireless medicine, social
networking through car number plates, etc.)

45. Web 2.0 tools in bulk
• Blogs and RSS flows…
• Video platforms (youtube, dailymotion, vimeo…)
• Social networks (Linkedin, Facebook) and virtual
worlds (Linden Lab, Altadyn)…
• Microblogging : Twitter and alii. An ecosystem is
born…

46. • Collaborative videconferencing platforms
(telepresence, webOconferencing)
• “Virtual tradeshow” platforms
• E-reputation calculation…
• Software as a service platform (SaaS) and
cloud computing as a commodity
• Etc.

47. Some web resources
• Telepresence here and here
• Virtual tradeshows platform : inXpo (comdex
reborn in virtual reality), Altadyn, ...
• Many, many other things…

48. Towards a new international
economic order?

49. Comments
• The demand (people) is able to publish content on
the Web 2.0 (Web 1.0 did not allow Web users to
add or modify information contained in Web sites)
• de facto questioning of traditional intermediation
roles : towards short circuit?
• From a pyramidal structure of control and
domination (elite 1.0) to a 2.0 “flat” world…
• How about offer? Nanotechnology applications are
one thing…

50. • … the other thing is 3D printing: will we just
print out the stuff we need at home? Would
that mean the end of the consumer society?
• 3D bio printing, producing cool stuff in biology.
Who will be the winner of the game? Big
Pharma 1.0 or “biohackers”?
• Etc.

51. so what ?
• Ibn Kaldoun : emperors versus barbarians...
• In each intermediary type, typically the
‘emperors’ have built their empire using
traditional technologies.
• 2.0 Web technologies enable the
‘barbarians’ (start-ups) to take their
revenge…
• Therethe road, but few bumps (bubbles)
along
have been a
today…

52. Some web resources
• P2P platforms: Frindsclear (credit), mymajor
company (music), twilio (cloud telephony)…
• Self-publishing platform of “print” books and e-
books: lulu.com, blurb.com… or electronics…
• Etc.

53. The whole economic,
social, administrative and
political system seems to
be re-organized by an
«invisible e-hand»…

54. The Internet will play the same
role between the 2 nd and the 3rd
revolution
as printing did between the 1 st
and 2 nd revolution…
but with much more impact,
in a lot less time …

55. III – Weak signals, in recent
years and for the next
10 years?…
• Cloud computing
• SIRI-zation of the economy
• Domotics (smart home technologies and
home automation systems)
• Payment processing
• Near Field Communication (NFC) economy
• Etc…

56. • Cloud computing: physicians, local
collectivities… high impact on
administrative cost reduction and
information exchange between different
silo’s…

57. • Is a SIRI-revolution taking place? (Apple’s
SIRI, xbrainsoft)… SIRI, The vocal interface
in our everyday lives?

58. • Smart home technologies. New sensors-
equipped microprocessors… Machine-to-
machine market (M2M Market)… Energy
management, wireless medicine, etc.

59. • Alternative payment processing,
online payment without a credit card:
Dwolla

60. • The importance of proximity-based
organizations in economy, empowered by
Near Field Communication (NFC)
technologies.

61. III. Here’s how to survive and
thrive
Be on the lookout for information:
Sun Tzu, “The Art of War”:
The general who wins a battle is the best
informed …

62. The First Must-Do
• Keep Yourself Informed and…
• Keep Yourself Informed and…
• Keep Yourself Informed…

63. How to keep yourself
informed?
• yourversion.com
• zyte on iPad
• tweetdeck (Tweeter)
• My blog, my Facebook wall, my tweets…
• Etc.

64. The Second Must-Do
• Keep yourself trained and…
• Keep yourself trained and…
• Keep yourself trained...

65. How to keep yourself
trained?
• Create a local webschool...
Example: Lippi industry company...
• Attend more than 100 training sessions
• The classes will be given by specialists, having
the expertise you need (photo, blog, video,
Search Engine Optimization, e-trade...) or
other persons...
• Anyone can attend...

66. The Third Must-Do
• Test and…
• Test and…
• Test...

67. How to Test?
• Create an internal workshop open to all
employees
• Arrange for startups to do a public
presentation and ask for audience reaction
and opinion...
• Make a prototype...
• Etc.

68. What else? Let’s see…
France 2.0: Work In Progress (who’s
gonna stop it?)
• Countless startups… everywhere in France
(from the North Pas-de-Calais to ‘La
Réunion’). How many of them?
• They reorganize our entire economic
system and some of them are world-class
‘specialized Google’ (fotolia, wearecloud,
smartsy, etc.)

69. • This is just a start: our 1.0 elites are very busy
trying to keep their eyes and ears shut
(succeed or die trying?)
• In France, heads are bursting with new ideas.
The global digital economy is getting in gear,
this country can have a good market share…
• However, in order to achieve this…

70. • France needs to deploy its Broadband
Network (FTTH, 4G…)
• Our startups will create broadband apps,
because that's what it's all about…
• French Broadband-enabled applications will
be sold worldwide, when other countries
deploy their own HSI network
• otherwise… we’ll be doomed to e-death
and damned in e-Hell…

71. An ardent anticipatory
obligation…
• In five 5 years’ time, France will have
deployed its Broadband national network
• In ten years’ time, French 1.0 administration
will have shifted to 2.0 administration

72. …and don’t forget
that…
• web 3.0 is on its way…
• Genomics and digital care combine for
healthcare
• Consequences? Some say that…

74. • How about redefining retirement age?

76. Thanks for your
attention!

77. So, good luck guys...
and ‘just do it’

78. Jean Michel Billaut
Elu Personnalité Numérique par l'Acsel
Voted Digital Personality of the Year 2010 by the
French Association of Digital Economy ACSEL
Président Fondateur de l'Atelier BNP Paribas
Founder and President of BNP Paribas Digital Lab
email : jmbillaut@yahoo.fr
blog : http://billaut.typepad.com