Overview presentation on Scenario Mapping, a methodology that combines "simulated hindsight" with "highly prepared meetings" Scenario Mapping is fractal: can be applied to large companies, business units, markets, products, etc.

1. Scenario Mapping:
Knowledge-based Processes
For Actionable Scenarios
Robert Weber, Ph.D.
Managing Director
Strategy Kinetics, LLC
Mobile: 617-308-3336 Fax: 617-812-0443
Weber@StrategyKinetics.com
www.strategykinetics.com
Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC 1

2. What Is Scenario Mapping?
A highly interactive scenario planning process
A form of “simulated hindsight”
Workshops are “highly prepared,” structured
meetings
Has been used in nearly 100 strategic planning
engagements in G1000 companies, government,
education, and trade associations
Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

3. Problems Addressed By Scenario Mapping
Complexity
Competing points of view
Different people know different parts of the
problem
Intra- (and inter-) organizational politics
Alternatives, NOT forecasts, predictions
Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

4. Scenario Mapping Terminology
Endstate A
Endstate: a brief description of an extreme, but
plausible future
Event: a hypothetical occurrence at a specific 70 MPG Mandated
point in the future. -------------------------
-------------------------
2011 ±
------------------------
------------------------
Scenario: a narrative describing the actors,
A long time ago
drivers, motives, and key events that lead from there was a dkjld
kdjls k --- --- ---- ----
the present to a particular Endstate. --------------------------
--------------------------
----------
Endstate System: A graphical or Visual Language
representation of Endstate relationships
Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

5. Why Use Scenarios?
Planning as Forecasting Planning With Uncertainty
Х A forecast points to a There are many possible
single future outcomes
Х Uncertainty incorporated Scenarios embrace
by adjusting the forecast uncertainty
+10
%
-10%
NOW
NOW NOW
NOW
Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

6. Endstates
Written as if the future has already
Endstate D
happened
Endstate C
Each reflects the outcome of
diverse forces Endstate B
Intentionally divergent visions of the Endstate A
future
Time horizon industry or problem
specific
5 years – computing and
–
communications
40 years – global climate destruction
–
60 years – forest products
–
Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

7. Events
“Cold Fusion” Water
Heaters Commercially
Are specific observable
occurrences that could happen Available
At least one company is offering Cold
2014 ±
Fusion devices to heat water in the home.
Crude Oil Hits $1
Reflect underlying drivers and
8 0 P er
forces B ar r el
Human “Bird Flu”
Incorporate many competing
Vaccine Plant
issues and interests, for example:
Contaminated 2015 ±
Government
–
Markets and economies
–
Political, social, & cultural factors
– The manufacturing
plant of one of two
major producer of
influenza vaccine
Technological innovations for
– the US market wa
2 01 2 ±
s found to be
contaminated. This
means that only
National, International, Regional
– half the amount of
vaccine that includ
es
protection against
the deadly
“bird flu” will be av
ailable in
the US Market.
Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

8. Each Team Identifies Must Happen Events
Endstate C
Endstate B
Endstate A
Endstate D
A red slash indicate a Must Not
Happen event
NOW
NOW
Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

9. A Scenario Is Story With A Plot
About Actors, Motives, Forces, Drivers, etc.
Endstate C
Endstate B
Endstate A
A long time ago
there was a dkjld kdjls kidkd
Once upon a time jdkdllsk j djdkd ldnzn9 jdkiie
there was a dkjld kdjls kidkd
ieuieo seksll ld
jdkdllsk j djdkd ldnzn9 jdkiie
-------------------------------
ieuieo seksll ld
In the beginning
Endstate D
-------------------------------
-------------------------------
there was a dkjld kdjls kidkd
jdkdllsk j djdkd ldnzn9 jdkiie -------------------------------
-------------------------------
ieuieo seksll ld
-------------------------------
-------------------------------
-------------------------------
-------------------------------
From its inception,
there was a dkjld kdjls kidkd
jdkdllsk j djdkd ldnzn9 jdkiie
ieuieo seksll ld
-------------------------------
-------------------------------
NOW
NOW -------------------------------
A scenario is NOT a list of events
Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

10. Common Events Appear In A Majority Of
Scenarios
Endstate C
Endstate B
Endstate A
Endstate D
More participants have a stake in
NOW
NOW Common Events and will therefore
pay more attention to these Events
Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

11. Unique Events Appear In Only One Scenario
Endstate C
Endstate B
Endstate A
Endstate D
Scenarios that depend on many Unique
NOW
NOW Events may be high risk, but also high
reward
Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

12. Endstate Systems Suggest Possible Relationships
All scenarios exist in parallel ―
Binary possibilities ― either / or
different constituencies,
geographic regions, political
allies, etc.
or
Time matters ―
evolutionary possibilities
One scenario / alignment dominates
Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

13. Principal Scenario Mapping Workshop Steps
Conventional Endstate Endstate Actions /
Wisdom Defense Systems Policies
Scenario
If you want to For each Consideration Action plans
change how Endstate, an of how and
people think, analysis and Endstates responsibilities
you first have narrative might be are key
to show them indicating related (or not) workshop
how they what it would outputs
think. take to get
there
Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

14. Project Steps And Post Workshop Alternatives
Implement
Action Items
Typical Project Steps
“War Room” /
Environment
Optional
Monitoring
Post
Interviews / Materials
Workshop Workshop
Data Collection Preparation Steps
Publish
Results
Repeat For
Others
Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

15. Scenario Mapping Differentiators & Advantages
Scenario-enabled strategies
Not a prediction or forecast
–
Discards the idea of a “most likely” future
–
Explores various possibilities and their implications
–
Empowers participants to work toward their “best” future
–
Incorporates knowledge, biases, and beliefs across diverse
stakeholder and policy groups
Incorporates rather than minimizes uncertainty
Provides a basis for dynamic, iterative strategic decision-
making
The ability to learn and act faster increases the likelihood of
success over the long term
Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

16. Strategy Kinetics Can Help Your Organization
Contact us today to find out how Strategy
Kinetics can help your organization:
• Anticipate the future of your organization,
markets, product categories, etc.
• Choose among alternative outcomes and
strategies
• Develop a detailed implementation plan
Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

17. Contact Information
Robert Weber, Ph.D.
Managing Director,
Strategy Kinetics, LLC
Mobile: 617-308-3336 Fax: 617-812-0443
Weber@StrategyKinetics.com
www.strategykinetics.com
Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC