- OCL India Ltd is an Indian cement manufacturer that is well positioned to benefit from increased infrastructure development in East India under the new government.
- OCL recently expanded its cement grinding capacity to 6.7 MTPA, which is expected to drive revenue growth of 26% annually through FY16 as utilization increases.
- The company has operating efficiencies from a captive power plant, limestone reserves, and coal linkages that have enabled margins comparable to industry leaders. The analyst initiates coverage with a buy recommendation and target price implying 91% upside.
1. OCL India Ltd.
BUY
- 1 of 17 - Tuesday 15
th
July, 2014
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STOCKPOINTER
Target Price `536 CMP `280 FY16E EV/EBITDA 5.0x
Index Details OCL India Ltd (OCL) is well poised to benefit from the focused
emphasis of the newly elected government on infrastructural
development in East India. In line with this emphasis, OCL’s timing
of hiking cement grinding capacity to 6.7 MTPA in March 2014 could
not have been better. With the expanded capacity, we expect OCL to
report healthy revenue 2 year CAGR of 26% to `3067 crore and PAT
growth of 65% to `292 crore by FY16E. We initiate coverage on OCL
as a BUY with a Price Objective of `536 representing a potential
upside of ~91% over a period of 18 months. At the CMP of `280, the
stock is trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.7x FY16E and at an
EV/Tonne of cement sold in FY16 of $60 ($42 EV/Tonne of capacity).
The replacement cost currently is in the range of US$120-140 per
tonne.
Our optimism regarding the company’s prospects is based on the
following:
OCL has operations in cement-deficit East India region (2
plants in Odisha, 1 in West Bengal) thus enjoying higher
realizations than the pan India average. Further, with the Modi
led government’s focused emphasis on all round development
of this region, OCL is well poised to capture the increased
demand potential.
OCL has recently expanded its capacity from 5.4 MTPA to 6.7
MTPA by setting up a 1.35 MTPA Greenfield capacity in West
Bengal. The expanded capacity and higher utilizations of the
existing plants will help drive revenue growth going forward.
We expect OCL’s revenues to grow at a 2 year CAGR of 26% to
`3067 crore by FY16, driven by 20% growth in cement
volumes.
Operating efficiencies in the form of captive power plant,
limestone reserves, coal linkage and lower freight costs have
enabled the company post operating margins comparable to
industry heavyweight such as Ultratech, ACC and Ambuja.
With favorable demand conditions, higher realizations and
higher consumption of captive power, we expect OCL’s
EBITDA margin to expand to 20.5% in FY16 from 15.8% in
FY14.
Sensex 25,229
Nifty 7,527
BSE 100 7,628
Industry Cement
Scrip Details
Mkt Cap (` cr) 1,592
BVPS (`) 202
O/s Shares (Cr) 5.7
Av Vol (Lacs) 0.1
52 Week H/L 320/104
Div Yield (%) 1.5
FVPS (`) 2.0
Shareholding Pattern
Shareholders %
Promoters 74.9
DIIs 0.1
FIIs 0.4
Public 24.5
Total 100.0
OCL vs. Sensex
Key Financials (` in Cr)
Y/E Mar
Net
Sales
EBITDA PAT
EPS
(`)
EPS Growth
(%)
RONW
(%)
ROCE
(%)
P/E
(x)
EV/EBITDA
(x)
2013 1,849 421 159.3 28.0 627.0 14.9 9.7 5.1 3.2
2014 1,944 306 107.2 18.8 -32.8 9.3 15.3 9.8 5.2
2015E 2,550 454 166.3 29.2 55.2 12.8 24.5 9.7 4.4
2016E 3,067 629 291.9 51.3 75.5 18.6 18.3 5.5 2.7
2. - 2 of 17- Tuesday 15
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July, 2014
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Higher than expected ramp-up in utilization of the new capacity in West Bengal
and/or in its existing facilities and higher than expected expansion in EBITDA
margins owing to demand uptick are upside triggers to our Price Objective.
Advantageous location in cement deficit East India
Historically, East India has been a cement and limestone deficit region with the
deficit demand being met from the South and the Central cement clusters. Hence,
the utilizations and realizations in the region have been higher than the historical
pan-India average. With the Modi led government’s focused emphasis on all round
development of the East and North East India, these clusters will continue to be
attractive markets for cement manufacturers. With its recently expanded capacity,
OCL is well poised to benefit from the potential demand boost from this region.
Capacity expansion and operating efficiencies to propel
growth
OCL, in March 2014, has commissioned a 1.35 MTPA Greenfield capacity in West
Bengal at an investment of ` 525 crore, funded at a debt-equity ratio of 2:1. With the
expansion, the total grinding capacity of OCL stands at 6.7 MTPA with a clinker
capacity of 2.9 MTPA. The expanded capacity will help OCL achieve a healthy
revenue growth in FY15-16E. We expect volumes to increase at a two year CAGR of
20% and realizations to grow at 6% during the same period.
OCL enjoys operating efficiencies through captive limestone reserves, coal linkages
and a 54 MW captive power plant. We expect OCL’s PAT to grow at a 2 year CAGR
of 65% to ` 292 crore in FY16 led by healthy revenue growth and expansion in
EBITDA margins. PAT margin is expected to expand to 9.5% in FY16 from 5.5% in
FY14. We expect EPS to more than double to ` 51.3 in FY16 from ` 18.8 in FY14.
Valuation
We initiate coverage on OCL as a BUY with a Price Objective of `536 representing a
potential upside of ~91% over a period of 18 months. At the CMP of `280, the stock
is trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.7x FY16E and at an EV/Tonne of cement
sold in FY16 at $60 ($42 EV/Tonne of cement capacity). The Price Objective is
derived by applying a EV/EBITDA multiple of 5x on FY16E EBITDA of `629 crore.
The replacement cost currently is in the range of US$120-140 per tonne. Higher
than expected ramp-up in utilization of the new capacity in West Bengal and/or in its
existing facilities and expansion in EBITDA margin with demand uptick are upside
triggers to our price objective.
3. - 3 of 17- Tuesday 15
th
July, 2014
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Company Background
OCL India Ltd, earlier known as Orissa Cement Ltd, is a leading cement
manufacturer in Eastern India. OCL, incorporated in 1950-51, has grown from a
500 TPD capacity to a ~18500 TPD capacity in 2014. The grinding capacity of
6.7 MTPA is backed by a 2.9 MTPA clinker capacity and a 54 MW captive power
plant. Major end-markets are Odisha, Bihar and West Bengal, with around half of
cement revenues stemming from Odisha. Cement sales (sold under the brand,
‘Konark’) constituted 86% of the revenues, while sales from the refractory
division accounted for the remaining. OCL India is promoted by the Dalmia
group; Dalmia Cement (Bharat) has a 48% stake in OCL India.
Dalmia Bharat Group Structure
85%15% 100%
74%26%
Adhunik
Cements
(100%)
Calcom
CementIndia
(76%)
Dalmia CementBharatLtd.
OCL India (48%)
FY14:Rs 1943
Cr
Bokaro
Cement
(74%)
Cement
FY14:Rs 1,686Cr
Primarily,Portland
Slag Cement(PSC)
Key markets: Odisha
Biharand West
Bengal
Refractory
FY14:Rs 257 Cr
Primarily,Silica and
Castables;major
end-usein the steel
industry
Domestic and
exportpresence
Dalmia PowerLtd.
Dalmia Bharat Ltd.
(Holding Co; listed)
DCB PowerVentures
Kohlberg Kravis
Roberts'
Source: OCL , Ventura Research
4. - 4 of 17- Tuesday 15
th
July, 2014
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Key Investment Highlights
Advantageous location in cement deficit East India
OCL derives around half of its sales from Odisha. Historically, East India has been a
cement and limestone deficit region with the deficit demand being met from the
south and the central cement clusters. Hence, the utilizations and the realizations in
the region have been higher than the historical pan-India average. For instance,
prices in East are currently hovering around ` 340 per bag, as compared to pan
India average of ` 295 per bag.
The eastern region (Bihar, West Bengal and Chhattisgarh) is expected to witness an
addition of around 12 mn tones of capacities in FY15. However, we believe, with the
Modi led government’s focused emphasis on all round development of the East and
North East India, these clusters will continue to be attractive markets for cement
manufacturers. OCL, with a capacity share of 14% in FY14, is well poised to benefit
from the potential demand boost from this region.
OCL Facilities
Kapilas, Orissa 1.4 MTPA
Cement Grinding Capacity
Rajgangpur, Odisha 4 MPTA
Cement Grinding Capacity
and 54 MW Power plant
Medinipur, West
Bengal, 1.4 MTPA
cement grinding
capacity
Lanjiberna Limestone and
Dolomite Mine
Source: OCL , Ventura Research
5. - 5 of 17- Tuesday 15
th
July, 2014
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OCL earns majority of its revenues from Odisha
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
Bihar Odisha West Bengal Others
Source: OCL, Ventura Research
6. - 6 of 17- Tuesday 15
th
July, 2014
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Cement Industry prospects to improve
Pan India utilizations expected to improve Cement prices increase in May-June 2014
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
FY11
FY12
FY13F
FY14F
FY15E
FY16E
In MTPA
Capacity Production Consumption Utilisation
190
240
290
340
390
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
June2014
North Central East West South All India
Source: OCL, Ventura Research Source: OCL, Ventura Research
Utilisations to remain stable in North India
Surplus capacities to restrict utilizations to 60-
65% in the South
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
FY11 FY12 FY13P FY14F FY15E FY16E
In MTPA
Capacity Production
Consumption Capacity Utilisation (RHS)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
50
100
150
200
250
FY11 FY12 FY13P FY14F FY15E FY16E
In MTPA
Capacity Production
Consumption Capacity Utilisation (RHS)
Source: OCL, Ventura Research Source: OCL, Ventura Research
7. - 7 of 17- Tuesday 15
th
July, 2014
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Capacity expansion to propel revenue growth
OCL had expanded its capacity from 2 MTPA to 5.35 MTPA in FY09. While there is
no expansion planned at its existing facilities in Odisha, it has commissioned a 1.35
MTPA Greenfield capacity in West Bengal at an investment of ` 525 crore, funded at
a debt-equity ratio of 2:1. With the expansion, the total grinding capacity of OCL
stands at 6.7 MTPA with a clinker capacity of 2.9 MTPA. The expanded capacity will
help OCL achieve a healthy revenue growth in FY15-16E.
A typical Greenfield capacity in a new market takes ~ 3 years to achieve a utilization
Utilizations to remain stable in cement deficit
Central India
Utilizations could pick up in the deficit Eastern
Region
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
FY11 FY12 FY13P FY14F FY15E FY16E
In MTPA
Capacity Production
Consumption Capacity Utilisation (RHS)
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
FY11 FY12 FY13P FY14F FY15E FY16E
In MTPA
Capacity Production
Consumption Capacity Utilisation (RHS)
Source: OCL, Ventura Research Source: OCL, Ventura Research
Utilisations to show marginal improvement in West
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
FY11 FY12 FY13P FY14F FY15E FY16E
In MTPA
Capacity Production
Consumption Capacity Utilisation (RHS)
Source: OCL, Ventura Research
8. - 8 of 17- Tuesday 15
th
July, 2014
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rate of 65% depending on the market conditions. However, given the fact that West
Bengal is already one of the key markets constituting around 20% of revenues, the
ramp-up of utilization in OCL’s plant is likely to be faster. We have assumed
conservative utilization levels of 40% in FY15 and 60% in FY16 in the recently
commissioned West Bengal plant. We expect utilization levels in the existing plants
to increase to 70%-75% in FY15-16 from an average of 65% in the past two years
with the anticipated demand growth in East and North East India. Consequently, we
expect volumes to increase at a two year CAGR of 20% and realizations to grow at
6% during the same period.
Captive power plant, limestone reserves and coal linkages
provide operating efficiencies
OCL enjoys operating efficiencies through captive limestone reserves, coal linkages
and a 54 MW captive power plant.
Captive limestone reserves are adequate for the foreseeable future:
Approximately 1.3 tonnes of limestone is required in the manufacturing of 1
tonne of cement. However, OCL manufactures the Portland Slag Cement
(~90% of sales) variety which is a blended cement with a composition of
45%-55% slag. Hence, the limestone requirement for OCL comes down to
0.7-0.8 tones per tonne of PSC. OCL’s current limestone requirements are
met entirely by its Lanjiberna Limestone and Dolomite mine having a reserve
life of 27 years. With annual approved mining quantity of 4 MTPA, the
reserves are sufficient to meet the requirements of the existing and expanded
capacity. For the West Bengal plant, clinker will be transported from the
existing unit in Odisha.
Captive Power Plants and coal linkages: OCL has set up a 54 MW thermal
based power plant for captive consumption. The first phase of 27 MW turned
operational in September 2011, while the second phase of 27 MW was
commissioned in April 2012. The power plant was set up at an investment of
~ ` 270 crore.
The company has 40% coal linkage from Mahanadi Coal Fields, 20% is
purchased at e-auction rates and the remaining requirement is imported. The
OCL Sales and Realisations trend
Cement FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E
Volumes ( in MTPA) 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 4.2 4.8
% growth -5.1% 5.0% 0.1% 27.3% 12.6%
Average Realisation per tonne 4054.2 4133.5 5056.3 5056.3 5290.1 5715.4
% growth 2.0% 22.3% 0.0% 4.6% 8.0%
Revenues ( in Rs Crore) 1354.1 1310.3 1683.7 1685.7 2245.3 2731.4
% growth -3.2% 28.5% 0.1% 33.2% 21.6%
Source: OCL , Ventura Research
9. - 9 of 17- Tuesday 15
th
July, 2014
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power plant is operating at optimum PLFs and meets OCL’s power
requirements. The power plant is located at the Rajgangpur plant which
meets 100% of its power requirements. From the Rajgangpur plant, power is
transported to OCL’s plant in Kapilas, Odisha, which fulfills ~80% of the
power requirements of the plant. Power for the West Bengal plant will be
purchased from the grid.
Freight Costs: With captive limestone quarry situated within 10-20 kms from
the kiln and the end markets at a distance of 350 kms from the plant
(industry average of 450-500 kms), the company’s freight cost as a
proportion of revenues is lower compared to peers.
Together, the benefits of captive limestone mines, power plant, coal linkages and
lower freight costs have resulted in similar operating margins as compared to the
large-sized peers.
RM high due to higher limestone cost in East Coal linkages enable savings in fuel costs
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
OCL Dalmia Bharat ACC Ambuja Ultratech
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
OCL Dalmia Bharat ACC Ambuja Ultratech
Source: OCL, Ventura Research Source: OCL, Ventura Research
Lower lead distance reduce freight costs EBITDA margin comparable to larger peers
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
19.0%
21.0%
23.0%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
OCL Dalmia Bharat ACC Ambuja Ultratech
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
OCL Dalmia Bharat ACC Ambuja Ultratech
Source: OCL, Ventura Research Source: OCL, Ventura Research
10. - 10 of 17- Tuesday 15
th
July, 2014
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Key Risks
Geographic concentration:
OCL’s revenues are concentrated in East India and hence it faces the risk of any
unforeseen events, both economic and natural, in the region. Further, given the
over-capacity situation in South India, many players have been pushing volumes into
the Eastern market, resulting in increased price competition for OCL. Further, if the
demand does not pick up as anticipated, coupled with the fact that 12 mn tones of
capacity is expected to be added in Central and East India in the next two years,
OCL could face severe margin pressure.
Coal costs:
OCL imports 40% of its coal requirements. Any adverse movement in coal prices will
hurt the company’s profitability.
11. - 11 of 17- Tuesday 15
th
July, 2014
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Financial Performance
OCL’s Q4FY14 revenues expanded 10.8% Y-o-Y to ` 538.6 crore led by pick-up in
volumes. It reported an EBITDA of ` 91.84 crore in Q4FY14; EBITDA margin
declined 100 bps to 17.1% in Q4FY14 owing to higher power and fuel costs and
selling expenses. However, higher other income led to a PAT growth of 31% Y-o-Y
to ` 41.6 crore in Q4FY14. PAT margin expanded 100 bps to 7.7% in Q4FY14.
Q4FY14 EPS stood at ` 7.32.
Financial Outlook
We expect OCL’s revenues to grow at a 2 year CAGR of 26% to ` 3067 crore driven
by 20% growth in cement volumes and 6% realization growth. The volume growth is
due to a) ramp up in utilization levels in the 1.35 MTPA West Bengal Greenfield
capacity which commenced production in March 2104. b) Increase in utilizations in
the existing plants in Odisha as we expect significant infrastructural development in
East India.
We expect the refractory division to grow at a steady 10% CAGR to ` 335 crore in
FY16 (12-13% of total revenues).
Quarterly Financial Performance (` in crore)
Particulars Q4FY14 Q4FY13 FY14 FY13
Net Sales 538.6 486.04 1855.5 1817.3
Growth % 10.8 2.1
Total Expenditure 446.78 396.93 1564.5 1400.7
EBIDTA 91.84 89.11 291.0 416.6
EBDITA Margin % 17.1 18.3 15.7 22.9
Depreciation 32.0 34.9 126.4 138.4
EBIT (EX OI) 59.8 54.3 164.6 278.2
Other Income 16.1 8.6 36.6 25.3
EBIT 75.9 62.8 201.2 303.5
Margin % 14.1 12.9 10.8 16.7
Interest 21.9 17.53 68.1 77.0
Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
PBT 54.0 45.3 133.1 226.4
Margin % 10.0 9.3 7.2 12.5
Provision for Tax 12.36 13.53 35.2 70.1
PAT 41.6 31.8 97.9 156.4
PAT Margin (%) 7.7 6.5 5.3 8.6
Source: OCL, Ventura Research
12. - 12 of 17- Tuesday 15
th
July, 2014
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OCL’s EBITDA margin dropped ~900 bps to 15.8% in FY14. The overall economic
slowdown resulted in flat volumes and realizations, while input costs continued to
rise resulting in a steep drop in EBITDA margins. As the demand outlook looks
bright, we expect margins to revert to 10 year historical mean of 20.5% in FY16E.
There is scope for further margin expansion given that in the previous up-cycle, OCL
reported a peak EBITDA margin of 28.3% in FY10.
We expect OCL’s PAT to grow at a 2 year CAGR of 65% to ` 292 crore in FY16 led
by healthy revenue growth and expansion in EBITDA margins. PAT margin is
expected to expand to 9.5% in FY16 from 5.5% in FY14. We expect EPS to more
than double to ` 51.3 in FY16 from ` 18.8 in FY14.
10 year historical EBITDA margin trend Revenues to grow; Margins to improve
10.0%
14.0%
18.0%
22.0%
26.0%
30.0%
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
Mean - (1) std dev EBITDA Mean Mean + (1) std dev
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E
Rs.Crore
Revenues EBITDA margin (RHS) PAT margin (RHS)
Source: OCL, Ventura Research Source: OCL, Ventura Research
EPS and Return ratios to improve Leverage to reduce
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E
in Rs
EPS RoE (RHS) RoCE (RHS)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E
in (x)
D/E Interest Coverage
Source: OCL, Ventura Research Source: OCL, Ventura Research
13. - 13 of 17- Tuesday 15
th
July, 2014
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Valuation
We initiate coverage on OCL as a BUY with a Price Objective of `536 representing a
potential upside of ~91% over a period of 18 months. At the CMP of `280, the stock
is trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.7x FY16E and at an EV/Tonne of cement
sold in FY16 at $60. The Price Objective is derived by applying a EV/EBITDA
multiple of 5x on FY16E EBITDA of `629 crore. The replacement cost currently is in
the range of US$120-140 per tonne. Also, in our opinion, margins have bottomed out
in FY13-14 and an improvement in profitability is imminent given the lucrative
markets serviced by OCL thus presenting a great opportunity to enter the stock.
Triggers to our Price Objective
Higher than expected ramp-up in utilization of the new capacity in West
Bengal and/or in its existing facilities
Higher than anticipated realization growth
Significant margin expansion with demand uptick
Valuation Methodology
Valuation
Target EV/EBITDA (x) 5.0
FY16 EBITDA ( Rs crs) 629.3
EV ( Rs crs) 3146.4
Debt ( Rs crs) 229.7
Cash ( Rs crs) 131.0
Market Cap (Rs crs) 3047.7
No. of Shares ( in Crs) 5.7
Target price 536
CMP 280.0
% upside 91%
Source: OCL, Ventura Research
OCL attractively valued
OCL Ltd Ultratech
Cement
ACC
Ambuja
Cements
Dalmia
Bharat
India
Cements
Shree
Cement
Heidelberg
Cement
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
0.5 50.5 100.5 150.5 200.5
ROE16E(%)
EV/tonne of Cement Capacity (in$ FY16E)
Source: OCL, Ventura Research