India Telecom Update 1

1. India Wireless Market Update –
1H,2010
BP Tiwari
bptiwari@beyond4g.org

2. Government plans to increase spectrum
usage charges for telecoms companies
planning to offer 3G services could negatively affect the
3G licensing process.
•Price war is possible with competition
intensifying, while consolidation may not be a far-off
reality
Strong mobile subscriber growth is
continuing, with the market benefiting from a healthy
competition.
• Mobile Market has seen investment from Singapore’s
SingTel, Vodafone of the UK, Telekom Malaysia, Norway’s
Telenor, Etisalat of the United Arab Emirates, Japan’s NTT
DoCoMo and Russia’s Sistema.
• Demand for mobile value-added services is strong and
expected to grow.
• Attractive Regulatory framework and Business
environment for telecoms sector investors; the government
Mobile market is still highly skewed
towards prepaid users;
•High Churn , low Prepaid ARPU and Duplicat SIMs
•delayed policy implementation in a number of areas
The government will cut license fees by up
to 33% for those operators whose services
cover over 95% of the residential areas in a calling
circle.
•Possibility of allowing MVNOs
•Large demand expected from content services and
mobile broadband services
•Possibility to convert Prepaid users to Postpaid
S W
T O
SWOT India Mobile Market

3. Fixed-line sector may decline at a more rapid rate
than envisaged, with potentially negative
consequences for ADSL growth.
•Danger that the development of IPTV services will
be hampered by high costs, low broadband usage
and slow speeds.
Broadband subscription growth is
strong, with the market registering almost a 42%
increase in subscribers in 2009.
• CAGR over 50% for next five year projected
• Av ialability of BWA spectrum with 3 operators
to fuel mobile broadband adoption.
The market for fixed telephone lines is
shrinking.
• Fixed-line market is dominated by state-owned
operators BSNL and MTNL. In rural India, BSNL
controls over 99% of the telephone infrastructure.
• 85 % of the market is DSL in India
Huge untapped market with only 2% of
the population in India has broadband
penetration .
• Allocation of BWA spectrum should fuel growth
and adoption in India
• 4G Technology like WiMAX and LTE to play bigger
role in bridging the gap of digital dividend.
• Growing workforce, house hold disposable, and
per capita show high for broadband growth
S W
T O
SWOT India Broadband Market

4. Multinational Competation and
challenges from other countries like
bangladesh, Vietnam
•China as major competitor to FDI
India is now one of the biggest
recipients of foreign direct investment (FDI)
among emerging markets.
• Cost Effective skilled English-speaking
force
• Growing Workforce, HouseHold
Income, Literacy ,GDP and per capita
Overall literacy rates in India
remain far lower than in Asian and other
key emerging market nations.
• Lack of optimum Infrastructure
• Foreign investment protection , red tape
and inflexible labour laws
Enhance competitiveness of local
industry through further
liberalization and deregulation
• Major opportunity lies in infrastructure
, roads, railways and airports etc.
S W
T O
SWOT India Business Environment

5. 0
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,600,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Subscriptions
CDMA
GSM
W-CDMA
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Bharti
Reliance Communications
Vodafone Essar
Tata Teleservices
Idea Cellular
BSNL
Aircel
Unitech Wireless
Etisalat DB Telecom
Shyam
Videocon
0
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,600,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Subscriptions
1xEV-DO
1xEV-DO Rev A/B
1xRTT
GSM
HSPA
W-CDMA
Vodafone Essar
15%
Tata Teleservices
15%
Shyam
2%
Reliance
Communications
15%
MTNL
1%
Loop Mobile
1%
Idea Cellular
10%
HFCL Infotel
0%
BSNL
9%
Bharti
18%
Aircel
7%
Etisalat DB Telecom
2%
S Tel
1%
Unitech
Wireless
3%
Videocon
1%
Total
CDMA,GSM and W-CDMA Operators Market Share
Data Technology Split Operators Market Share in 2015
Subscription and Technology Forecast

6. Prepaid vs. Postpaid Composition – Comparing China, US
and Japan
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Subscriptions
Millions
Prepaid
Postpaid
India Japan
China US
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Subscriptions
Millions
Prepaid
Postpaid
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Subscriptions
Millions Prepaid
Postpaid
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Subscriptions
Millions
Prepaid
Postpaid

7. 3G Market and Forecast
0
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,600,000,000
Dec
2010
Dec
2011
Dec
2012
Dec
2013
Dec
2014
Dec
2015
W-CDMA
LTE
HSPA
GSM
1xRTT
1xEV-DO Rev A/B
1xEV-DO
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
Sep
2008
Dec
2008
Mar
2009
Jun
2009
Sep
2009
Dec
2009
Mar
2010
Jun
2010
MTNL/BSNL, 3G
3G Subscription
MTNL BSNL 3G Uptake Technology /Forecast

8. Handset Market Share by Technology
Total
W-CDMA
HSPA
GSM
GPRS/EDGE
1xRTT
1xEV-DO Rev A/B
1xEV-DO
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
HandsetSales
1xEV-DO
1xEV-DO Rev A/B
1xRTT
GPRS/EDGE
GSM
HSPA
W-CDMA
Handset Market Share in 2010 Forecast market share by 2015

9. OS Market Share and Handset Manufacturers
Symbian
83%
Microsoft
Windows
Mobile
9%
Android
1%
iOS
1%
Research In
Motion
6%
HTC
7%
LG
1%
Nokia
82%
Others
1%
RIM
6%
Samsung
2%
Sony Ericsson
1%
Apple
Asus
HTC
LG
Nokia
Others
RIM
Samsung
Sony Ericsson
Smartphone OS Market Share Handset Manufacturers Market Share

10. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Bharti
RCOM
Idea
Average
Voice APRU(-8.5% CAGR)
0
100
200
300
400
500
Bharti
RCOM
Idea
Average
Minute of Use (-2% CAGR)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Bharti
RCOM
Idea
Average Cost per Minute (-7% CAGR)
ARPU Trends and Forecast

11. Wireline Broadband Landscape
DSL covers over 80% of the market
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Other High-Speed
Cable Modem
DSL
FTTH/FTTP/Ethernet
Dial-Up Accounts
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Household Penetration of Consumer
Broadband Connections
Household Penetration of
Consumer Broadband
Connections
Household Broadband Penetration

12. Data ARPU Trends
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
5 GB 10 GB 20 GB
INR
MTS
TATA
Reliance
Dongle EV-DO
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
512 Kbps 1 Mbps 2 Mbps
INR
BSNL
TATA
Reliance
Unlimited plans, fair usage policy
Personal Broadband Residential Broadband
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
512 Kbps 1 Mbps 2 Mbps
INR
BSNL
TATA
Bharti
Unlimited ,Fair Usage , Static IP
SME Broadband

13. THANKYOU
Blog : www.beyond4g.org
Email: bptiwari@beyond4g.org
+91-9223339772