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Mobile Media
Making the app market pay
Ronan de Renesse
Senior Analyst, IHS Screen Digest
       Analyst

June, 2011
Application store/smartphone combination
revolutionised mobile media

• Smartphones offer better tech for rich
   media co su pt o o mobile (
     ed a consumption on ob e (WiFi, ,
   memory, processing, power, screen
   size)

• Applications stores have broken
   operators’ walled-gardens and fuelled
   innovation

• Improved browsing experience has
   brought online and mobile together
                                                 Android Market
• Remaining issues:
    • Addressable market still small
    • Monetisation can be difficult
    • Over crowded market place
    • Device fragmentation

Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                    2
UK leads European smartphone market


          EU5: Smartphone installed base (m)                               iOS installed base by country (m)
180                                                                   20
                                                                      18
160
                                                                      16
140
                                                                      14
120                                                                   12
                                                                      10
100
                                                                       8
  80
                                                                       6
  60                                                                   4

  40                                                                   2
                                                                       0
  20

    0
     2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
             France         Germany              Italy   Spain   UK                    2011   2014



Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                 3
Smartphone market was a three-horse race


           Europe: 2010 smartphone installed                         Europe: 2015 smartphone installed
           base market share by OS (%)                               base market share by OS (%)
                                   3.7%                                              5.1%
                        4.0%
                                                                           7.9%
                                                        22.9%
                                                                     0.3%
                                                                    6.0%                                  32.7%




   38.3%


                                                            20.2%



                                                                            47.9%
                                           11.0%

                  iPhone             Android       BlackBerry              iPhone      Android   BlackBerry
                  Symbian            Windows       Others                  Symbian     Windows   Others



Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                    4
Apple dominates 2010 app revenues


          2010: leading application stores' share            • Apple’s App Store took 82.5% of
                                                                pp      pp
          of revenues (%) - total €1 6bn
                                  €1.6bn
                                                              revenues from the four leading stores
                                   7.6%                       in 2010 with revenues of €1.3bn.
                     4.9%                                     Apple will maintain its lead with
               5.0%
               5 0%
                                                              around 60% market share among     g
                                                              leading stores to 2014.

                                                             • In January 2011, Apple passed 10bn
                                                              total downloads. By May 2011
                                                                    downloads         2011,
                                                              Google had served 4.5bn – with
                                                              Nokia and RIM some distance
                                                     82.5%    behind.


                            Apple: App Store
                                                             • Despite growth in downloads, Google
                            Google: Android Market
                                                              has so far struggled to monetise
                            Nokia: Ovi Store
                                                              many Android Market users. But
                                                                  y
                            RIM: BlackBerry App World
                                                              improvements are on the way.

Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                   5
…but Android Market will catch-up fairly
q
quickly
      y

                                             Application stores revenue forecast (€bn)
7

6

5

4                                                                                        Blackberry App World
                                                                                         Nokia Ovi Store
3                                                                                        Google Android Market
                                                                                         Apple App Store
2

1

0
 2008                 2009                2010       2011     2012     2013     2014



Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                              6
What about others?




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.   7
Games is the leading app category


            World App Store downloads (bn)
                                                                                     Q1 2011: major publishers’ iOS
    10                                                                                         releases
     9
                                                                              EA Mobile

     8
                                                                                Capcom
     7
                                                                              Glu Mobile
     6
                                                                               Gameloft
     5
                                                                        Digital Chocolate
     4
                                                                                 Namco
     3
                                                                        Hands-On Mobile
     2

                                                                          Disney Mobile
     1

     0                                                                     THQ Wireless
      2008       2009       2010        2011       2012   2013   2014
                                                                                            0   2    4     6      8   10
                               Games             Others


Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
The application market goes beyond
distributing repurposed content to mobile
           g p p

                                                                        Number of apps by TV network
• For TV companies, mobile applications offer the                               (total = 78)
    opportunity to:
         t it t
         • increase the length of the relationship with                          MTV               NBC

             consumers by making content accessible anywhere
             at anytime
         •   create a more intimate contact with the audience with               Fox             Disney

             interactive features evolving around key TV                               CBS

             programmes
         •   improve brand image by creating ‘cool’ apps
                p               g y          g         pp                    Number of apps by g
                                                                                        pp   y genre
                                                                            Sports
         •   increase viewership and address an audience                                Travel
             unreachable on any other platforms
         •   generate additional revenues through paid           News
                                                                                                   Games
             downloads/subscriptions and/or advertising
• Popular applications tend to be more innovative
                                                                Lifestyle
    by taking advantage of the mobile experience to                                     Entertainment

    bring another dimension to existing services.                      Finance

                                                                                  Others




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                             9
Online freemium music providers see
mobile as a way to improve their business
case

• Spotify, Deezer both launched
    mobile applications on Android
    and iPhone/iPod Touch in 2009

• Spotify: 1m paying subs from
    6.7m active users in a region
                             g
    resistant to paying for music
       i t tt       i f        i

• Deezer: 800,000 paying
    subscribers

• Mobile operators embrace the
    unlimited music on-demand craze
         • 3UK bundled a Spotify premium
           subscription with its latest Android
           handset
         • Orange made a strategic investment
           in Deezer in 2010 and also bundles it
           with some of its services




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.     10
But, rich media is still only a small subset of
mobile content and data revenues

                Rich media as % of data & content revenues
    14%



    12%



    10%



      8%



      6%



      4%



      2%



      0%
                  2006               2007        2008       2009      2010       2011           2012   2013   2014

                                                    Music   Games   TV & Video   Application stores

Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                       11
Mobile won’t offset decline in traditional
media revenue streams unless bundled




                                                                             Top-tier customer
                           Piracy                                            migration


                           Over-the-top                                      Increased ARPU
     Core                                        Core
     media                 Increased             media         Core          Customer ownership
     services                  p
                           competition           services      media                              Blended
     ARPU                                        ARPU          services                           ARPU
                                                                             Reduced churn
                           Tougher                             ARPU
                           regulation
                                                                             Added value

                                                 Mobile ARPU
                                                                             Differentiation

     Mobile ARPU

                                                               Mobile ARPU




Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                          12
The mobile data crunch. Who will pay for
data?

• Smartphones, mobile broadband and                                                 UK mobile data market
    M2M are set to drive exponential                               900                                                    14
    mobile data traffic growth
                                                                   800
                                                                                                                          12
• Increasing competition and heavy                                 700
    subsidies on data/smartphone                                                                                          10
    bundles will endanger mobile data




                                                                                                                               Revenu per GB (£)
                                                                   600
    monetisation




                                                      affic (PB)
                                                                   500                                                    8




                                                                                                                                    ue
• There are three options for operators:                           400




                                                    Tra
                                                                                                                          6
         • Add extra capacity on the network and
           increase prices                                         300
                                                                                                                          4
         • Content delivery optimisation (IMB,
                                                                   200
           throttling, QoS, WiFi)
         • Ch
           Charge content providers ( bil d
                                id   (mobile data                  100
                                                                                                                          2
           termination fees)
                                                                     0                                                    0
                                                                            2010        2011    2012     2013     2014
• Video is set to contribute to more
    than half of mobile data traffic by                                  Smart phones      Mobile Broadband     Revenue per GB
    2015

Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                           13
Tablets: similar apps but better monetisation
- US case studyy

                            US: top grossing iPad apps
                                                                                            US: average price per paid game ($)
                                1%      1% 2% 1% 2%
                                                         1%
                   0.3%          3%                                                    4
                                            4%      4%
                      4%
               0.3%      3%
                                                                                      3.5
                       3%

                            4%                                                         3
                  1%
            1%
                      2%
                                                                                      2.5

                                                         63%
                                                                                       2


                                                                                      1.5
         Books                          Business               Education
         Entertainment                  Games                  Healthcare & Fitness    1
         Lifestyle                      Medical                Music
         Navigation                     News                   Photography            0.5
         Productivity                   Reference              Social Networking
         Sports
         S t                            Travel
                                        T    l                 Utilities
                                                               Utiliti                 0
         Weather                                                                                   iPhone              iPad


Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.                                                                                14
Thanks



ronan.derenesse@ihs.com
Tel: 44
T l +44 207 424 2865
Twitter: @Ronan_SD

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Screen digest Ronan de Renesse

  • 1. Mobile Media Making the app market pay Ronan de Renesse Senior Analyst, IHS Screen Digest Analyst June, 2011
  • 2. Application store/smartphone combination revolutionised mobile media • Smartphones offer better tech for rich media co su pt o o mobile ( ed a consumption on ob e (WiFi, , memory, processing, power, screen size) • Applications stores have broken operators’ walled-gardens and fuelled innovation • Improved browsing experience has brought online and mobile together Android Market • Remaining issues: • Addressable market still small • Monetisation can be difficult • Over crowded market place • Device fragmentation Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2
  • 3. UK leads European smartphone market EU5: Smartphone installed base (m) iOS installed base by country (m) 180 20 18 160 16 140 14 120 12 10 100 8 80 6 60 4 40 2 0 20 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 France Germany Italy Spain UK 2011 2014 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3
  • 4. Smartphone market was a three-horse race Europe: 2010 smartphone installed Europe: 2015 smartphone installed base market share by OS (%) base market share by OS (%) 3.7% 5.1% 4.0% 7.9% 22.9% 0.3% 6.0% 32.7% 38.3% 20.2% 47.9% 11.0% iPhone Android BlackBerry iPhone Android BlackBerry Symbian Windows Others Symbian Windows Others Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 4
  • 5. Apple dominates 2010 app revenues 2010: leading application stores' share • Apple’s App Store took 82.5% of pp pp of revenues (%) - total €1 6bn €1.6bn revenues from the four leading stores 7.6% in 2010 with revenues of €1.3bn. 4.9% Apple will maintain its lead with 5.0% 5 0% around 60% market share among g leading stores to 2014. • In January 2011, Apple passed 10bn total downloads. By May 2011 downloads 2011, Google had served 4.5bn – with Nokia and RIM some distance 82.5% behind. Apple: App Store • Despite growth in downloads, Google Google: Android Market has so far struggled to monetise Nokia: Ovi Store many Android Market users. But y RIM: BlackBerry App World improvements are on the way. Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5
  • 6. …but Android Market will catch-up fairly q quickly y Application stores revenue forecast (€bn) 7 6 5 4 Blackberry App World Nokia Ovi Store 3 Google Android Market Apple App Store 2 1 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 6
  • 7. What about others? Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 7
  • 8. Games is the leading app category World App Store downloads (bn) Q1 2011: major publishers’ iOS 10 releases 9 EA Mobile 8 Capcom 7 Glu Mobile 6 Gameloft 5 Digital Chocolate 4 Namco 3 Hands-On Mobile 2 Disney Mobile 1 0 THQ Wireless 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 2 4 6 8 10 Games Others Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  • 9. The application market goes beyond distributing repurposed content to mobile g p p Number of apps by TV network • For TV companies, mobile applications offer the (total = 78) opportunity to: t it t • increase the length of the relationship with MTV NBC consumers by making content accessible anywhere at anytime • create a more intimate contact with the audience with Fox Disney interactive features evolving around key TV CBS programmes • improve brand image by creating ‘cool’ apps p g y g pp Number of apps by g pp y genre Sports • increase viewership and address an audience Travel unreachable on any other platforms • generate additional revenues through paid News Games downloads/subscriptions and/or advertising • Popular applications tend to be more innovative Lifestyle by taking advantage of the mobile experience to Entertainment bring another dimension to existing services. Finance Others Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 9
  • 10. Online freemium music providers see mobile as a way to improve their business case • Spotify, Deezer both launched mobile applications on Android and iPhone/iPod Touch in 2009 • Spotify: 1m paying subs from 6.7m active users in a region g resistant to paying for music i t tt i f i • Deezer: 800,000 paying subscribers • Mobile operators embrace the unlimited music on-demand craze • 3UK bundled a Spotify premium subscription with its latest Android handset • Orange made a strategic investment in Deezer in 2010 and also bundles it with some of its services Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 10
  • 11. But, rich media is still only a small subset of mobile content and data revenues Rich media as % of data & content revenues 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Music Games TV & Video Application stores Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 11
  • 12. Mobile won’t offset decline in traditional media revenue streams unless bundled Top-tier customer Piracy migration Over-the-top Increased ARPU Core Core media Increased media Core Customer ownership services p competition services media Blended ARPU ARPU services ARPU Reduced churn Tougher ARPU regulation Added value Mobile ARPU Differentiation Mobile ARPU Mobile ARPU Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 12
  • 13. The mobile data crunch. Who will pay for data? • Smartphones, mobile broadband and UK mobile data market M2M are set to drive exponential 900 14 mobile data traffic growth 800 12 • Increasing competition and heavy 700 subsidies on data/smartphone 10 bundles will endanger mobile data Revenu per GB (£) 600 monetisation affic (PB) 500 8 ue • There are three options for operators: 400 Tra 6 • Add extra capacity on the network and increase prices 300 4 • Content delivery optimisation (IMB, 200 throttling, QoS, WiFi) • Ch Charge content providers ( bil d id (mobile data 100 2 termination fees) 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 • Video is set to contribute to more than half of mobile data traffic by Smart phones Mobile Broadband Revenue per GB 2015 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 13
  • 14. Tablets: similar apps but better monetisation - US case studyy US: top grossing iPad apps US: average price per paid game ($) 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 0.3% 3% 4 4% 4% 4% 0.3% 3% 3.5 3% 4% 3 1% 1% 2% 2.5 63% 2 1.5 Books Business Education Entertainment Games Healthcare & Fitness 1 Lifestyle Medical Music Navigation News Photography 0.5 Productivity Reference Social Networking Sports S t Travel T l Utilities Utiliti 0 Weather iPhone iPad Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 14
  • 15. Thanks ronan.derenesse@ihs.com Tel: 44 T l +44 207 424 2865 Twitter: @Ronan_SD