A Presentation on the La Crosse Economy.

1. The Stimulus Package and The Local Business Owner
Taggert J. Brooks, PhD
Associate Professor of Economics
University of Wisconsin-La Crosse

3. Postwar Recessions (1946-2008): Cumulative Decline from NBER Peak
(pct)
0
1957
-1
1948
2007
-2 1953
-3
-4
-5
-6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

4. Postwar Recessions (1946-2008): Cumulative Decline from NBER Peak
(pct)
0
-1
1990
2001
-2
-3
2007
-4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

5. 6.00 800
Thousands
Millions
700
5.00
Continued Claims for Unemployment: SA
600
Initial Claims for Unemployment: SA
4.00
500
3.00 400
300
2.00
200
1.00
100
0.00 0
1990-Jan-06 1993-Jan-06 1996-Jan-06 1999-Jan-06 2002-Jan-06 2005-Jan-06 2008-Jan-06

6. Continued Claims - Wisconsin
200
Thousands
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08

7. It is not the banks…
It is consumption

8. TED Spread (3 Month LIBOR - 3 Month Constant Maturity Treasury Bill)
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
-
Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08

9. Case-Shiller Index
260.0
Las Vegas
230.0
200.0
Composite 10
170.0
Minneapolis
140.0
110.0
80.0
50.0
Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09

10. Average Number of Days on Market: 7 Rivers Region
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
1997-Jan 1999-Jan 2001-Jan 2003-Jan 2005-Jan 2007-Jan 2009-Jan

11. Average Price of Single Family Homes Sold in 7 Rivers Region
$180,000
$170,000
$160,000
$150,000
$140,000
$130,000
$120,000
$110,000
$100,000
$90,000
$80,000
1997-Jan 1999-Jan 2001-Jan 2003-Jan 2005-Jan 2007-Jan 2009-Jan

12. Foreclosures: 7 Rivers Counties
1,000.0
900.0
800.0
Total Number of Foreclosures Filed in Jackson, Juneau, La Crosse,
Monroe, Trempealeau, Vernon Counties
700.0
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
-
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*

13. In Recessions…
Preferences Change

14. In Recessions…
People Substitute – Time for Money

15. In Recessions…
People Get Healthier

16. In Recessions…
Preferences Change – Temporarily

17. ars accumulate at the ports

18. Total U.S. Light Vehicle Retail Sales (SAAR, Mil. Units)
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
Imports
8.0
6.0
Domestic
4.0
2.0
0.0
Feb. '08 Jun. '08 Oct. '08 Feb. '09

20. In Recessions…
Preferences Change – Permanently.

22. The Lost Decade

23. In Recessions…
There are opportunities.

24. Total U.S. Light Vehicle Retail Sales (SAAR, Mil. Units)
100%
90%
Imports
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
Domestic
20%
10%
0%
Feb. '08 Jun. '08 Oct. '08 Feb. '09

25. Midwest Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices (C/gal)
450.0
400.0
350.0
300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09

26. The Stimulus…
A Modern Financial Version of Pascal’s Wager.

28. In Recessions…
There are opportunities.

29. The Stimulus Package and The Local Business Owner
Questions?
March 10th 2009