At the intersection of climate change and a world with peaking oil production is an opportunity to focus on strategies that reduce both emissions and oil dependence. These strategies can contribute to a healthier region, but also help to create more resilient businesses, infrastructures, and a more resilient regional economy.
6. Long Term
1
2 Short Term
Creating cities and businesses
that are both sustainable and resilient
7. Resilient investments retain their value in multiple futures
1
2 Resilient systems bounce back from shocks,
…and use shocks as a catalyst for positive change
Creating cities and businesses
that are both sustainable and resilient
8. Resilient investments retain their value in multiple futures
1
2
Understanding Peak Oil
& Climate Change Scenarios!
Resilient systems bounce back from shocks,
…and use shocks as a catalyst for positive change
Creating cities and businesses
that are both sustainable and resilient
13. Crude oil plateau
2005 – 2012…
1
In many
plausible
scenarios we
could face a
rapid decline in
available oil
Understanding Peak Oil – Future Scenarios
15. 1 Understanding Peak Oil - Scenario Planning
Do your long term projects retain their value in a future
shaped by peak oil and climate change impacts?
16. 1 Understanding Peak Oil - Scenario Planning
WA:
Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel
BC:
‘Gateway’ Highway Expansions
Do these projects retain their value in a future shaped
by peak oil and climate change impacts?
17. 1 Understanding Peak Oil - Scenario Planning
Why are we only planning
for a future that is just
like the past?
18. 1 Peak Oil Literacy & Scenario Planning
Why are we only planning
for a future that is just
like the past?
Forecast
Reality
20. 1
2 Resilient systems bounce back from shocks,
…and use shocks as a catalyst for positive change
Resilient investments retain their value in multiple futures
Creating cities and businesses
that are both sustainable and resilient
21. Plan for transient shocks!
1
2 Resilient systems bounce back from shocks,
…and use shocks as a catalyst for positive change
Resilient investments retain their value in multiple futures
Creating cities and businesses
that are both sustainable and resilient
25. “Lesley Hopson used to ride to work in a Cadillac
Escalade. Then her twice weekly trips to the gas station
started to cost $90 each. Now, she's taking the 851 SMART
transit bus from her home in the suburbs to work in
downtown Detroit.
„Gas hit my maximum,‟ she says.”
2 Plan for transient shocks & rapid changes
27. Concern for the
environment &
climate change is
critical…
…but what really
drives change ‘at
scale’?
- Price Spikes
- Recession
- Rationing
- Shortages
2 Plan for transient shocks & rapid changes
28. 4 ‘Transition’ Shocks from the combined
impacts of peak oil and climate change:
- Price Spikes
- Recession
- Rationing
- Shortages
2 Plan for transient shocks & rapid changes
29. Resilient investments retain their value in multiple futures
1
2 Resilient systems bounce back from shocks,
…and use shocks as a catalyst for positive change
Creating cities and businesses
that are both sustainable and resilient
How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy?
3
32. Support regional investments in electrified rail
(skytrain, streetcars, freight rail)
How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy?
3
33. Support electric mobility for individuals & families.
Move employees and customers without oil.
How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy?
3
34. ‘Post Carbon’ Goods Movement
How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy?
3
35. Support Bike Lanes & Pedestrian Amenities:
Not just for health and the environment…
A cost effective way to facilitate ‘Post-Carbon’
consumer and employee mobility
How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy?
3
36. New Opportunities
New businesses niches can develop in response to
shocks & rapidly changing consumer demands
How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy?
3
37. Create businesses - and a
regional economy - that can
function during an oil shock.
How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy?
3
Houston (late 20th c.)
Vancouver Region, 2010 Olympics
38. Support ‘Eco-density’
& Infill Housing
Give people the ability to live
and work with less oil
(and less carbon).
How can we create a resilient post-carbon economy?
3
39. Invest with an eye to multiple futures
….including peak oil and climate change1
2 Prepare for the shocks that we‟re likely to see,
…and use shocks as a catalyst for positive change
Creating cities and businesses
that are both sustainable and resilient
Help create a resilient post-carbon economy
… good bets reduce both emissions and oil dependence3