Green IT Technologies and Business Opportunities

1. Technology and business opportunities in Green IT Bill St. Arnaud Bill.st.arnaud@gmail.com Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author

2. Global Average Temperature

3. 2009 second warmest year ever

4. Jan, Feb Mar 2010 warmest ever This is despite a solar sun spot minimum

6. 11°C increase in Northern Canada & Europe

7. http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.php?publication_id=990

8. Last Ice age average global temperature was 5-6°C cooler than today

9. Most of Canada & Europe was under 2-3 km ice

10. With BAU we are talking about 5-6°C change in temperature in the opposite direction in less than 80 YearsMIT

11. Climate Change is not reversible Climate Change is not like acid rain, water management or ozone destruction where environment will quickly return to normal once source of pollution is removed GHG emissions will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and continue to accumulate Planet will continue to warm up even if we drastically reduce emissions Weaver et al., GRL (2007) All we hope to achieve is to slow down the rapid rate of climate change

12. Climate tipping points USGS report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating. Tipping elements in the Earth's climate - National Academies of Science “Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. “

13. The Global ICT Carbon Footprint isRoughly the Same as the Aviation Industry Today But ICT Emissions are Growing at 6% Annually! www.smart2020.org ICT represent 8% of global electricity consumption Projected to grow to as much as 20% of all electrical consumption in the US (http://uclue.com/index.php?xq=724) Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity http://www.ee.unimelb.edu.au/people/rst/talks/files/Tucker_Green_Plenary.pdf

14. The Global ICT Carbon Footprint by Subsector The Number of PCs (Desktops and Laptops) Globally is Expected to Increase from 592 Million in 2002 to More Than Four Billion in 2020 www.smart2020.org Data Centers & Clouds Are Low Hanging Fruit PCs Are Biggest Problem Telecom & Internet fastest growing

15. IT biggest power draw Energy Consumption World Wide Transportation 25% Energy Consumption Typical Building Buildings 50% Lighting 11% Manufacturing 25% IT Equipment 30-40% Heating, Cooling and Ventilation 40-50% Other 6% Sources: BOMA 2006, EIA 2006, AIA 2006

16. Digital vs Traditional appliances

17. Growth Projections Data Centers Half of ICT consumption is data centers In ten years 50% of today’s Data Centers and major science facilities in the US will have insufficient power and cooling;* By 2012, half of all Data Centers will have to relocate or outsource applications to another facility.* CO2 emissions from US datacenters greater than all CO2 emissions from Netherlands or Argentina http://bit.ly/cW6jEY Coal fuels much of Internet 'cloud,' Greenpeace says http://bit.ly/bkeSec Data centers will consume 12% of electricity in the US by 2020 (TV Telecom) Source: Gartner; Meeting the DC power and cooling challenge

18. Green IT Enabling Effect is Significant Can deliver carbon emission reductions five times size of sector’s own footprint by 2020 7.8 Giga-tons carbon dioxide equivalent Greater than US or China’s current annual emissions Key sectors include Transportation, Buildings, Industrial Processes, and Power No other sector can achieve this enabler effect !! Source: SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age, 2008 12

20. Zero Carbon strategy essential Zero carbon strategy using renewable energy critically important if governments mandate carbon neutrality, or if there is a climate catastrophe With a zero carbon strategy growth in demand for services will not effect GHG emissions Anything times zero is always zero Wind and solar power are most likely candidates because of opportunity cost/benefit analysis especially time to deploy Nuclear has high opportunity cost because of time to deploy http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/14/stanford-study-part-1-wind-solar-baseload-easily-beat-nuclear-and-they-all-best-clean-coal/ But renewable energy sites are usually located far from cities and electrical distribution systems are not designed to carry load http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/12/pdf/renewable_transmission.pdf Local wind/solar will be an important component

21. Grand Challenge – Building solutions using renewable energy only Most government GHG plans plan to 30-40% of electrical power will come from renewable sources How do you provide mission critical services when energy source is unreliable? Ebbing wind or setting sun Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks Need new energy delivery architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery R&E networks and clouds can play a critical role Not so much in energy efficiency, but building smart solutions that adapt to availability of renewable power

22. MIT to build zero carbon data center in Holyoke MA The data center will be managed and funded by the four main partners in the facility: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cisco Systems, the University of Massachusetts and EMC. It will be a high-performance computing environment that will help expand the research and development capabilities of the companies and schools in Holyoke http://www.greenercomputing.com/news/2009/06/11/cisco-emc-team-mit-launch-100m-green-data-center

23. Evolving Internet & Impact on GHG Van Jacobson predicted several years ago evolution away from “end-to-end” Internet to information Internet http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6972678839686672840# Current Internet is based on old telco architecture of connecting users New Internet is based on connecting users to information Arbor study has vindicated Van Jacobson prediction C. Labovitz, et al "ATLAS Internet Observatory 2009 Annual Report" http://www.nanog.org/meetings/nanog47/presentations/Monday/Labovitz_ObserveReport_N47_Mon.pdf Over 50% of Internet traffic is from handful of information suppliers such as Google, Akamai, Content Distribution networks etc Will have major impact on wireless networks as we move from “end to end” cell phone network to cell phone Internet 18

24. Traditional Internet Small Content Provider User’s Computer Backbone ISP1 Fiber Networks Regional ISP Last mile ISP Backbone ISP 2 IX Thousands of miles IX Last mile ISP Backbone ISP 3 Large Content Provider with multiple servers User’s Computer

25. Information Internet – zero carbon Small Content Provider User’s Computer Backbone ISP1 Regional ISP Last mile ISP Backbone ISP 2 IX IX Backbone ISP 3 Last mile ISP Nearby Cloud CDN Large Content Provider User’s Computer Content hosted in ACI

26. New Internet Increasingly most connections will be local to nearest IX where user will connect to cloud, CDN or social network Connections to another user or computer at the edge of the cloud will be less common Network topologies and architectures will be driven by application and content rather than connecting users “end-to-end” Cyber-infrastructure and UCLP were forerunners of these development Future wireless networks are likely to also evolve in this manner Don’t need an end to end network for accessing applications and content User white space and wifi to provide data to cell phones Next network neutrality battleground will be “last inch” – open devices and “last tower” - Much easier to deploy zero carbon Internet CDN, clouds and social network infrastructure can be built along GSN model Users will increasingly use solar powered iPhone, iPad to access information and applications 21

27. Grand Challenge – Building robust ICT services using renewable energy only 30% of electrical power will come from renewable sources How do you provide mission critical ICT services when energy source is unreliable? Ebbing wind or setting sun Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks Need new network architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery by quickly moving compute jobs and data sets around the world to sites that have available power Will require high bandwidth networks and routing architectures to quickly move jobs and data sets from site to site

28. GENI Topology optimized by source destination Sensor Network Thin Client Edge Site Mobile Wireless Network Wind Power Substrate Router Solar Power Wireless Base Station Source: Peter Freeman NSF

29. Mobile Wireless Network GENI with router nodes at renewable energy sites Sensor Network Wind Power Substrate Router Solar Power Wireless Base Station Thin Client Edge Site Topology optimized by availability of energy Source: Peter Freeman NSF

31. Share infrastructure & maximize lower cost power by “following wind & sun” networks.

33. 27 GreenStar Global Collaboration Université du Québec à Montréal China (MOU) RackForce Networks Canadian Standards Association (CSA), Climate Change Division iDealinc. California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology USA Ireland USA Spain SIGMACO International Institute for Broadband Technology Belgium

34. Building a “5G” wireless network Over 100,000 cell phone towers to be powered by renewable energy by 2012 Vertical axis turbines and solar Existing 3G and 4G networks cannot handle data load Need to offload data at nearest node or tower New Wifi standards 802.11u allow for data handoff from 3G networks WiFi nodes can be powered by renewable sources such as roof top solar panel over 400Hz power systems or ethernet power Cell phones also become sensors SURFnet – Dutch R&E network to deploy

35. Impact of 5G networks 29 The PC is out of the loop The phone is a sensor platform Hardware add-on innovation Location based sensing Touch screen UI Processing is done in real time in the cloud Allowing processing that can’t be done on the device Big data analysis Building new networks on the back of existing ones Reinventing a major industry Source: Tim OReilly

36. Cap and reward – “gCommerce” Although carbon taxes or cap and trade are revenue neutral, they payee rarely sees any direct benefit No incentive other than higher cost to reduce footprint Rather than penalize consumers and businesses for carbon emissions, can we reward them for reducing their carbon emissions? Carbon rewards can be low carbon services and products delivered over broadband networks such movies, books, education, health services, collaborative education and research technologies etc Carbon reward can also be free services (with low carbon footprint) such as Internet, cellphone, fiber to the home, etc

37. What are carbon offsets? Many claims of energy savings can only be proven through rigorous process of carbon measurement (ISO 14064) Now required by many financial auditors to verify internal green processes e.g. TD bank Also critical for compliance with EPA and government regulations E.g. Most universities in the US must report as they emit over 25,000 tons Can also be used for internal trading and with customers or external markets Carbon trading currently almost dead - Two types of markets Regulated markets – Alberta, BC , Europe and New England Voluntary markets – Air Canada, Chicago, etc Companies or individuals buy carbon offsets from projects that remove or reduce carbon Planting trees, building hydro dams, installing energy efficient processes, etc

38. The Carbon Economy $500 billion - Value of low-carbon energy markets by 2050 $100 billion - Demand for projects generating GHG missions credits by 2030 Global carbon market expected to grow 58% this year to $92 billion Carbon market could be worth billions for telecoms & IT Green Telecom market $122 billion by 2014 http://green-broadband.blogspot.com/2010/07/green-telecoms-maket-is-expected-to-be.html Source: ClimateCheck 20

39. Do your ISO 14064 NOW! Many governments demanding “green” compliance on RFPs UK government shadow RFPs ISO 14064 products and services will be eligible for government funds New Quebec $60m Green IT program Rumoured Green IT gas tax in Quebec Next Y2K will be CO2K !! Businesses and governments will have to upgrade computer systems to be 14064 compliant Learn how to do private trading of offsets with customers New revenue stream for ICT products

40. Final remarks The problem we face is NOT energy consumption, but carbon emissions Think carbon, not energy We must start addressing climate change now – not in 2050 or 2020 80% reduction in CO2 emissions will fundamentally change everything we do including universities and networks Huge potential for innovation and new business opportunities for green communications enabled applications because 30% of energy must come from renewable sources

41. Let’s Keep The Conversation Going E-mail list Bill.St.Arnaud@gmail.com Blogspot Bill St. Arnaud http://green-broadband.blogspot.com Twitter http://twitter.com/BillStArnaud