1. Научно-исследовательский университет
Московский энергетический институт
“Swiss electricity watch”
by Niklaus Zepf
author of the Axpo study, „Stromperspectiven 2020‟, on which this article is based,
article from “Nuclear engineering international”©
Volume 53 (№645), april 2008
Выполнил студент
группы Тф-11-06
Буданов И.А.
Проверила:
Уласенко Л.Я.
Москва, 2011

2. The older Swiss nuclear plants are approaching the end of their design lifetimes and supply
contracts with France are reaching the end of their terms, which means that Switzerland’s security
of supply is increasingly at risk.
Thanks to its excellent reliability, the Swiss power supply system has enjoyed a good reputation
for many decades, with an average availability of electricity of 99,99%. It is essential for an advanced
society with a flourishing economy to have constant access to a reliable power supply at competitive
prices. If this cannot be guaranteed, Switzerland will suffer directly as a preferred business location.
However, as early as 2012, Switzerland may face an energy shortfall. Later, electricity import
contracts with France begin to expire from 2018 and, from 2020, the Beznau and Muhleberg plants will
be closed. At the same time, electricity consumption in the country is rising steadily.
A study carried out by the Axpo Group, Stromperspektiven 2020 (“Electricity Perspectives Study
2020”), analyses the potential electricity supply shortfall that the country faces, and explores the options
available to ensure future security of supply. Axpo, which is wholly-owned by the cantons of northeastern
Switzerland, comprises Nordostschweizerischen Kraftwerke AG (NOK), Central-schweizerische
Kraftwerke AG (CKW) and operates a fleet of hydro, nuclear and renewable power plants.
Security sufficient supply
Achieving security of supply essentially requires four elements:
- Primary energy sources for electricity generation,
- Producing capacities,
- Grids,
- System management.
Security of supply is assured if the first three elements are available in sufficient quantity to meet
demand and the system management structure is capable of deploying production facilities and grids
according to consumer requirements. As in a chain, the weakest link defines the degree of security of
supply, irrespective of the strength of the other links in the chain. The following basic principles apply for
increasing security of supply:
- The more diversified the primary energy sources and production options, the lower the absolute
dependence on one opinion and the higher the security of supply,
- The closer the production facilities are to the consumption centers, the higher the security of
supply,
- The greater the redundancies for all four elements, the higher the security of supply,
- The lower the effect of a particular power plant or transmission line on the whole supply region,
the higher the security of supply,
Switzerland is closely integrated into the European electricity network. This has the advantage
that additional backup capacity is available from Europe in the event of short-term supply bottlenecks
caused by failure of a large and/or several medium-sized power plants. According to a clearly defined
procedure, Switzerland is obliged, once such emergency situations have passed, to again provide
sufficient energy from its own resources in order to free up the short-term backup capacity for Europe.
Just as Switzerland benefits from Europe‟s production portfolio, Europe can utilize Switzerland‟s
production portfolio as backup. This mutual assistance only functions if adequate electricity supplies and
associated backup capacity are available for regular internal consumption on the short, medium and long-
term.

3. Demand and supply
Demand development
Electricity consumption in Switzerland has more than double over the last 35 years. On
average, a 1% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) results in a 1.8% increase in electricity
consumption. While this trend is weakening, it is not expected to reverse.
To put this analysis into perspective, it should be borne in mind that, from 1970, many
energy-intensive companies gave up production in Switzerland for cost reasons. Without this
development, the increase in electricity consumption during this period would have been even
higher. Growth over recent years has been based on the service sector, which is associated with
ongoing computerization, increasing electrification in private households and an increase in
population. While electrical devices are becoming more efficient and therefore more economical,
the number of electrical applications is increasing. Several studies predict that total energy
consumption (electricity, gas, oil, fuels, heat) in Switzerland will either remain stable or, at best,
will decrease slightly over the coming years. The situation for electricity consumption is
somewhat different. In 2005 electricity consumption increased by 2,1%; in 2006 the increase was
0,8%, despite the very warm winter.
In order to predict future electricity demand, different scenarios were defined for
calculation purposes. Based on the “high” demand scenario, consumption would increase by 2%
every year until 2010 (in line with the current growth rate), followed by 1,5% until 2030 and
then 1% until 2050. Based on the “low” demand scenario, the annual increase the consumption
would be 1% until 2010 and 0,5% until 2050. Axpo assumes that actual electricity consumption
will be somewhere between “high” and “low” scenarios. In addition to GDP growth, further
drivers of electricity consumption that should not be underestimated in the long run are primary
energy prices and, as a result, energy efficiency. The higher and more sustained the increases in
prices for primary energy sources such as oil and gas, the more use there will be of energy-
efficient systems. I many cases this leads to substitution effects, with an associated increase in
electricity consumption.
For example, oil-based heating systems are increasingly being replaced with electric heat
pumps offering the same level of thermal comfort. Advanced systems can reduce energy
consumption by around 75%. With 25% electricity and 75% free ambient heat, they produce
100% heating energy and also lead to substantial reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. Today,
new buildings are often constructed based on the Minergie or Minergy-P standard. They use
significantly less heating energy thanks to better insulation and also offer good protection from
heat in summer. They actively utilize waste heat and, for this, require ventilation systems and
controllers that, in turn, are operated with electricity. These two examples clearly illustrate that
substitution effects allow significant improvements in energy efficiency, but that these measures
result in increased electricity consumptions. Electricity is a key energy and is central to a wide
range of efficiency measures. Electricity thus enables energy efficiency. [+5800]

4. Existing production capacities
In 2006, net electricity generation in Switzerland amounted to 59,4TWh. In the same year
total consumption reached 62,1TWh mean that 2,7TWh or 4,7% had to be imported during the
year.
In the medium and long term, production capacities will decrease and total consumption
will increase further. The nuclear power plants Beznau 1&2 and Muhleberg are expected to be
decommissioned from 2020. The Gosgen nuclear power plant is expected to produce electricity
until 2038 and the Leibstadt nuclear power plant until 2043. In addition, supply contracts with
nuclear power plants operated by EDF will be phased out from 2018. For hydropower, recent
studies indicate that production is expected to fall by around 7% by 2050 due to global warming
and an associated reduction in precipitation. As a result of these factors, the production
capacities available in Switzerland will decrease significantly, particularly around 2020.
Power supply shortfall
For a reliable power supply in Switzerland, it is essential that sufficient electricity is
available during the winter months.
However, during the winter, electricity generation is lower due to reduced water flow in
the rivers, while consumption is higher. A comparison of the available production capacities with
the demand trend during the winter months indicates that Switzerland will experience a power
supply shortfall from 2012, depending on the rate of increasing in consumption. This conclusion
takes into account the supply contracts with nuclear power plants in France. Without these
contracts, Switzerland would already have had an electricity deficit during the winter months
since 2000. Since 2004, more electricity has been imported than exported (with an upward
trend), with an associated increase in dependence on other countries.
A further significant issue is the available capacity. Assuming that capacity demand will
increase in line with energy consumption, a capacity deficit is expected from 2012, depending on
development of consumption. Analyses indicate that Switzerland generally has sufficient peak
capacity, but that it has very little intermediate load capacity and insufficient base load capacity.
Switzerland‟s location is an important factor in terms of security of supply. Adequate
power supply can only be ensured if sufficient production capacities are available even under
extreme conditions. This means that the situation must be manageable even during a long cold
winter spell with associated higher electricity consumption while, at the same time, production is
reduced due to lover water levels in the rivers. Such cold spells are not limited to Switzerland,
but simultaneously affect neighboring countries, meaning that the problem cannot be resolved by
importing. Calculations show that, under extreme conditions, Switzerland is already reaching its
capacity limits today, taking into account the long-term supply contracts with France.
From around 2012, Switzerland will require new productions capacities in order to ensure
security of supply and to avoid increasing dependence on other countries. For extreme situations,
Switzerland already has no reserve capacity today, which means has to be covered throw
expensive imports.

5. Basic options
To cover the power supply shortfall, five basics options are available:
- Energy efficiency,
- New energies (ie renewable, not including large hydro),
- Imports,
- Decentralized energy supply systems,
- Large-scale plants,
Energy efficiency
On average, energy efficiency is still far lower today than what is technically possible and
calls to address this issue in a consistent manner are intensifying. In its Energy Prospects 2035
study, the federal government concluded that energy efficiency should be given high priority.
Energy efficiency has been an issue of concern for some time, prompting the federal
government to initiate the Energy 2000 and, subsequently, Energy Switzerland programmes. These
programs achieved some success, but failed to reach their declared targets. One of the aims of Energy
Switzerland was to restrict the increase in electricity consumption between 2000 and 2010 to 5%.
However, halfway through this period electricity consumption had already increased by 9,5%. There are
two aspects that are often overlooked in the energy efficiency discussion. Firstly, energy efficiency often
requires substantial investment, meaning that investments in energy efficiency trend to be made only
during the normal reinvestment cycle. The reinvestment cycle for buildings is around 30 years. The
second point is that human habits need to change; this is often a very slow process.
Energy efficiency is both sensible and feasible. Investments in energy efficiency measures are
often influenced by state regulations and subsidies and the key is to focus on implementing measures that
offer a positive cost/benefit ratio. Politicians have to define the appropriate framework for ensuring that
maximum energy efficiency is achieved with every Swiss Franc that is invested.
New energies
New energies are defined as all renewable except established large-scale hydropower. They
include small-scale hydropower, biogas, solid biomass (wood), geothermal energy, wind power and
photovoltaic (PV).
A study carried out by Axpo analyses the new energies potential for Switzerland under ideals
conditions, together with the associated costs. Ideal conditions means that, for the assessment of technical
potential, all sensible locations can be used, irrespective of countryside conversation and spatial planning
aspects and costs. The study also assumed that unlimited funds are available. In terms of restrictions, the
only exception was PV, for which only existing infrastructure (roofs, facades, noise barriers) was
considered as potential locations for reasons of landscape conversation. New large-surface plants were
not included in the analysis. The analysis showed that the total potential for all new energies, excluding
geothermal energy, is around 20TWh per year, without taking a costs into account. The additional
potential from geothermal energy is around 17TWh, but this is not yet technically secured. The technical
potential can be estimated reliably only after the first pilot plant has been in operation in Switzerland for
approximately one year. [+5400]

6. Imports
Basic on long-standing contracts, Switzerland has been importing electricity from the nuclear
power plant fleet operated by EDF for many years. New contracts of this type are doubtful against the
background of market liberalization.
From a present-day perspective, it can be expected that pure production contracts will still be
possible. However, according to European Union (EU) law, transmission of electricity produced abroad
to Switzerland can no longer be guaranteed, because cross-border transmission lines must be made
available to all market participants without discrimination. Critical bottleneck situations can be expected,
particularly during prolonged cold spells in winter. From a meteorological perspective, cold spells with
temperature of -10°C or below affect not only Switzerland, but also neighboring countries or even
the whole of Western and Central Europe. Bottlenecks therefore occur not only at the Swiss
borders, but also at the borders of surrounding countries. Electricity imports are therefore not
regarded as a reliable means of ensuring the security of domestic power supply. Added to this is
the fact that electricity demand is also increasing rapidly in neighboring countries.
Decentralized energy supply
There are two types of decentralized energy supply systems. New energy systems such as
small-scale hydropower, biogas or PV have already been mentioned. They are regarded as
decentralized if electricity generation and consumption are close together. In addition there are
fossil-fuelled plants such as cogeneration plants, micro gas turbines and fuel cells. In these
systems, the heat generated in the electricity production process is also utilized. In this way, a
very high overall efficiency of around 90% or more can be achieved. The smaller the plant, the
lower the electrical efficiency and the higher the proportion of heat generated.
Cogeneration of combine heat and power (CHP) plants that use fossil fuels produce
electricity at a cost of €84-111/MWh, depending on the size of the plant. This includes a „heat
bonus‟ of €33-39/MWh. Compared with the market price for electricity of around €42/MWh,
CHP plants are therefore very expensive. Decentralized energy production plants have the
advantage that, based on current costing, they are not subject to grid changes.
In the long term, fuel cells could potentially reach electrical efficiencies of 60%, ie
similar values to current large gas-fired combined cycle plants. Decentralized energy supply
systems are ideal in the winter, when the heat generated as a by-product can be used for heating
purposes. During spring and autumn with low heat demand and summer with no heat demand,
decentralized systems have a significant disadvantage in that their efficiency falls below 40%
(electrical). This value is clearly lower than for large plants, even taking into account
transmission losses. Future residential buildings will have increasingly better insulation
standards. This reduces their heat demand, making decentralized generation less attractive.

7. Large-scale plants
Large plants include large-scale hydropower (above 10MWe capacity), gas-fired
combined cycle plants (also referred to as combined cycle gas turbine power plants, CCGT),
coal-fired power plants using hard or brown coal and nuclear plants.
In Switzerland, around 60% of total consumption is currently covered by large-scale
hydropower. The options for further expansion are very limited as almost all suitable locations
have already used. The associated potential capacity increase in Switzerland is estimated to be
around 2000-2500 MWe, or just below 20% of the average available capacity.
Nuclear power plants
Besides hydropower, nuclear power is currently the only large-scale technology that is
not associated with carbon dioxide emissions and is therefore independent of the development of
carbon costs.
The reactors available on the market today are third generation reactors offering
improved safety compared with their predecessors. They are highly competitive in terms of
production costs. Nuclear energy is characterized by low sensitivity to fluctuating fuel costs,
because their proportion of total costs per kilowatt-hour produced is only 12%. The main
disadvantages of nuclear energy are lack of political acceptance for the construction and
operating of new nuclear power plants are the issue of management of the resulting radioactive
waste. Such waste has to be disposed of safely for time periods up to 100.000 years. This is
where the fourth generation of NPP, which is currently under development, comes in. These
reactors will use around ten times less nuclear fuel and will produce significantly less radioactive
waste. The majority of the waste will have to be stored for only 100 to 300 years. In addition,
these reactors can re-use existing waste as fuel. This not only saves fuel, but also eliminates
highly active radioactive waste in a sensible manner. Fourth-generation nuclear power plants
have an inherent safety system that prevents radioactive material being released from the reactor
in any situation, independent of the control system. However, this reactor generation is unlikely
to be commercially available before 2030 at the earliest.
A cost comparison of the three large-scale options based on 2006 prices shows that,
taking into account carbon dioxide costs, nuclear energy is far by a cheapest. Due to carbon
costs, hard coal power stations are around 40% more expensive than NPP. The price of
electricity from gas-fired combined cycle power plants is currently around €72-98/MWh, ie
twice the price of nuclear energy. In 2002, the cost difference was still very low, because the
massive increases in gas prices and today‟s carbon dioxide costs could not be predicted.

8. Switzerland’s option
It can be concluded from the above discussion that there are no clear favorites for future
electricity generation. Each technology has advantages and disadvantages, be it of an economics,
environmental or social nature.
For timing reasons, a new nuclear power plant will be unable to meet the power supply
shortfall expected during the winter months from 2012. This means that the focus will be on gas-
fired combined cycle plants as an interim solution. However, under the current boundary
conditions, Axpo regards compensation of the carbon dioxide emissions generated through
operation of the required number of gas-fired combined cycle plants in Switzerland as not being
feasible. Based on risk consideration, Axpo will not rely on a single technology, but instead will
aim for broad diversification. This means that, after gas-fired combined cycle power plants, the
objective should be to construct new nuclear power plants to replace existing ageing plants.
A sustainable power supply for Switzerland can only be ensured with a balanced
electricity mix from new energies, hydropower, gas-fired combined cycle power plants and
nuclear energy. The motto for the energy sector clearly has to be „as well as‟ and not „either/or‟.
Citizens, industry and politicians should act as a matter of urgency to ensure that Switzerland can
continue to rely in the future on a secure, competitive and environmentally friendly energy
supply. [+6100]