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Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation
requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Copyright © 2013
by Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved.
Economic Outlook 2014:
Springing Into A Stronger
Recovery
Beth Ann Bovino
Chief U.S. Economist
May 5, 2014
Data as of April 20, 2014
•  Now in its 5th year, the U.S. recovery faces
economic headwinds
• Export slowdown
• Stimulus reversal
• Fed policy unwind
• People leaving the jobs market
•  The reasons for optimism
• Washington compromise + Fed policy
• Robust private demand & hiring, despite shocks
• A strengthening housing market
• Consumers are opening their checkbooks
• Manufacturing returns to the U.S.
A Pickup In Growth Ahead
2
Low Unemployment Improve Consumer Moods
3
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and University of Michigan Survey Research Center, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services projections
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Consumer sentiment Unemployment Rate (right)
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Net worth Financial assets
Higher Home and Stock Prices Push
Household Net Wealth Higher
(% of after-tax income)
Source: Federal Reserve, S&P Economics projections
Housing Climbs Higher, Despite Dips
•  Recovering from an historic drop
5
Source: S&P/Case-Shiller, October 2013; Census Bureau
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Starts Home prices (%chya, right)
Manufacturing Returns to U.S.
6
Source: Federal Reserve; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services Projections
•  Cheap energy
attracts
manufacturers
•  Equipment
production
largely
recovered
•  Capacity
utilization has
improved
60
65
70
75
80
85
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Business equipment (real, left scale) Capacity Utilization, mfg (Right)
•  On balance, positives seem to outweigh the risks
•  Risk of another U.S. recession is now 10% to 15%
•  It’s Down from a 20% projection in April, 2012 and
a 40% projection in August 2011
We’re Not There Yet, But…
7
Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of
Standard & Poor’s. Copyright © 2013 by Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved.
Thank You
Beth Ann Bovino
Chief U.S. Economist
bethann.bovino@standardandpoors.com
Copyright © 2013 by Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved.
No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified,
reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor’s Financial
Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors,
officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not
responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any
data input by the user. The Content is provided on an “as is” basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED
TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT
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possibility of such damages.
Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact. S&P’s
opinions, analyses and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions,
and do not address the suitability of any security. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and
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perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives.
To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certain regulatory purposes, S&P reserves the
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April Jobs Report - Standard & Poor's

  • 1. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Copyright © 2013 by Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved. Economic Outlook 2014: Springing Into A Stronger Recovery Beth Ann Bovino Chief U.S. Economist May 5, 2014 Data as of April 20, 2014
  • 2. •  Now in its 5th year, the U.S. recovery faces economic headwinds • Export slowdown • Stimulus reversal • Fed policy unwind • People leaving the jobs market •  The reasons for optimism • Washington compromise + Fed policy • Robust private demand & hiring, despite shocks • A strengthening housing market • Consumers are opening their checkbooks • Manufacturing returns to the U.S. A Pickup In Growth Ahead 2
  • 3. Low Unemployment Improve Consumer Moods 3 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and University of Michigan Survey Research Center, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services projections 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Consumer sentiment Unemployment Rate (right)
  • 4. 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 Net worth Financial assets Higher Home and Stock Prices Push Household Net Wealth Higher (% of after-tax income) Source: Federal Reserve, S&P Economics projections
  • 5. Housing Climbs Higher, Despite Dips •  Recovering from an historic drop 5 Source: S&P/Case-Shiller, October 2013; Census Bureau -20 -10 0 10 20 30 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Starts Home prices (%chya, right)
  • 6. Manufacturing Returns to U.S. 6 Source: Federal Reserve; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services Projections •  Cheap energy attracts manufacturers •  Equipment production largely recovered •  Capacity utilization has improved 60 65 70 75 80 85 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Business equipment (real, left scale) Capacity Utilization, mfg (Right)
  • 7. •  On balance, positives seem to outweigh the risks •  Risk of another U.S. recession is now 10% to 15% •  It’s Down from a 20% projection in April, 2012 and a 40% projection in August 2011 We’re Not There Yet, But… 7
  • 8. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Copyright © 2013 by Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved. Thank You Beth Ann Bovino Chief U.S. Economist bethann.bovino@standardandpoors.com
  • 9. Copyright © 2013 by Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an “as is” basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact. S&P’s opinions, analyses and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor except where registered as such. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certain regulatory purposes, S&P reserves the right to assign, withdraw or suspend such acknowledgement at any time and in its sole discretion. S&P Parties disclaim any duty whatsoever arising out of the assignment, withdrawal or suspension of an acknowledgment as well as any liability for any damage alleged to have been suffered on account thereof. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees. STANDARD & POOR’S, S&P, GLOBAL CREDIT PORTAL and RATINGSDIRECT are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC.