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The Labor Market Situation - January 2014 Jobs Report
- 1. DRAFT The Labor Market Situation in January February 10, 2014 Dr. Jennifer Hunt Chief Economist U.S. Department of Labor 0 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 0
- 2. DRAFT Payroll survey: unexpectedly weak 1-month change, in thousands January 2014 142 December 2013 89 November 2013 272 12-month change, in thousands January 2013 to 2014: 2,291 Average: 191 1 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 1
- 3. DRAFT But the longer trend still shows steady growth 2 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 2
- 4. Two employment surveys: CES & Payroll-concept-adjusted CPS DRAFT Household and payroll survey employment, seasonally adjusted, March 2001 January 2014 3 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 3
- 5. DRAFT Explanation Last month we blamed Idiosyncratic: accountants, motion pictures Weather: construction So how do these look this time? 4 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 4
- 6. DRAFT Employment growth by super-sector this month 5 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 5
- 7. DRAFT Employment growth by super-sector over the year 6 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 6
- 8. DRAFT Construction saw the largest 1-month increase since 2007 (but this may be seasonal or rebound from December) 1-month change, in thousands January 2014 48 December 2013 -22 November 2013 32 12-month change, in thousands January 2013 to 2014: 179 Average: 15 7 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 7
- 9. DRAFT Details Construction (January reference week mild; context of layoff month) Dec: -22,000 Jan: +48,000 Accountants still MIA Dec: -32,000 Jan: +5000 Motion pictures Dec: -11,000 Jan: +6000 Retail (return from unusually high in Dec) Dec: +63,000 Jan: -13,000 8 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 8
- 10. DRAFT Employment growth by super-sector peak to trough 9 Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 9
- 11. DRAFT January 2014 December 2013 November 2013: January 2013: 10Filename/RPS Number 6.6 % 6.7 % 7.0 % 7.9 % Office of the Chief Economist 10
- 12. DRAFT January 2014: December 2013: November 2013: January 2013: 11Filename/RPS Number 58.8 % 58.6 % 58.6 % 58.6 % Office of the Chief Economist 11
- 13. DRAFT LFP has been essentially flat since October January 2014: December 2013: November 2013: January 2013: 12Filename/RPS Number 63.0 % 62.8 % 63.0 % 63.6 % Office of the Chief Economist 12
- 14. Long-term unemployment rate ticked down, but remains highest since 1983 January 2014: December 2013: November 2013: January 2013: 13Filename/RPS Number DRAFT 2.3 % 2.5 % 2.6 % 3.0 % Office of the Chief Economist 13
- 15. DRAFT Thank you! 14Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 14
- 16. DRAFT CBO Report: Economic Projections Deficit, as a Percent of GDP Average, 1974-2013 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2007 15Filename/RPS Number 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Office of the Chief Economist 15
- 17. DRAFT CBO Report: Labor Force Projections Labor Force Participation Rate 68.0 Actual 66.0 Projected 64.0 62.9 62.0 60.8 60.0 58.0 56.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 16Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 16
- 18. DRAFT CBO Report: Economic Projections Labor Income, Share of GDP Share of GDP 62.0 61.0 Actual 60.0 Projected 59.0 58.0 57.0 56.0 55.0 54.0 1980 17Filename/RPS Number 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Office of the Chief Economist 17
- 19. DRAFT Government job losses unprecedented 18Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 18
- 20. DRAFT Private-sector growth over past 5 recoveries Recovery comparison: private sector job growth 55 months after official end of the recession 14000 12000 jobs added (in thousands) 10000 8000 Mar-‐7 5 6000 Nov-‐82 Mar-‐9 1 Nov-‐01 4000 Jun-‐09 + 12,737 + 11,970 + 8,488 + 4,523 + 7,318 2000 0 -‐2000 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 months after the official end of recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics 19Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist 19