Teacher training material for teaching about climate change adaptation

1. Climate Change in Wales
Welsh Baccalaureate Teacher Training Day
Cardiff 07/12/11
Dr Jeanette Reis (Climate Change Consortium, Cardiff University)
Paul Parker (Severn Estuary Partnership, Cardiff University)

2. Overview
• Purpose: to increase awareness of climate change science, local case
studies and teaching tools
• Content:
– Basic facts and figures
• The global perspective
• The welsh perspective
• The Severn Estuary
– Teaching tools
• The string game
• The adaptation challenge
• Education pack
• Outcomes:
– Improved understanding of the science behind climate change
– Improved awareness of information sources, case studies and teaching
tools
– Improved skills to deliver climate change lessons in a fun and
interactive way.

3. Basic Facts and Figures
The global perspective
Figure 1. The Greenhouse Effect
Principle of the
“Greenhouse Effect”
The sun shines down on the
surface of the earth. About
half the heat naturally
reflects back out into space.
When greenhouse gases
such as carbon dioxide and
methane are released into
our atmosphere, they trap
heat and stop it reflecting
back out into space. This
causes additional warming
of the earth surface, ocean
and atmosphere… just like a
greenhouse! Source: www. global-greenhouse-warming.com
Eg. If outside, ask pupil to take off their coat for a
few moments and then put it back on again!

4. Carbon Dioxide
Did you know?
Carbon dioxide is released into the
atmosphere from volcanic eruptions and
burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and
gas. However, most methane gas is
produced by cattle!
Levels of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere significantly
increased around 1900. This co-
incided with the Industrial
Revolution. At this time, levels
rose from about 250 parts per
million to more than 375 parts
per million.
Source:
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/
mains2-2.html
Ask pupils what they think will happen if
you shake a bottle of lemonade and then
open it. This is CO2. Where does it go?

5. Global Results- Temperature 2029 and 2099
Source:http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_dat
a/ar4/wg1/en/figure-spm-6.html
Low level of
greenhouse
gas
emissions
Medium level
of
greenhouse
gas emissions
High level of
greenhouse
gas
emissions
Did you know?
It is very difficult to
predict the amount of
greenhouse gases we
are likely to release in
the future. The
greater the amount
released, the higher
the predicted
temperatures.
Ask pupils how long
they are likely to charge
their mobile phones for,
how long they will use
hairdryers next week,
next year etc. Can’t
guess???
What’s the difference between weather and climate??? Average geographical scales and conditions!

6. Global Results- Rainfall 2099 cf 1999
December, January, February (UK Winter) June, July, August (UK Summer)
Assuming medium levels of greenhouse gas emissions, precipitation in the form of rain, snow,
sleet and hail is expected to increase by up to 20% in many Northern areas during the months
of December, January and February. However, significant decreases of up to 20% are expected
for areas such as North East Africa and Central America.
Reductions in precipitation of up to 20% are expected during the months of June, July and
August across much of Europe and Africa.

7. Global Results- Sea Level since 1955
Source:
http://www.ipcc.ch/publicat
ions_and_data/ar4/wg1/en
/figure-5-20.html
Water Expansion- Water expands as it warms up. This is thought
by scientists to be the most dominant factor (>50%) in sea level
change.
Melting Ice- The second most important factor is melting land
ice. Water in glaciers and ice sheets has often been trapped as ice
for tens of thousands of years. When land based glaciers and ice
sheets melt, water flows into the sea and sea level rises.

8. What Does this Mean for Wales?
Although the climate of the world is changing, effects could be different depending
on where we live.
http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content/view/1492/499/
Data based on medium emissions scenario. Sourced from UKCP09
Temperature
Changes 2080s
Summer Rainfall
Changes 2080s
Winter Rainfall
Changes 2080s
Sea Level
Changes 2080s
Following compression and subsequent “bouncing back” of land masses during the
last Ice Age, northern parts of Wales are rising very slowly (0.07cm per year). This
effect may reduce predicted sea level rises in North and West Wales.

9. Welsh Implications
Health
and
wellbeing
Food supply
and natural
resources
Settlement
Critical
infrastructure
Industry
Mitigate
risks
Eg. Lower
carbon
emissions
Adapt to
risks
Eg.
Modify
houses
Climate change
See education pack
for examples and
activities

10. Severn Estuary Partnership
Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
Severn Case Study

11. Severn Estuary Partnership
Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
Everything is Related
The Severn Estuary Partnership provides a
unique neutral role linking people and
organisations for the future of the estuary.

12. Severn Estuary Partnership
Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
How Is “Everything’s Related”???
Eg. effect of the natural
environment on human activities.
Rhoda Ballinger, Cardiff University,
http://www.severnestuary.net/sep/partnership/do
cs/ClimateChangeReportCard1.pdf Produced for
the IMCORE project.

13. Severn Estuary Partnership
Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
Flood risk: characteristics
• 1 in 1000 flood- Newport Area.
(Climate Change factor-100 years)

14. Severn Estuary Partnership
Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
Flood risk & climate change
Chepstow
Whole estuary rise
30 – 40 cm by
2080
• Some evidence of more storms over last 2
decades BUT not above levels of the 1920s
• Little evidence of human impact
• Little evidence of increase in intensity or
frequency of storms over the UK in the future
• Risk to estuary is from higher sea levels plus an
intense storm event

15. Severn Estuary Partnership
Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
Impacts of flood risk & Shoreline Management Planning

16. Severn Estuary Partnership
Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
Coastal defences on the Estuary

18. Severn Estuary Partnership
Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
IMCORE Coastal Climate Change
– INTERREG IVB project
– Key outputs
• Guidelines on coastal adaptation
to climate change
– Focus on spatial planning
(development of lowlying
land around the estuary)
• Socio-economic scenarios
associated with climate change
• Report cards simplifying science
on climate change
• Education pack & activities
12
6
3
2
1
1
1
1
Development & Flood Risk
Nature Conservation
Renewable Energy Generation
Building Design
Cross-Border Working
Sustainability of Coastal Towns
Transport
Archaeology
Development & Flood Risk
“…Number one is flooding…huge issue…”;
“…flooding is our big concern…”;
“…we have a small hamlet…really in
danger…”;
“…so much of our urban development is in
very vulnerable locations...”

19. Severn Estuary Partnership
Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
Further Information and Data Sources
•State of the Severn Estuary Report - http://www.severnestuary.net/sep/publications/soser.html
•The report aims to provide a non-technical overview of the current ‘State of the Severn
Estuary’, informing a wide ranging audience – including Estuary locals and industry professionals
alike – on why the Estuary is so unique.
•Severn Estuary Gateway - http://www.severnestuary.net
•IMCORE - http://www.severnestuary.net/sep/imcore/imcore_policyplanning.html
•DeltaNet - http://www.severnestuary.net/sep/partnership/deltanet.html
•Beacons YoCCo – http://www.yocco.org

20. Severn Estuary Partnership
Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
•Other activity ideas and data sources /
climate change information can be found in
the ‘Adapting to Climate Change in Wales’
Education resorce pack for teachers and
pupils of Key Stage 4.
•http://www.severnestuary.net/yocco/educ
ation.htm

21. The Adaptation Challenge
Working in groups, imagine you are “Scott”, a 16
year old resident of Abernewydd.
Let’s explore Scott’s future……
Adapt house?
Energy supply?
Transport?

22. Instructions
See how well your group has adapted Scott’s
house to climate change
How well you’ve adapted will be measured by how many tokens
your group has at the end of the game
The winning group will have the most tokens at the end (12 to
start)!
For each time period (2040; 2060; 2080) we are going change:
•Your personal circumstances
•Government support
•Natural events
We’ll throw the dice and dependent on the outcome, your group
will LOSE or GAIN tokens

23. 2040
– DID YOU ADAPT SCOTT’S HOUSE?
– If you did, adaptation cost = 3 tokens

24. Over the Next Decades …..

25. Scott’s Personal Circumstances Change ….
Throw your dice

26. Scott’s Personal Circumstances Change ….
1 His insurer goes bankrupt – LOSE 2 TOKENS
2 He has difficulty getting house insurance - LOSE 1
TOKENS
3 He falls behind on mortgage payments – LOSE 1 TOKEN
4 His partner inherits a fortune – GAIN 3 TOKENS
5 He develops a water-based tourist business – GAIN 2
TOKENS
6 He wins the lottery – GAIN 4 TOKENS

27. Government Support Changes …
Throw your die

28. Government Support Changes …
1 Large rise in council tax – LOSE 2 TOKENS
2 Small increase in council tax – LOSE 1 TOKEN
3 Rise in fuel tax – LOSE 1 TOKEN
4 Small government grant for house adaptation – GAIN
1 TOKEN
5 Large government grant for house adaptation – GAIN
2 TOKENS
6 Government provides river defences – GAIN 3
TOKENS

29. Natural Events Occur
Throw your die

30. Natural Events Occur
• 1 Drought – LOSE 1 TOKEN
• 2 Big freeze – LOSE 1 TOKEN
• 3 Perfect summer days – GAIN 1 TOKEN
• 4 No major event
5 River floods – LOSE 1 TOKEN or 2 if his insurance
company went bankrupt
• 6 Major storm – LOSE 3 TOKENS or 4 if his
insurance company went bankrupt

31. Your Score So Far …
Talk through implications of these changes
and repeat for time periods 2060 and 2080
if you wish.

32. What This Game Has Taught Us
• Various factors will affect
your ability to adapt to
future climate change
• Some of these are ‘chance’
factors e.g.
winning the lottery
• Others you or government
can plan for
• There are lots of adaptation
options

33. Quick Recap
– Basic facts and figures
• The global perspective
• The welsh perspective
• The Severn Estuary
– Teaching tools
• The adaptation challenge
• Education pack and website

34. Thank You!
For more information, go to:
http://www.severnestuary.net
http://ww.yocco.org
Or Email
ReisJ@cardiff.ac.uk
ParkerPR@cardiff.ac.uk