Loudoun Housing Fulton Report for the end of2008

1. Loudoun County
Housing Market Analysis
December 2008 Data
Prepared by Senior Consultant, Rosemary deButts (MIRM)
FULTON RESEARCH
AND CONSULTING, INC.
11350 Random Hills Road
Suite 330
Fairfax, VA 22030
540.338.2212 Direct
1.703.673.9950 Fax
www.fultonresearch.com

2. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
Executive Summary
Zip Code Sales Month's Supply Inventory Median Sales Price Average DOMP
Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07
Loudoun 407 20% 9% 5.3 ‐11% ‐38% $315,000 4% ‐23% 101 7% ‐3%
Aldie 20105 20 82% 82% 4.5 ‐48% ‐61% $505,699 5% 37% 105 192% 94%
Middleburg 20117 2 ‐33% ‐50% 30.0 48% 122% $839,950 2% 125% 363 125% 25%
Purcellville 20132 11 22% ‐35% 12.0 ‐22% 19% $458,455 37% 0% 163 44% 9%
Round Hill 20141 7 ‐22% 75% 10.1 14% ‐49% $310,000 ‐3% ‐50% 273 207% 221%
Ashburn 20147 51 31% 2% 4.6 ‐16% ‐43% $362,160 7% ‐3% 79 ‐8% ‐16%
Ashburn 20148 28 180% ‐36% 6.0 ‐61% 31% $524,991 13% 8% 62 19% 15%
Chantilly 20152 28 22% ‐10% 5.4 ‐5% ‐18% $463,924 5% ‐18% 61 ‐9% ‐26%
Hamilton 20158 10 233% 400% 2.9 ‐78% ‐90% $833,470 30% 78% 198 ‐11% 106%
Sterling 20164 84 29% 87% 3.9 2% ‐68% $208,062 8% ‐30% 84 ‐7% ‐33%
Sterling 20165 34 21% 17% 3.9 ‐6% ‐51% $388,147 26% ‐3% 112 13% 6%
Dulles 20166 13 18% 86% 4.7 17% ‐54% $376,090 34% 13% 58 ‐27% ‐49%
Leesburg 20175 40 43% 43% 5.5 ‐29% ‐46% $390,188 26% ‐16% 113 9% ‐8%
Lucketts 20176 75 53% 63% 5.2 ‐32% ‐59% $415,736 51% 9% 110 ‐6% ‐11%
Lovettsville 20180 2 ‐67% ‐60% 34.0 219% 62% $519,450 25% 22% 340 204% 110%
Waterford 20197 2 0% 0% 21.5 ‐4% 16% $722,350 416% ‐11% 58 ‐79% 81%
Source: MRIS Black font indicates an improvement; red font indicates a loss
Twelve Month Trend (as shown by blue lines on the following pages); positive indicators shown in dark blue type
Total Sales UP Increased 20% from November after five consecutive months of declines
Detached Sales Down December's 188 sales of detached units was 15.3% less than the 2008 average
Attached Sales UP Sales of attached units exceeded sales of detached units for the last three consecutive months
Condo Sales Flat Averaging 22 units per month in 2008 compared to 27 in 2007 (‐18.5%)
Median Sales Price Down December's median was $59,950 below the 12‐month high in February 2008
Avg Close Price: Detached Down Decreased in December by $81,846 (‐14.4%) since the high in January 2008
Avg Close Price: Attached Down Decreased in December by $85,899 (‐25.1%) since the high in January 2008
Avg Close Price: Condo Flat The December average was 24.5% below the high recorded in October (‐$64,994)
Close Price to List Price % UP Exceeded 90% nine of twelve months in 2008
Supply of Inventory (MSI) DOWN Less than six months for the last seven consecutive months; the 2007 average was 8.3 months
Days on Market DOWN The year‐end average was 4.9% less than the 2007 average
Short Sales, Foreclosure Solds Up Jumped 40.3% in December from November
Short Sales, Foreclosure Listings Up Jumped 35% in December from November
Page 2 of 15

3. Loudoun County Housing Analysis
Notes concerning the data in this analysis
1. As of October 31, 2008, zip code 20184 (Upperville) is included in 20117 (Middleburg); 20135 (Bluemont) is included in 20141 (Round Hill); 20129
(Paeonian Springs) is included in 20197 (Waterford); and 22066 (Great Falls) is included in 20165 (Sterling).
2. As of October 31, 2008, list price refers to quot;original list pricequot;.
3. House types excluded from this analysis include quot;bed & breakfastquot;, quot;mobilequot;, quot;otherquot;, quot;garage/park spacequot;, quot;house of worshipquot;, quot;dwelling w/rentalquot;, quot;double
widequot;, quot;vacation homequot;, or quot;vacation rentalquot;.
4. Year‐to‐Date price stratification analysis added November 30, 2008.
5. Sales and listings with foreclosure/short sale designations as a percentage of total sales and total listings analysis added November 30, 2008.
6. As of December 31, 2008, listings includes the quot;activequot;, quot;contingency/kick outquot;, quot;contingency/no kickoutquot;, and quot;app regquot; statuses. Listings excludes the
quot;contractquot;, quot;expiredquot; and quot;withdrawnquot; statuses.
7. As of December 31, 2008, an analysis of the foreclosures and short sales by subdivision was added.
Page 3 of 15

4. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
Loudoun County Existing Home Sales/Median Sales Prices
Loudoun County Existing Home Sales/Median Sales Prices
2000/2008
Year Total Sales Median Sales Price
Units % Change $ % Change
2000 5,019
, $
$209,000
,
2001 6,179 23.1% $237,500 13.6%
2002 6,735 9.0% $269,000 13.3%
2003 8,255 22.6% $309,900 15.2%
2004 9,381 13.6% $390,000 25.8%
2005 9,123 ‐2.8% $485,000 24.4%
2006 5,919
, ‐35.1% $
$484,900
, 0.0%
2007 5,127 ‐13.4% $439,560 ‐9.4%
2008 5,380 4.9% $346,500 ‐21.2%
Source: MRIS
Loudoun County Existing Home Sales and Median Sales Prices: 2000 ‐ 2008
10,000 $600,000
9,381
9,123
MSP
$550,000
9,000 Sales 8,255
$485,000 $484,900 $500,000
8,000
8 000
edian Sales Price
otal Annual Sales
$439,560 $450,000
6,735
7,000
$390,000
6,179 $400,000
6,000 $346,500
5,919 $350,000
,
5,019
Me
To
$309,900
$
5,000 5,380
5,127
$300,000
$269,000
4,000 $237,500 $250,000
$209,000
3,000 $200,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Page 4 of 15

5. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
YTD Existing Home Sales Price Stratification
Close Price 2007 2008
1,400
1,300 1,323
< $200K
< $200K 83 759
1,227
$200s 553 1,300
1,142
1,200
$300s 1,323 1,227
$400s 1,142 737
1,000
$500s 719 590
2007
es
Total YTD Sale
$600s 551 339 759
800 737 719 2008
$700s 324 193
$800s 177 103 590
553 551
600
$900s 75 56
$1Ms 156 66
400 339 324
$
> $2M 24 10
Total 5,127 5,380 193 177 156
200 103
83 75 56 66
24 10
2007 vs. 2008 Variance
0
< $200K 814.5%
< $200K $200
$200K $200s $300s
$300 $400s
$400 $500s
$500 $600s
$600 $700s
$700 $800s
$800 $900s
$900 $1Ms
$1M > $2M
$2M
$200s 135.1%
Source: MRIS
$300s ‐7.3%
$400s ‐35.5% The only units that had more annual sales in 2008 compared to 2007 were those priced below $300,000. The number of sales for
homes priced below $200,000 is up by 815%.
$500s ‐17.9%
$600s ‐38.5%
$700s ‐40.4%
$800s ‐41.8%
$900s ‐25.3%
$1Ms ‐57.7%
> $2M
$ ‐58.3%
Page 5 of 15

6. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
Monthly Sales (Last Twelve Months)
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 20.1%
600
Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 9.1%
599
554 573
550
12 Month High: Jun 08 599 569 501
12 Month Low: Jan 08 257 500
464
2008 Average 448
Monthly Sales
432
450
2007 Average 427
2006 Average 437 380
400
407
339
Sales rebounded in December after five 350 305
consecutive months of declines and
300
ended the year with a 5% increase in unit 257
sales over2007. Based on the steadily
250
increasing sales through June 2008, the
12‐month trend was us for the year. 200
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Total Sales
90 84
High Sales: 20164 84 80 75
Low Sales: 20117/20197/20129 2
70
Sterling posted the highest sales among 60
Monthly Sales
51
these markets in every month but
50
February and its year‐end percentage of
40
total county‐wide sales was 18% 40 34
compared to 10.6% in 2007. The
28 28
30
Ashburn zip code of 20147 gathered
20
14.4% of the total sales in 2008, showing
20 13
a percentage decline from 16.5% in 2007. 11 10
7
10
2 2 2
0
20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197
Source: MRIS
Page 6 of 15

7. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
Median Sales Price (Last Twelve Months)
$400,000
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 4.0%
Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐23.2%
$374,950
12 Month High: Feb 08 $374,950 $375,000 $370,000
12 Month Low: Nov 08 $303,000 $358,225 $359,000
2008 Average $341,891
Median Sales Price
$350,000
2007 Average $427,313 $350,000
$351,000
2006 Average $465,421 $350,000 $335,000
After five consecutive months declines, $325,000
$315,000
the MSP rebounded slightly in $320,000
$316,518
December. Although it's too soon to
predict, rising prices may signal the end $300,000
$303,000
of the decessionary period. Median
prices were down
$275,000
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Median Sales Price
$900,000 $833,470
$839,950
High MSP: 20117 $839,950
$800,000
Low MSP: 20164 $208,062
$722,350
$700,000
The difference in median sales prices
Median Sales Price
between Middleburg (20117) and $600,000 $519,450
$524,991
$505,699
Sterling (20164) was 300%. The $458,455
$463,924
$500,000 $390,188
difference in sales was 2 in Middleburg
$388,147 $415,736
$376,090
and 84 in Sterling during December. $362,160
$400,000
$310,000
$300,000
$208,062
$200,000
$100,000
20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197
Source: MRIS
Page 7 of 15

8. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
Monthly Sales (Last Twelve Months) by Product Type
High SFD Sales: Jul 08 305
350
Low SFD Sales: Jan 08 141 305
304
293
SFD
High SFA Sales: Jun 08 273 300 271
SFA
Low SFA Sales: Jan 08 101 238 238
250 CON
High CON Sales: Oct 08 32 273
Monthly Sales
209
258
Low CON Sales: Feb 08 10 188 202
247 246 237
200
2008 SFD Average 222 164
149 191
141 201
2007 SFD Average 224 188
150 173
2008 SFA Average 205 156
146
2007 SFA Average 176
100
2008 CON Average 22
101 32
2007 CON Average 27 30 26
25 25 22
50 21
19 19 17
15 10
The sales of attached units has exceeded 0
the number of detached units for three
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
consecutive months.
Average Close Price by Product Type
High SFD ACP: Jul 08 $567,988
$600,000 $567,988
$559,098
Low SFD ACP: Jan 08 $472,486
$533,489
$537,842
$531,740
$550,000
High SFA ACP: Jun 08 $342,530 $506,646
$555,552 $491,520 $486,142
Low SFA ACP: Jan 08 $250,314 $486,866 $472,486
$500,000
High CON ACP: Oct 08 $265,392
$484,294
Average Close Price
$450,000
Low CON ACP: Feb 08 $161,356 SFD
2008 SFD Average $517,805
$400,000
2007 SFD Average $648,486 $342,530
$324,747
2008 SFA Average $291,373 $350,000 $309,510 $310,678 $301,319 $302,619
2007 SFA Average $385,124 $291,299 $272,558
$270,798
$300,000 $265,392 $256,631
$263,477
2008 CON Average $208,185 $250,314
$250,000
2007 CON Average $263,942
$249,613
$200,000 $229,357
$217,064
Compared to 2007, the ACP for detached $207,172 $201,768 $205,287 $200,398
$197,908
$190,166
$150,000
units declined 20.2%; for attached units it $172,737
$161,356
declined 24.3%; and for condominium $100,000
units it declined 21.1% by year end.
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Source: MRIS
Page 8 of 15

9. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
Month's Supply of Inventory (Last Twelve Months)
14.0
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 ‐10.58801% 12.6
13.0
Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐37.88488%
12.0
12 Month High: Jan 08 12.6 10.9
11.0
12 Month Low: Aug 08 5.1
2008 Average 7.1 10.0
9.0
2007 Average 8.3
MSI
9.0
2006 Average 8.3
7.7
8.0
The 2008 average of 7.1 months is 15.4% 7.0 6.3
5.98
less than the 2007 average and 18.1% 5.6 5.6
5.4 5.2
6.0 5.3
5.1
less than the 2006 average. And, the
5.0
ratio of sales to listings has ranged from
5.1 months to 6.3 months for eight 4.0
consecutive months signaling a large Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
improvement over 2007. However, FRC
considers the market to be in equilibrium
(enough supply to satisfy demand) when Month's Supply of Inventory
the MSI is 4 to 5 months.
40.0
34.0
High MSI: 20180 34.0 35.0
Low MSI: 20158 2.9 30.0
30.0
The markets with the three highest
25.0
supply of inventory each had two sales in 21.5
December making the MSI very high. Six
MSI
20.0
of the fifteen Loudoun markets are in
equilibrium.
15.0 12.0
10.1
10.0
6.0 5.5
5.4 5.2
4.7
4.6
4.5 3.9 3.9
2.9
5.0
0.0
20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197
Source: MRIS
Page 9 of 15

10. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
Average Close Price to Average List Price %
High CP/LP %: Oct 08 93.2% 94% 93.2%
Low CP/LP %: Jan 08 88.0% 92.7%
92.5%
93%
12 Month Average 91.0%
91.8%
91.7%
2008 Average 91.0% 91.5%
91.4%
92%
2007 Average 91.8% 91.1%
2006 Average 90.4%
91%
CP to LP %
90.1% 89.9%
This indicator shows the willingness of 90%
sellers to negotiate price ‐ the lower the
88.5%
89%
percentage the more price discounts are
88.0%
taking place. It is also a sign that sellers
88%
are forced to decrease their asking prices
when their houses remain on the market
87%
too long. Sellers are pricing more
realistically, the long‐term trend is up. 86%
And, the December average was greater
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
than the 2008 overall average.
Average Close Price to Average List Price %
98.0%
96.4%
96.2%
95.5% 95.4%
High CP/LP %: 20197 96.4% 96.0%
94.3%
Low CP/LP %: 20141 81.9%
94.0% 92.6% 92.6%
91.8% 91.4%
92.0%
89.8%
89.2%
90.0%
88.0%
85.7%
85.2%
86.0% 84.8%
84.0%
81.9%
82.0%
80.0%
20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197
Source: MRIS
Page 10 of 15

11. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
Monthly Days on Market (Last Twelve Months)
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 7.4%
140
Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐2.9%
12 Month High: Mar 2008 124 130 123 124
120
12 Month Low: Oct 08 92
119
12 Month Average 108
Monthly DOMP
120
112
2008 Average 108 109
2007 Average 113 110 103
2006 Average 87 101
98
100
94
The 2008 DOMP average is now 4.9%
97
lower than the 2007 average but is still 90 92
23.4% higher than the 2006 average. The
DOMP figure has declined six of the last 80
twelve months but following three
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
consecutive months below 100 days, the
average increased 7.4% in December to
Monthly Days on Market
exceed 100 days.
400
363
340
350
High DOMP: 20117 363
300 273
Low DOMP: 20166 58
Monthly DOMP
250
The fastest moving markets in the county
198
were Ashburn (20147 & 20148), Chantilly 200
163
(20152), Sterling (20164), Dulles (20166)
150
and Waterford/Paeonian Springs (20197‐ 113
112 110
105
20184). All had average DOMP figures of 84
79
100
62 61 58 58
less than 90 days. The slowest moving
markets in December were 50
Middleburg/Upperville (20117/20184),
0
Round Hill (20141), Lovettsville (20180),
20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197
and Hamilton (20158) with averages 6.6
to 12 months.
Source: MRIS
Page 11 of 15

12. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
Foreclosures and Short Sale Designations: Sales
120
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 40.3%
100
101 99
High: Jun 08 101 100
89 94
Low: Nov 08 67
80
Average 87 80 80
Listings: FCSS
69 67
The trendline for short sale and 60
foreclosure sales was flat by year‐end
following three consecutive months of
40
declines although the December figure
increased by 40% compared to
November. At 94 sales, December's 20
short sale and foreclosure sales were 9%
higher than the 9‐month average.
0
Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Foreclosures and Short Sale Designations: Sales
High Sales FCSS: 20164 27
Low Sales FCSS: 20117/20197 0
30
27
Sterling had the highest number of sales
25
of foreclosure and short sale listings
followed by Ashburn (20147) and
Leesburg (20176). By year‐end, Sterling 20 18
Total FC/SS
posted 31.3% of all short sale and
foreclosure sales since April followed by 15
11
second place Leesburg (12.2%) and
10
Ashburn (10.3%). 10
7
5
4
5 3
2 2 2 2 1
0 0
0
20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197
Source: MRIS
Page 12 of 15

13. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
Foreclosures and Short Sale Designations: Listings
450
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 34.9%
421
High: Dec 08 421
390
Low: Aug 08 235 400
Average 302
Listings: FCSS
350
The number of listings in the county with
312
307
a foreclosure, short sale, and/or REO
295
property designation increased by 35% 300
last month and was 8% more than the
255
previous high of 390 reached in May. 252 248
Following four consecutive months of 250 235
increases, the 9‐month trend is up.
200
Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Foreclosures and Short Sale Designations: Listings
High FCSS Listings: 20164 102
Low FCSS Listings: 20117/20197 1
120
102
The more affluent markets in Loudoun,
100
Middleburg (20017) and Waterford
79
(20197), had the fewest foreclosure
80
listings in December.
Total FC/SS
58
60
44
40 31 30 28
Caution : Realtors are not required to
input these designations so these figures 20 12 11
9 6
4
should be used to establish emerging 5
1 1
trends only. These are NOT recorded 0
foreclosures.
20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197
Source: MRIS
Page 13 of 15

14. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
Foreclosures and Short Sale Listings as a Percentage of Total Listings
25.0%
High % FCSS Listings: Dec 08 19.3%
Low % FCSS Listings: Jun 08 7.5%
19.3%
Percentage of Total Listings
20.0%
The 9‐month trend for the percentage of 15.4%
active listings with short sale and 15.0% 13.1%
foreclosure designations rose in 2008. It
11.2%
has exceeded 10% for three consecutive
9.1%
months. 10.0% 8.6% 8.1%
8.0%
7.5%
5.0%
0.0%
Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Foreclosures and Short Sale Sales as a Percentage of Total Sales
High % FCSS Solds: Dec 08 23.1%
25.0% 23.1%
Low % FCSS Solds: May 08 14.4%
19.8%
The blue trendline shows that 20.0% 18.5%
17.8%
17.6%
Percentage of Total Sales
17.3%
foreclosure and short sales in Loudoun 16.9%
County as a percentage of total sales is 14.4%
14.9%
15.0%
also increasing, it crossed the 20% barrier
in December.
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Source: MRIS
Page 14 of 15

15. Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
Foreclosure and Short Sales Foreclosure and Short Sale Listings
by Advertised Subdivision: December 2008 by Advertised Subdivision: December 2008
Zip Code Advertised Subdivision Total FCSS Zip Code Advertised Subdivision Total FCSS
Sales Listings
20164 STERLING PARK 10 20164 STERLING PARK 41
20147 ASHBURN VILLAGE 5 20152 SOUTH RIDING 15
20176 LANSDOWNE ON THE POTOMAC 4 20147 ASHBURN VILLAGE 14
20175 VA KNOLLS 3 20164 NEWBERRY 12
20164 SUGARLAND RUN 3 20165 COUNTRYSIDE 12
20165 COUNTRYSIDE 3 20176 POTOMAC STATION 11
20147 ASHBURN FARM 3 20164 SUGARLAND RUN 11
20176 LOUDOUN HILLS 3 20176 LANSDOWNE 11
20176 POTOMAC STATION 3 20147 ASHBURN FARM 10
20165 POTOMAC LAKES 2 20176 POTOMAC CROSSING 9
20175 HUNTLAND HOMES 2 20148 BRAMBLETON LAND BAY 8
20164 NEWBERRY 2 20164 PEMBROOKE OF LOUDOUN 6
20164 HUNINGTON RIDGE 2 20175 CRESTWOOD HAMLET 6
20176 SYCAMORE HILL 2 20176 FOX CHASE 5
20175 LEESBURG GATEWAY II 2 20176 EDWARDS LANDING 5
20147 BELMONT LAND BAY 2 20176 EXETER 5
20164 STERLING PK SO TH 2 20165 POTOMAC LAKES 5
Partial list: Two or more sales per subdivision 20175 VA KNOLLS 5
Partial list: Five or more sales per subdivision
Source: MRIS
Page 15 of 15