An overview of the macro trend of New World Order. Is the old adage of "America sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold" still current? In this New World Order where power increasingly resides with Brazil, China and India how are people responding and what are the consequences for brands?

1. New World Order.
December 1, 2011

2. Behaviour and culture.
We study people’s behaviour, analyse major cultural developments and
connect them to identify behavioural change.
Some people describe these as trends - for us these trends are better referred
to as TABS as trends is only one component part.

3. When America sneezes...

4. Is this still the case?
China is the largest consumer market for:
Bikes and motorcycles 7%
Shoes 12%
Automobiles 22%
Mobile phones 22%
Luxury goods 19%
Trendwatching asked the question are these markets
Emerging or Emerged?
Are we still in control of our own destiny?
Economic shift - Asian labour costs rise and a major
domestic market.
Purchasing power of the West falls.
Uncontrollable inflation in the West, shrinking import
market.
In the UK, 62% believe the US is losing influence as a
superpower on the world stage

5. What if the world didn’t
look like this?

6. But instead looked like
this?

7. Does that change your
perspective?

8. Consider the diaspora.

9. This is not a good time to be
xenophobic.
To deliver economic growth embracing
skilled workers is crucial.
Always has been.
Study by Duke University found
immigrants made up1/8th US population
but founded 25% of the technology and
engineering firms.
There are 215m first generation
immigrants around the world (3% of
world’s population).
There are more Chinese people living
outside China than French people in
France.

10. America (and Britain) educate foreign
students as scientists and engineers and
then expel them.
Sensible?
The Mayor of New York describes this as
National Suicide.
Chinese tech industry is dominated by
‘sea turtles’.

11. Middle classes are on
the rise.

12. In India strong growth.
In 2001 /02 just 59m
households had income
of $4k+
By 2009/10 this was
around 200m.
While millions live in rural poverty,
millions more are moving to urban
centres and adopting middle-
class lifestyles.
The expanding domestic markets
in BRIC countries will create
demand both internally and
externally.

13. In Brazil 5% of the
population own 85% of
the wealth.
Emergence of the C-
class, a lower middle
class.
The result? Strong
domestic consumption.

14. Within one generation the
Chinese middles class will
73% of wealthy consumers in China
be 4x larger than
are under 45.
America’s.
China consumes 28% of the world’s
By 2030 China will have
luxury goods.
1.4bn middle class
64% of Chinese consumers equate consumers.
luxury to success.
Compared to 365m in
41% believe that showing off luxury the US and 414m in
brands exhibits poor taste. Western Europe.
The middle class is estimated to be
157m people - only the US has a
larger middle class.

15. We are already
interested in China,
Brazil and India.

16. The Beijing Olympics was a milestone and
marked the opening of China to the world.
There is already a cultural exchange - not just
political and economic - Dialogue Cafe.
Increasingly we look to the East for guidance.

17. Richemont
Asia Pacific revenue climbed 48% and 41% of their revenues come from the area.
The company now has 323 stores in China.

18. Prada
Floated on HK stock exchange in 2011.
43% of the brand’s global earnings comes from China.

19. Unilever
56% of Unilever’s business comes from outside the US and Europe.
Expect this to be 70-75% by 2012.

20. Harrods London has made itself more Chinese friendly:
75 Mandarin speaking staff.
Recently installed Chinese bank-card terminals allowing
customers to make payments from domestic accounts.
Scour Chinese social networks for feedback.
The result?
40% rise in sales to Chinese tourists in Q1.
Starwood Personalized Travel program.
Includes:
In-hotel Chinese specialist.
Chinese translated collateral.
Convenience of home - including instant noodles.
Chinese friendly menus.
Will roll out across all Starwood hotels in 2012.

22. Mind your Ps and Qs.

23. Expensive - more than US
“Hey guys” greeting
Half naked torsos
Modelled on Greek / Roman concept of
beauty.
Waspy aggressive image.
Pumped perfume.
“Display It, Don’t Spray It”
No Asian shaped design.
Opened in December 2009 and got it
spectacularly wrong.

24. Paul Smith.
Culturally sensitive and respectful.

25. Paul Smith made Japan its commercial
cornerstone over 30 years ago.
200 outlets in Japan
15 outlets in the UK

26. We have a pick ‘n mix
Global Mindset.

27. “We are not losing our culture, we are creating
a new one”
Ashgar Ali, owner, Lahore
Lahore Café Bar
Serves typically ‘Asian’ fare, keema and tikkas alongside sticky toffee pudding and jam roly poly
For breakfast? A ‘Full Muslim.’

28. Smirnoff Nightlife Exchange.
Pride in your own culture and a curiosity of others’ - take your nightlife and share it with other cities.
This is a cultural exchange.

29. It’s about pride in your own culture and heritage...

30. ...and a curiosity about others - Conflict Kitchen
Conflict Kitchen is a politically motivated NYC takeaway restaurant that rotates cuisines
and identities every four months to highlight a different country the US is in conflict with.

31. These signs are gaining traction: Life in a Day
Life in a Day is a user generated film by Ridley Scott and Kevin MacDonald that
encouraged people to upload video footage of their lives on July 24. 4,500 hours of
film was submitted.

32. The Global Mindset attitude is most prevalent amongst millenials.
Young people travel more than any other generation before them
and find it easy to adapt to, and feel affinity with, foreign cultures.
“Millennials, more than any generation are eager to understand
perspectives that are different, event antithetical, to their own, rather than
push them away”
Torrey Taussig; Strategic Communications, Glover Park Group

33. When we travel we are ...more than that, there is a
increasingly seeking local real appetite to explore and
immersive experiences: in learn: 78% of millennials
just three years AirBnB users have stated a strong
have booked 1.9m nights preference for learning
across 184 countries... something new when they
travel.

34. Early signs include: Packabook
Packabook encourages people to explore the world through fiction. It’s a free website
which allows users to discover novels set in locations they intend to visit.

35. Understanding the brand opportunity - Prada ‘Made In’
The ‘Made In’ campaign exposes the global narratives behind Prada products and offers
insight into changing perceptions; ‘Made in India’ comes to mean interesting, not cheap.

36. Pride in cultural icons
and national brands
and branding.

37. The West as much as the East is uncomfortable
with the idea of a McWorld.

38. Increased pride in national icons and an
emergence of soft powers - Titan. The largest
brand no-one seems to have heard of.

39. In China the spirit Baijiu accounts for more
than 30% of the alcoholic drinks market.

40. The top brands in Brazil are all Brazilian. From
Itau (financial services) to Petrobras, to Skol,
Natura and Brahma.

41. Ever wonder why the McFalafel flopped?

42. This guy makes them better.
Israelis go to McDonald’s for a taste of Americana.
That said, with Global Mindset, how would a
McFalafel have fared in NYC?

43. Expect cultural
collisions.

44. As the West loses confidence, it will increasingly be challenged and
increasingly face cultural collisions.
Rejection of patronising western grasp of world cultures - ‘world music’
and ‘Bollywood’ will become faux pas and become increasingly
culturally sensitive and worldly.
English will remain the business language of
choice despite spending more than €1bn in
Shomichelin, Ghana Think Tank. translation services a year in the EU alone.

45. Asia first.

46. Levi’s launched dENiZEN as their ‘global’ brand.
Asia first, US second.

47. Hermès launched a range of high end saris.
Mumbai first, Paris second.

48. British Airways launched their new First Class cabin
on the Shanghai - London route.
China first, US second.

49. Round-up
- Consider the diaspora.
- The middle classes are on the rise.
- We are already interested in China, Brazil and India.
- Mind your ps and qs.
- We have a pick ‘n mix Global Mindset.
- Pride in cultural icons.
- Expect cultural collisions.
- Asia first.

50. Contact.
Twitter: @canvas8
Email: nick@canvas8.com