Chapel Hill 2020 offered the special topic presentation "State of the Community" by Aaron Nelson, president and CEO of the Chapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber of Commerce, at noon Monday, Feb. 6, in the Council Chamber of Chapel Hill Town Hall.
The public was invited to attend or may view the presentation on Chapel Hill Government TV-18 or by streaming video on the Town of Chapel Hill website at http://www.townofchapelhill.org/index.aspx?page=1850.
1. 4thAnnual State of the
Community Report
Aaron Nelson
Chapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber of Commerce
Partnership for a Sustainable Community
2. A bit about Chamber and our
Foundation
The Chamber
◦ Serve and advance the business interests of our 1,100
member employers
Improve members’ bottom line
Grow members’ professional network
Access members access to timely information and decision
makers
Advocate for member business interests and help build a
sustainable community where business can thrive
Our Economic and Community Development Partnership
◦ Raised and invested more that $1 million to the community
since 2004
◦ Launched Green Plus national small business education and
certification program
◦ Accelerating Fourth Sector Enterprises
3. Background on this Report
Our Fourth State of the Community Report
Born out of graduate student research at
UNC
Social, Environmental and Economic
Indicators
Objective: deliver relevant information to
community and business leaders
Thank you to Kristen Smith, director of public
policy and member engagment
4. Population
Jurisdiction 2000 2010 Growth Rate
+17,785
Orange County 116,016 133,801
(15.3%)
Hillsborough 5,513 6,087 +574 (10.4%)
Carrboro 17,668 19,582 +1,914 (10.8%)
Chapel Hill 48,038 57,233 +9,195 (19.1%)
+1,456,659
North Carolina 8,078,824 9,535,483
(18.0%)
U.S. Census Bureau
5. Population Growth
160,000
140,000
133,801
120,000 116,016
100,000
80,000
60,000 48,038 57,233
40,000
17,668 19,582
20,000
5,513 6,087
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Orange County Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough
U.S. Census Bureau
6. 5.1% of 627,683 in projected 6-
county growth
Population Projections 1.4% of projected state growth
Growth
County 2015 2020 Growth Rate 2025
Rate
+24,471 (13.9%) 188,451 +36,706
ALAMANCE 163,982 176,216
(23.8%)
+21,552
CHATHAM 71,053 78,237 +14,376 (18.4%) 85,422
(33.0%)
+54,549 (16.9%) 350,749 +81,824
DURHAM 296,200 323,474
(29.8%)
+75,660
JOHNSTON 195,372 220,591 +50,440 (22.9%) 245,811
(43.1%)
+21,117 (13.6%) 166,001 +31,767
ORANGE 144,885 155,442
(24.0%)
+253,509 +380,265
WAKE 1,034,069 1,160,823 1,287,579
(21.8%) (40.8%)
NC Office of State Budget and
Management
7. 2010 Orange County Population by
Race
Native American 0.4%
Asian 6.7%
Latino/Hispanic 8.2%
African American 11.9%
White 74.4%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%
U.S. Census Bureau
8. 2010 Orange County Population by
Race
100%
90%
80.1% 77.4% 74.4%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20% 15.7%
13.7% 11.9%
10% 8.2%
2.5% 4.1%
0%
0.3% 4.4% 6.7%
1990 2000 2010
White African American Latino/Hispanic Asian
U.S. Census Bureau
9. Minority Race/Ethnicity
African American Hispanic or Latino Asian
35.00%
30.00%
29.5%
25.00%
21.5%
20.00%
15.00% 13.8%
11.9% 11.9%
10.1% 9.7%
10.00%
8.2% 8.2% 8.4%
6.6% 6.4% 6.7%
5.00%
1.7% 2.2%
0.00%
Carrboro
U.S. Census Bureau Hillsborough Chapel Hill Orange County NC
10. Educational Attainment
Orange County North Carolina United States
89.6%
90
82.9% 84.5%
80
70
55.4%
60
50
40
25.6% 27.4%
30
20
10
0
High School Graduate (or Bachelors Degree (or higher)
higher)
U.S. Census Bureau
11. Major Employers 2009-1014 2014 2009
Public Administration 2,420
Other Services (excl Pub Adm) 2,485
Accommodation/Food Services 5,137
Health Care/Social Services 13,574
Educational Services 17,295
Prof/Scientific/Tech Services 6,305
Information 2,249
Retail Trade 4,815
Manufacturing 2,776
Construction 3,751
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000
NC Dept of Commerce
EDIS
12. New Job Growth 2009-2014
Public Administration 185
Accommodation/Food Services 481
Arts/Entertainment/Rec 124
Health Care/Social Services 2,045
Educational Services 1,845
Admin/Supp/Waste Mgmt Services 259
Prof/Scientific/Tech Services 736
Information 266
Construction 153
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
NC Dept of Commerce EDIS
17. 10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
45,000
50,000
5,000
40,000
0
Alamance
Alleghany
Ashe
Beaufort
Bladen
Buncombe
Cabarrus
Camden
Caswell
Chatham
Chowan
Cleveland
Chatham
Craven
Currituck
Davidson
Duplin
Edgecombe
Cumberland
Franklin
Durham
Gates
Granville
Guilford
Harnett
Henderson
US Dept of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
Hoke
Iredell
Johnston
Lee
Lincoln
Macon
Martin
Mitchell
Moore
New Hanover
Onslow
Mecklenburg
Pamlico
Pender
Orange
Person
Polk
Richmond
Rockingham
Rutherford
Scotland
Stokes
Swain
Tyrrell
Vance
Warren
Wake
Watauga
Wilkes
Per Capita Income by County
Yadkin
18. Per Capita Income Change 2007-
2009 Durham-Chapel Hill, NC (MSA) 0.6%
-5.6% Wake
Randolph 0.7%
Person 3.7%
Orange 3.6%
-7.5% Mecklenburg
-3.1% Johnston
-0.8% Durham
-2.0% Chatham
-2.4% Alamance
-0.3% North Carolina
US Dept of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
19. Orange Co Income Levels by
Household $200,000+
$150,000 to
Less than
8% $10,000
$199,999
11%
6%
$100,000 to $10,000 to
$149,999 $34,999
13% 25%
$75,000 to
$99,999
11% $35,000 to
$74,999
26%
NC Department of Commerce
20. % Change in Orange Co Income ‘08 -
v- ‘09
-2.4% $200,000 or more
$150,000 to $199,999 6.5%
-7.6% $100,000 to $149,999
$75,000 to $99,999 3.0%
-4.3% $50,000 to $74,999
$35,000 to $49,999 4.0%
-6.2% $25,000 to $34,999
-6.5% $15,000 to $24,999
$10,000 to $14,999 15.0%
Less than $10,000 12.9%
-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
US Census Bureau
21. % Change in Orange Co Income ‘08 -
v- ‘09
-2.4% $200,000 or more
$150,000 to $199,999 6.5%
-7.6% $100,000 to $149,999
$75,000 to $99,999 3.0%
-4.3% $50,000 to $74,999
$35,000 to $49,999 4.0%
-6.2% $25,000 to $34,999
-6.5% $15,000 to $24,999
$10,000 to $14,999 15.0%
Less than $10,000 12.9%
-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
US Census Bureau
22. Orange County Families Receiving
Food Stamps
7000
5854
6000
5000
4000
2987
3000
1684
2000 1390
1000
0
Orange County Dept of Social Services
23. Water Sales and Accounts
7 24,000
6.5 22,000
Average Annual Sales (million gallons per day)
Number of Customer Accounts
6
20,000
5.5
18,000
5
16,000
4.5
14,000
4
3.5 12,000
3 10,000
FISCAL YEAR
Projected Water Sales Actual Customer Accounts
24. Water Sales and Accounts
Drought
2001/02
10 Drought 24,000
2007/08
9 22,000
Average Annual Sales (million gallons per day)
Number of Customer Accounts
8 20,000
7 18,000
6 16,000
Reclaimed Water to
5 UNC begins 2009 14,000
4 12,000
3 10,000
FISCAL YEAR
Actual Water Sales Projected Water Sales Actual Customer Accounts
25. Monthly Water & Sewer Bills
Average monthly bill based on 5,000 gallons per month use
$100 18%
$90
17%
16%
$92
$80 14%
$70
12%
Increase
Rate
$60
10% 10% 10%
$50 $44 9%
8%
$40
$30
6% 6%
$20 4%
$10
2% 2%
$0 0%
Average Bill Projected Average Bill Rate Increase Projected Rate Increase
26. 2009 County Retail Data
Retail Demand Retail Sales
$3,000,000,000
$2,500,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$2,887,422,337
$1,863,025,918
$1,355,149,927
$1,532,958,131
$1,201,013,563
$2,742,524,973
$264,725,866
$258,724,306
$328,189,079
$1,500,000,000
$674,645,069
$1,000,000,000
$500,000,000
$0
Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Person
NC Department of Commerce
29. Percent of Children Receiving Free or Reduced
Price Lunch by School (Chapel Hill-Carrboro
Schools)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
47% 48% 47%
50%
39% 35%
40%
30% 23% 25% 23% 27% 26% 22% 22%
23% 21% 22%
20% 17% 13%
10%
0%
N.C Dept of Public Instruction
30. Percent of Children Receiving Free or Reduced
Price Lunch by School (Orange County Schools)
100% 94%
89%
90%
80%
70% 66%
60% 57%
50% 42% 40% 46%
39%
40% 34% 34% 33%
30% 20% 20%
20%
10%
0%
N.C Dept of Public Instruction
31. Percent of Students Receiving Free or
Reduced Lunch
Orange County CHCCS
45%
40%
39.0%
35% 32.6%
30%
25% 25.6%
20%
21.7%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
N.C Dept of Public Instruction
32. Chapel Hill/Orange Co. Hotel
Occupancy
72%
69.9%
70%
68% 67.1%
66% 65.0%
63.8%
64%
62%
60% 58.9% 59.5%
58%
56%
54%
52%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD
(Jun)
Chapel Hill Orange County Visitors Bureau
33. 2010 Taxes Generated by Tourists (in Millions)
2010 • In 2010, visitors to
9 8.45 Orange County
8 generated 11.3
7
million in State and
6
5
Local Taxes
4 (including
2.92
3 sales, lodging, food &
2 beverage, gas and
1
other)
0
Local State
Chapel Hill Orange County Visitors Bureau
34. Tourism Spending in Orange County(in
millions)
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Chapel Hill Orange County Visitors Bureau
35. Orange County Tourism Impact
Tourism in Orange County produced
$144 million in 2010, a 5.7% increase
from 2009
Orange County ranked 24th in travel
impact among North Carolinas' 100
counties
Tourism was responsible for 1610 jobs
Travel generated a $27.17 million in
payroll in 2010
36. Total Funding for UNC
Research
$900,000,000
$803,390,675
$800,000,000
$700,000,000
$600,000,000
$500,000,000
$400,000,000
$300,000,000
$200,000,000
$248,997,990
$100,000,000
$0
Office of the Vice Chancellor for Research and
Economic Development
41. Orange County Pregnancy Rates
(per 1000 girls age 15-17)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
White Minority Total
NC State Center for Health Statistics
42. Orange County Infant Mortality Rate
35 (per 1000 live births)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Orange County County: White County: Minority
NC State Center for Health Statistics
43. Infant Mortality Rate Comparison
(per 1,000 live births)
Orange County State
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
NC State Center for Health Statistics
44. Percent of Adults Obese (2010)
North Carolina 28.6%
Wake 24.4%
Durham 26.4%
Orange 17.9%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
NC State Center for Health Statistics
45. Percent of Adults Smoking
(2010)
North Carolina 19.8%
Wake 16.2%
Durham 14.7%
Orange 13.3%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
NC State Center for Health Statistics
46. Female Breast Cancer Incidence Rate (‘03-
’07, per 1,000 people)
Wake 163.7
Person 131.2
Orange 181.2
Durham 156.5
Chatham 160.6
Alamance 134.1
NORTH CAROLINA 149.6
100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190
N.C State Center for Health Statistics
47. Prostate Cancer Incidence Rate (‘03-
’07, per 1,000 people)
Wake 171.8
Person 159.7
Orange 158.3
Durham 186.8
Chatham 177.7
Alamance 153.0
NORTH CAROLINA 153.8
100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
N.C State Center for Health Statistics
48. Lung Cancer Incidence Rate (‘03-’07, per
1,000 people)
Wake 61.2
Person 85.7
Orange 65.1
Durham 72.7
Chatham 65.0
Alamance 76.9
NORTH CAROLINA 75.8
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
N.C State Center for Health Statistics
49. Asthma in Hospital Discharges (Orange
Co., per 100,000)
All Ages Ages (0-14)
135.7
140
120
92.3 97.4 92.3
100 90.1 90.1
80 69.5 72.7
65.7
57.3 55.2
60 50.9 48 50.9 50 50.3
40
20
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
N.C State Center for Health Statistics
50. Location of Orange County Housing
Units
Carrboro Hillsborough Chapel Hill Rest of County
9,258, 16%
21,492, 39
% 2,593, 5%
22,254, 40
%
US Census Bureau
51. Percent Renter-Occupied
Rest of Orange County 18.1%
Chapel Hill 52.4%
Hillsborough 35.9%
Carrboro 61.5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
US Census Bureau
52. Number of Homes Sold in Orange
County
2000 1859 1886 1797 1749
1800 1686
1600
1543
1400 1271
1200
1146 1143 1128
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Greater Chapel Hill Association of REALTORS
53. Orange County Average Housing
Prices $342,740
$350,000
$331,400
$300,000
$320,489 $321,326 $325,020
$250,000 $318,899
$317,847
$298,883
$200,000
$280,592
$150,000
$100,000
$262,920
$50,000
$0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Greater Chapel Hill Association of REALTORS
54. 2010 Average Home Price
$329,918
$350,000
$307,292
$300,000
$255,525
$250,000
$190,985
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
Greater Chapel Hill Association of REALTORS
55. 2010 Average Home Price
$329,918
$350,000
$307,292
$300,000
$255,525
$250,000
$190,985
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
Durham Wake Chatham Orange
Greater Chapel Hill Association of REALTORS
56. Building Permits
Carrboro Chapel Hill Orange County (incl. Hillsborough)
600
500
400
300
200 135
100
45
0 41
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Home Builders Association of Durham, Orange
Chatham
57. Community Home Trust
Units Under Management
233
250
193
200
150
- $20.2M in assessed
100
value
- $314K in property tax
50
0
Community Home Trust
59. Orange County Commuting
Patterns Out To In From
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
NC Employment Security Commission-2006
60. UNC Employees Living
Locally Hill Carrboro Hillsborough
Chapel Durham
5000
4500 4451
4000
3500 3865
3000
2500
2259
2000
1500 1447
1000
705 907
500
445
0 361
2000
Chapel Hill Data Book 2010
2005 2009
61. Percent of UNC employees living
locally
Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough Durham
45%
40% 39.7%
35% 36.5%
30%
25%
20%
14.9% 18.5%
15%
10%
7.2% 7.4%
5%
0% 3.7% 3.6%
2000
Chapel Hill Data Book 2010
2005 2009
62. UNC Students Living Locally
Chapel Hill Carrboro Durham
18000
16000
16,544
14000
13,189
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2587 2125
2000
0 1936 1693
FY 02 FY05 FY09
Chapel Hill Data Book 2010
63. Percent of UNC Students Living
Locally
Chapel Hill Carrboro Durham
70%
65.3%
60%
50%
45.6%
40%
30%
20%
10.2%
10% 7.3%
7.6% 5.9%
0%
2002 2005 2009
Chapel Hill Data Book 2010
64. Percent of Town of Chapel Hill
Employees Living in Chapel Hill
45%
40%
41%
35%
30%
30%
27%
25%
22%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1995 2004 2008 2010
Chapel Hill Data Book 2010
65. Modes of Transportation (2010)
Chapel Hill Orange County United States
80% 75.8%
69.3%
70% 64.0%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10.7% 10.4% 12.0%
6.5% 8.2% 6.2%
10% 5.0% 5.5%
2.9%
0%
drove alone (%) carpooled (%) Public Walked (%)
transportation (%)
US Census Bureau
67. Orange County Greenhouse Gas Emissions by
Sector
Solid Industrial , 2%
Waste, 1%
Commercial/In
stitutional, 29 Transportation,
% 49%
Residential, 19
%
Orange County State of the Environment Report
68. Some takeaways…
We have a strong, well-educated work force
and increasingly diverse population.
Local municipalities share attributes but have
key demographic differences.
We are growing and will grow, but slower than
our neighbors as we take a small portion of
regional growth and state population growth.
We have a large disparity in wealth and have
seen increases in children in poverty and food
stamp recipients.
69. Some takeaways…
Growth in retail sales is one of our greatest
economic opportunities.
While we have enough water for the next 50
years, price continues to increase and a
permanent emergency supply must be secured.
Housing prices, while holding steady, remain
high compared in other counties in the region
70. Some takeaways…
Our two school districts continue to out
perform their peers.
Tourism and visitor spending are strong and
growing.
Orange County employee income is the
highest and unemployment is one of the
lowest in the state, but per capita retails sales
lags substantially.
71. Some takeaways…
Our residents are healthy and trending
healthier (other than breast cancer
frequency).
UNC research funding remains strong and
with a large economic multiplier will help
mitigate the impact of state workforce
reductions.
Per capita income growth is outpacing our
neighbors and retail sales are on the rise.
72. Facebook.com/ChapelHillCarrboroChamb
er
Twitter: @CarolinaChamber
Flickr.com/photos/carolinachamber
LinkedIn: Chapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber
group
www.carolinachamber.org