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4thAnnual State of the
  Community Report

          Aaron Nelson
 Chapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber of Commerce
  Partnership for a Sustainable Community
A bit about Chamber and our
Foundation
 The Chamber
    ◦ Serve and advance the business interests of our 1,100
      member employers
       Improve members’ bottom line
       Grow members’ professional network
       Access members access to timely information and decision
        makers
       Advocate for member business interests and help build a
        sustainable community where business can thrive
   Our Economic and Community Development Partnership
    ◦ Raised and invested more that $1 million to the community
      since 2004
    ◦ Launched Green Plus national small business education and
      certification program
    ◦ Accelerating Fourth Sector Enterprises
Background on this Report
  Our Fourth State of the Community Report
  Born out of graduate student research at
   UNC
  Social, Environmental and Economic
   Indicators
  Objective: deliver relevant information to
   community and business leaders
  Thank you to Kristen Smith, director of public
   policy and member engagment
Population
    Jurisdiction           2000        2010       Growth Rate

                                                    +17,785
 Orange County           116,016     133,801
                                                    (15.3%)

   Hillsborough           5,513       6,087      +574 (10.4%)

      Carrboro            17,668      19,582     +1,914 (10.8%)

    Chapel Hill           48,038      57,233     +9,195 (19.1%)

                                                  +1,456,659
 North Carolina          8,078,824   9,535,483
                                                   (18.0%)
    U.S. Census Bureau
Population Growth
160,000


140,000
                                                                                           133,801

120,000    116,016

100,000


 80,000


 60,000    48,038                                                                          57,233

 40,000

           17,668                                                                          19,582
 20,000

          5,513                                                                                6,087
     0

           2000     2001     2002     2003   2004       2005   2006     2007   2008     2009   2010
                           Orange County     Carrboro     Chapel Hill    Hillsborough

     U.S. Census Bureau
5.1% of 627,683 in projected 6-
                                                                county growth
Population Projections                                  1.4% of projected state growth


                                                                           Growth
 County            2015          2020     Growth Rate         2025
                                                                            Rate

                                          +24,471 (13.9%)   188,451        +36,706
ALAMANCE 163,982                176,216
                                                                            (23.8%)
                                                                           +21,552
 CHATHAM          71,053        78,237    +14,376 (18.4%)    85,422
                                                                            (33.0%)
                                          +54,549 (16.9%)   350,749        +81,824
   DURHAM 296,200               323,474
                                                                            (29.8%)
                                                                           +75,660
JOHNSTON 195,372                220,591   +50,440 (22.9%)   245,811
                                                                            (43.1%)
                                          +21,117 (13.6%)   166,001        +31,767
   ORANGE 144,885               155,442
                                                                            (24.0%)
                                             +253,509                      +380,265
       WAKE 1,034,069 1,160,823                             1,287,579
                                              (21.8%)                       (40.8%)
NC Office of State Budget and
Management
2010 Orange County Population by
  Race
       Native American       0.4%


                     Asian       6.7%


        Latino/Hispanic          8.2%


      African American              11.9%


                     White                                               74.4%

                         0.0%   10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%
U.S. Census Bureau
2010 Orange County Population by
     Race
      100%

       90%
                        80.1%           77.4%         74.4%
       80%

       70%

       60%

       50%

       40%

       30%

       20%              15.7%
                                        13.7%          11.9%
       10%                                                     8.2%
                     2.5%               4.1%
        0%
                     0.3%                4.4%                 6.7%
                      1990               2000             2010

               White         African American   Latino/Hispanic       Asian
U.S. Census Bureau
Minority Race/Ethnicity
                         African American     Hispanic or Latino      Asian
  35.00%



  30.00%
                             29.5%


  25.00%
                                                                              21.5%
  20.00%



  15.00%      13.8%
                                                      11.9%   11.9%
           10.1%                             9.7%
  10.00%
                   8.2%                                            8.2%           8.4%
                                  6.6%              6.4%              6.7%
   5.00%
                                     1.7%                                             2.2%
   0.00%

              Carrboro
U.S. Census Bureau            Hillsborough    Chapel Hill     Orange County       NC
Educational Attainment
                        Orange County       North Carolina     United States

                     89.6%
          90
                             82.9% 84.5%
          80

          70
                                                       55.4%
          60

          50

          40
                                                               25.6% 27.4%
          30

          20

          10

           0

                 High School Graduate (or        Bachelors Degree (or higher)
                         higher)
U.S. Census Bureau
Major Employers 2009-1014                    2014     2009

            Public Administration                 2,420
   Other Services (excl Pub Adm)                  2,485
  Accommodation/Food Services                              5,137
     Health Care/Social Services                                                               13,574
            Educational Services                                                                                17,295
     Prof/Scientific/Tech Services                             6,305
                        Information           2,249
                       Retail Trade                        4,815
                      Manufacturing               2,776
                       Construction                  3,751
                                      0   2,000    4,000   6,000   8,000   10,000   12,000   14,000   16,000   18,000   20,000
NC Dept of Commerce
EDIS
New Job Growth 2009-2014
                 Public Administration        185
       Accommodation/Food Services                    481
              Arts/Entertainment/Rec          124
          Health Care/Social Services                                                 2,045
                Educational Services                                          1,845
   Admin/Supp/Waste Mgmt Services               259
         Prof/Scientific/Tech Services                      736
                            Information         266
                           Construction       153
                                          0         500       1,000   1,500   2,000           2,500
NC Dept of Commerce EDIS
Orange County Employment
67,500

                            67,031
67,000


66,500

          65,997
66,000


65,500
                                     65,119
65,000

                                              64,498   64,450
64,500


64,000


63,500


63,000

            2007              2008    2009     2010    Dec-11
NC Employment Security Commission
Chapel Hill Employment
26,600

                             26,413
26,400


26,200


26,000
           25,882
25,800
                                               25,686
25,600
                                                        25453
25,400                                25,355

25,200


25,000


24,800

            2007              2008    2009      2010    Jul-11
NC Employment Security Commission
Unemployment Rate
                       Chapel Hill   Orange County   State
 12.0                                                         10.4
                                                     10.6
 10.0                                                                9.8
  8.0                                                         7.1
                                                        6.5
  6.0                                                                6.1
                                                              6.8    5.3
  4.0                                                  5.4

  2.0

   -




NC Employment Security Commission
Unemployed
                       Chapel Hill    Orange County
 5,000

 4,500

 4,000
                                                         4,211
 3,500

 3,000

 2,500

 2,000
            2,200
 1,500
                                                         1433
 1,000

  500      772
    -
              2007             2008   2009    2010    Dec-11
NC Employment Security Commission
10,000
                                                                       15,000
                                                                                20,000
                                                                                         25,000
                                                                                                  30,000
                                                                                                           35,000
                                                                                                                                   45,000
                                                                                                                                                50,000




                                                      5,000
                                                                                                                    40,000




                                                  0
       Alamance
       Alleghany
            Ashe
         Beaufort
          Bladen
      Buncombe
        Cabarrus
         Camden
         Caswell
        Chatham
         Chowan
       Cleveland
                                                                                                                     Chatham




          Craven
        Currituck
       Davidson
           Duplin
     Edgecombe
                                                                                                                        Cumberland




         Franklin
                                                                                                                             Durham




           Gates
        Granville
         Guilford
          Harnett
      Henderson




US Dept of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
            Hoke
           Iredell
        Johnston
              Lee
          Lincoln
           Macon
           Martin
          Mitchell
           Moore
    New Hanover
          Onslow
                                                                                                                                Mecklenburg




         Pamlico
          Pender
                                                                                                                                              Orange




          Person
             Polk
       Richmond
     Rockingham
      Rutherford
        Scotland
          Stokes
           Swain
           Tyrrell
           Vance
          Warren
                                                                                                                         Wake




        Watauga
           Wilkes
                                                                                                                                                         Per Capita Income by County




          Yadkin
Per Capita Income Change 2007-
2009 Durham-Chapel Hill, NC (MSA) 0.6%
                -5.6%                              Wake
                                           Randolph        0.7%
                                                  Person          3.7%
                                              Orange              3.6%
    -7.5%                               Mecklenburg
                               -3.1%        Johnston
                                   -0.8%      Durham
                                    -2.0% Chatham
                                -2.4%      Alamance
                          -0.3%      North Carolina
US Dept of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
Orange Co Income Levels by
 Household $200,000+
     $150,000 to
                        Less than
                            8%     $10,000
              $199,999
                                     11%
                6%



         $100,000 to                      $10,000 to
          $149,999                         $34,999
            13%                              25%




          $75,000 to
           $99,999
             11%                 $35,000 to
                                  $74,999
                                    26%
NC Department of Commerce
% Change in Orange Co Income ‘08 -
v- ‘09
        -2.4% $200,000 or more
               $150,000 to $199,999               6.5%
    -7.6%      $100,000 to $149,999

                 $75,000 to $99,999      3.0%

       -4.3%     $50,000 to $74,999

                 $35,000 to $49,999        4.0%

        -6.2% $25,000 to $34,999
       -6.5% $15,000 to $24,999
                 $10,000 to $14,999                                      15.0%
                 Less than $10,000                               12.9%

-10.0%          -5.0%             0.0%     5.0%          10.0%     15.0%         20.0%
US Census Bureau
% Change in Orange Co Income ‘08 -
v- ‘09
        -2.4% $200,000 or more
               $150,000 to $199,999               6.5%
    -7.6%      $100,000 to $149,999

                 $75,000 to $99,999      3.0%

       -4.3%     $50,000 to $74,999

                 $35,000 to $49,999        4.0%

        -6.2% $25,000 to $34,999
       -6.5% $15,000 to $24,999
                 $10,000 to $14,999                                      15.0%
                 Less than $10,000                               12.9%

-10.0%          -5.0%             0.0%     5.0%          10.0%     15.0%         20.0%
US Census Bureau
Orange County Families Receiving
Food Stamps
   7000
                                               5854
   6000


   5000


   4000
                                        2987
   3000

                                 1684
   2000   1390
   1000


      0




Orange County Dept of Social Services
Water Sales and Accounts
                                                  7                                                       24,000

                                                 6.5                                                      22,000
Average Annual Sales (million gallons per day)




                                                                                                                   Number of Customer Accounts
                                                  6
                                                                                                          20,000
                                                 5.5
                                                                                                          18,000
                                                  5
                                                                                                          16,000
                                                 4.5
                                                                                                          14,000
                                                  4

                                                 3.5                                                      12,000

                                                  3                                                       10,000
                                                                FISCAL YEAR

                                                       Projected Water Sales   Actual Customer Accounts
Water Sales and Accounts
                                                                           Drought
                                                                           2001/02
                                                 10                                                               Drought                24,000
                                                                                                                  2007/08
                                                 9                                                                                       22,000
Average Annual Sales (million gallons per day)




                                                                                                                                                  Number of Customer Accounts
                                                 8                                                                                       20,000

                                                 7                                                                                       18,000

                                                 6                                                                                       16,000
                                                                                                        Reclaimed Water to
                                                 5                                                       UNC begins 2009                 14,000

                                                 4                                                                                       12,000

                                                 3                                                                                       10,000
                                                                             FISCAL YEAR

                                                      Actual Water Sales        Projected Water Sales         Actual Customer Accounts
Monthly Water & Sewer Bills
Average monthly bill based on 5,000 gallons per month use




                                                            $100                                                                                                       18%
                                                            $90
                                                                                                                 17%
                                                                                                                                                                       16%
                                                                                                                                                                 $92
                                                            $80                                                                                                        14%
                                                            $70
                                                                                                                                                                       12%




                                                                                                                                                                            Increase
                                                                                                                                                                              Rate
                                                            $60
                                                                                                      10%          10%                                                 10%
                                                            $50    $44                                                         9%
                                                                                                                                                                       8%
                                                            $40
                                                            $30
                                                                                              6%                                                                       6%

                                                            $20                                                                                                        4%

                                                            $10
                                                                                                                                       2%                              2%

                                                             $0                                                                                                        0%




                                                                         Average Bill   Projected Average Bill         Rate Increase        Projected Rate Increase
2009 County Retail Data
                     Retail Demand                                                                        Retail Sales
  $3,000,000,000

  $2,500,000,000

  $2,000,000,000




                                                                                         $2,887,422,337
                                        $1,863,025,918
                       $1,355,149,927




                                                                                                                            $1,532,958,131
                                                                                                                                             $1,201,013,563
                                                                                                          $2,742,524,973




                                                                                                                                                               $264,725,866
                                                                         $258,724,306




                                                                                                                                                               $328,189,079
  $1,500,000,000
                                                          $674,645,069



  $1,000,000,000

   $500,000,000

              $0
                    Alamance                             Chatham                        Durham                             Orange                             Person
NC Department of Commerce
Orange Co. Taxable Sales
(millions)
   $1,060.0

                                                               $1,035.4
   $1,040.0

   $1,020.0

   $1,000.0
                                                      $985.3
    $980.0                 $971.6
    $960.0                          $952.2
    $940.0
              $936.5
    $920.0                                   $912.1
    $900.0

    $880.0

    $860.0

    $840.0


              2006         2007     2008     2009     2010      2011
NC Department of Revenue
High School Graduation
   Rates                        CHCCS 4-year      CHCCS 5-year      OCS 4-year
                                OCS 5-year        NC 4-year         NC 5-year
   95%
                                                                                 93.0%
   90%
                                                                                             88.3%
   85%                                                                           84.4%
                                                                                             82.8%
   80%
                                                                                 77.7%       77.7%
   75%

   70%

   65%

   60%
              2002-03           2003-04        2004-05        2005-06       2006-07      2007-08
N.C. Dept of Public Instruction
Percent of Children Receiving Free or Reduced
Price Lunch by School (Chapel Hill-Carrboro
Schools)
 100%
     90%
     80%
     70%
     60%
            47%                                              48%                   47%
     50%
                                           39%                                           35%
     40%
     30%                         23% 25%         23%               27%                         26% 22% 22%
                  23%                                                    21% 22%
     20%                17%                            13%
     10%
      0%




N.C Dept of Public Instruction
Percent of Children Receiving Free or Reduced
Price Lunch by School (Orange County Schools)
    100%                                                                         94%
                                   89%
     90%
     80%
     70%                                       66%
     60%                                                             57%
     50%                                             42% 40%                           46%
             39%
     40%             34%                 34%                               33%
     30%                     20%                               20%
     20%
     10%
      0%




N.C Dept of Public Instruction
Percent of Students Receiving Free or
Reduced Lunch
                                  Orange County   CHCCS
         45%

         40%
                                                                 39.0%
         35%           32.6%
         30%

         25%                                                     25.6%
         20%
                       21.7%
         15%

         10%

           5%

           0%
                        2006-07        2007-08    2008-09   2009-10
N.C Dept of Public Instruction
Chapel Hill/Orange Co. Hotel
   Occupancy
      72%
              69.9%
      70%
      68%                    67.1%
      66%                                   65.0%
                                                                       63.8%
      64%
      62%
      60%                                            58.9%    59.5%
      58%
      56%
      54%
      52%
                  2006           2007         2008     2009     2010    2011 YTD
                                                                          (Jun)
Chapel Hill Orange County Visitors Bureau
2010 Taxes Generated by Tourists (in Millions)

                         2010               •   In 2010, visitors to
      9                8.45                     Orange County
      8                                         generated 11.3
      7
                                                million in State and
      6
      5
                                                Local Taxes
      4                                         (including
            2.92
      3                                         sales, lodging, food &
      2                                         beverage, gas and
      1
                                                other)
      0
            Local     State
Chapel Hill Orange County Visitors Bureau
Tourism Spending in Orange County(in
      millions)
      160

      150

      140

      130

      120

      110

      100

       90

       80
              2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Chapel Hill Orange County Visitors Bureau
Orange County Tourism Impact
           Tourism in Orange County produced
          $144 million in 2010, a 5.7% increase
         from 2009


         Orange County ranked 24th in travel
          impact among North Carolinas' 100
        counties


         Tourism was responsible for 1610 jobs




          Travel generated a $27.17 million in
         payroll in 2010
Total Funding for UNC
Research
  $900,000,000
                                                 $803,390,675
  $800,000,000

  $700,000,000

  $600,000,000

  $500,000,000

  $400,000,000

  $300,000,000

  $200,000,000
                  $248,997,990
  $100,000,000

           $0




Office of the Vice Chancellor for Research and
Economic Development
UNC Cumulative New Company
Creation
 50

 45                                                                     46
 40
                                                              40   41
 35

 30
                                                         33
                                                    32
 25
                                            25 26
 20
                             19        22
 15

 10
                     16
   5       5
   0

       FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10
UNC Office of Technology Development
UNC Patent Application and
Awards U.S. Patent Applications U.S. Patents Issued
140
                                                      125
120

100

 80

 60

 40                                                    28
 20

   0

       FY00FY01FY02FY03FY04FY05FY06FY07FY08FY09FY10
UNC Office of Technology Development
Property Crime Rate (per 100,000)
         Alamance              Chatham        Durham        Orange       Wake
8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

     0
          2001         2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010
U.S. Dept of Justice
Violent Crime Rate (per 100,000)
          Alamance              Chatham            Durham     Orange       Wake
1,000

  900

  800

  700

  600

  500

  400

  300

  200

  100

    0

         2001          2002   2003   2004   2005    2006   2007   2008   2009   2010
U.S. Dept of Justice
Orange County Pregnancy Rates
   (per 1000 girls age 15-17)
60

50

40

30

20

10

  0
          2002         2003             2004    2005   2006     2007   2008   2009

                                        White    Minority     Total
NC State Center for Health Statistics
Orange County Infant Mortality Rate
   35    (per 1000 live births)
   30

   25

   20

   15

   10

     5

     0
              2004             2005     2006      2007      2008        2009
                  Orange County         County: White    County: Minority
NC State Center for Health Statistics
Infant Mortality Rate Comparison
(per 1,000 live births)
                                        Orange County      State
14

12

10

  8

  6

  4

  2

  0
           2004              2005           2006        2007       2008   2009
NC State Center for Health Statistics
Percent of Adults Obese (2010)
   North Carolina                                                        28.6%


                Wake                                              24.4%


            Durham                                                     26.4%


             Orange                                      17.9%

                         0%             5%   10%   15%   20%     25%     30%     35%
NC State Center for Health Statistics
Percent of Adults Smoking
(2010)
North Carolina                                                   19.8%


             Wake                                        16.2%


          Durham                                     14.7%


          Orange                                   13.3%

                      0%                5%   10%   15%       20%         25%
NC State Center for Health Statistics
Female Breast Cancer Incidence Rate (‘03-
’07, per 1,000 people)
                   Wake                                                   163.7
                 Person                           131.2
                 Orange                                                             181.2
                Durham                                              156.5
               Chatham                                                 160.6
             Alamance                                 134.1
NORTH CAROLINA                                                 149.6
                           100      110   120   130    140    150   160    170    180   190
N.C State Center for Health Statistics
Prostate Cancer Incidence Rate (‘03-
’07, per 1,000 people)
                   Wake                                                        171.8

                 Person                                             159.7

                 Orange                                            158.3

                Durham                                                                 186.8

               Chatham                                                           177.7

             Alamance                                            153.0

NORTH CAROLINA                                                   153.8

                           100     110   120   130   140   150    160    170     180   190   200
N.C State Center for Health Statistics
Lung Cancer Incidence Rate (‘03-’07, per
1,000 people)
                   Wake                             61.2
                 Person                                                            85.7
                 Orange                                65.1
                Durham                                          72.7
               Chatham                                 65.0
             Alamance                                                  76.9
NORTH CAROLINA                                                       75.8
                            45       50   55   60     65   70   75      80    85     90
N.C State Center for Health Statistics
Asthma in Hospital Discharges (Orange
Co., per 100,000)
                                           All Ages      Ages (0-14)
                                                            135.7
  140

  120
               92.3         97.4          92.3
  100                                                                  90.1              90.1
    80                                            69.5    72.7
                                                                                65.7
                                                                    57.3               55.2
    60      50.9         48          50.9        50                           50.3
    40

    20

     0
            2002         2003            2004    2005     2006      2007      2008     2009
N.C State Center for Health Statistics
Location of Orange County Housing
Units
       Carrboro      Hillsborough   Chapel Hill   Rest of County
                                           9,258, 16%

        21,492, 39
            %                                     2,593, 5%




                                                  22,254, 40
                                                      %

US Census Bureau
Percent Renter-Occupied
Rest of Orange County                    18.1%


              Chapel Hill                                          52.4%


            Hillsborough                             35.9%


                   Carrboro                                                61.5%

                              0%   10%   20%   30%   40%     50%     60%     70%
US Census Bureau
Number of Homes Sold in Orange
County
  2000     1859 1886                          1797 1749
  1800            1686
  1600
         1543
  1400                                                    1271
  1200
                                                                 1146 1143 1128
  1000


   800


   600


   400


   200


     0


         2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Greater Chapel Hill Association of REALTORS
Orange County Average Housing
Prices             $342,740
   $350,000


                                                                    $331,400
   $300,000
                                    $320,489             $321,326         $325,020
   $250,000                                   $318,899
                                                               $317,847
                             $298,883
   $200,000


                    $280,592
   $150,000



   $100,000
              $262,920

    $50,000



        $0


              2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Greater Chapel Hill Association of REALTORS
2010 Average Home Price
                                                          $329,918
 $350,000
                                               $307,292
 $300,000
                                    $255,525
 $250,000

               $190,985
 $200,000



 $150,000



 $100,000



  $50,000



       $0
Greater Chapel Hill Association of REALTORS
2010 Average Home Price
                                                           $329,918
  $350,000
                                               $307,292
  $300,000
                                    $255,525
  $250,000

                $190,985
  $200,000


  $150,000


  $100,000


   $50,000


       $0

                Durham                Wake     Chatham    Orange
Greater Chapel Hill Association of REALTORS
Building Permits
    Carrboro Chapel Hill                      Orange County (incl. Hillsborough)
    600


    500


    400


    300


    200                                                                           135
    100
                                                                                   45
      0                                                                             41
          1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Home Builders Association of Durham, Orange
Chatham
Community Home Trust
                  Units Under Management
                                                       233
  250
                                           193
  200


  150

                                      - $20.2M in assessed
  100
                                      value
                                      - $314K in property tax
    50


     0




Community Home Trust
Commuting Patterns




NC Employment Security Commission
Orange County Commuting
Patterns     Out To In From
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
 8000
 6000
 4000
 2000
    0




NC Employment Security Commission-2006
UNC Employees Living
Locally Hill Carrboro Hillsborough
       Chapel                        Durham
   5000
   4500                                  4451
   4000
   3500           3865
   3000
   2500
                                         2259
   2000
   1500          1447
   1000
                   705                   907
    500
                                         445
       0           361
                      2000
Chapel Hill Data Book 2010
                             2005     2009
Percent of UNC employees living
locally
          Chapel Hill        Carrboro     Hillsborough   Durham
  45%

  40%         39.7%
  35%                                                      36.5%
  30%

  25%

  20%
              14.9%                                        18.5%
  15%

  10%
                7.2%                                       7.4%
   5%

   0%            3.7%                                      3.6%
                    2000
Chapel Hill Data Book 2010
                                        2005             2009
UNC Students Living Locally
                     Chapel Hill   Carrboro   Durham
18000

16000
             16,544
14000
                                                       13,189
12000

10000

 8000

 6000

 4000
                 2587                                  2125
 2000

     0             1936                                1693
                     FY 02           FY05         FY09
Chapel Hill Data Book 2010
Percent of UNC Students Living
  Locally
                Chapel Hill   Carrboro   Durham
70%
             65.3%
60%

50%
                                              45.6%
40%

30%

20%
                10.2%
10%                                           7.3%
               7.6%                           5.9%
 0%
                    2002       2005         2009
Chapel Hill Data Book 2010
Percent of Town of Chapel Hill
Employees Living in Chapel Hill
45%

40%
                    41%

35%
                               30%
30%
                                       27%
25%
                                               22%
20%

15%

10%

 5%

 0%

              1995           2004    2008    2010
Chapel Hill Data Book 2010
Modes of Transportation (2010)
          Chapel Hill       Orange County                  United States
80%               75.8%
              69.3%
70%       64.0%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
                              10.7% 10.4%                         12.0%
                          6.5%                 8.2% 6.2%
10%                                                        5.0%        5.5%
                                                                           2.9%
 0%
        drove alone (%)   carpooled (%)           Public          Walked (%)
                                            transportation (%)
US Census Bureau
Transit Ridership (millions)
8


7
                                                                        7.29
                                                                               6.84
6
                                                                6.4
                                      5.16 5.47 5.72 5.62
5
                               4.67
4

                    3.46
3        3.01
2


1


0

    FY 01      FY02       FY03    FY04   FY05   FY06   FY07   FY08    FY09   FY10
Chapel Hill Data Book - 2010
Orange County Greenhouse Gas Emissions by
Sector
                       Solid               Industrial , 2%
                     Waste, 1%


   Commercial/In
   stitutional, 29                                           Transportation,
          %                                                       49%




                Residential, 19
                      %
Orange County State of the Environment Report
Some takeaways…
 We have a strong, well-educated work force
  and increasingly diverse population.
 Local municipalities share attributes but have
  key demographic differences.
 We are growing and will grow, but slower than
  our neighbors as we take a small portion of
  regional growth and state population growth.
 We have a large disparity in wealth and have
  seen increases in children in poverty and food
  stamp recipients.
Some takeaways…
 Growth in retail sales is one of our greatest
  economic opportunities.
 While we have enough water for the next 50
  years, price continues to increase and a
  permanent emergency supply must be secured.
 Housing prices, while holding steady, remain
  high compared in other counties in the region
Some takeaways…
 Our two school districts continue to out
  perform their peers.
 Tourism and visitor spending are strong and
  growing.
 Orange County employee income is the
  highest and unemployment is one of the
  lowest in the state, but per capita retails sales
  lags substantially.
Some takeaways…
 Our residents are healthy and trending
  healthier (other than breast cancer
  frequency).
 UNC research funding remains strong and
  with a large economic multiplier will help
  mitigate the impact of state workforce
  reductions.
 Per capita income growth is outpacing our
  neighbors and retail sales are on the rise.
Facebook.com/ChapelHillCarrboroChamb
                      er
        Twitter: @CarolinaChamber
    Flickr.com/photos/carolinachamber
 LinkedIn: Chapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber
                    group
         www.carolinachamber.org

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State of the Community for Chapel Hill 2020

  • 1. 4thAnnual State of the Community Report Aaron Nelson Chapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber of Commerce Partnership for a Sustainable Community
  • 2. A bit about Chamber and our Foundation  The Chamber ◦ Serve and advance the business interests of our 1,100 member employers  Improve members’ bottom line  Grow members’ professional network  Access members access to timely information and decision makers  Advocate for member business interests and help build a sustainable community where business can thrive  Our Economic and Community Development Partnership ◦ Raised and invested more that $1 million to the community since 2004 ◦ Launched Green Plus national small business education and certification program ◦ Accelerating Fourth Sector Enterprises
  • 3. Background on this Report  Our Fourth State of the Community Report  Born out of graduate student research at UNC  Social, Environmental and Economic Indicators  Objective: deliver relevant information to community and business leaders  Thank you to Kristen Smith, director of public policy and member engagment
  • 4. Population Jurisdiction 2000 2010 Growth Rate +17,785 Orange County 116,016 133,801 (15.3%) Hillsborough 5,513 6,087 +574 (10.4%) Carrboro 17,668 19,582 +1,914 (10.8%) Chapel Hill 48,038 57,233 +9,195 (19.1%) +1,456,659 North Carolina 8,078,824 9,535,483 (18.0%) U.S. Census Bureau
  • 5. Population Growth 160,000 140,000 133,801 120,000 116,016 100,000 80,000 60,000 48,038 57,233 40,000 17,668 19,582 20,000 5,513 6,087 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Orange County Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough U.S. Census Bureau
  • 6. 5.1% of 627,683 in projected 6- county growth Population Projections 1.4% of projected state growth Growth County 2015 2020 Growth Rate 2025 Rate +24,471 (13.9%) 188,451 +36,706 ALAMANCE 163,982 176,216 (23.8%) +21,552 CHATHAM 71,053 78,237 +14,376 (18.4%) 85,422 (33.0%) +54,549 (16.9%) 350,749 +81,824 DURHAM 296,200 323,474 (29.8%) +75,660 JOHNSTON 195,372 220,591 +50,440 (22.9%) 245,811 (43.1%) +21,117 (13.6%) 166,001 +31,767 ORANGE 144,885 155,442 (24.0%) +253,509 +380,265 WAKE 1,034,069 1,160,823 1,287,579 (21.8%) (40.8%) NC Office of State Budget and Management
  • 7. 2010 Orange County Population by Race Native American 0.4% Asian 6.7% Latino/Hispanic 8.2% African American 11.9% White 74.4% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% U.S. Census Bureau
  • 8. 2010 Orange County Population by Race 100% 90% 80.1% 77.4% 74.4% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 15.7% 13.7% 11.9% 10% 8.2% 2.5% 4.1% 0% 0.3% 4.4% 6.7% 1990 2000 2010 White African American Latino/Hispanic Asian U.S. Census Bureau
  • 9. Minority Race/Ethnicity African American Hispanic or Latino Asian 35.00% 30.00% 29.5% 25.00% 21.5% 20.00% 15.00% 13.8% 11.9% 11.9% 10.1% 9.7% 10.00% 8.2% 8.2% 8.4% 6.6% 6.4% 6.7% 5.00% 1.7% 2.2% 0.00% Carrboro U.S. Census Bureau Hillsborough Chapel Hill Orange County NC
  • 10. Educational Attainment Orange County North Carolina United States 89.6% 90 82.9% 84.5% 80 70 55.4% 60 50 40 25.6% 27.4% 30 20 10 0 High School Graduate (or Bachelors Degree (or higher) higher) U.S. Census Bureau
  • 11. Major Employers 2009-1014 2014 2009 Public Administration 2,420 Other Services (excl Pub Adm) 2,485 Accommodation/Food Services 5,137 Health Care/Social Services 13,574 Educational Services 17,295 Prof/Scientific/Tech Services 6,305 Information 2,249 Retail Trade 4,815 Manufacturing 2,776 Construction 3,751 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 NC Dept of Commerce EDIS
  • 12. New Job Growth 2009-2014 Public Administration 185 Accommodation/Food Services 481 Arts/Entertainment/Rec 124 Health Care/Social Services 2,045 Educational Services 1,845 Admin/Supp/Waste Mgmt Services 259 Prof/Scientific/Tech Services 736 Information 266 Construction 153 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 NC Dept of Commerce EDIS
  • 13. Orange County Employment 67,500 67,031 67,000 66,500 65,997 66,000 65,500 65,119 65,000 64,498 64,450 64,500 64,000 63,500 63,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 Dec-11 NC Employment Security Commission
  • 14. Chapel Hill Employment 26,600 26,413 26,400 26,200 26,000 25,882 25,800 25,686 25,600 25453 25,400 25,355 25,200 25,000 24,800 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jul-11 NC Employment Security Commission
  • 15. Unemployment Rate Chapel Hill Orange County State 12.0 10.4 10.6 10.0 9.8 8.0 7.1 6.5 6.0 6.1 6.8 5.3 4.0 5.4 2.0 - NC Employment Security Commission
  • 16. Unemployed Chapel Hill Orange County 5,000 4,500 4,000 4,211 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 2,200 1,500 1433 1,000 500 772 - 2007 2008 2009 2010 Dec-11 NC Employment Security Commission
  • 17. 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 45,000 50,000 5,000 40,000 0 Alamance Alleghany Ashe Beaufort Bladen Buncombe Cabarrus Camden Caswell Chatham Chowan Cleveland Chatham Craven Currituck Davidson Duplin Edgecombe Cumberland Franklin Durham Gates Granville Guilford Harnett Henderson US Dept of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis Hoke Iredell Johnston Lee Lincoln Macon Martin Mitchell Moore New Hanover Onslow Mecklenburg Pamlico Pender Orange Person Polk Richmond Rockingham Rutherford Scotland Stokes Swain Tyrrell Vance Warren Wake Watauga Wilkes Per Capita Income by County Yadkin
  • 18. Per Capita Income Change 2007- 2009 Durham-Chapel Hill, NC (MSA) 0.6% -5.6% Wake Randolph 0.7% Person 3.7% Orange 3.6% -7.5% Mecklenburg -3.1% Johnston -0.8% Durham -2.0% Chatham -2.4% Alamance -0.3% North Carolina US Dept of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • 19. Orange Co Income Levels by Household $200,000+ $150,000 to Less than 8% $10,000 $199,999 11% 6% $100,000 to $10,000 to $149,999 $34,999 13% 25% $75,000 to $99,999 11% $35,000 to $74,999 26% NC Department of Commerce
  • 20. % Change in Orange Co Income ‘08 - v- ‘09 -2.4% $200,000 or more $150,000 to $199,999 6.5% -7.6% $100,000 to $149,999 $75,000 to $99,999 3.0% -4.3% $50,000 to $74,999 $35,000 to $49,999 4.0% -6.2% $25,000 to $34,999 -6.5% $15,000 to $24,999 $10,000 to $14,999 15.0% Less than $10,000 12.9% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% US Census Bureau
  • 21. % Change in Orange Co Income ‘08 - v- ‘09 -2.4% $200,000 or more $150,000 to $199,999 6.5% -7.6% $100,000 to $149,999 $75,000 to $99,999 3.0% -4.3% $50,000 to $74,999 $35,000 to $49,999 4.0% -6.2% $25,000 to $34,999 -6.5% $15,000 to $24,999 $10,000 to $14,999 15.0% Less than $10,000 12.9% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% US Census Bureau
  • 22. Orange County Families Receiving Food Stamps 7000 5854 6000 5000 4000 2987 3000 1684 2000 1390 1000 0 Orange County Dept of Social Services
  • 23. Water Sales and Accounts 7 24,000 6.5 22,000 Average Annual Sales (million gallons per day) Number of Customer Accounts 6 20,000 5.5 18,000 5 16,000 4.5 14,000 4 3.5 12,000 3 10,000 FISCAL YEAR Projected Water Sales Actual Customer Accounts
  • 24. Water Sales and Accounts Drought 2001/02 10 Drought 24,000 2007/08 9 22,000 Average Annual Sales (million gallons per day) Number of Customer Accounts 8 20,000 7 18,000 6 16,000 Reclaimed Water to 5 UNC begins 2009 14,000 4 12,000 3 10,000 FISCAL YEAR Actual Water Sales Projected Water Sales Actual Customer Accounts
  • 25. Monthly Water & Sewer Bills Average monthly bill based on 5,000 gallons per month use $100 18% $90 17% 16% $92 $80 14% $70 12% Increase Rate $60 10% 10% 10% $50 $44 9% 8% $40 $30 6% 6% $20 4% $10 2% 2% $0 0% Average Bill Projected Average Bill Rate Increase Projected Rate Increase
  • 26. 2009 County Retail Data Retail Demand Retail Sales $3,000,000,000 $2,500,000,000 $2,000,000,000 $2,887,422,337 $1,863,025,918 $1,355,149,927 $1,532,958,131 $1,201,013,563 $2,742,524,973 $264,725,866 $258,724,306 $328,189,079 $1,500,000,000 $674,645,069 $1,000,000,000 $500,000,000 $0 Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Person NC Department of Commerce
  • 27. Orange Co. Taxable Sales (millions) $1,060.0 $1,035.4 $1,040.0 $1,020.0 $1,000.0 $985.3 $980.0 $971.6 $960.0 $952.2 $940.0 $936.5 $920.0 $912.1 $900.0 $880.0 $860.0 $840.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 NC Department of Revenue
  • 28. High School Graduation Rates CHCCS 4-year CHCCS 5-year OCS 4-year OCS 5-year NC 4-year NC 5-year 95% 93.0% 90% 88.3% 85% 84.4% 82.8% 80% 77.7% 77.7% 75% 70% 65% 60% 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 N.C. Dept of Public Instruction
  • 29. Percent of Children Receiving Free or Reduced Price Lunch by School (Chapel Hill-Carrboro Schools) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 47% 48% 47% 50% 39% 35% 40% 30% 23% 25% 23% 27% 26% 22% 22% 23% 21% 22% 20% 17% 13% 10% 0% N.C Dept of Public Instruction
  • 30. Percent of Children Receiving Free or Reduced Price Lunch by School (Orange County Schools) 100% 94% 89% 90% 80% 70% 66% 60% 57% 50% 42% 40% 46% 39% 40% 34% 34% 33% 30% 20% 20% 20% 10% 0% N.C Dept of Public Instruction
  • 31. Percent of Students Receiving Free or Reduced Lunch Orange County CHCCS 45% 40% 39.0% 35% 32.6% 30% 25% 25.6% 20% 21.7% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 N.C Dept of Public Instruction
  • 32. Chapel Hill/Orange Co. Hotel Occupancy 72% 69.9% 70% 68% 67.1% 66% 65.0% 63.8% 64% 62% 60% 58.9% 59.5% 58% 56% 54% 52% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD (Jun) Chapel Hill Orange County Visitors Bureau
  • 33. 2010 Taxes Generated by Tourists (in Millions) 2010 • In 2010, visitors to 9 8.45 Orange County 8 generated 11.3 7 million in State and 6 5 Local Taxes 4 (including 2.92 3 sales, lodging, food & 2 beverage, gas and 1 other) 0 Local State Chapel Hill Orange County Visitors Bureau
  • 34. Tourism Spending in Orange County(in millions) 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Chapel Hill Orange County Visitors Bureau
  • 35. Orange County Tourism Impact Tourism in Orange County produced $144 million in 2010, a 5.7% increase from 2009 Orange County ranked 24th in travel impact among North Carolinas' 100 counties Tourism was responsible for 1610 jobs Travel generated a $27.17 million in payroll in 2010
  • 36. Total Funding for UNC Research $900,000,000 $803,390,675 $800,000,000 $700,000,000 $600,000,000 $500,000,000 $400,000,000 $300,000,000 $200,000,000 $248,997,990 $100,000,000 $0 Office of the Vice Chancellor for Research and Economic Development
  • 37. UNC Cumulative New Company Creation 50 45 46 40 40 41 35 30 33 32 25 25 26 20 19 22 15 10 16 5 5 0 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 UNC Office of Technology Development
  • 38. UNC Patent Application and Awards U.S. Patent Applications U.S. Patents Issued 140 125 120 100 80 60 40 28 20 0 FY00FY01FY02FY03FY04FY05FY06FY07FY08FY09FY10 UNC Office of Technology Development
  • 39. Property Crime Rate (per 100,000) Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 U.S. Dept of Justice
  • 40. Violent Crime Rate (per 100,000) Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 U.S. Dept of Justice
  • 41. Orange County Pregnancy Rates (per 1000 girls age 15-17) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 White Minority Total NC State Center for Health Statistics
  • 42. Orange County Infant Mortality Rate 35 (per 1000 live births) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Orange County County: White County: Minority NC State Center for Health Statistics
  • 43. Infant Mortality Rate Comparison (per 1,000 live births) Orange County State 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 NC State Center for Health Statistics
  • 44. Percent of Adults Obese (2010) North Carolina 28.6% Wake 24.4% Durham 26.4% Orange 17.9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% NC State Center for Health Statistics
  • 45. Percent of Adults Smoking (2010) North Carolina 19.8% Wake 16.2% Durham 14.7% Orange 13.3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% NC State Center for Health Statistics
  • 46. Female Breast Cancer Incidence Rate (‘03- ’07, per 1,000 people) Wake 163.7 Person 131.2 Orange 181.2 Durham 156.5 Chatham 160.6 Alamance 134.1 NORTH CAROLINA 149.6 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 N.C State Center for Health Statistics
  • 47. Prostate Cancer Incidence Rate (‘03- ’07, per 1,000 people) Wake 171.8 Person 159.7 Orange 158.3 Durham 186.8 Chatham 177.7 Alamance 153.0 NORTH CAROLINA 153.8 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 N.C State Center for Health Statistics
  • 48. Lung Cancer Incidence Rate (‘03-’07, per 1,000 people) Wake 61.2 Person 85.7 Orange 65.1 Durham 72.7 Chatham 65.0 Alamance 76.9 NORTH CAROLINA 75.8 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 N.C State Center for Health Statistics
  • 49. Asthma in Hospital Discharges (Orange Co., per 100,000) All Ages Ages (0-14) 135.7 140 120 92.3 97.4 92.3 100 90.1 90.1 80 69.5 72.7 65.7 57.3 55.2 60 50.9 48 50.9 50 50.3 40 20 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 N.C State Center for Health Statistics
  • 50. Location of Orange County Housing Units Carrboro Hillsborough Chapel Hill Rest of County 9,258, 16% 21,492, 39 % 2,593, 5% 22,254, 40 % US Census Bureau
  • 51. Percent Renter-Occupied Rest of Orange County 18.1% Chapel Hill 52.4% Hillsborough 35.9% Carrboro 61.5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% US Census Bureau
  • 52. Number of Homes Sold in Orange County 2000 1859 1886 1797 1749 1800 1686 1600 1543 1400 1271 1200 1146 1143 1128 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Greater Chapel Hill Association of REALTORS
  • 53. Orange County Average Housing Prices $342,740 $350,000 $331,400 $300,000 $320,489 $321,326 $325,020 $250,000 $318,899 $317,847 $298,883 $200,000 $280,592 $150,000 $100,000 $262,920 $50,000 $0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Greater Chapel Hill Association of REALTORS
  • 54. 2010 Average Home Price $329,918 $350,000 $307,292 $300,000 $255,525 $250,000 $190,985 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 Greater Chapel Hill Association of REALTORS
  • 55. 2010 Average Home Price $329,918 $350,000 $307,292 $300,000 $255,525 $250,000 $190,985 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 Durham Wake Chatham Orange Greater Chapel Hill Association of REALTORS
  • 56. Building Permits Carrboro Chapel Hill Orange County (incl. Hillsborough) 600 500 400 300 200 135 100 45 0 41 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Home Builders Association of Durham, Orange Chatham
  • 57. Community Home Trust Units Under Management 233 250 193 200 150 - $20.2M in assessed 100 value - $314K in property tax 50 0 Community Home Trust
  • 58. Commuting Patterns NC Employment Security Commission
  • 59. Orange County Commuting Patterns Out To In From 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 NC Employment Security Commission-2006
  • 60. UNC Employees Living Locally Hill Carrboro Hillsborough Chapel Durham 5000 4500 4451 4000 3500 3865 3000 2500 2259 2000 1500 1447 1000 705 907 500 445 0 361 2000 Chapel Hill Data Book 2010 2005 2009
  • 61. Percent of UNC employees living locally Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough Durham 45% 40% 39.7% 35% 36.5% 30% 25% 20% 14.9% 18.5% 15% 10% 7.2% 7.4% 5% 0% 3.7% 3.6% 2000 Chapel Hill Data Book 2010 2005 2009
  • 62. UNC Students Living Locally Chapel Hill Carrboro Durham 18000 16000 16,544 14000 13,189 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2587 2125 2000 0 1936 1693 FY 02 FY05 FY09 Chapel Hill Data Book 2010
  • 63. Percent of UNC Students Living Locally Chapel Hill Carrboro Durham 70% 65.3% 60% 50% 45.6% 40% 30% 20% 10.2% 10% 7.3% 7.6% 5.9% 0% 2002 2005 2009 Chapel Hill Data Book 2010
  • 64. Percent of Town of Chapel Hill Employees Living in Chapel Hill 45% 40% 41% 35% 30% 30% 27% 25% 22% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1995 2004 2008 2010 Chapel Hill Data Book 2010
  • 65. Modes of Transportation (2010) Chapel Hill Orange County United States 80% 75.8% 69.3% 70% 64.0% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10.7% 10.4% 12.0% 6.5% 8.2% 6.2% 10% 5.0% 5.5% 2.9% 0% drove alone (%) carpooled (%) Public Walked (%) transportation (%) US Census Bureau
  • 66. Transit Ridership (millions) 8 7 7.29 6.84 6 6.4 5.16 5.47 5.72 5.62 5 4.67 4 3.46 3 3.01 2 1 0 FY 01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 Chapel Hill Data Book - 2010
  • 67. Orange County Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector Solid Industrial , 2% Waste, 1% Commercial/In stitutional, 29 Transportation, % 49% Residential, 19 % Orange County State of the Environment Report
  • 68. Some takeaways…  We have a strong, well-educated work force and increasingly diverse population.  Local municipalities share attributes but have key demographic differences.  We are growing and will grow, but slower than our neighbors as we take a small portion of regional growth and state population growth.  We have a large disparity in wealth and have seen increases in children in poverty and food stamp recipients.
  • 69. Some takeaways…  Growth in retail sales is one of our greatest economic opportunities.  While we have enough water for the next 50 years, price continues to increase and a permanent emergency supply must be secured.  Housing prices, while holding steady, remain high compared in other counties in the region
  • 70. Some takeaways…  Our two school districts continue to out perform their peers.  Tourism and visitor spending are strong and growing.  Orange County employee income is the highest and unemployment is one of the lowest in the state, but per capita retails sales lags substantially.
  • 71. Some takeaways…  Our residents are healthy and trending healthier (other than breast cancer frequency).  UNC research funding remains strong and with a large economic multiplier will help mitigate the impact of state workforce reductions.  Per capita income growth is outpacing our neighbors and retail sales are on the rise.
  • 72. Facebook.com/ChapelHillCarrboroChamb er  Twitter: @CarolinaChamber  Flickr.com/photos/carolinachamber  LinkedIn: Chapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber group  www.carolinachamber.org