SlideShare una empresa de Scribd logo
1 de 19
Descargar para leer sin conexión
Deficit Assuming Continuation of Certain Policies                                                                                           Under CBO’s baseline assumptions,
                                                                                                                                     deficits would drop from 8.5 percent of
(Percentage of GDP)
                                                                                                                                       GDP this year to 1.2 percent of GDP in
                                                                                                                                    2021. However, deficits would not fall as
                                                                                                                                        far if certain policies were continued.
                                                                                                                                     CBO estimates that the deficit would be
                                                                                                                                           4.7 percent of GDP if those policies
                                                                                                                                                                 remained in place.
   10
               8.5%
     8
                              6.4%
     6
                                              4.8%                                                                                                           4.5%            4.7%
                                                                                              4.0%                           3.9%            4.3%
     4                                                        3.8%            3.5%                           3.9%

     2

     0
              2011            2012            2013           2014            2015            2016            2017            2018            2019            2020            2021



                          Baseline              Extend Tax Policies                   Maintain Medicare’s Payment                          Additional Debt Service
                                                                                      Rates for Physicians



Source: Congressional Budget Office.
Note: “Extend Tax Policies” reflects the following policy assumptions: Most of the provisions in the 2010 tax act that were originally enacted in 2001, 2003, 2009, and 2010 are
extended (instead of being allowed to expire on December 31, 2012, as scheduled), and the alternative minimum tax is indexed for inflation. “Maintain Medicare’s payment
Rates for Physicians” involves preventing the nearly 30 percent reduction in Medicare’s payment rates for physicians’ services that is scheduled to take e ect at the end of 2011.
“Additional Debt Service” is the amount of interest payments on the additional debt issued to the public that would result from the continuation of the specified policies.
Federal Debt Held by the Public                                                                              With modest deficits projected for the latter part of the
                                                                                                 2012–2021 period under CBO’s current-law baseline, debt held by
(Percentage of GDP)
                                                                                                     the public recedes as a percentage of GDP. However, if certain
                                                                                                 provisions that are part of current law did not expire as scheduled,
        120                                                                                     debt held by the public would rise to 82 percent of GDP by the end
                                                                                                              of 2021, which would be the highest level since 1948.

                                                                                                                   Actual        Projected
        100



                                                                                                                                               Continuation of
         80                                                                                                                                    Certain Policies



         60                                                                                                                                     CBO’s Baseline




         40



         20



          0
              1940        1950            1960            1970            1980           1990            2000            2010           2020


Source: Congressional Budget Office.
Note: The projected debt with the continuation of certain policies is based on several assumptions: rst, that most of the provisions of the Tax Relief, Unemployment
Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010 that originally were enacted in 2001, 2003, 2009, and 2010 do not expire on December 31, 2012, but instead
continue; second, that the alternative minimum tax is indexed for inflation after 2011; and third, that Medicare’s payment rates for physicians are held constant at their
2011 level. Shaded bars indicate periods of recession.
Total Deficits or Surpluses                                                                If some of the changes specified in current law did not occur and certain
(Percentage of GDP)                                                                        current policies were continued instead, then annual deficits from 2012
                                                                                               through 2021 would be much higher—averaging 4.3 percent of GDP,
                                                                                                              compared with 1.8 percent in CBO’s baseline projections.
           4

                                                                                     2.4%
           2                                                                            2000
                                                                                                                  Actual        Projected

           0                                                                                                                                              CBO’s Baseline


          -2


          -4                                                                                                                                              Continuation of
                                                                                                -3.5%                                                     Certain Policies
                   -4.2%                                                                             2004
                        1976                                   -4.7%
          -6                                                        1992
                                       -6.0%
                                           1983

          -8


         -10
                                                                                                            -10.0%
                                                                                                                   2009

         -12
               1971     1975       1979       1983       1987       1991       1995       1999       2003       2007       2011       2015       2019


Source: Congressional Budget Office.
Note: The projected deficit with the continuation of certain policies is based on several assumptions: rst, that most of the provisions of the Tax Relief, Unemployment
Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010 that originally were enacted in 2001, 2003, 2009, and 2010 do not expire on December 31, 2012, but instead
continue; second, that the alternative minimum tax is indexed for inflation after 2011; and third, that Medicare’s payment rates for physicians are held constant at their
2011 level.
Total Discretionary Budget                                                                                If discretionary budget authority was allowed to grow at the
                                                                                                            rate of inflation, without the constraint on nonwar funding
Authority Excluding War Funding                                                                            imposed by the caps established in the Budget Control Act,
(Percentage of GDP)
                                                                                                                that budget authority would be about 4 percent higher
                                                                                                                                        in 2012 and 8 percent higher in 2021.
          12
                                                                                                     Actual         Projected

          10



            8
                                                                                                                                   Funding for 2011
                                                                                                                                   Adjusted for Inflationa
            6

                                                                                                                                   CBO’s Baselineb
             4



             2



             0
              1986               1991                1996                2001                2006               2011               2016                2021


Source: Congressional Budget Office.
a
  Data reflect the assumption that discretionary funding related to federal personnel is inflated using the employment cost index for wages and salaries. All other
discretionary funding is adjusted using the gross domestic product price index.
b
    When constructing its baseline, CBO assumes that discretionary funding will adhere to the statutory caps recently enacted into law by the Budget Control Act of 2011.
Real Gross Domestic Product                                                                                                CBO expects that the economic recovery will

(Trillions of 2005 dollars, logarithmic scale)                                                                                 continue but that real (inflation-adjusted)
                                                                                                                                        GDP will stay below the economy’s
                                                                                                                           potential—a level that corresponds to a high
                                                                                                                             rate of use of labor and capital—until 2017.
        19                                                                   Actual        Projected
        18

        17                                                                                                    Potential GDP

        16

        15

       14                                                                                             GDP

        13


       12


       11


       10
        2000           2002         2004         2006         2008         2010         2012         2014         2016          2018        2020
                                                                                                                                            2020

Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Notes: Real gross domestic product is the output of the economy adjusted to remove the e ects of inflation. Potential GDP is CBO’s estimate of the output that the
economy would produce with a high rate of use of its labor and capital resources. Data are quarterly. Actual data for GDP, which are plotted through the second quarter
of 2011, incorporate the July 2011 revisions of the national income and product accounts. Projections of GDP, which are plotted through the fourth quarter of 2021, are
based on data issued before the revisions. Shaded bars indicate periods of recession.
Ratio of GDP to Potential GDP                                                                                             CBO projects that GDP will grow considerably

(Percent)                                                                                                                   faster than potential GDP between 2013 and
                                                                                                                          2016. That growth will bring the economy to a
                                                                                                                          high rate of resource use—completely closing
                                                                                                                             the gap between the economy’s actual and
        4
                                                                                                                                                 potential output—by 2017.


        2                                        Actual                                         Projected



        0


        -2


        -4


        -6


        -8


        -10
              2000       2002        2004        2006        2008        2010         2012        2014        2016        2018        2020


Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Notes: Real gross domestic product is the output of the economy adjusted to remove the e ects of inflation. Potential GDP is CBO’s estimate of the output that the
economy would produce with a high rate of use of its labor and capital resources. Data are quarterly. Actual data for GDP, which are plotted through the second quarter
of 2011, incorporate the July 2011 revisions of the national income and product accounts. Projections of GDP, which are plotted through the fourth quarter of 2021, are
based on data issued before the revisions.
Unemployment Rate                                                                                   With the projection of modest growth in output, CBO expects

(Percent)                                                                                           employment to expand slowly during the rest of this year and
                                                                                                     next year. The unemployment rate is projected to fall from an
                                                                                                             average of 9.1 percent in the second quarter of 2011 to
                                                                                                                      8.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 and to
                                                                                                                               8.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.
       12
                                                                                                 Actual        Projected

       10



         8



         6



         4



         2



         0
          1980            1985           1990           1995           2000            2005           2010           2015           2020


Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Notes: The unemployment rate is a measure of the number of jobless people who are available for work and are actively seeking jobs, expressed as a percentage of the
labor force. Data are quarterly. Actual data are plotted through the second quarter of 2011; projections are plotted through the fourth quarter of 2021.
Interest Rates                                                                                                    Consistent with its forecast of modest economic

(Percent)                                                                                                            growth through 2013 under current law, CBO
                                                                                                                projects that interest rates will remain very low for
                                                                                                                 the next few years and then rise to more-normal
                                                                                                                 levels as output approaches its potential in 2017.

        16
                                                                                                Actual   Projected

        14


        12

                     11.1%
        10

                    8.6%
         8
                                 8.4%

                                                                       6.0%
         6
                                                   5.9%                                                               5.3%
                                 5.8%                                                                                                10-Year Treasury Notes

         4                                                            5.8%                               3.3%                        3-Month Treasury Bills
                                                                                 4.0%
                                                                                                                      4.0%
                                                   3.0%
         2

                                                                                 1.0%                    0.1%
         0
                   1983         1987              1993                 2000 2003                         2011         2017


Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Federal Reserve.
Notes: Data are annual. Actual data are plotted through 2010; projections are plotted through 2021.
House Prices                                                                                                    House prices are nearing the end of their decline, in
(Index, 1991 = 100)                                                                                             CBO’s estimation. But they probably will not begin a
                                                                                                             sustained increase until the second half of 2012, when
                                                                                                                      CBO expects there to be fewer foreclosures and
                                                                                                             distressed sales. CBO projects that by the end of 2013,
                                                                                                                   house prices as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller
        300
                                                                                                                                        index will be back to 2003 levels.


        250
                                                            Actual                                                  Projected

        200



        150



        100



          50



             0
                 1990               1995                  2000                 2005                  2010                  2015                 2020


Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Financial Services.
Notes: The S&P/Case-Shiller national home price index tracks the prices of home sales financed using mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac as well as
sales financed with mortgages that do not conform to the size or credit criteria for purchase by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Values shown are annual averages of quarterly data.
Actual data are plotted through 2010; projections are plotted through 2021.
Vacant Housing Units                                                               The recovery of the housing market is likely to be slowed by the fact that an
                                                                                unusually large percentage of housing units are now vacant. That percentage,
(Percentage of total units)
                                                                            which was already high before the 2007–2009 recession because of overbuilding
                                                                               during the housing boom, partly reflects the large number of foreclosures and
                                                                                  continued slow pace of household formation since the end of the recession.
          15
                                                                                                                                         14.3%

          14


          13
                                                                                                                                 12.7%


          12      11.8%
                                                                                                                  11.6%
                                                                                       11.2%        11.2%
                                                                         11.0%
          11
                                             10.4%         10.5%
                                10.0%
          10


           9


           8
                  1965          1970          1975         1980          1985          1990          1995          2000          2005    2010


Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Census Bureau.
Notes: Housing units comprise occupied units and vacant units, including units intended for year-round use and seasonal units.
Values are annual averages of quarterly data.
Net Business Fixed Investment                                                                                   Investment by businesses declined sharply during the
                                                                                                         recession, and although it picked up a bit relative to GDP in
(Percentage of GDP)
                                                                                                         2010, it remained well below its long-run historical average.
                                                                                                        The growth in GDP that CBO has projected for the near term
                                                                                                          will encourage businesses to boost net fixed investment to
        5                                                    Actual                                                         meet increases in demand for their products.
                                              4.6%                             4.7%
                                                                                           4.4%                             4.5%
                                                         4.1%
        4                                                                                                                                                       Projected

              3.5% 3.4%                                                                                                                                      3.4%
                                   3.0%                             3.1%                                         3.1%
        3
                                                                                                      2.7%
                                                                                                                                       2.3%                             2.4%
        2



        1                                                                                                                                         1.0%


        0
                                                                                1980

                                                                                           1985
                         1955

                                    1960

                                               1965

                                                         1970

                                                                     1975




                                                                                                      1990

                                                                                                                 1995

                                                                                                                            2000

                                                                                                                                       2005

                                                                                                                                                  2010

                                                                                                                                                             2015

                                                                                                                                                                        2020
              1950




Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Notes: Business fixed investment consists of businesses’ spending on nonresidential structures, equipment, and software. It is shown here net of depreciation. Data are annual.
Actual data incorporate the July 2011 revisions to the national income and product accounts; projections are based on data issued before the revisions.
Exchange Value of the U.S. Dollar                                                                                       The trade-weighted exchange value of the dollar
                                                                                                                          declined for most of the past decade, as foreign
(Index, March 1973 = 100)
                                                                                                                          investors became less willing to keep adding to
                                                                                                                    their increasingly large holdings of U.S. dollar assets.
       130
                                                                                                                     CBO expects that decline to continue at a moderate
                                                                                                                                    pace, on average, over the next 10 years.

       120



       110



       100



         90



         80



         70
           1980                   1985                 1990                  1995                  2000                  2005                  2010


Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Federal Reserve.
Notes: This index is an average of the U.S. dollar’s exchange value against the currencies of a large group of major U.S. trading partners, adjusted for inflation and weighted by the
amount of trade the United States conducts with each of those countries. The index weights change over time. Data are monthly and are plotted through July 2011. Tan lines
represent a year’s worth of values; light blue bars represent the annual average.
Net Job Growth per Month                                                                                                         Labor market conditions deteriorated
(Thousands of jobs)                                                                                                       dramatically during the recent recession, and
                                                                                                                               despite a modest recovery in job growth
                                                                                                                          beginning in early 2010, employment remains
           400
                                                                                                                                        well below its prerecession level.


           200


              0


          -200


          -400


          -600


          -800


        -1,000
             January          July         January        July        January        July         January        July         January      July
               2007           2007          2008          2008         2009          2009          2010          2010          2011        2011


Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Notes: Data are monthly and are plotted through July 2011. They exclude temporary jobs associated with the 2010 census.
Labor Force Participation Rate                                                                                                     The labor force participation rate has fallen
                                                                                                                       significantly in the past decade. Although economic
(Percent)
                                                                                                                recovery will increase the demand for labor, CBO expects
                                                                                                                 that rate to continue to decline as the aging of the baby
                                                                                                                 boomers and tax increases scheduled under current law
                                                                                                                                prompt more people to leave the labor force.



        1970
                                                                60.4%
        1980
                                                                                            63.8%
        1990
                                                                                                           66.5%
        2000
                                                                                                                  67.1%
        2010
                                                                                                   64.7%
        2020
                                                                                      63.0%
                       55%                                60%                                65%


Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Notes: The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the civilian noninstitutionalized population age 16 or older that is either working or actively looking for work.
Values are annual averages of quarterly data.
Unemployed Workers per Job Opening                                                                        The number of unemployed workers per job opening
                                                                                                               averaged about 4½ in the first half of 2011—down
(Number)
                                                                                                          from an average of more than 6 in 2009 but still much
                                                                                                                          higher than before the recent recession.


        8


        7


        6


        5


        4


        3


        2


        1


        0
         2001           2002         2003          2004          2005          2006          2007       2008       2009        2010       2011


Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Notes: Data are monthly and are plotted through June 2011. Shaded bars indicate periods of recession.
Inflation                                                                                                                   Although inflation increased in the first half of
                                                                                                                         2011, CBO projects that it will recede somewhat
(Percentage change in prices from previous year)
                                                                                                                            in the second half and that prices will rise at a
                                                                                                                                     subdued pace over the next few years.
        12
                                                                                                            Actual        Projected

        10



          8



          6


                                                                                              Overall
          4
                                                         Core


          2



          0



         -2
              1980          1985             1990             1995             2000            2005             2010             2015             2020


Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Notes: The overall inflation rate is based on the price index for personal consumption expenditures; the core rate excludes prices for food and energy. Data are quarterly.
Actual data, which are plotted through the second quarter of 2011, incorporate the July 2011 revisions of the national income and product accounts. Projections, which
are plotted through the fourth quarter of 2021, are based on data issued before the revisions.
Crude Oil Prices                                                                     A key reason for the increase in inflation earlier this year was a spike in the

(Dollars per barrel)                                                            price of oil, which rose from an average of about $75 per barrel last summer to
                                                                                more than $110 in late April, partly because of political uncertainty and supply
                                                                                disruptions in the Middle East and North Africa. The benchmark price of crude
                                                                               oil fell back below $100 at the end of June and has declined further since then.
         160


         140


         120


         100


          80


          60


          40


          20


            0
        September            September            September           September            September            September          September            August
           2004                 2005                 2006                2007                 2008                 2009               2010               2011


Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Bloomberg.
Notes: The price shown is the spot price of the West Texas Intermediate grade of crude oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma. Data are prices at the end of each week and are
plotted through August 12, 2011.
Labor Income                                                                                             Labor income has fallen sharply as a share of gross domestic

(Percentage of gross domestic income)                                                              income since 2009—well below its share during most of the past
                                                                                                  30 years. In CBO’s projections, labor income grows faster than GDI
                                                                                                  over the next decade, bringing its share from about 60 percent of
         65
                                                                                                                           GDI in early 2011 to about 61 percent by 2021.

                                                                                                         Actual        Projected
         64


                                                                                     63.2%
                                                                                     2001 Q1
         63                                    62.9%
                                                1992 Q3




         62


                      61.3%
         61            1984 Q4


                                                                60.6%
                                                                1997 Q3

         60
                                                                                               60.0%
                                                                                               2006 Q3

                                                                                                         59.4%
                                                                                                          2010 Q1
         59
              1980           1985            1990            1995             2000             2005           2010             2015            2020


Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Notes: Labor income is defined here as labor compensation plus 65 percent of proprietors’ income. Gross domestic income is the sum of all income earned in the
production of gross domestic product. Data are quarterly. Actual data, which are plotted through the first quarter of 2011, incorporate the July 2011 revisions of the
national income and product accounts. Projections, which are plotted through the fourth quarter of 2021, are based on data issued before the revisions.
Stock Prices                                                                                                              Stock prices, as measured by the value of the

(Index, 1941–1943 = 10)                                                                                                            S&P 500 index, dropped by more than
                                                                                                                        15 percent between early July and mid-August
                                                                                                                               2011, returning to their level of late 2010.


   1,600


   1,400


   1,200


   1,000


     800


     600


     400


     200


         0
       January 2007                  January 2008                  January 2009                  January 2010                  January 2011


Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Bloomberg.
Notes: The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index includes the prices of actively traded common stocks of 500 leading companies in key industries of the U.S. economy.
Data are monthly; the value for August 2011 runs through August 19. The span of each line reflects the high and low index values for that month.

Más contenido relacionado

La actualidad más candente

Use of Tax Incentives for Retirement Saving in 2006
Use of Tax Incentives for Retirement Saving in 2006Use of Tax Incentives for Retirement Saving in 2006
Use of Tax Incentives for Retirement Saving in 2006Congressional Budget Office
 
Raising the Excise Tax on Cigarettes: Effects on Health and the Federal Budget
Raising the Excise Tax on Cigarettes: Effects on Health and the Federal BudgetRaising the Excise Tax on Cigarettes: Effects on Health and the Federal Budget
Raising the Excise Tax on Cigarettes: Effects on Health and the Federal BudgetCongressional Budget Office
 
The 2013 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional Information
The 2013 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional InformationThe 2013 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional Information
The 2013 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional InformationCongressional Budget Office
 
Coverage Effects of Limiting the Tax Exclusion for Employment-Based Health In...
Coverage Effects of Limiting the Tax Exclusion for Employment-Based Health In...Coverage Effects of Limiting the Tax Exclusion for Employment-Based Health In...
Coverage Effects of Limiting the Tax Exclusion for Employment-Based Health In...Congressional Budget Office
 
The Distribution of Federal Spending and Taxes in 2006
The Distribution of Federal Spending and Taxes in 2006The Distribution of Federal Spending and Taxes in 2006
The Distribution of Federal Spending and Taxes in 2006Congressional Budget Office
 
Trends in Operation and Maintenance Spending by the Department of Defense
Trends in Operation and Maintenance Spending by the Department of DefenseTrends in Operation and Maintenance Spending by the Department of Defense
Trends in Operation and Maintenance Spending by the Department of DefenseCongressional Budget Office
 
The 2016 Long-Term Budget Outlook: An Infographic
The 2016 Long-Term Budget Outlook: An InfographicThe 2016 Long-Term Budget Outlook: An Infographic
The 2016 Long-Term Budget Outlook: An InfographicCongressional Budget Office
 
Using Analytic Models and Communicating Their Findings
Using Analytic Models and Communicating Their FindingsUsing Analytic Models and Communicating Their Findings
Using Analytic Models and Communicating Their FindingsCongressional Budget Office
 
The Effects of Recent Legislation on the Economy and the Budget
The Effects of Recent Legislation on the Economy and the BudgetThe Effects of Recent Legislation on the Economy and the Budget
The Effects of Recent Legislation on the Economy and the BudgetCongressional Budget Office
 
Federal Health Care Spending:Why Is It Growing? What Could Be Done About It?
Federal Health Care Spending:Why Is It Growing? What Could Be Done About It?Federal Health Care Spending:Why Is It Growing? What Could Be Done About It?
Federal Health Care Spending:Why Is It Growing? What Could Be Done About It?Congressional Budget Office
 
Presentation on the Distribution of Federal Spending and Taxes in 2006
Presentation on the Distribution of Federal Spending and Taxes in 2006Presentation on the Distribution of Federal Spending and Taxes in 2006
Presentation on the Distribution of Federal Spending and Taxes in 2006Congressional Budget Office
 

La actualidad más candente (20)

Use of Tax Incentives for Retirement Saving in 2006
Use of Tax Incentives for Retirement Saving in 2006Use of Tax Incentives for Retirement Saving in 2006
Use of Tax Incentives for Retirement Saving in 2006
 
Trends in Federal Tax Revenues and Rates
Trends in Federal Tax Revenues and RatesTrends in Federal Tax Revenues and Rates
Trends in Federal Tax Revenues and Rates
 
The Budget Outlook
The Budget OutlookThe Budget Outlook
The Budget Outlook
 
Raising the Excise Tax on Cigarettes: Effects on Health and the Federal Budget
Raising the Excise Tax on Cigarettes: Effects on Health and the Federal BudgetRaising the Excise Tax on Cigarettes: Effects on Health and the Federal Budget
Raising the Excise Tax on Cigarettes: Effects on Health and the Federal Budget
 
Federal Investment
Federal InvestmentFederal Investment
Federal Investment
 
Making Choices About Federal Spending and Taxes
Making Choices About Federal Spending and TaxesMaking Choices About Federal Spending and Taxes
Making Choices About Federal Spending and Taxes
 
The 2013 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional Information
The 2013 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional InformationThe 2013 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional Information
The 2013 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional Information
 
Shifting Priorities in the Federal Budget
Shifting Priorities in the Federal BudgetShifting Priorities in the Federal Budget
Shifting Priorities in the Federal Budget
 
Coverage Effects of Limiting the Tax Exclusion for Employment-Based Health In...
Coverage Effects of Limiting the Tax Exclusion for Employment-Based Health In...Coverage Effects of Limiting the Tax Exclusion for Employment-Based Health In...
Coverage Effects of Limiting the Tax Exclusion for Employment-Based Health In...
 
The Distribution of Federal Spending and Taxes in 2006
The Distribution of Federal Spending and Taxes in 2006The Distribution of Federal Spending and Taxes in 2006
The Distribution of Federal Spending and Taxes in 2006
 
Infographic: The Federal Budget in 2013
Infographic: The Federal Budget in 2013Infographic: The Federal Budget in 2013
Infographic: The Federal Budget in 2013
 
Shifting Priorities in the Federal Budget
Shifting Priorities in the Federal BudgetShifting Priorities in the Federal Budget
Shifting Priorities in the Federal Budget
 
Trends in Operation and Maintenance Spending by the Department of Defense
Trends in Operation and Maintenance Spending by the Department of DefenseTrends in Operation and Maintenance Spending by the Department of Defense
Trends in Operation and Maintenance Spending by the Department of Defense
 
The 2016 Long-Term Budget Outlook: An Infographic
The 2016 Long-Term Budget Outlook: An InfographicThe 2016 Long-Term Budget Outlook: An Infographic
The 2016 Long-Term Budget Outlook: An Infographic
 
Using Analytic Models and Communicating Their Findings
Using Analytic Models and Communicating Their FindingsUsing Analytic Models and Communicating Their Findings
Using Analytic Models and Communicating Their Findings
 
The Effects of Recent Legislation on the Economy and the Budget
The Effects of Recent Legislation on the Economy and the BudgetThe Effects of Recent Legislation on the Economy and the Budget
The Effects of Recent Legislation on the Economy and the Budget
 
Infographic: Discretionary Spending in 2013
Infographic: Discretionary Spending in 2013Infographic: Discretionary Spending in 2013
Infographic: Discretionary Spending in 2013
 
The Federal Budget: Outlook and Challenges
The Federal Budget: Outlook and ChallengesThe Federal Budget: Outlook and Challenges
The Federal Budget: Outlook and Challenges
 
Federal Health Care Spending:Why Is It Growing? What Could Be Done About It?
Federal Health Care Spending:Why Is It Growing? What Could Be Done About It?Federal Health Care Spending:Why Is It Growing? What Could Be Done About It?
Federal Health Care Spending:Why Is It Growing? What Could Be Done About It?
 
Presentation on the Distribution of Federal Spending and Taxes in 2006
Presentation on the Distribution of Federal Spending and Taxes in 2006Presentation on the Distribution of Federal Spending and Taxes in 2006
Presentation on the Distribution of Federal Spending and Taxes in 2006
 

Similar a Charts from CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update

SEB analysis: The pain in Spain
SEB analysis: The pain in SpainSEB analysis: The pain in Spain
SEB analysis: The pain in SpainSEBgroup
 
Nevada's Economy - July2012
Nevada's Economy - July2012Nevada's Economy - July2012
Nevada's Economy - July2012Katie Madanat
 
Augustoutlookslideshowweb 120821164112-phpapp02
Augustoutlookslideshowweb 120821164112-phpapp02Augustoutlookslideshowweb 120821164112-phpapp02
Augustoutlookslideshowweb 120821164112-phpapp02opptecnologia
 
Weekly markets perspectives 12 nov2012
Weekly markets perspectives 12 nov2012Weekly markets perspectives 12 nov2012
Weekly markets perspectives 12 nov2012Fincor Corretora
 
Economic Issues & Residential Real Estate Business Trends Forum 
Economic Issues & Residential Real Estate Business Trends Forum Economic Issues & Residential Real Estate Business Trends Forum 
Economic Issues & Residential Real Estate Business Trends Forum Nar Res
 
CBO’s Long-Term Projections for Medicare and Medicaid Spending in the United ...
CBO’s Long-Term Projections for Medicare and Medicaid Spending in the United ...CBO’s Long-Term Projections for Medicare and Medicaid Spending in the United ...
CBO’s Long-Term Projections for Medicare and Medicaid Spending in the United ...Congressional Budget Office
 
Robert Chote: Public finances and health care
Robert Chote: Public finances and health careRobert Chote: Public finances and health care
Robert Chote: Public finances and health careThe King's Fund
 
IHC -- Health reform: What it means and what's next
IHC -- Health reform: What it means and what's nextIHC -- Health reform: What it means and what's next
IHC -- Health reform: What it means and what's nextGalen Institute
 
Macroeconomy Philippines
Macroeconomy PhilippinesMacroeconomy Philippines
Macroeconomy Philippinesnaojan
 
Wells Fargo 2010 Annual Outlook
Wells Fargo 2010 Annual OutlookWells Fargo 2010 Annual Outlook
Wells Fargo 2010 Annual OutlookTom Cryer
 
Deck 2010 Annual Outlook
Deck 2010 Annual OutlookDeck 2010 Annual Outlook
Deck 2010 Annual OutlookLenderJason
 
AEI State of the Union series: Medicare
AEI State of the Union series: MedicareAEI State of the Union series: Medicare
AEI State of the Union series: MedicareAEI
 
Averting a Fiscal Crisis - Updated 02-12
Averting a Fiscal Crisis - Updated 02-12Averting a Fiscal Crisis - Updated 02-12
Averting a Fiscal Crisis - Updated 02-12CRFB.org
 
Tjif Budget Overview 2011
Tjif Budget Overview 2011Tjif Budget Overview 2011
Tjif Budget Overview 2011Kausar Fecto
 
csx 2008_Citigroup Conference
csx  2008_Citigroup Conferencecsx  2008_Citigroup Conference
csx 2008_Citigroup Conferencefinance27
 
csx 2008_Citigroup Conference
csx  2008_Citigroup Conferencecsx  2008_Citigroup Conference
csx 2008_Citigroup Conferencefinance27
 

Similar a Charts from CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update (20)

SEB analysis: The pain in Spain
SEB analysis: The pain in SpainSEB analysis: The pain in Spain
SEB analysis: The pain in Spain
 
The Federal Budget Outlook and Aid to States
The Federal Budget Outlook and Aid to StatesThe Federal Budget Outlook and Aid to States
The Federal Budget Outlook and Aid to States
 
Nevada's Economy - July2012
Nevada's Economy - July2012Nevada's Economy - July2012
Nevada's Economy - July2012
 
Averting a Fiscal Crisis - Why America Needs Comprehensive Fiscal Reform Now
Averting a Fiscal Crisis - Why America Needs Comprehensive Fiscal Reform NowAverting a Fiscal Crisis - Why America Needs Comprehensive Fiscal Reform Now
Averting a Fiscal Crisis - Why America Needs Comprehensive Fiscal Reform Now
 
Augustoutlookslideshowweb 120821164112-phpapp02
Augustoutlookslideshowweb 120821164112-phpapp02Augustoutlookslideshowweb 120821164112-phpapp02
Augustoutlookslideshowweb 120821164112-phpapp02
 
Weekly markets perspectives 12 nov2012
Weekly markets perspectives 12 nov2012Weekly markets perspectives 12 nov2012
Weekly markets perspectives 12 nov2012
 
Economic Issues & Residential Real Estate Business Trends Forum 
Economic Issues & Residential Real Estate Business Trends Forum Economic Issues & Residential Real Estate Business Trends Forum 
Economic Issues & Residential Real Estate Business Trends Forum 
 
Understanding the Union Budget
Understanding the Union BudgetUnderstanding the Union Budget
Understanding the Union Budget
 
IBM Business Perspective
IBM Business PerspectiveIBM Business Perspective
IBM Business Perspective
 
CBO’s Long-Term Projections for Medicare and Medicaid Spending in the United ...
CBO’s Long-Term Projections for Medicare and Medicaid Spending in the United ...CBO’s Long-Term Projections for Medicare and Medicaid Spending in the United ...
CBO’s Long-Term Projections for Medicare and Medicaid Spending in the United ...
 
Robert Chote: Public finances and health care
Robert Chote: Public finances and health careRobert Chote: Public finances and health care
Robert Chote: Public finances and health care
 
IHC -- Health reform: What it means and what's next
IHC -- Health reform: What it means and what's nextIHC -- Health reform: What it means and what's next
IHC -- Health reform: What it means and what's next
 
Macroeconomy Philippines
Macroeconomy PhilippinesMacroeconomy Philippines
Macroeconomy Philippines
 
Wells Fargo 2010 Annual Outlook
Wells Fargo 2010 Annual OutlookWells Fargo 2010 Annual Outlook
Wells Fargo 2010 Annual Outlook
 
Deck 2010 Annual Outlook
Deck 2010 Annual OutlookDeck 2010 Annual Outlook
Deck 2010 Annual Outlook
 
AEI State of the Union series: Medicare
AEI State of the Union series: MedicareAEI State of the Union series: Medicare
AEI State of the Union series: Medicare
 
Averting a Fiscal Crisis - Updated 02-12
Averting a Fiscal Crisis - Updated 02-12Averting a Fiscal Crisis - Updated 02-12
Averting a Fiscal Crisis - Updated 02-12
 
Tjif Budget Overview 2011
Tjif Budget Overview 2011Tjif Budget Overview 2011
Tjif Budget Overview 2011
 
csx 2008_Citigroup Conference
csx  2008_Citigroup Conferencecsx  2008_Citigroup Conference
csx 2008_Citigroup Conference
 
csx 2008_Citigroup Conference
csx  2008_Citigroup Conferencecsx  2008_Citigroup Conference
csx 2008_Citigroup Conference
 

Más de Congressional Budget Office

CBO’s Work on Health Care and a Call for New Research
CBO’s Work on Health Care and a Call for New ResearchCBO’s Work on Health Care and a Call for New Research
CBO’s Work on Health Care and a Call for New ResearchCongressional Budget Office
 
The Federal Perspective on Coverage of Medications to Treat Obesity: Consider...
The Federal Perspective on Coverage of Medications to Treat Obesity: Consider...The Federal Perspective on Coverage of Medications to Treat Obesity: Consider...
The Federal Perspective on Coverage of Medications to Treat Obesity: Consider...Congressional Budget Office
 
CBO’s Approach to Estimating the Budgetary Effects of the No Surprises Act of...
CBO’s Approach to Estimating the Budgetary Effects of the No Surprises Act of...CBO’s Approach to Estimating the Budgetary Effects of the No Surprises Act of...
CBO’s Approach to Estimating the Budgetary Effects of the No Surprises Act of...Congressional Budget Office
 
The Budget and Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034: Press Briefing Slides
The Budget and Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034: Press Briefing SlidesThe Budget and Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034: Press Briefing Slides
The Budget and Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034: Press Briefing SlidesCongressional Budget Office
 
The Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034 in 19 Slides
The Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034 in 19 SlidesThe Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034 in 19 Slides
The Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034 in 19 SlidesCongressional Budget Office
 
Using Multiple Data Sources to Learn About the Race and Ethnicity of Taxpayers
Using Multiple Data Sources to Learn About the Race and Ethnicity of TaxpayersUsing Multiple Data Sources to Learn About the Race and Ethnicity of Taxpayers
Using Multiple Data Sources to Learn About the Race and Ethnicity of TaxpayersCongressional Budget Office
 
Perspectives on the Navy’s 2024 Shipbuilding Plan
Perspectives on the Navy’s 2024 Shipbuilding PlanPerspectives on the Navy’s 2024 Shipbuilding Plan
Perspectives on the Navy’s 2024 Shipbuilding PlanCongressional Budget Office
 
The 2024 Outlook for Navy Shipbuilding: Familiar Plans and Higher Costs
The 2024 Outlook for Navy Shipbuilding: Familiar Plans and Higher CostsThe 2024 Outlook for Navy Shipbuilding: Familiar Plans and Higher Costs
The 2024 Outlook for Navy Shipbuilding: Familiar Plans and Higher CostsCongressional Budget Office
 
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the BudgetExploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the BudgetCongressional Budget Office
 
CBO’s Role and Most Recent Long-Term Budget Projections
CBO’s Role and Most Recent Long-Term Budget ProjectionsCBO’s Role and Most Recent Long-Term Budget Projections
CBO’s Role and Most Recent Long-Term Budget ProjectionsCongressional Budget Office
 
Approaches to Estimating the Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment
 Approaches to Estimating the Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment Approaches to Estimating the Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment
Approaches to Estimating the Noncyclical Rate of UnemploymentCongressional Budget Office
 
CBO’s Analysis of the Long-Term Budgetary Outlook
CBO’s Analysis of the Long-Term Budgetary OutlookCBO’s Analysis of the Long-Term Budgetary Outlook
CBO’s Analysis of the Long-Term Budgetary OutlookCongressional Budget Office
 
Projecting the Effects of U.S. Federal Policies on Electric Vehicle Demand an...
Projecting the Effects of U.S. Federal Policies on Electric Vehicle Demand an...Projecting the Effects of U.S. Federal Policies on Electric Vehicle Demand an...
Projecting the Effects of U.S. Federal Policies on Electric Vehicle Demand an...Congressional Budget Office
 
CBO’s Recent Appeals for New Research to Enhance Its Work for the Congress
CBO’s Recent Appeals for New Research to Enhance Its Work for the CongressCBO’s Recent Appeals for New Research to Enhance Its Work for the Congress
CBO’s Recent Appeals for New Research to Enhance Its Work for the CongressCongressional Budget Office
 
Trends in the Distribution of Household Income From 1979 to 2020
Trends in the Distribution of Household Income From 1979 to 2020Trends in the Distribution of Household Income From 1979 to 2020
Trends in the Distribution of Household Income From 1979 to 2020Congressional Budget Office
 
The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget OfficeThe Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget OfficeCongressional Budget Office
 

Más de Congressional Budget Office (20)

CBO’s Work on Health Care and a Call for New Research
CBO’s Work on Health Care and a Call for New ResearchCBO’s Work on Health Care and a Call for New Research
CBO’s Work on Health Care and a Call for New Research
 
The Federal Perspective on Coverage of Medications to Treat Obesity: Consider...
The Federal Perspective on Coverage of Medications to Treat Obesity: Consider...The Federal Perspective on Coverage of Medications to Treat Obesity: Consider...
The Federal Perspective on Coverage of Medications to Treat Obesity: Consider...
 
CBO’s Approach to Estimating the Budgetary Effects of the No Surprises Act of...
CBO’s Approach to Estimating the Budgetary Effects of the No Surprises Act of...CBO’s Approach to Estimating the Budgetary Effects of the No Surprises Act of...
CBO’s Approach to Estimating the Budgetary Effects of the No Surprises Act of...
 
The Budget and Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034: Press Briefing Slides
The Budget and Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034: Press Briefing SlidesThe Budget and Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034: Press Briefing Slides
The Budget and Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034: Press Briefing Slides
 
The Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034 in 19 Slides
The Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034 in 19 SlidesThe Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034 in 19 Slides
The Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034 in 19 Slides
 
Using Multiple Data Sources to Learn About the Race and Ethnicity of Taxpayers
Using Multiple Data Sources to Learn About the Race and Ethnicity of TaxpayersUsing Multiple Data Sources to Learn About the Race and Ethnicity of Taxpayers
Using Multiple Data Sources to Learn About the Race and Ethnicity of Taxpayers
 
Perspectives on the Navy’s 2024 Shipbuilding Plan
Perspectives on the Navy’s 2024 Shipbuilding PlanPerspectives on the Navy’s 2024 Shipbuilding Plan
Perspectives on the Navy’s 2024 Shipbuilding Plan
 
The 2024 Outlook for Navy Shipbuilding: Familiar Plans and Higher Costs
The 2024 Outlook for Navy Shipbuilding: Familiar Plans and Higher CostsThe 2024 Outlook for Navy Shipbuilding: Familiar Plans and Higher Costs
The 2024 Outlook for Navy Shipbuilding: Familiar Plans and Higher Costs
 
CBO’s Use of GitHub
CBO’s Use of GitHubCBO’s Use of GitHub
CBO’s Use of GitHub
 
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the BudgetExploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget
 
CBO’s Role and Most Recent Long-Term Budget Projections
CBO’s Role and Most Recent Long-Term Budget ProjectionsCBO’s Role and Most Recent Long-Term Budget Projections
CBO’s Role and Most Recent Long-Term Budget Projections
 
Atlas of Military Compensation
Atlas of Military CompensationAtlas of Military Compensation
Atlas of Military Compensation
 
Approaches to Estimating the Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment
 Approaches to Estimating the Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment Approaches to Estimating the Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment
Approaches to Estimating the Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment
 
CBO’s Analysis of the Long-Term Budgetary Outlook
CBO’s Analysis of the Long-Term Budgetary OutlookCBO’s Analysis of the Long-Term Budgetary Outlook
CBO’s Analysis of the Long-Term Budgetary Outlook
 
Projecting the Effects of U.S. Federal Policies on Electric Vehicle Demand an...
Projecting the Effects of U.S. Federal Policies on Electric Vehicle Demand an...Projecting the Effects of U.S. Federal Policies on Electric Vehicle Demand an...
Projecting the Effects of U.S. Federal Policies on Electric Vehicle Demand an...
 
CBO’s Recent Appeals for New Research to Enhance Its Work for the Congress
CBO’s Recent Appeals for New Research to Enhance Its Work for the CongressCBO’s Recent Appeals for New Research to Enhance Its Work for the Congress
CBO’s Recent Appeals for New Research to Enhance Its Work for the Congress
 
Trends in the Distribution of Household Income From 1979 to 2020
Trends in the Distribution of Household Income From 1979 to 2020Trends in the Distribution of Household Income From 1979 to 2020
Trends in the Distribution of Household Income From 1979 to 2020
 
The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget OfficeThe Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
 
Health Care and the Federal Budget
Health Care and the Federal Budget Health Care and the Federal Budget
Health Care and the Federal Budget
 
How CBO Projects Corporate Income Tax Revenues
How CBO Projects Corporate Income Tax RevenuesHow CBO Projects Corporate Income Tax Revenues
How CBO Projects Corporate Income Tax Revenues
 

Último

Light Rail in Canberra: Too much, too little, too late: Is the price worth th...
Light Rail in Canberra: Too much, too little, too late: Is the price worth th...Light Rail in Canberra: Too much, too little, too late: Is the price worth th...
Light Rail in Canberra: Too much, too little, too late: Is the price worth th...University of Canberra
 
Européennes 2024 : projection du Parlement européen à trois mois du scrutin
Européennes 2024 : projection du Parlement européen à trois mois du scrutinEuropéennes 2024 : projection du Parlement européen à trois mois du scrutin
Européennes 2024 : projection du Parlement européen à trois mois du scrutinIpsos France
 
One India vs United India by Dream Tamilnadu
One India vs United India by Dream TamilnaduOne India vs United India by Dream Tamilnadu
One India vs United India by Dream TamilnaduDreamTamilnadu
 
19032024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
19032024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf19032024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
19032024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
 
Green Aesthetic Ripped Paper Thesis Defense Presentation_20240311_111012_0000...
Green Aesthetic Ripped Paper Thesis Defense Presentation_20240311_111012_0000...Green Aesthetic Ripped Paper Thesis Defense Presentation_20240311_111012_0000...
Green Aesthetic Ripped Paper Thesis Defense Presentation_20240311_111012_0000...virgfern3011
 
Ministry of Justice Extradition Eswatini 3.pdf
Ministry of Justice Extradition Eswatini 3.pdfMinistry of Justice Extradition Eswatini 3.pdf
Ministry of Justice Extradition Eswatini 3.pdfSABC News
 
Another Day, Another Default Judgment Against Gabe Whitley
Another Day, Another Default Judgment Against Gabe WhitleyAnother Day, Another Default Judgment Against Gabe Whitley
Another Day, Another Default Judgment Against Gabe WhitleyAbdul-Hakim Shabazz
 
Anantkumar Hegde
Anantkumar Hegde  Anantkumar Hegde
Anantkumar Hegde NewsFeed1
 
Por estos dos motivos, defensa de JOH solicita repetir juicio
Por estos dos motivos, defensa de JOH solicita repetir juicioPor estos dos motivos, defensa de JOH solicita repetir juicio
Por estos dos motivos, defensa de JOH solicita repetir juicioAlexisTorres963861
 

Último (9)

Light Rail in Canberra: Too much, too little, too late: Is the price worth th...
Light Rail in Canberra: Too much, too little, too late: Is the price worth th...Light Rail in Canberra: Too much, too little, too late: Is the price worth th...
Light Rail in Canberra: Too much, too little, too late: Is the price worth th...
 
Européennes 2024 : projection du Parlement européen à trois mois du scrutin
Européennes 2024 : projection du Parlement européen à trois mois du scrutinEuropéennes 2024 : projection du Parlement européen à trois mois du scrutin
Européennes 2024 : projection du Parlement européen à trois mois du scrutin
 
One India vs United India by Dream Tamilnadu
One India vs United India by Dream TamilnaduOne India vs United India by Dream Tamilnadu
One India vs United India by Dream Tamilnadu
 
19032024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
19032024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf19032024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
19032024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
 
Green Aesthetic Ripped Paper Thesis Defense Presentation_20240311_111012_0000...
Green Aesthetic Ripped Paper Thesis Defense Presentation_20240311_111012_0000...Green Aesthetic Ripped Paper Thesis Defense Presentation_20240311_111012_0000...
Green Aesthetic Ripped Paper Thesis Defense Presentation_20240311_111012_0000...
 
Ministry of Justice Extradition Eswatini 3.pdf
Ministry of Justice Extradition Eswatini 3.pdfMinistry of Justice Extradition Eswatini 3.pdf
Ministry of Justice Extradition Eswatini 3.pdf
 
Another Day, Another Default Judgment Against Gabe Whitley
Another Day, Another Default Judgment Against Gabe WhitleyAnother Day, Another Default Judgment Against Gabe Whitley
Another Day, Another Default Judgment Against Gabe Whitley
 
Anantkumar Hegde
Anantkumar Hegde  Anantkumar Hegde
Anantkumar Hegde
 
Por estos dos motivos, defensa de JOH solicita repetir juicio
Por estos dos motivos, defensa de JOH solicita repetir juicioPor estos dos motivos, defensa de JOH solicita repetir juicio
Por estos dos motivos, defensa de JOH solicita repetir juicio
 

Charts from CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update

  • 1. Deficit Assuming Continuation of Certain Policies Under CBO’s baseline assumptions, deficits would drop from 8.5 percent of (Percentage of GDP) GDP this year to 1.2 percent of GDP in 2021. However, deficits would not fall as far if certain policies were continued. CBO estimates that the deficit would be 4.7 percent of GDP if those policies remained in place. 10 8.5% 8 6.4% 6 4.8% 4.5% 4.7% 4.0% 3.9% 4.3% 4 3.8% 3.5% 3.9% 2 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Baseline Extend Tax Policies Maintain Medicare’s Payment Additional Debt Service Rates for Physicians Source: Congressional Budget Office. Note: “Extend Tax Policies” reflects the following policy assumptions: Most of the provisions in the 2010 tax act that were originally enacted in 2001, 2003, 2009, and 2010 are extended (instead of being allowed to expire on December 31, 2012, as scheduled), and the alternative minimum tax is indexed for inflation. “Maintain Medicare’s payment Rates for Physicians” involves preventing the nearly 30 percent reduction in Medicare’s payment rates for physicians’ services that is scheduled to take e ect at the end of 2011. “Additional Debt Service” is the amount of interest payments on the additional debt issued to the public that would result from the continuation of the specified policies.
  • 2. Federal Debt Held by the Public With modest deficits projected for the latter part of the 2012–2021 period under CBO’s current-law baseline, debt held by (Percentage of GDP) the public recedes as a percentage of GDP. However, if certain provisions that are part of current law did not expire as scheduled, 120 debt held by the public would rise to 82 percent of GDP by the end of 2021, which would be the highest level since 1948. Actual Projected 100 Continuation of 80 Certain Policies 60 CBO’s Baseline 40 20 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: Congressional Budget Office. Note: The projected debt with the continuation of certain policies is based on several assumptions: rst, that most of the provisions of the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010 that originally were enacted in 2001, 2003, 2009, and 2010 do not expire on December 31, 2012, but instead continue; second, that the alternative minimum tax is indexed for inflation after 2011; and third, that Medicare’s payment rates for physicians are held constant at their 2011 level. Shaded bars indicate periods of recession.
  • 3. Total Deficits or Surpluses If some of the changes specified in current law did not occur and certain (Percentage of GDP) current policies were continued instead, then annual deficits from 2012 through 2021 would be much higher—averaging 4.3 percent of GDP, compared with 1.8 percent in CBO’s baseline projections. 4 2.4% 2 2000 Actual Projected 0 CBO’s Baseline -2 -4 Continuation of -3.5% Certain Policies -4.2% 2004 1976 -4.7% -6 1992 -6.0% 1983 -8 -10 -10.0% 2009 -12 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 Source: Congressional Budget Office. Note: The projected deficit with the continuation of certain policies is based on several assumptions: rst, that most of the provisions of the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010 that originally were enacted in 2001, 2003, 2009, and 2010 do not expire on December 31, 2012, but instead continue; second, that the alternative minimum tax is indexed for inflation after 2011; and third, that Medicare’s payment rates for physicians are held constant at their 2011 level.
  • 4. Total Discretionary Budget If discretionary budget authority was allowed to grow at the rate of inflation, without the constraint on nonwar funding Authority Excluding War Funding imposed by the caps established in the Budget Control Act, (Percentage of GDP) that budget authority would be about 4 percent higher in 2012 and 8 percent higher in 2021. 12 Actual Projected 10 8 Funding for 2011 Adjusted for Inflationa 6 CBO’s Baselineb 4 2 0 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 Source: Congressional Budget Office. a Data reflect the assumption that discretionary funding related to federal personnel is inflated using the employment cost index for wages and salaries. All other discretionary funding is adjusted using the gross domestic product price index. b When constructing its baseline, CBO assumes that discretionary funding will adhere to the statutory caps recently enacted into law by the Budget Control Act of 2011.
  • 5. Real Gross Domestic Product CBO expects that the economic recovery will (Trillions of 2005 dollars, logarithmic scale) continue but that real (inflation-adjusted) GDP will stay below the economy’s potential—a level that corresponds to a high rate of use of labor and capital—until 2017. 19 Actual Projected 18 17 Potential GDP 16 15 14 GDP 13 12 11 10 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2020 Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Notes: Real gross domestic product is the output of the economy adjusted to remove the e ects of inflation. Potential GDP is CBO’s estimate of the output that the economy would produce with a high rate of use of its labor and capital resources. Data are quarterly. Actual data for GDP, which are plotted through the second quarter of 2011, incorporate the July 2011 revisions of the national income and product accounts. Projections of GDP, which are plotted through the fourth quarter of 2021, are based on data issued before the revisions. Shaded bars indicate periods of recession.
  • 6. Ratio of GDP to Potential GDP CBO projects that GDP will grow considerably (Percent) faster than potential GDP between 2013 and 2016. That growth will bring the economy to a high rate of resource use—completely closing the gap between the economy’s actual and 4 potential output—by 2017. 2 Actual Projected 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Notes: Real gross domestic product is the output of the economy adjusted to remove the e ects of inflation. Potential GDP is CBO’s estimate of the output that the economy would produce with a high rate of use of its labor and capital resources. Data are quarterly. Actual data for GDP, which are plotted through the second quarter of 2011, incorporate the July 2011 revisions of the national income and product accounts. Projections of GDP, which are plotted through the fourth quarter of 2021, are based on data issued before the revisions.
  • 7. Unemployment Rate With the projection of modest growth in output, CBO expects (Percent) employment to expand slowly during the rest of this year and next year. The unemployment rate is projected to fall from an average of 9.1 percent in the second quarter of 2011 to 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 and to 8.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012. 12 Actual Projected 10 8 6 4 2 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Notes: The unemployment rate is a measure of the number of jobless people who are available for work and are actively seeking jobs, expressed as a percentage of the labor force. Data are quarterly. Actual data are plotted through the second quarter of 2011; projections are plotted through the fourth quarter of 2021.
  • 8. Interest Rates Consistent with its forecast of modest economic (Percent) growth through 2013 under current law, CBO projects that interest rates will remain very low for the next few years and then rise to more-normal levels as output approaches its potential in 2017. 16 Actual Projected 14 12 11.1% 10 8.6% 8 8.4% 6.0% 6 5.9% 5.3% 5.8% 10-Year Treasury Notes 4 5.8% 3.3% 3-Month Treasury Bills 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2 1.0% 0.1% 0 1983 1987 1993 2000 2003 2011 2017 Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Federal Reserve. Notes: Data are annual. Actual data are plotted through 2010; projections are plotted through 2021.
  • 9. House Prices House prices are nearing the end of their decline, in (Index, 1991 = 100) CBO’s estimation. But they probably will not begin a sustained increase until the second half of 2012, when CBO expects there to be fewer foreclosures and distressed sales. CBO projects that by the end of 2013, house prices as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller 300 index will be back to 2003 levels. 250 Actual Projected 200 150 100 50 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Financial Services. Notes: The S&P/Case-Shiller national home price index tracks the prices of home sales financed using mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac as well as sales financed with mortgages that do not conform to the size or credit criteria for purchase by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Values shown are annual averages of quarterly data. Actual data are plotted through 2010; projections are plotted through 2021.
  • 10. Vacant Housing Units The recovery of the housing market is likely to be slowed by the fact that an unusually large percentage of housing units are now vacant. That percentage, (Percentage of total units) which was already high before the 2007–2009 recession because of overbuilding during the housing boom, partly reflects the large number of foreclosures and continued slow pace of household formation since the end of the recession. 15 14.3% 14 13 12.7% 12 11.8% 11.6% 11.2% 11.2% 11.0% 11 10.4% 10.5% 10.0% 10 9 8 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Census Bureau. Notes: Housing units comprise occupied units and vacant units, including units intended for year-round use and seasonal units. Values are annual averages of quarterly data.
  • 11. Net Business Fixed Investment Investment by businesses declined sharply during the recession, and although it picked up a bit relative to GDP in (Percentage of GDP) 2010, it remained well below its long-run historical average. The growth in GDP that CBO has projected for the near term will encourage businesses to boost net fixed investment to 5 Actual meet increases in demand for their products. 4.6% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 4.1% 4 Projected 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3 2.7% 2.3% 2.4% 2 1 1.0% 0 1980 1985 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1950 Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Notes: Business fixed investment consists of businesses’ spending on nonresidential structures, equipment, and software. It is shown here net of depreciation. Data are annual. Actual data incorporate the July 2011 revisions to the national income and product accounts; projections are based on data issued before the revisions.
  • 12. Exchange Value of the U.S. Dollar The trade-weighted exchange value of the dollar declined for most of the past decade, as foreign (Index, March 1973 = 100) investors became less willing to keep adding to their increasingly large holdings of U.S. dollar assets. 130 CBO expects that decline to continue at a moderate pace, on average, over the next 10 years. 120 110 100 90 80 70 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Federal Reserve. Notes: This index is an average of the U.S. dollar’s exchange value against the currencies of a large group of major U.S. trading partners, adjusted for inflation and weighted by the amount of trade the United States conducts with each of those countries. The index weights change over time. Data are monthly and are plotted through July 2011. Tan lines represent a year’s worth of values; light blue bars represent the annual average.
  • 13. Net Job Growth per Month Labor market conditions deteriorated (Thousands of jobs) dramatically during the recent recession, and despite a modest recovery in job growth beginning in early 2010, employment remains 400 well below its prerecession level. 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1,000 January July January July January July January July January July 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Notes: Data are monthly and are plotted through July 2011. They exclude temporary jobs associated with the 2010 census.
  • 14. Labor Force Participation Rate The labor force participation rate has fallen significantly in the past decade. Although economic (Percent) recovery will increase the demand for labor, CBO expects that rate to continue to decline as the aging of the baby boomers and tax increases scheduled under current law prompt more people to leave the labor force. 1970 60.4% 1980 63.8% 1990 66.5% 2000 67.1% 2010 64.7% 2020 63.0% 55% 60% 65% Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Notes: The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the civilian noninstitutionalized population age 16 or older that is either working or actively looking for work. Values are annual averages of quarterly data.
  • 15. Unemployed Workers per Job Opening The number of unemployed workers per job opening averaged about 4½ in the first half of 2011—down (Number) from an average of more than 6 in 2009 but still much higher than before the recent recession. 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Notes: Data are monthly and are plotted through June 2011. Shaded bars indicate periods of recession.
  • 16. Inflation Although inflation increased in the first half of 2011, CBO projects that it will recede somewhat (Percentage change in prices from previous year) in the second half and that prices will rise at a subdued pace over the next few years. 12 Actual Projected 10 8 6 Overall 4 Core 2 0 -2 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Notes: The overall inflation rate is based on the price index for personal consumption expenditures; the core rate excludes prices for food and energy. Data are quarterly. Actual data, which are plotted through the second quarter of 2011, incorporate the July 2011 revisions of the national income and product accounts. Projections, which are plotted through the fourth quarter of 2021, are based on data issued before the revisions.
  • 17. Crude Oil Prices A key reason for the increase in inflation earlier this year was a spike in the (Dollars per barrel) price of oil, which rose from an average of about $75 per barrel last summer to more than $110 in late April, partly because of political uncertainty and supply disruptions in the Middle East and North Africa. The benchmark price of crude oil fell back below $100 at the end of June and has declined further since then. 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 September September September September September September September August 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Bloomberg. Notes: The price shown is the spot price of the West Texas Intermediate grade of crude oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma. Data are prices at the end of each week and are plotted through August 12, 2011.
  • 18. Labor Income Labor income has fallen sharply as a share of gross domestic (Percentage of gross domestic income) income since 2009—well below its share during most of the past 30 years. In CBO’s projections, labor income grows faster than GDI over the next decade, bringing its share from about 60 percent of 65 GDI in early 2011 to about 61 percent by 2021. Actual Projected 64 63.2% 2001 Q1 63 62.9% 1992 Q3 62 61.3% 61 1984 Q4 60.6% 1997 Q3 60 60.0% 2006 Q3 59.4% 2010 Q1 59 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Notes: Labor income is defined here as labor compensation plus 65 percent of proprietors’ income. Gross domestic income is the sum of all income earned in the production of gross domestic product. Data are quarterly. Actual data, which are plotted through the first quarter of 2011, incorporate the July 2011 revisions of the national income and product accounts. Projections, which are plotted through the fourth quarter of 2021, are based on data issued before the revisions.
  • 19. Stock Prices Stock prices, as measured by the value of the (Index, 1941–1943 = 10) S&P 500 index, dropped by more than 15 percent between early July and mid-August 2011, returning to their level of late 2010. 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 January 2007 January 2008 January 2009 January 2010 January 2011 Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Bloomberg. Notes: The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index includes the prices of actively traded common stocks of 500 leading companies in key industries of the U.S. economy. Data are monthly; the value for August 2011 runs through August 19. The span of each line reflects the high and low index values for that month.