Reflections on role of science in communication, innovation, and transition to low Carbon, Professor John Harries, Chief Scientific Adviser for Wales

1. Science Strategy
Science for Wales :
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With guidelines for corporate presentations
Reflections on role of science in
communication, innovation, and transition to
low C
Professor John Harries,
Chief Scientific Adviser for Wales,
and
Professor of Earth Observation,
Blackett Laboratory,
Imperial College,
London
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2. Two key themes:
-The role of science in communication and engagement on climate
change;
-The role of science strategy in innovation and transition to the low
carbon economy.
Corporate slide master
With guidelines for corporate presentations
Contents
1. What has the Welsh Government Science for Wales strategy actually
produced? What is the implementation plan, Sêr Cymru?
2. Role of science in climate science communications. and engagement.
3. Role of science strategy in innovation and transition to the low carbon
economy.
4. A real example!
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3. 1. Science for Wales: A new science strategy for Wales
Major changes!
2010 saw the first Chief Scientific Adviser for Wales (CSAW), and
appointment of the Science Advisory Council for Wales (SACW).
First major task for CSAW, with Council, has been to write new Science
Strategy for Wales. Many visits, discussions, consultations, across whole of
Wales, over 18 months. Possibly the most thorough review of facts on
science in Wales.
SACW fully engaged with some fascinating and penetrating discussions, and
strong guidance to the CSAW.
Diolch yn
fawr!
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4. Cabinet February, July 2011; stakeholders autumn 2011, Cabinet approval
6 December 2011. FM Launch 12 March 2012.
The new structure, and strategy development
First Minister for BETS Survey of
Survey of
Minister University
third sector
and Science
Cabinet Office of
the Chief
Scientific Survey of
Adviser for Companies’
Wales R&D
Survey of
National
Assets:
Science National Museums,
Advisory Gardens,
Council Libraries
for Wales Survey of
Welsh
Government
procedures
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Community Networks

5. Science for Wales: The strengths, weaknesses and
‘Grand Challenges’ of Welsh science
• A good deal of research in Wales is excellent, some is truly world class;
• Focus on our strengths and prioritise.
• BUT, should do better (3.3% against 5%:);
• Increase inward investment (facilities, institutes,
research Grants, companies, ...);
• Work with RCs, serve on committees, boards,
be involved;
• Vital educational base;
• Need to plan towards innovation and application,
because economy, quality jobs are the aim;
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6. The strengths and ‘Grand Challenges’ of Welsh science
‘Grand Challenges’ Current strengths Future theme
Wales as an advanced health and life
sciences country. An innovative,
Medical technology (especially in evidence- based health and social
vitro diagnostics) neuroscience,
care system for Wales, based on an
Life and Health sciences wound healing, health informatics
and human nutrition, crop breeding integrated health and social care
and food security. database, and on an excellent life
sciences R&D foundation.
Wales as a green laboratory (Wales
Environment, energy & Climate change, environment, crops,
led the world into fossil fuel, and will
low carbon forestry and low carbon
lead the world out)
Developing innovations and
technology for the 21st century,
Advanced engineering & From nano- to large-scale, materials
applied to challenges in environment,
materials and machines
aerospace, manufacturing, health and
materials.
Education and STEM outreach activity: Enhancing the value, the take-up, and confidence and trust in science for
the people of Wales.
Digital economy - e-infrastructure, high performance computing (HPC) programmes and all aspects of digital
content
Intellectual Property: ensuring the nation, both public and private, benefits from science investments
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Blue skies research: Allowing for new ideas, concepts and theories that will feed future R&D and innovations

7. . What is the implementation plan? Sêr Cymru
Sêr Attract international
Cymru “stars”, provide kit, support
staff, in priority areas, to
Initial augment existing
funding excellence, provide more
From WG leadership
£50M over Set up National Research
5years. Networks, with Director, to
oversee preparation, negotiation,
Augmented of bids, through to selection and
by implementation.
Universities,
by WEFO, Sêr Cymru named chairs; Prizes;
by others? Eminent lectures; links to industry and
commerce; national conference....
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8. 2. Role of science in climate science communications
and engagement
- Understanding; facts;
- Objectivity: Avoidance of spin or cherry-picking: awkward
facts from a piece of work cannot be ignored, while
accepting others.
- The Climate system is amazingly , and beautifully complex:
represent complex ideas in accessible way; example is of
forcing and feedback processes (example);
- Understanding true meaning of error and uncertainty,
predictability and chaotic systems (example).
- Combining good physical science with good social science
and good policy making.
- STEM engagement;
- Popularisation, but not dumbing-down to triviality
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9. Terrestrial Energy Budget: feedbacks and forcings
Feedback loops, eg:
Other hydrological cycle,
Forcings,eg: circulation patterns,
Direct increase
in A (and cloud cover & type
smaller
increase in g) delayed
SW LW responses
due to volcano
(S = ITS/4
1370/4 S (1 – A) = (1 – g) TS4 + p1 + p2 + …
= 342 Wm-2)
greenhouse
forcing Delay due to slow
feedback processes:
Measures of the SW, LW and FN (= p eg. deep ocean
i
i
Measurement of spectrally
) fluxes give information on greenhouse warming
resolved radiances can make
forcing, cloud and water vapour
feedback…..i.e. on climate processes and these relations highly specific
climate change to processes 9

10. 3. Role of science strategy in innovation and
transition to the low carbon economy.
- Research produces new ideas, processes,
techniques, skilled and imaginative people;
- Science must be excellent, and well connected
to innovation processes;
- Balance between fundamental science, theory,
observation, application to real world,
modeling, prediction must be maintained;
- Science and Innovation must feedback on
each other;
- In Wales, Science strategy and Innovation
Strategy are being produced in close co-operation.
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11. 4. A real example!
• Consider the energy balance of planet Earth, recognising that
energy is entering and leaving the Earth at all electromagnetic
wavelengths.
• Design a spectrometer to fly in space and to measure energy
leaving the Earth, at all wavelengths.
• Build it, test it, calibrate it, launch it on a very large can of
explosive materials (a rocket), test its working via a complex
communications/tracking system, then measure Earth’s heat (IR)
spectrum over many years.
• Compare well-calibrated spectra in 1970 with spectra for same
place, local time, season, say in 1997.
• Is there a difference? If climate is changing there must be!

12. Detection of changes in
forcing of climate in
observed Earth spectra
Uncertainty..natural
variability...long term
trends?
Nature, March 2001
Measurements of observed
spectra over central Pacific in
1970 and 1997 show changes
in greenhouse forcing. Used
NASA IRIS (1970) and NASDA
IMG (1997) spectra.
NASA Langley: Distinguished Public
15 November 2011 Service Medal award 12

13. There are clear signals of
changes in CO2, CH4, etc.,
but also T/H2O mixing.
Pure What is the uncertainty?
rotation
H2O
2 H2O
CFCl3 O3
(highly
Fig 3
variable) CH4
CO2
NASA Langley: Distinguished Public
16 December 2008 CAVIAR Annual Meeting 2008 13
15 November 2011 Service Medal award 13

14. The way forward
• Strong WG support for strengthening Welsh science base, and for
using this strength to inform our people on several difficult
problems, including climate;
• WG providing significant new money to kick-start new programme
of Sêr Cymru...leveraging also possible;
• Wales should be able to win a „par‟ success rate from the UK RCs
and other competitive, peer reviewed, funders, OR BETTER.
Raising to par would mean £27M - £ 64M more pa.
• Focus will be on our strengths and our three priorities, Advanced
engineering & materials, Health and Life sciences, and
Environment, energy & low carbon, plus the 4 underpinning
themes.
• Priorities have been selected in basis of (a) excellence, (b)
strengths, and (c) closeness to innovation pipeline.
• Welsh Government is looking for us, the science and engineering
community, to respond positively to this new initiative: success will
breed success. 14

15. END
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16. Harries and Belotti, J
Clim., 23, 1277-1290
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17. Broadband satellite measurements of ERB
SW
We are interested in the energy balance of the Earth,
LW
between:
(a)Shortwave (SW) absorbed solar radiation; and
(b)Longwave (LW) emitted infrared radiation
From CERES project.
Data rather blurry: monthly
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averages
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18. END
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23. 1. Science for Wales: The strengths, weaknesses and
‘Grand Challenges’ of Welsh science
• A good deal of research in Wales is excellent, some is truly world class;
• RAE 2008 found 49% rated 3*+4*, 14% rated 4*; numerous peaks;
• Very good citations;
• But we need more!
• Focus on our strengths and priorities;
• Focus on excellence as first criterion;
• Advertise our successes more, but avoid
hyperbole!
• BUT, should do better (3.3% against 5%:);
• 1.7% of RC income is worth £27M each year:
• From all sources, worth £64M each year .
• Scotland winning almost 2x “pro-rata”;
• Wales winning about 0.6 x “pro rata” ;
• England wins about 1 x “pro rata”, because
they have 85% of the resources.
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24. Science for Wales: A new science strategy for Wales
Cabinet highly supportive, involved
in several discussions, endorsed
the direction of travel, and adopted
Science for Wales as the
Strategy of the Welsh Government,
on 6 December 2011.
Science for Wales was formally
launched by First Minister of Wales,
Rt Hon Carwyn Jones, AM ,
yesterday, 12 March 2012.
Provides a direction for science,
technology, engineering,
mathematics, and other “sciences”,
and for future
innovation strategies.
27http://wales.gov.uk/topics/businessandeconomy/csaw/pub
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