1. What future for Riverina irrigation
communities?
Craig Clifton, Dhakshy Sooriyakumaran, Nick Schofield
& Stephen Joyce

2. Project overview
Objective: Assist Riverina irrigation communities plan for a
future with less water
Three stages:
1. Current socio-economic
status of region &
influence of recent change
2. Assess risks and
opportunities associated
with the future
3. Plan for sustainable
communities and economy

3. Project overview
Stage 2: What may the future hold for Riverina irrigation
communities?
Three stages:
1. Current socio-economic • Identify key trends & drivers
status of region & of change
influence of recent change • Develop scenarios to
2. Assess risks and describe how the future
opportunities associated may unfold
with the future • Assess future risks and
3. Plan for sustainable opportunities
communities and economy

4. Riverina: a major Australian
agricultural, food & beverage production
region
Production Processing
Dryland Cereals $355 M $197 M
cropping Rice $121 M
Vegetables $67 M
Fruit $199 M $127 M
Livestock Citrus $75 M
grazing
Wine grapes $110 M $400 M
Livestock
Livestock $210 M
Irrigation Meat $319 M
Total $840 M $1041 M
Sources: ABS data; AEC 2010
Sources: BRS data; SKM 2010

5. The community & economy are highly
dependent on agriculture
Employment Economic value add
Carrathool
Carrathool
Economic value add Carrathool
Economic value add
Employment (#EFT)
Griffith
Griffith
Griffith
Agriculture
Food & beverage manufacturing
Water
Services to agriculture
Other
Sources: ABS data; AEC 2010; SKM, 2010

6. Key trends: the Big Dry
100%
80%
60%
40%
2001-2003 2004-2006
20%
0%
2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09
Lachlan River HS Lachlan River GS
Murrumbidgee River HS Murrumbidgee River GS
2007-2009
Rainfall anomaly Irrigation allocations
Sources: BoM data, NSW Office of Water data; SKM 2010

7. Key trends: agriculture & food production
$1,000 Carathool
Change in value of production 2005-06
Millions
$350
to 2009-10 due to drought
Value of agricultural commodities
$300
$800
$250
$200
Industry Change in value
$600 $150
of output ($M)
$100 Sheep -$10.4
$400
$50 Grains -$112.6
$- Beef cattle -$5.9
2000-01 2005-06
Other agriculture +$0.1
$200
Griffith Services to agriculture +$3.5
Griffith $350
Milling products & cereal -$98.3
$- $300
2000-01 2005-06
foods
$250
Intensive animal
$200
Citrus, grapes & other fruit No change
Dryland
$150
Wine & other beverages No change
Nurseries
Irrig-fruit
$100 Total -$223.6
Irrig-vegetables $50
Irrig-crops $-
2000-01 2005-06
2005-06
Sources: ABS data, AEC 2010; SKM 2010

8. Key trends: population & employment
Population The Big Dry Employment
50,000
Agriculture
Region 2006
Manufacturing
40,000
Retail trade
2001 Health services
30,000
Education
Griffith
Construction
1996
20,000 All others
8,000
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
6,000 Narrandera Employment losses 2005-06 to 2009-10
• Agriculture – 588 jobs
4,000 Carrathool • Other sectors (direct/indirect) – 1231
jobs
2,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

9. Drivers of change
International-global scale State-MDB-national scale Local-regional scale
 Climate:  Water:  Confidence in region’s
• Natural variability • Catchment inflows & future
• Human-induced change storage volumes  Entrepreneurial spirit –
 Health of global economy • Planning & management community leadership
• Demand & price for food, • Infrastructure
 Technological &
fibre & minerals • Policy, politics & public
management innovation
• Currency exchange rates perceptions
• Cost of key agricultural • Market operation in key industries
inputs  Population growth in  Regional development
• Trade freedom/distortion major cities investment
 Global population growth • Congestion  Retention & attraction of
 Global food supply & • Housing affordability population
security  Strength of Australian
 Technology: mining sector
• ICT  Interest rates
• Food production  Government investment
• Energy into regions
 ICT infrastructure &
services

10. Drivers of change
International-global scale State-MDB-national scale Local-regional scale
 Climate:  Water:  Confidence in region’s
• Natural variability • Catchment inflows & future
• Human-induced change storage volumes  Entrepreneurial spirit –
 Health of global economy • Planning & management community leadership
• Demand & price for food, • Infrastructure
 Technological &
fibre & minerals • Policy, politics & public
management innovation
• Currency exchange rates perceptions
• Cost of key agricultural • Market operation in key industries
inputs  Population growth in  Regional development
• Trade freedom/distortion major cities investment
 Global population growth • Congestion  Retention & attraction of
 Global food supply & • Housing affordability population
security  Strength of Australian
 Technology: mining sector
• ICT  Interest rates
• Food production  Government investment
• Energy into regions
 ICT infrastructure &
services

11. What might the future hold?
Some alternative futures
Better water
outcomes
2010 2030
Scenarios incorporate:
• Critical uncertainties – climate &
water policy
• Other regional-global scale Worse water
change drivers outcomes
• Shocks
Plausibility tested with stakeholders Scenarios preceded Guide to MDBP

12. Risks and opportunities
Key risks Key opportunities
• A quick step back into Big Dry – • Adapted, more efficient agriculture
like conditions • Increase regional value add to
• Run-away water trade from agriculture
region • Biofuels & solar energy
• MDBP implements large • Education, training & health care
reduction in SDL • Affordability options for new
Potential implications: industries and residents
• Tourism
• Rapid population decline
• Workforce contraction
Options mostly not unique to Riverina
• Divestment by businesses
region
• Smaller local governments
become unviable

13. Conclusions:
What future for Riverina irrigation communities?
• The region will remain highly dependent on agriculture,
including irrigated agriculture
• High reliability Murrumbidgee high security water &
groundwater critical to region’s future
• The region will continue to track agriculture’s fortunes and
misfortunes
• Griffith will continue to growth while the smaller towns &
LGAs continue to decline
• The region will continue to invest in economic diversification -
with limited success particularly away from Griffith
& Leeton

14. What future for Riverina irrigation communities?
Some critical uncertainties:
• Murray-Darling Basin Plan
• Future climate – next few years & long-term
• The demand & price for the region’s agricultural & food
products
• Confidence in the region’s future
• Community leadership & entrepreneurial spirit
A future with less water is not where the Riverina irrigation
communities want to be